Screw "The Plan"; This year is "The Switch"

[Mediator12]

With all the Hype and movement this offseason it may be easy for most people around here to miss the the Major differences in the Offseason approach this year. Fiscal responsibility has been the difference. No longer is the Front Office going with the "WIN now at any cost approach." They seem to have taken on a more "balanced Risk/Reward and Opportunity Cost method."

1. No huge FA investments to yield the two players away mentality that came up after the INDY loss. This includes possibly overpaying for Reggie Hayward and Kennoy Kennedy on their own roster. Every other Offseason since the SB runs the Broncos have gone after high profile FA's and Retreads. This year they Switched their acquisition strategy to finding lower risk/higher reward types. No HUGE investments, except for Gold and that has been talked about enough, and Flexibility for the future.

2. Dropping out of the first round of a weak draft for the first time in Shanahan's tenure. Acquiring two first round picks for NEXT year for the first time in Shanahan's tenure. The decision to not pay second round talent a first round contract is a new concept around here. The extra draft picks are pure bonus and Hopefully without a first round player the team switches to a value approach over a Project approach in this years draft as well.

3. Getting Pryce to restructure his deal when he wanted to continue to get paid the most for a DE for doing nothing last year. The restructure could have been bigger and the savings more, but it was a step in the right direction.

4. My only real Criticism was the contract offer to Herndon. Why not pony up 800K more to rent him for a year or get a first round pick if someone really wanted him? Sure they were tight against the salary cap, but when has that really been a problem around here? This would have allowed more flexibility with the injury concerns to Walls And Middlebrooks. Both Walls and Middlebrooks are FA's next year as well. Having three potential guys to sign would allow Denver to negotiate with the one they wanted to keep the most.

So, while I agree the "PLAN" as it was notoriously laid out to the Press and the fans was a bunch of Hype and Misdirection ( 3-4 defense anyone???), the "Switch" seems to be working out fairly well but only time will tell if this method works out the way they wanted.

[NaptownChief]

"Fiscal responsibility has been the difference"....Translation= Tired of giving up 3rd round picks. ;D

[Mile High Shack]

"Fiscal responsibility has been the difference"....Translation= Tired of giving up 3rd round picks. ;D

.....like the chiefs every year

except their drafts are so crappy, they have to trade away their 3rd round picks to get a player who can take the field w/o embarrasement

[bendog]

Was the only cost in keeping herndon for a year 800K? Or did we have to match the entire contract offer?

Still, making the guy stary and not giving him the bonus that would give him insurance against injury would be something .... like Peterson or Indy would do.

[bloodsunday]

If we had offered Herndon the same deal we offered Walls -- 1.3 mill -- as a restricted FA, then Denver would get a #1 if he left. Denver tendered him the minimum which means compensation for leaving is equal to his draft slot. For Herndon that would be zilch since he was undrafted. Thus Denver screwed up, IMO, by tendering Herndon the minimum. The odds they would keep him under that scenario were near zero.

I agree with Mediator, why not tender him at the first round level? If Walls gets hurt this year then we have insurance. Next season we sign one to a long term deal.

[jonny1]

If we had offered Herndon the same deal we offered Walls -- 1.3 mill -- as a restricted FA, then Denver would get a #1 if he left. Denver tendered him the minimum which means compensation for leaving is equal to his draft slot. For Herndon that would be zilch since he was undrafted. Thus Denver screwed up, IMO, by tendering Herndon the minimum. The odds they would keep him under that scenario were near zero.

I agree with Mediator, why not tender him at the first round level? If Walls gets hurt this year then we have insurance. Next season we sign one to a long term deal.

I believe you can only tab one player at that level.

[Mediator12]

I believe you can only tab one player at that level.

Every RFA can recieve any of the three qualifying offers that the team wants to choose as far as I know. I could be wrong, but I found no language in the CBA to support your assumption.

[delany]

You can tab more than one at that level...BUT Ted was on record prior to any contract offer to Kelly as saying that the Broncos didn't want to invest that much more into the position.

Seattle most likely wouldn't have pursued Kelly if he was tendered at the 1st round level. So essentially Denver would have been over-paying for a nickelback.

Denver made a conscience choice that people might not agree with (especially if Walls or Champ gets hurt)..but it is hard to fault their logic.

[Mediator12]

You can tab more than one at that level...BUT Ted was on record prior to any contract offer to Kelly as saying that the Broncos didn't want to invest that much more into the position.

Seattle most likely wouldn't have pursued Kelly if he was tendered at the 1st round level. So essentially Denver would have been over-paying for a nickelback.

Denver made a conscience choice that people might not agree with (especially if Walls or Champ gets hurt)..but it is hard to fault their logic.

I'm sorry, I do not buy the fact that they were unwilling to spend 800K to retain an experienced CB for Injury Insurance since any other additions will likely cost more.

[delany]

"There's a little risk there," Broncos general manager Ted Sundquist acknowledged. "But given our situation, you can't throw $1.4 million on Lenny and Kelly."

At the same time, Herndon's 16 starts also happened, to some degree, because Walls was unable to stay healthy.

Foot and shoulder injuries limited Walls to seven games before he went on injured reserve Nov. 30.

Walls' potential - and 2003 performance as a first-time starter - convinced the Broncos he was a bigger risk to lose had he been given the lower tender.

Denver also was reticent to put too much money at one position, given Champ Bailey's $3.7 million cap figure that jumps to the $9 million range the next two seasons.

Do you think Ted was lying when he said that they can't throw 1.4M on both of them?


I am sure their 'plan' includes salary forecasts by position and year. Based on this information, their fiscal assumptions and Kelly's talent level, they made a business decision to not OVERPAY, what amounts to barring injury, somebody that won't come close to the amount of snaps that he played this past year.


I think they performed the critical thinking with Kelly in the exact manner in which you commended them for on other points.


How is this situation any different than others where you deem them being fiscally responsible?

[jonny1]

Every RFA can recieve any of the three qualifying offers that the team wants to choose as far as I know. I could be wrong, but I found no language in the CBA to support your assumption.

My bad

[Bronco LB 59]

Great post as always Mediator.

I think the Broncos' offseason approach could be characterized as a football version of "Moneyball".

[Jason in LA]

I think the Broncos didn't want to invest much at all into Herndon. If they had given him the first round tender, nobody would have taken him, and they would have been stuck paying him more than he's probably worth. The Seahawks over paid by a lot.

I like the offseason moves. A lot of low risk high rewards moves. We know all of them aren't going to pan out. But if some of them do, which should happen, the Broncos will be looking good. The Broncos really aren't that far off. The roster just needed to be fine tuned. I think this will work.

[Mediator12]

Do you think Ted was lying when he said that they can't throw 1.4M on both of them?


I am sure their 'plan' includes salary forecasts by position and year. Based on this information, their fiscal assumptions and Kelly's talent level, they made a business decision to not OVERPAY, what amounts to barring injury, somebody that won't come close to the amount of snaps that he played this past year.


I think they performed the critical thinking with Kelly in the exact manner in which you commended them for on other points.


How is this situation any different than others where you deem them being fiscally responsible?

I'm sorry I thought I explained this in the original post. I do not believe 800K difference in salary is worth the Risk of losing a guy who has started 31 games in two years and when the guys you are expecting to contibute the whole year have dubious injury histories in the last year. Starting CB experience in the NFL is a premium that less than a percent of the cap for one year is worth IMHO. The escalation of Champ's contract in the future has zero bearing on this deal since it is ONE YEAR.

I understand Lenny's value on the open market may have not been worth the risk of the mid tender, but Kelly getting the no compensation tender since he was undrafted is foolish IMHO. He was a certainty to sign elsewhere and TED KNEW THAT.

Losing Herndon Requires the need for More CB depth, period. A third round rookie is cheaper for sure, but no Gaurantee to make an impact. This is the sole exception to value that I do not agree with since the savings is not worth the risk. That is my point.

[Atlas]

With all the Hype and movement this offseason it may be easy for most people around here to miss the the Major differences in the Offseason approach this year. Fiscal responsibility has been the difference. No longer is the Front Office going with the "WIN now at any cost approach." They seem to have taken on a more "balanced Risk/Reward and Opportunity Cost method."

1. No huge FA investments to yield the two players away mentality that came up after the INDY loss. This includes possibly overpaying for Reggie Hayward and Kennoy Kennedy on their own roster. Every other Offseason since the SB runs the Broncos have gone after high profile FA's and Retreads. This year they Switched their acquisition strategy to finding lower risk/higher reward types. No HUGE investments, except for Gold and that has been talked about enough, and Flexibility for the future.

2. Dropping out of the first round of a weak draft for the first time in Shanahan's tenure. Acquiring two first round picks for NEXT year for the first time in Shanahan's tenure. The decision to not pay second round talent a first round contract is a new concept around here. The extra draft picks are pure bonus and Hopefully without a first round player the team switches to a value approach over a Project approach in this years draft as well.

3. Getting Pryce to restructure his deal when he wanted to continue to get paid the most for a DE for doing nothing last year. The restructure could have been bigger and the savings more, but it was a step in the right direction.

4. My only real Criticism was the contract offer to Herndon. Why not pony up 800K more to rent him for a year or get a first round pick if someone really wanted him? Sure they were tight against the salary cap, but when has that really been a problem around here? This would have allowed more flexibility with the injury concerns to Walls And Middlebrooks. Both Walls and Middlebrooks are FA's next year as well. Having three potential guys to sign would allow Denver to negotiate with the one they wanted to keep the most.

So, while I agree the "PLAN" as it was notoriously laid out to the Press and the fans was a bunch of Hype and Misdirection ( 3-4 defense anyone???), the "Switch" seems to be working out fairly well but only time will tell if this method works out the way they wanted.

They did the same thing last year. With the exception of Bailey they went out and got workman type players. I think it's a good strategy but when you use FA to get players to fill holes and add depth NOT to get the star players you have to draft the star players. I believe Denver had a very good draft last year hopefully they can follow it up this year and more importantly in 2006.

[delany]

This is the sole exception to value that I do not agree with since the savings is not worth the risk. That is my point.

Gotcha.

I myself fall on the other side of the risk/reward equation regarding Kelly.

Love the analysis though Med...and agree whole-heartedly with your other points.

[bendog]

Maybe, because despite what posters from other teams say Shanny is a very decent boss and Den had decided they wanted to retain Walls and Middlebrooks, shanny had no intention of offering a long term deal to Herndon, he let the guy get the payday with the bonus? No doubt the team has a cap dollar figure for the position and that played into it, as well as did the fact that they continually want to bring in younger guys, and they figured they'll find another guy with the same skill as Herndon. Admittedly this only makes some sense if they thing Middlebrooks' leg's ok. But, shanny does have a long history of not ****ing over guys just to get a year out of them. That was what was disappointing about TBone screwing around and trying to hang on another year.

What was stinky's bitch too? I forgot what that was about.

[Drek]

I think the Broncos' offseason approach could be characterized as a football version of "Moneyball". I'd say that's more like what the Pats are doing right now. We're still too consumed with restructuring and pro-rating deals for our own good, and we also need to start finding those draft guys that other teams miss on the second day.

Me personally, I think we had the "plan" coming into this off-season, and said plan was to trade Trev for a 1st rounder, resign Hayward and Kennedy, bring back Gold, and then sign an impact DT and OG, along with drafting another CB, WR, and more DE talent. When the market opened though that plan blew up in our face because Hayward and Kennedy both got big contracts, Trev's value basically was at zero, and no big DTs were really available except Pat Williams, who also got big money.

What the FO has done now I call the "reaction" and I'd say its a pretty good reaction. It shows more future planning than any off-season for this organization has in a while. I'm a big fan of the direction we've gone in, and Sundquist and Shanny really pulled this off-season around. Maybe thats what they need every off-season, to get jilted out of the gate, making them get up off their asses and go on the offensive.

[DBroncos4life]

I would like to see if this continues into the draft. There are some good players dropping for reason's which means they have a higher "value" then others. Value picks in my mind go two ways. 1). Can the player help us in more then one way...I.E. Position plus return game. 2). The best player left in that position. Like taking the best punter in the draft when our sp teams haven't been good in 100 years.

[yavoon]

Great post as always Mediator.

I think the Broncos' offseason approach could be characterized as a football version of "Moneyball".

actually moneyball is a stastical philosophy based on production and the quantification of everything.

picking up busted 1st round talent isnt moneyball. drafting david pollack is moneyball.

[Ballhawk]

When it all comes down to BPA or need pick, I would prefer to go with the need pick this year. Needs G, FS, CB, P, KR. If he can get a K/R and address another need, Great! I wold like to see no more than 1 first day pick on a player with upside that is not a need, for some this is VJ, others McPhearson, SoCal Hawthorne, for me Walters, but if we come away with no G and on the first day I will be pissed.

[Clockwork Orange]

actually moneyball is a stastical philosophy based on production and the quantification of everything.

picking up busted 1st round talent isnt moneyball. drafting david pollack is moneyball.

Are you still here? Shouldn't you be with your fellow Browns fans figuring out which bust Cleveland's gonna to draft tomorrow with the 3rd overall pick so that the Broncos can sign him three years from now?

[yavoon]

Are you still here? Shouldn't you be with your fellow Browns fans figuring out which bust Cleveland's gonna to draft tomorrow with the 3rd overall pick so that the Broncos can sign him three years from now?

wow u wasted how much of ur life typing that post?

[Clockwork Orange]

wow u wasted how much of ur life typing that post?

I thnk abt 30 scnds. Thx fr askng.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Seattle most likely wouldn't have pursued Kelly if he was tendered at the 1st round level. So essentially Denver would have been over-paying for a nickelback.


Most likely? There would have been 0 interest in Herndon if he had a 1st round tender, just like there would have been 0 interest in Reggie if Denver had put the franchise tag on him.