Traveler
04-19-2005, 04:57 AM
Drafting well is key to success in NFL
By Jeff Reynolds (jreynolds@pfwmedia.com)
April 18, 2005
If you don't draft well, you can't win in today's NFL.
Ask Dan Snyder, the Redskins owner who invested almost $50 million to add six high-profile free agents last March and again finds his club drafting among the top 10. Or Jerry Jones, the Cowboys' mastermind who once parted ways with coach Jimmy Johnson because there wasn't room for two enormous egos in the Super Bowl trophy case.
The NFL is further from parity than the league would like you to believe. Teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia, New England and Pittsburgh are near the pinnacle each season because they rarely err in personnel decisions.
The have-nots — we're talking about Arizona (selecting in the top 10 for the eighth time since 1993) and, ahem, Washington (sixth time since 1994) — can't get a ticket to the postseason dance because the glass slipper isn't for sale, you have to find it.
Arizona would do anything to be on the other side of the fence. The careers of first-round picks like third overall pick Andre Wadsworth (1998) and Garrison Hearst (fourth overall in 1993) never got off the ground with this franchise. Others, like Iowa DB Tom Knight (ninth overall in 1997), simply didn't have the chance.
The annual redemption rotisserie is back, just five days away. But history tells us not everyone will get it right. With a focus on the top 16 draft selections, we'll take two steps back to explain why we think teams will or won't take that step forward in 2005.
1. San Francisco 49ers
No team is feeling the pressure that new head coach Mike Nolan and VP of personnel Scot McLoughan are feeling. The Niners’ decision is down to three players, but one of two quarterbacks, either Utah junior Alex Smith or California junior Aaron Rodgers, is almost certain to become the 25th quarterback taken No. 1 overall. McLoughan learned at the knee of Ron Wolf in Green Bay (he acquired a pretty fair quarterback ... a guy named Favre) and was with Mike Holmgren in Seattle as the Seahawks made a former sixth-round pick (Matt Hasselbeck) into a Pro Bowler. And Nolan has worked closely with Hall of Famer John Elway as a part of the Broncos' coaching staff and with Phil Simms in New York. His most recent stop, with the Ravens, included firsthand dealings with these former Round One picks: Ed Reed, Todd Heap, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Peter Boulware, Kyle Boller, Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis. We don't doubt these two will get it right, though the verdict won't be handed down for at least two seasons. Then, we'll know whether the 49ers' top pick came with spring-loaded cleats, like Peyton Manning (1998) and Terry Bradshaw (1970), or if the Niners' draft is remembered with dread, like Jeff George in Indianapolis (1990) and Tim Couch in Cleveland (1999).
2. Miami Dolphins
A disciple of Bill Belichick’s, new Dolphins head coach Nick Saban (one of three first-year head coaches with top-three picks), understands that the best way to fill multiple holes is with multiple talented players. The Dolphins wouldn't mind trading back. They don't have a second-round pick after dealing for QB A.J. Feeley last March, and Saban has more needs than draft picks. But if a deal cannot be consummated, the Dolphins are in prime position to draft a top quarterback, running back or add Michigan WR Braylon Edwards, considered by many scouts to be the top player in the draft. The Dolphins haven't had a pick within the top 14 since Don Shula's days. The last time they were this close, 1997, they took Miami (Fla.) WR Yatil Green with the 15th pick.
3. Cleveland Browns
What misery the fans in Cleveland must feel compared to the excitement of fellow cities and franchises. Since returning to the NFL, the Browns have used first-round picks on Tim Couch (No. 1, 1999), Courtney Brown (No. 1, 2000), Gerard Warren (third overall, 2001), RB William Green (16th, 2002), C Jeff Faine (2003) and TE Kellen Winslow. None of the aforementioned picks — all but Faine and Green having been selected among the top 10 — can be considered anything but "busts" to this point in their careers (although Winslow gets a pass after an injury-shortened rookie year). The Browns are said to like Edwards as well. They drafted Michigan WR Derrick Alexander 29th overall in 1994 and haven't had an All-Pro in almost 15 years. The good news, if you are looking for some, is the Browns invested wisely in placing GM Phil Savage atop the personnel department and former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel as head coach. Savage helped draft many of the players associated with Mike Nolan in Baltimore.
4. Chicago Bears
This pick lacks nothing in history. The Bears drafted Sayers, Payton and Hampton No. 4 and traded the fourth pick to the Jets in 2003. That year the Bears got multiple picks in return, using first-round selections on Penn State DE Michael Haynes and Florida QB Rex Grossman. Since the Bears ranked 32nd in offense last season, the assumption is GM Jerry Angelo plans to draft some help for Grossman. Bears fans will hope he doesn't find another running back like Rashaan Salaam (21st overall, 1995) or Curtis Enis (fifth overall, 1998). Chicago has drafted two wide receivers in the top 10 in recent memory, taking USC WR Curtis Conway seventh overall in 1993 and David Terrell, of Michigan, eighth in 2001.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In their first tandem effort in Tampa Bay, Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen nailed their first-round pick, taking LSU WR Michael Clayton. Gruden, always thinking offense first, says he loves a few of the running backs and quarterbacks who might be around. Not since drafting Fresno State's Trent Dilfer in 1994 (sixth overall) has the franchise used a Round One pick on a quarterback. The last running back drafted in the first round was Florida State mighty mite Warrick Dunn (eighth overall, 1997). Don't forget, the Buccaneers have traded four first-round picks since 1998.
6. Tennessee Titans
Talk about a foundation: OT Brad Hopkins, QB Steve McNair, RB Eddie George, DE Kenny Holmes, WR Kevin Dyson, DE Jevon Kearse, LB Keith Bulluck, DE Kevin Carter (via trade for a first-round pick in 2001) all made significant contributions to the franchise since Hopkins was the first of the bunch drafted (13th overall in 1993). Now the Titans are rebuilding, and need to find replacements for many of the players who once carried them to prominence. Don't fall out of your armchair recliner if the Titans draft one of the two stud quarterbacks available if given the chance.
7. Minnesota Vikings (also pick 18th)
Selecting among the top eight for the third time in four years, the Vikings loaded up on defense in free agency while dumping the most explosive offensive player in football, WR Randy Moss (21st overall, 1998), in a trade that brought them the seventh pick. Don't bet against more defensive help, but head coach Mike Tice would love it if USC WR Mike Williams was around. He'd be just the second first-round pick the Vikings have used on a wide receiver since 1995.
8. Arizona Cardinals
OK, you know the history. The Calvin Pace-Bryant Johnson double-dip in 2003, the long line of busts among top-10 picks. Maybe head coach Dennis Green can change the culture as he said he can, and maybe it started with WR Larry Fitzgerald last year. Well, Denny, I'll believe it when I see it. If the Cardinals can find a real difference-maker — and not another Thomas Jones (seventh overall, 2000) — the bandwagon may be loaded in time to fill the new stadium in 2006.
9. Washington Redskins
The more you hear about team concept and chemistry, the less significant marquee names like Arrington, Bailey and Samuels (all top-five picks) sound. Washington needs another shutdown corner, now that Champ Bailey and Fred Smoot have departed to leave the defense thin at cornerback, but Washington wants a wide receiver it can call its No. 1. The last time they tried this? Hello, Michael Westbrook (fourth overall, 1995), who is out of the league, and Rod Gardner (15th, 2001), who is on the trading block.
10. Detroit Lions
Seven of their last eight first-round picks were spent to upgrade the offense. USC LB Chris Claiborne, now with the Rams, was the only exception in 1999. While president Matt Millen pushes for one of the top offensive tackles in this draft (it would be the fourth offensive tackle drafted in Round One by the franchise since 1999), the defense needs attention. If the top-rated defensive players remain on the board as expected, Millen should be excited to insert supertalented DE Shawne Merriman or Texas LB Derrick Johnson into his starting 22.
11. Dallas Cowboys (also pick 20th)
Prior to last season, when the Cowboys opted to trade out of the first round in exchange for the Bills' first-round selection in 2005, the Cowboys had been in the top 10 for three straight years. During that run, Dallas dealt the No. 7 overall pick to Seattle as part of the Joey Galloway trade in 2001, picked S Roy Williams eighth overall the next season and nabbed CB Terence Newman at No. 5 in 2003. It might not take the right player for Dallas to move up or down — they have several worthy options with an almost strictly defensive focus, just like their four previous first-round picks.
12. San Diego Chargers (also pick 28th)
Dating to 1994, the Chargers have traded their first-round selection eight times, including Eli Manning in last year's draft-and-trade with the Giants. After a surprisingly successful 2004 campaign, some believe the Chargers are on the move again and might want to deal up to be in position for a top wide receiver. If they stay put, LSU DL Marcus Spears would be a good get considering his ability and versatility in the 3-4 scheme the Chargers use. Other than RB LaDainian Tomlinson (fifth overall, 2001), the Chargers don't have a memorable recent draft history. Unless you'd like us to bring up Ryan Leaf, the next player drafted after Peyton Manning in 1998.
13. Houston Texans
The Texans might like to turn in their card right now for Florida State OT Alex Barron. See, they need a blocker to keep QB David Carr (first overall, 2002) from being battered beyond the current 140-some odd sacks he's endured in his first three seasons as a starter. Houston attempted to lure Rams OLT Orlando Pace, but Pace wasn't going anywhere from the start. Now the Texans have three very solid picks from the last three drafts in Carr, WR Andre Johnson and CB Dunta Robinson and another who could blossom in LB Jason Babin. Houston isn't there yet, but if it can fortify the offense with an offensive tackle or another wide receiver, the Texans may be in business at last.
14. Carolina Panthers
Nobody does defense like Panthers GM Marty Hurney. He hasn't drafted an offensive skill-position player for the Panthers since 1997, and that was Colorado WR Rae Carruth. Hurney has gone with defense in seven of the last eight drafts. We're expecting him to trend back toward the offense.
15. Kansas City Chiefs
GM Carl Peterson has an eye for talent like few others. OK, he traded a first-round pick for Joe Montana in 1993 and another for Trent Green in 2001, and his recent draft record includes DT Ryan Sims (sixth overall in 2002) and WR Sylvester Morris (No. 21 in 2000). But some of us are learning we may have been wrong about that Larry Johnson kid. C'mon, K.C., let Trezelle Jenkins and Greg Hill fade into the past. The odds have to be in your favor by now, right?
16. New Orleans Saints
Three of the Saints' last four first-round picks were defensive linemen: DE Will Smith, DT Johnathan Sullivan and DE Charles Grant. They are waiting on the other, WR Donté Stallworth, to deliver on his promise. If he doesn't, the Saints likely will send him packing the way they did 1998 first-round pick Kyle Turley (seventh overall, 1998) or 1999 first-round pick Ricky Williams (fifth overall). The Saints would have had the No. 2 pick in 2000 but had to send it to Washington in the convoluted Ricky Williams deal. You know, the Saints always do what we expect on Draft Day — the unexpected.
By Jeff Reynolds (jreynolds@pfwmedia.com)
April 18, 2005
If you don't draft well, you can't win in today's NFL.
Ask Dan Snyder, the Redskins owner who invested almost $50 million to add six high-profile free agents last March and again finds his club drafting among the top 10. Or Jerry Jones, the Cowboys' mastermind who once parted ways with coach Jimmy Johnson because there wasn't room for two enormous egos in the Super Bowl trophy case.
The NFL is further from parity than the league would like you to believe. Teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia, New England and Pittsburgh are near the pinnacle each season because they rarely err in personnel decisions.
The have-nots — we're talking about Arizona (selecting in the top 10 for the eighth time since 1993) and, ahem, Washington (sixth time since 1994) — can't get a ticket to the postseason dance because the glass slipper isn't for sale, you have to find it.
Arizona would do anything to be on the other side of the fence. The careers of first-round picks like third overall pick Andre Wadsworth (1998) and Garrison Hearst (fourth overall in 1993) never got off the ground with this franchise. Others, like Iowa DB Tom Knight (ninth overall in 1997), simply didn't have the chance.
The annual redemption rotisserie is back, just five days away. But history tells us not everyone will get it right. With a focus on the top 16 draft selections, we'll take two steps back to explain why we think teams will or won't take that step forward in 2005.
1. San Francisco 49ers
No team is feeling the pressure that new head coach Mike Nolan and VP of personnel Scot McLoughan are feeling. The Niners’ decision is down to three players, but one of two quarterbacks, either Utah junior Alex Smith or California junior Aaron Rodgers, is almost certain to become the 25th quarterback taken No. 1 overall. McLoughan learned at the knee of Ron Wolf in Green Bay (he acquired a pretty fair quarterback ... a guy named Favre) and was with Mike Holmgren in Seattle as the Seahawks made a former sixth-round pick (Matt Hasselbeck) into a Pro Bowler. And Nolan has worked closely with Hall of Famer John Elway as a part of the Broncos' coaching staff and with Phil Simms in New York. His most recent stop, with the Ravens, included firsthand dealings with these former Round One picks: Ed Reed, Todd Heap, Jamal Lewis, Chris McAlister, Peter Boulware, Kyle Boller, Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis. We don't doubt these two will get it right, though the verdict won't be handed down for at least two seasons. Then, we'll know whether the 49ers' top pick came with spring-loaded cleats, like Peyton Manning (1998) and Terry Bradshaw (1970), or if the Niners' draft is remembered with dread, like Jeff George in Indianapolis (1990) and Tim Couch in Cleveland (1999).
2. Miami Dolphins
A disciple of Bill Belichick’s, new Dolphins head coach Nick Saban (one of three first-year head coaches with top-three picks), understands that the best way to fill multiple holes is with multiple talented players. The Dolphins wouldn't mind trading back. They don't have a second-round pick after dealing for QB A.J. Feeley last March, and Saban has more needs than draft picks. But if a deal cannot be consummated, the Dolphins are in prime position to draft a top quarterback, running back or add Michigan WR Braylon Edwards, considered by many scouts to be the top player in the draft. The Dolphins haven't had a pick within the top 14 since Don Shula's days. The last time they were this close, 1997, they took Miami (Fla.) WR Yatil Green with the 15th pick.
3. Cleveland Browns
What misery the fans in Cleveland must feel compared to the excitement of fellow cities and franchises. Since returning to the NFL, the Browns have used first-round picks on Tim Couch (No. 1, 1999), Courtney Brown (No. 1, 2000), Gerard Warren (third overall, 2001), RB William Green (16th, 2002), C Jeff Faine (2003) and TE Kellen Winslow. None of the aforementioned picks — all but Faine and Green having been selected among the top 10 — can be considered anything but "busts" to this point in their careers (although Winslow gets a pass after an injury-shortened rookie year). The Browns are said to like Edwards as well. They drafted Michigan WR Derrick Alexander 29th overall in 1994 and haven't had an All-Pro in almost 15 years. The good news, if you are looking for some, is the Browns invested wisely in placing GM Phil Savage atop the personnel department and former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel as head coach. Savage helped draft many of the players associated with Mike Nolan in Baltimore.
4. Chicago Bears
This pick lacks nothing in history. The Bears drafted Sayers, Payton and Hampton No. 4 and traded the fourth pick to the Jets in 2003. That year the Bears got multiple picks in return, using first-round selections on Penn State DE Michael Haynes and Florida QB Rex Grossman. Since the Bears ranked 32nd in offense last season, the assumption is GM Jerry Angelo plans to draft some help for Grossman. Bears fans will hope he doesn't find another running back like Rashaan Salaam (21st overall, 1995) or Curtis Enis (fifth overall, 1998). Chicago has drafted two wide receivers in the top 10 in recent memory, taking USC WR Curtis Conway seventh overall in 1993 and David Terrell, of Michigan, eighth in 2001.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In their first tandem effort in Tampa Bay, Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen nailed their first-round pick, taking LSU WR Michael Clayton. Gruden, always thinking offense first, says he loves a few of the running backs and quarterbacks who might be around. Not since drafting Fresno State's Trent Dilfer in 1994 (sixth overall) has the franchise used a Round One pick on a quarterback. The last running back drafted in the first round was Florida State mighty mite Warrick Dunn (eighth overall, 1997). Don't forget, the Buccaneers have traded four first-round picks since 1998.
6. Tennessee Titans
Talk about a foundation: OT Brad Hopkins, QB Steve McNair, RB Eddie George, DE Kenny Holmes, WR Kevin Dyson, DE Jevon Kearse, LB Keith Bulluck, DE Kevin Carter (via trade for a first-round pick in 2001) all made significant contributions to the franchise since Hopkins was the first of the bunch drafted (13th overall in 1993). Now the Titans are rebuilding, and need to find replacements for many of the players who once carried them to prominence. Don't fall out of your armchair recliner if the Titans draft one of the two stud quarterbacks available if given the chance.
7. Minnesota Vikings (also pick 18th)
Selecting among the top eight for the third time in four years, the Vikings loaded up on defense in free agency while dumping the most explosive offensive player in football, WR Randy Moss (21st overall, 1998), in a trade that brought them the seventh pick. Don't bet against more defensive help, but head coach Mike Tice would love it if USC WR Mike Williams was around. He'd be just the second first-round pick the Vikings have used on a wide receiver since 1995.
8. Arizona Cardinals
OK, you know the history. The Calvin Pace-Bryant Johnson double-dip in 2003, the long line of busts among top-10 picks. Maybe head coach Dennis Green can change the culture as he said he can, and maybe it started with WR Larry Fitzgerald last year. Well, Denny, I'll believe it when I see it. If the Cardinals can find a real difference-maker — and not another Thomas Jones (seventh overall, 2000) — the bandwagon may be loaded in time to fill the new stadium in 2006.
9. Washington Redskins
The more you hear about team concept and chemistry, the less significant marquee names like Arrington, Bailey and Samuels (all top-five picks) sound. Washington needs another shutdown corner, now that Champ Bailey and Fred Smoot have departed to leave the defense thin at cornerback, but Washington wants a wide receiver it can call its No. 1. The last time they tried this? Hello, Michael Westbrook (fourth overall, 1995), who is out of the league, and Rod Gardner (15th, 2001), who is on the trading block.
10. Detroit Lions
Seven of their last eight first-round picks were spent to upgrade the offense. USC LB Chris Claiborne, now with the Rams, was the only exception in 1999. While president Matt Millen pushes for one of the top offensive tackles in this draft (it would be the fourth offensive tackle drafted in Round One by the franchise since 1999), the defense needs attention. If the top-rated defensive players remain on the board as expected, Millen should be excited to insert supertalented DE Shawne Merriman or Texas LB Derrick Johnson into his starting 22.
11. Dallas Cowboys (also pick 20th)
Prior to last season, when the Cowboys opted to trade out of the first round in exchange for the Bills' first-round selection in 2005, the Cowboys had been in the top 10 for three straight years. During that run, Dallas dealt the No. 7 overall pick to Seattle as part of the Joey Galloway trade in 2001, picked S Roy Williams eighth overall the next season and nabbed CB Terence Newman at No. 5 in 2003. It might not take the right player for Dallas to move up or down — they have several worthy options with an almost strictly defensive focus, just like their four previous first-round picks.
12. San Diego Chargers (also pick 28th)
Dating to 1994, the Chargers have traded their first-round selection eight times, including Eli Manning in last year's draft-and-trade with the Giants. After a surprisingly successful 2004 campaign, some believe the Chargers are on the move again and might want to deal up to be in position for a top wide receiver. If they stay put, LSU DL Marcus Spears would be a good get considering his ability and versatility in the 3-4 scheme the Chargers use. Other than RB LaDainian Tomlinson (fifth overall, 2001), the Chargers don't have a memorable recent draft history. Unless you'd like us to bring up Ryan Leaf, the next player drafted after Peyton Manning in 1998.
13. Houston Texans
The Texans might like to turn in their card right now for Florida State OT Alex Barron. See, they need a blocker to keep QB David Carr (first overall, 2002) from being battered beyond the current 140-some odd sacks he's endured in his first three seasons as a starter. Houston attempted to lure Rams OLT Orlando Pace, but Pace wasn't going anywhere from the start. Now the Texans have three very solid picks from the last three drafts in Carr, WR Andre Johnson and CB Dunta Robinson and another who could blossom in LB Jason Babin. Houston isn't there yet, but if it can fortify the offense with an offensive tackle or another wide receiver, the Texans may be in business at last.
14. Carolina Panthers
Nobody does defense like Panthers GM Marty Hurney. He hasn't drafted an offensive skill-position player for the Panthers since 1997, and that was Colorado WR Rae Carruth. Hurney has gone with defense in seven of the last eight drafts. We're expecting him to trend back toward the offense.
15. Kansas City Chiefs
GM Carl Peterson has an eye for talent like few others. OK, he traded a first-round pick for Joe Montana in 1993 and another for Trent Green in 2001, and his recent draft record includes DT Ryan Sims (sixth overall in 2002) and WR Sylvester Morris (No. 21 in 2000). But some of us are learning we may have been wrong about that Larry Johnson kid. C'mon, K.C., let Trezelle Jenkins and Greg Hill fade into the past. The odds have to be in your favor by now, right?
16. New Orleans Saints
Three of the Saints' last four first-round picks were defensive linemen: DE Will Smith, DT Johnathan Sullivan and DE Charles Grant. They are waiting on the other, WR Donté Stallworth, to deliver on his promise. If he doesn't, the Saints likely will send him packing the way they did 1998 first-round pick Kyle Turley (seventh overall, 1998) or 1999 first-round pick Ricky Williams (fifth overall). The Saints would have had the No. 2 pick in 2000 but had to send it to Washington in the convoluted Ricky Williams deal. You know, the Saints always do what we expect on Draft Day — the unexpected.