Comparison of NE and BAL drafts since 2000

[Mediator12]

There seems to be a commonly held perception that NE and BAL are the best drafting teams in the last 5 years. So I did some research and compared their drafts in REALITY. These presumptions on my part are just for comparisons sake and to start some fun converasation before the draft.

I did some research on the drafts of the Patriots and BAL and found some very serious discrepancies in reality and perception. Their draft records really stand on one or two strong drafts in depth and Avoiding busts in recent 3 years. Even though trading up for Kyle Boller is often overlooked for BAL. Current Starters are in Bold.

BAL from 2000:
1 5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee
1 10 Travis Taylor WR Florida
3 75 Chris Redman QB Louisville
5 148 Richard Mercier G Miami
6 186 Adalius Thomas OLB Southern Mississippi
6 191 Cedric Woodard DT Texas

2001
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 31 Todd Heap TE Arizona State
2 62 Gary Baxter CB Baylor
3 92 Casey Rabach C Wisconsin
4 126 Edgerton Hartwell ILB Western Illinois
5 161 Chris Barnes RB New Mexico State
6 194 Joe Maese C New Mexico
7 231 Dwayne Missouri DE Northwestern

2002
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 24 Ed Reed SS Miami
2 52 Anthony Weaver DE Notre Dame
4 112 Dave Zastudil P Ohio
4 123 Ron Johnson WR Minnesota
5 155 Terry Jones TE Alabama
6 195 Lamont Brightful CB Eastern Washington
6 206 Javin Hunter WR Notre Dame
6 207 Chester Taylor RB Toledo
6 209 Chad Williams SS Southern Mississippi
7 236 Wes Pate QB Stephen F. Austin

2003
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 10 Terrell Suggs OLB Arizona State
1 19 Kyle Boller QB California
3 77 Musa Smith RB Georgia
4 109 Jarret Johnson DE Alabama
4 134 Ovie Mughelli FB Wake Forest
5 146 Aubrayo Franklin NT Tennessee
5 173 Tony Pashos T Illinois
6 182 Gerome Sapp FS Notre Dame
7 223 Trent Smith TE Oklahoma
7 250 Mike Mabry C Central Florida
7 258 Antwoine Sanders DB Utah

2004
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 51 Dwan Edwards DE Oregon State
3 82 Devard Darling WR Washington State
5 153 Roderick Green OLB Central Missouri
6 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green
6 199 Clarence Moore WR Northern Arizona
7 244 Derek Abney WR Kentucky
7 246 Brian Rimpf T East Carolina

They have eight starters in the group from 5 years of draft. And, they lost two impact starters from their 2001 draft just like Denver did in FA therefore nullifying their deepest draft through attrition. The only thing that stands out is that 3 of their 5 picks has gone to the Probowl.


NE from 2000:
2 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii
3 76 J.R. Redmond FB Arizona State
4 127 Greg Randall T Michigan State
5 141 Dave Stachelski TE Boise State
5 161 Jeff Marriott G Missouri
6 187 Antwan Harris FS Virginia
6 199 Tom Brady QB Michigan
6 201 David Nugent DE Purdue
7 226 Casey Tisdale DE New Mexico
7 239 Patrick Pass FB Georgia

2001
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 6 Richard Seymour DE Georgia
2 48 Matt Light T Purdue
3 86 Brock Williams CB Notre Dame
4 96 Kenyatta Jones T South Florida
4 119 Jabari Holloway TE Notre Dame
5 163 Hakim Akbar OLB Washington
6 180 Arther Love TE South Carolina State
6 200 Leonard Myers CB Miami
7 216 Owen Pochman K Brigham Young
7 239 T.J. Turner OLB Michigan State

2002
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 21 Daniel Graham TE Colorado
2 65 Deion Branch WR Louisville
4 117 Rohan Davey QB Louisiana State
4 126 Jarvis Green DE Louisiana State
7 237 Antwoine Womack RB Virginia
7 253 David Givens WR Notre Dame

2003
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 13 Ty Warren DE Texas A&M
2 36 Eugene Wilson FS Illinois
2 45 Bethel Johnson WR Texas A&M
4 117 Dan Klecko ILB Temple
4 120 Asante Samuel CB Central Florida
5 164 Dan Koppen C Boston College
6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB Texas Tech
7 234 Spencer Nead FB Brigham Young
7 239 Tully Banta-Cain OLB California
7 243 Ethan Kelley DT Baylor

2004
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 21 Vince Wilfork DT Miami
1 32 Ben Watson TE Georgia
2 63 Marquise Hill DE Louisiana State
3 95 Guss Scott DB Florida
4 113 Dexter Reid SS North Carolina
4 128 Cedric Cobbs RB Arkansas
5 164 P.K. Sam WR Florida State
7 233 Christian Morton DB Illinois

They have 10 starters from their last 5 drafts. That is impressive. Their 2002 and 2003 drafts were deep and the players provided great value. By contrast the 2000 draft was horrible except for a guy named Brady in the 6th. 2001 was strong a the top as well but they have zero guys remaining from under that. 2004 looks good on paper, but Denver is the only one of these three that put a starting player on the field through the draft.

The reality of these drafts is that Denver has placed 8 draft picks as starters in this time span(Gold, Carlisle, Hamilton, Lelie, Putzier, Pope, Foster, and DJ). That leaves out Quentin, but since I included Carlisle who most will see as another stop gap, I only counted one of the two. And just like BAL (who only lost two Starters), we have lost 4 starters through FA or trade. One of Baltimores starters is a punter BTW.

The greatest disparity is the current Probowl players from these drafts. Both BAL and NE have some and Denver does not. Den traded Portis the only probowler for another probowler though. Most here still have the pain of picking Lelie over Reed and that tends to give BAL some Clout.

The sheer number of players still contributing throught the drafts though is interesting since Denver is well on par with both teams. NE's recent deep drafts definitely give them the current advantage and BAL having some great players picked before Denver, except for Reed, gives them the Star power. Overall, however, this is not as bad as I thought it would be.

[PatsWin2002]

I love the way Belichick and Pioli have managed the whole draft pick thing. They don't hurt the future by trading top picks away, but keep enough as bargaining chips.

They also know you can have TOO many because you want to be able to sign the guys you draft.

It's a delicate balance and BB and Pioli have done it masterfully.

[Jason in LA]

Great research Mediator12.

Some interesting questions come up from this. How important is the draft to building a championship team? Both B'More and NE have great drafts, but NE has won 3 out of 4 Super Bowls, and B'More has missed the playoffs the past two years. Only one of B'More's picks over that span had an impact on a Super Bowl team (J. Lewis). How many of NE's picks over that period had a major impact on their Super Bowl teams? Only one of them on their '01 title team (Brady).

Mediator12, it would be interesting to see how FA pick ups affected these teams. I'd bet they had a bigger impact. NE has been very smart with the players that they have signed.

People always go nuts over the draft, but I'm more interested in FA signings. Those are the players that impact the team now. The drafted playes impact the team down the road.

[bloodsunday]

This is interesting stuff and probably lends credit to the fact that we just made some bad decisions in the early 00's that we are still paying for. The other thing that hurt us is our inability to get players in certain positions: QB, WR sans Lelie, CB, and DL.

The greatest disparity is the current Probowl players from these drafts. Both BAL and NE have some and Denver does not. Den traded Portis the only probowler for another probowler though. Most here still have the pain of picking Lelie over Reed and that tends to give BAL some Clout.
Well number of Pro Bowlers has to be a consideration as well. Denver stacks up okay there as well. DJ should have been ROY and is on his way to the Pro Bowl. We traded Portis for another Pro Bowler, so that should count as a Pro Bowl selection.

Reed is a tough pill to swallow just because he is maybe the biggest impact player at his position in the entire league! IMO, that's more than a Pro Bowler, that's a game breaker.

[bloodsunday]

People always go nuts over the draft, but I'm more interested in FA signings. Those are the players that impact the team now. The drafted playes impact the team down the road.
Every team has a different plan. Its a question of whether that plan is A) executed properly and B) sustainable. Signing FAs generally is not because of the cap. Ultimately you have to have both in some kind of balance.

One area I would like to see Denver do better is get away from the dead money so we can start building our roster for the future as well as today. This team seems to always be eyeing only the next season in constant stop gap mode (Browns d-line). I'd also like to see us do a better job of getting more picks since the draft is largely a numbers game.

[Drek]

Reed is a tough pill to swallow just because he is maybe the biggest impact player at his position in the entire league! IMO, that's more than a Pro Bowler, that's a game breaker. Have to ask yourself though, would Reed have been that good for us? We run a different defensive system and a big part of Reed's success should be attributed directly to Ray Lewis taking him under his wing and showing him what it takes to succeed in the NFL.

Not to mention how much easier it probably is to have bad passes thrown at you when Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Peter Boulware are in your front 7, with Cory McAlister on the oppositions best WR. Reed plays in an ideal situation so its not really fair to compare the results we've gotten from Lelie as opposed to what Baltimore has gotten from Reed. Its situational, but during that draft Lelie was significantly more highly regarded.

[MileHighMania]

Here is Denver since 2000:
Bold equals starter ... Navy, starter on another team and/or doing well ... red is solid contributor

2000 - not too terribly bad
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 15 Deltha O'Neal CB California
2 40 Ian Gold OLB Michigan
2 45 Kenoy Kennedy SS Arkansas
3 70 Chris Cole WR Texas A&M
4 101 Jerry Johnson DT Florida State
4 112 Cooper Carlisle G Florida
5 154 Muneer Moore WR Richmond
6 189 Mike Anderson FB Utah
7 214 Jarious Jackson QB Notre Dame
7 246 Leroy Fields WR Jackson State

2001 - blah
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 24 Willie Middlebrooks CB Minnesota
2 51 Paul Toviessi DE Marshall
3 87 Reggie Hayward DE Iowa State
4 113 Ben Hamilton G Minnesota
4 120 Nick Harris P California
6 190 Kevin Kasper WR Iowa

2002 - better than average
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 19 Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii
2 51 Clinton Portis RB Miami
3 96 Dorsett Davis DT Mississippi State
4 131 Sam Brandon FS Nevada-Las Vegas
5 144 Herb Haygood WR Michigan State
6 191 Jeb Putzier TE Boise State
7 228 Chris Young SS Georgia Tech
7 231 Monsanto Pope DT Virginia

2003 - whole lotta nothin so far
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 20 George Foster T Georgia
2 51 Terry Pierce OLB Kansas State
4 108 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma
4 114 Nick Eason DT Clemson
4 128 Bryant McNeal DE Clemson
5 157 Ben Claxton C Mississippi
5 158 Adrian Madise WR Texas Christian
6 194 Aaron Hunt DE Texas Tech
7 227 Clint Mitchell DE Florida
7 235 Ahmaad Galloway RB Alabama

2004 - too early to grade, but the first two look to be really nice with a few other potential solid contributors
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 17 D.J. Williams OLB Miami
2 41 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State
2 54 Darius Watts WR Marshall
3 85 Jeremy LeSueur DB Michigan
5 152 Jeff Shoate CB San Diego State
6 171 Triandos Luke WR Alabama
6 190 Josh Sewell C Nebraska
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State
7 247 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State

So, not as many in bold... but a number of misses.

[Garcia Bronco]

The draft is a crap shoot....however...luck favors the prepared.

[bloodsunday]

Have to ask yourself though, would Reed have been that good for us? We run a different defensive system and a big part of Reed's success should be attributed directly to Ray Lewis taking him under his wing and showing him what it takes to succeed in the NFL.
No one knows if he would have been that good for us, but he would have been good. I will say this: A) I don't give Ray Lewis much credit for developing Reed and B) Reed isn't this good by accident. The guy is good because he want's to be good. Sure Lewis may have shown him how to prepare in the NFL and play with intensity, but there are a number of coaches and players on any given team that could do that.

Not to mention how much easier it probably is to have bad passes thrown at you when Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Peter Boulware are in your front 7, with Cory McAlister on the oppositions best WR. Reed plays in an ideal situation so its not really fair to compare the results we've gotten from Lelie as opposed to what Baltimore has gotten from Reed. Its situational, but during that draft Lelie was significantly more highly regarded.
It's true that Reed plays in a defensive system that allows him to be the play maker he is and likely better than he would be elsewhere. But isn't Denver known as an offensive system? Isn't Rod Smith considered one of the best in the business (in terms of being a pro and a complete football player)? Lelie has the tools around him to succeed as well. Lelie certainly is not a bust, but I personally expected him to be more of a difference maker at this point in his career.

[Jason in LA]

Here is Denver since 2000:
Bold equals starter ... Navy, starter on another team and/or doing well ... red is solid contributor

2000 - not too terribly bad
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 15 Deltha O'Neal CB California
2 40 Ian Gold OLB Michigan
2 45 Kenoy Kennedy SS Arkansas
3 70 Chris Cole WR Texas A&M
4 101 Jerry Johnson DT Florida State
4 112 Cooper Carlisle G Florida
5 154 Muneer Moore WR Richmond
6 189 Mike Anderson FB Utah
7 214 Jarious Jackson QB Notre Dame
7 246 Leroy Fields WR Jackson State

2001 - blah
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 24 Willie Middlebrooks CB Minnesota
2 51 Paul Toviessi DE Marshall
3 87 Reggie Hayward DE Iowa State
4 113 Ben Hamilton G Minnesota
4 120 Nick Harris P California
6 190 Kevin Kasper WR Iowa

2002 - better than average
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 19 Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii
2 51 Clinton Portis RB Miami
3 96 Dorsett Davis DT Mississippi State
4 131 Sam Brandon FS Nevada-Las Vegas
5 144 Herb Haygood WR Michigan State
6 191 Jeb Putzier TE Boise State
7 228 Chris Young SS Georgia Tech
7 231 Monsanto Pope DT Virginia

2003 - whole lotta nothin so far
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 20 George Foster T Georgia
2 51 Terry Pierce OLB Kansas State
4 108 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma
4 114 Nick Eason DT Clemson
4 128 Bryant McNeal DE Clemson
5 157 Ben Claxton C Mississippi
5 158 Adrian Madise WR Texas Christian
6 194 Aaron Hunt DE Texas Tech
7 227 Clint Mitchell DE Florida
7 235 Ahmaad Galloway RB Alabama

2004 - too early to grade, but the first two look to be really nice with a few other potential solid contributors
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 17 D.J. Williams OLB Miami
2 41 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State
2 54 Darius Watts WR Marshall
3 85 Jeremy LeSueur DB Michigan
5 152 Jeff Shoate CB San Diego State
6 171 Triandos Luke WR Alabama
6 190 Josh Sewell C Nebraska
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State
7 247 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State

So, not as many in bold... but a number of misses.


Good research.

*Ben Hamilton should be in bold.

[delany]

In addition to Ben being bold...Nick Harris should be blue

2001 was a horrible draft for Denver...but it is interesting that everyone of their picks except for Toviessi has played quality minutes for some team in the NFL.

[Rohirrim]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Mediator12 again.

Thanks for the study, Mediator. Now I'm getting that queasy "Shanny's gonna make a draft pick" feeling in my gut again.

[Rock Chalk]

Here is Denver since 2000:
Bold equals starter ... Navy, starter on another team and/or doing well ... red is solid contributor

2000 - not too terribly bad
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 15 Deltha O'Neal CB California
2 40 Ian Gold OLB Michigan
2 45 Kenoy Kennedy SS Arkansas
3 70 Chris Cole WR Texas A&M
4 101 Jerry Johnson DT Florida State
4 112 Cooper Carlisle G Florida
5 154 Muneer Moore WR Richmond
6 189 Mike Anderson FB Utah
7 214 Jarious Jackson QB Notre Dame
7 246 Leroy Fields WR Jackson State

2001 - blah
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 24 Willie Middlebrooks CB Minnesota
2 51 Paul Toviessi DE Marshall
3 87 Reggie Hayward DE Iowa State
4 113 Ben Hamilton G Minnesota
4 120 Nick Harris P California
6 190 Kevin Kasper WR Iowa

2002 - better than average
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 19 Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii
2 51 Clinton Portis RB Miami
3 96 Dorsett Davis DT Mississippi State
4 131 Sam Brandon FS Nevada-Las Vegas
5 144 Herb Haygood WR Michigan State
6 191 Jeb Putzier TE Boise State
7 228 Chris Young SS Georgia Tech
7 231 Monsanto Pope DT Virginia

2003 - whole lotta nothin so far
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 20 George Foster T Georgia
2 51 Terry Pierce OLB Kansas State
4 108 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma
4 114 Nick Eason DT Clemson
4 128 Bryant McNeal DE Clemson
5 157 Ben Claxton C Mississippi
5 158 Adrian Madise WR Texas Christian
6 194 Aaron Hunt DE Texas Tech
7 227 Clint Mitchell DE Florida
7 235 Ahmaad Galloway RB Alabama

2004 - too early to grade, but the first two look to be really nice with a few other potential solid contributors
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 17 D.J. Williams OLB Miami
2 41 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State
2 54 Darius Watts WR Marshall
3 85 Jeremy LeSueur DB Michigan
5 152 Jeff Shoate CB San Diego State
6 171 Triandos Luke WR Alabama
6 190 Josh Sewell C Nebraska
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State
7 247 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State

So, not as many in bold... but a number of misses.

Edited. Willie has started to contribute and Ben Hamilton is a starter. I added in Pierce as a dark red because I do believe that without injury he would have contributed solidly to the team and has on special teams.

[bloodsunday]

Edited. Willie has started to contribute and Ben Hamilton is a starter. I added in Pierce as a dark red because I do believe that without injury he would have contributed solidly to the team and has on special teams.
You can't do that. The fact is that Pierce was a second round pick and came with high expectations -- they thought he might replace Al as MLB. Pierce right now is a nothing, he's not even in the LB rotation.

[Odysseus]

I can't believe what a wash 2003 was. It really puts 2001 in perspective.

Great post! Rep!











REP!

[bloodsunday]

Edited. Willie has started to contribute and Ben Hamilton is a starter. I added in Pierce as a dark red because I do believe that without injury he would have contributed solidly to the team and has on special teams.
You know what else? If Pierce deserves red, so does Q. He won our tailback spot last season and could be in the mix this season. I doubt it, but he could.

[MileHighMania]

I edited that post to put Hamilton in bold (oversight on my part)... not sold on changing the others just yet.

[delany]

I edited that post to put Hamilton in bold (oversight on my part)... not sold on changing the others just yet.

Nick Harris has been a starter every year since denver cut him. ..so putting him in blue is obvious.

I agree on not changing the other ones being discussed.

[chanesaw]

Shouldn't Nick Harris be in blue?

[MileHighMania]

Ok... Nick has been painted.

[Jason in LA]

People around here bring up Reed like the Broncos were the only team to pass on him. 22 other teams passed on him as well. A number of teams after the Broncos picked passed on him.

By the end of this year nobody will be upset over it, because Lelie will be in the Pro Bowl.

[MileHighMania]

I do hope that Lelie has an outstanding Pro Bowl type of season... the potential is definitely there.

[Ballhawk]

2001 "Blah" ??? 3 starters and a reseve guy out of 6 picks is a better than average draft
2002, "better than average" ??? Putz, Ashley and CP (who netted us Champ) all have probowl type talent and are coming off great years.

Guess my expectations for draft picks are a little lower. I think if we had a couple top 10 picks, our draft would look a little better, not that we havn't missed on a couple of high picks but overall we have not been that bad.

[bloodsunday]

People around here bring up Reed like the Broncos were the only team to pass on him. 22 other teams passed on him as well. A number of teams after the Broncos picked passed on him.
Nah, I don't think that's the sentiment, or at least its not mine. I like Lelie and still believe he has more potential to tap into. There is no way for the Broncos to have known that it would have turned out this way, but its still okay for fans to lament.

Its just that Reed is an impact player at a position that has few. Its a huge luxury to have a player like that at safety. A bunch of teams passed on Randy Moss as well and I'm sure they are wondering why.

[BroncoInferno]

Lelie certainly is not a bust, but I personally expected him to be more of a difference maker at this point in his career.

I can't think of a player in the last 20 years who has averaged 20+ yards a catch on 50 or more receptions in a single season. Maybe someone could look into this. If you don't consider that "making an impact", I think your expectations may be a tad high. I would agree, though, that he is capable of even more.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

People around here bring up Reed like the Broncos were the only team to pass on him. 22 other teams passed on him as well. A number of teams after the Broncos picked passed on him.


and people also fail to mention that Reed was not one of Shanahan's targets, but neither was Lelie since no one expected him to be there. If AL was gone, Javon Walker would have been their pick.