Kiper Round 3

[bloodsunday]

By Mel Kiper Jr.
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive

Earlier in the week I wrote that the second round of the NFL draft is the place to find good bargains on players with first-round grades, and the same could be said about the third round. No fewer than 10 players in my third-round projection had first-round grades heading into last season or have the talent level of a first-rounder but have dropped down the board because of various factors.

Leading the way among that group is LSU cornerback Corey Webster, who had a top-15 overall grade entering the 2004 season but slipped steadily throughout the year due to nagging injuries that affected his closing speed. The same goes for Florida linebacker Channing Crowder. Just a few weeks ago Crowder was on my Big Board of the top 25 overall prospects and a part of my first-round projection, but concerns over knee and arch injuries have pushed him down the board as well.

Other projected third-rounders who fit into that category include Purdue quarterback Kyle Orton (injury), Florida State wide receiver Craphonso Thorpe (injury), Georgia wide receiver Fred Gibson (hands/size) and West Virginia wideout Chris Henry (run-ins with coaches). Orton, Gibson and Stanford tight end Alex Smith all made appearances on the Big Board at some point since the beginning of last season.

Overall, the offensive line leads all positions with 11 players (including two tight ends) projected to come off the board in the third round. Nine defensive backs make the list along with five defensive linemen, five wide receivers, three linebackers, two quarterbacks and two running backs.


65. San Francisco 49ers: Chris Canty, DE, Virginia
66. St. Louis Rams (from Miami): Corey Webster, CB, LSU
67. Cleveland Browns: Craphonso Thorpe, WR, Florida State
68. Tennessee Titans: Jason Campbell, QB, Auburn
69. Oakland Raiders: Kevin Burnett, LB, Tennessee
70. Miami Dolphins (from Chicago): Michael Roos, OT, Eastern Washington
71. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adam Snyder, OT, Oregon
72. Detroit Lions: Airese Currie, WR, Clemson
73. Houston Texans (from Dallas): Channing Crowder, LB, Florida
74. New York Giants: Adam Terry, OT, Syracuse
75. Arizona Cardinals: Scott Young, OG, BYU
76. Washington Redskins: Terrence Murphy, WR, Texas A&M
77. Philadelphia Eagles (from Kansas City): Alex Smith, TE, Stanford
78. Houston Texans: Atiyyah Ellison, DL, Missouri
79. Carolina Panthers: Jovan Haye, DE, Vanderbilt
80. Minnesota Vikings: Logan Mankins, OL, Fresno State
81. St. Louis Rams: Oshiomogho Atogwe, S, Stanford
82. New Orleans Saints: Adam Kieft, OT, Central Michigan
83. Cincinnati Bengals: Sean Considine, S, Iowa
84. Baltimore Ravens: Daven Holly, CB, Cincinnati
85. Seattle Seahawks: Jason Brown, C, North Carolina
86. Buffalo Bills: Kevin Everett, TE, Miami
87. Jacksonville Jaguars: Darren Sproles, RB, Kansas State
88. New York Jets: Chris Henry, WR, West Virginia
89. Green Bay Packers: Robert McCune, LB, Louisville
90. Atlanta Falcons: Stanford Routt, CB, Cincinnati
91.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from San Diego): Kyle Orton, QB, Purdue
92. Indianapolis Colts: Dustin Fox, CB, Ohio State
93. Pittsburgh Steelers: Vernand Morency, RB, Oklahoma State
94. Philadelphia Eagles: C.J. Mosley, DL, Missouri
95. Arizona Cardinals (from New England): Lynn McGruder, DL, Oklahoma
96. Tennessee Titans (compensatory pick): David Stewart, OT, Mississippi State
97. Denver Broncos (comp): Fred Gibson, WR, Georgia
98. Seattle Seahawks (comp): Travis Daniels, CB, LSU
99. Kansas City Chiefs (comp): Karl Paymah, CB, Washington State
100. New England Patriots (comp): Eric Ghiaciuc, OL, Central Michigan
101. Denver Broncos (comp): Nick Collins, CB, Bethune-Cookman

[bloodsunday]

25. Denver Broncos: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State
56. Denver Broncos: Evan Mathis, G, Alabama
97. Denver Broncos (comp): Fred Gibson, WR, Georgia
101. Denver Broncos (comp): Nick Collins, CB, Bethune-Cookman

This looks good and he addressed all of our "major" need areas. I think Fred Gibson is an exciting prospect. I don't know much about Mathis, but it seems quite a few people on this board think he is a good prospect. I would be satisfied with this day 1 draft if we replaced that #1 pick. I don't like FSU D-lineman, they seem to bust too often. I'd rather get Mike Patterson. I know he's a reach in terms of his grade, but that's more about the numbers. The guy can play, especially in a one gap system.

And if Jason Campbell falls to us at #56, I'd be pissed if we passed.

[Nuggets4]

On a personal homer level, I'd rather have Vincent Jackson than Gibson, but I like that mock.

[bloodsunday]

On a personal homer level, I'd rather have Vincent Jackson than Gibson, but I like that mock.
Home picks don't usually serve us well. I agree that Jackson is an exciting prospect, but Gibson has played against a higher level of competition. Although neither Georgia or UNC is exactly a WR factory!

[watermock]

Big Hair always screws us.

[Drek]

Looks like Kiper doesn't expect Vince Jackson to go on day 1 at all. I doubt that, the Broncos have shown interest, I think Shanahan will grab him if he's there with one of our comp. #3's, unless of course we've already added a WR, but even then he still might.

[bendog]

I really like Gibson. Jackson has better measurables, though. Anybody think he can be morphed into a "smallish" TE? Can he block at all?

[Drek]

Anybody think he can be morphed into a "smallish" TE? Can he block at all? Well, he'd need to put on a good amount of weight. At his height he'd probably need to weigh about 250 bare minimum to play TE. Also I doubt he's much of a blocker, but then, neither is Putz, Gates, Shockey, etc..

If we do get Jackson though I think he should stay at WR. He's got the measurables and talent to fill the role of posession reciever that McCaffery used to, which is something this team has lacked since he retired.

[bloodsunday]

I really like Gibson. Jackson has better measurables, though. Anybody think he can be morphed into a "smallish" TE? Can he block at all?
I don't know about another TE, but Jackson certainly has that potential. Sharpe was a WR in college. He'll have to learn to block a bit to make that happen.

[bloodsunday]

Well, he'd need to put on a good amount of weight. At his height he'd probably need to weigh about 250 bare minimum to play TE. Also I doubt he's much of a blocker, but then, neither is Putz, Gates, Shockey, etc..
Nah. Sharpe played at like 235. If he is going to be a quality blocker, he probably would need to be 250, but most of your play making tight ends today are blockers second anyway.

[Rascal]

Well, he'd need to put on a good amount of weight. At his height he'd probably need to weigh about 250 bare minimum to play TE. Also I doubt he's much of a blocker, but then, neither is Putz, Gates, Shockey, etc..

If we do get Jackson though I think he should stay at WR. He's got the measurables and talent to fill the role of posession reciever that McCaffery used to, which is something this team has lacked since he retired.

Yeap I'm actually hoping we get either him or Matt Jones to fill that possession WR role. Rod is kinda taken that role but that's not his place, plus he is on the downside of his career and who knows how much longer he will last.

Lelie and Watts to spread the field, and Jackson or Jones for the intermediate stuff. I'd take that in about 2-3 years.

[bendog]

I'm wondering whether pussy rule changes for WRs will eventually change the te position. The TE is the qb's friend - a big target over the middle, but safeties can't hit guys anymore. So will the TE go the way of the flanker, and be replaced by a 'largish' wr in 3 wr sets? If an offense can force a defense into basically playing nickle all day, a good offensive line can still run the ball.

I think that's really what was behind bringing Gold back. Indianapolis. 3 down linemen. 3 corners. 2 safties. 1 real linebacker. And Ian.

[Rascal]

I'm wondering whether pussy rule changes for WRs will eventually change the te position. The TE is the qb's friend - a big target over the middle, but safeties can't hit guys anymore. So will the TE go the way of the flanker, and be replaced by a 'largish' wr in 3 wr sets? If an offense can force a defense into basically playing nickle all day, a good offensive line can still run the ball.

I think that's really what was behind bringing Gold back. Indianapolis. 3 down linemen. 3 corners. 2 safties. 1 real linebacker. And Ian.


We are only going to be playing 10 guys? :) Maybe you meant 2 real linebackers.

[GaryBarnett]

Isn't Fred Gibson more along the lines of Ashley Lelie ???

[bendog]

yeah, I edited it from 4 down linemen but failed to put in 2 real linebackers. So, you got a 4-1(plus Gold)-3-2 OR 3-2(plus Gold) 3-2. I think the 3 linemen is the better balanced, and it gives more blitzing options.

The pussy TE that Lynch crushed is pretty small for a te too, as I recall. I'd think Gold could match up on him.

[bloodsunday]

Isn't Fred Gibson more along the lines of Ashley Lelie ???

Fred Gibson
Position: Wide Receiver
College: Georgia
Height: 6-4
Weight: 202
Hometown: Waycross, Ga.

Analysis | Injury Report | Agility | High School | Personal

OVERVIEW

Gibson has been a steady performer for the Bulldogs, teaming with fellow receiver Reggie Brown and quarterback David Greene to stake Georgia to a 42-10 record from 2001-04 (sixth best in the country), three straight seasons of 10 or more wins, three straight bowl victories and three consecutive national top-six finishes. The talented athlete also played for Georgia's basketball team as a freshman.

Gibson earned Super Prep All-Dixie, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Super Southern 100, Top 50 in Georgia and Class AAAAA All-State honors as a senior at Ware County (Waycross, Ga.) High School. During his final season, he caught 50 passes for 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns. As a junior, he was named the region's Offensive Player of the Year, first-team all-region, first-team all-area and Florida Times Union Super 24, finishing that season with 63 catches for over 1,200 yards and 13 scores. Gibson was also a standout basketball player, competing for the Georgia Stars, an AAU team, where he averaged 21 points per game as a high school junior. He was invited to play in the prestigious 2001 Georgia-Florida All-Star Game.

Gibson was thrust into action as a true freshman at Georgia. He started three games in 2001, ranking second on the team with 33 catches for 772 yards (23.4 average) and six touchdowns, setting a school single-season record by producing five 100-yard receiving games. He also handled the bulk of kickoff return chores, gaining 375 yards on 14 returns (26.8 average). He started eight games at flanker in 2002, coming up with 43 receptions for 758 yards (17.6 average) and four scores. Gibson also tallied 460 yards on 19 kickoff returns (24.2 average) and a touchdown. His 91-yard score was the longest kickoff return by a Bulldog since Lindsay Scott ran one back 99 yards against Louisiana State in 1978.

Gibson missed the Louisiana State game in 2003 with a pulled right hamstring, and the Vanderbilt and Alabama-Birmingham contests with a bone bruise on his left knee. He finished that campaign with 36 catches for 553 yards (15.4 average) and three scores. Gibson came back in 2004 determined to upgrade his performance. He received first-team All-Southeastern Conference honors from the league's coaches, as he hauled in a career-high 49 passes for 801 yards (16.3 average) and seven touchdowns as a senior.

Gibson closed out his Georgia career with 34 starting assignments in 45 games. He collected 161 catches for 2,884 yards (17.9 average) and 20 touchdowns. He joined Reggie Brown (2,008, 2001-04), Lindsay Scott (2,098, 1978-81), Brice Hunter (2,373, 1992-95) and Terrence Edwards (3,093, 1999-2002) as the only players in school history to gain over 2,000 yards receiving in a career. His 161 catches are topped only by Hunter (182) and Edwards (204) on the school's all-time record list.

Gibson also gained 866 yards on 35 kickoff returns (24.7 average), including a touchdown and carried the ball five times for 32 yards (6.4 average). His 35 returns rank sixth on the school's career-record list while his 866 yards rank fourth. Only Andre Hastings (1,096, 1990-92), Lindsay Scott (1152, 1978-81) and Gene Washington (1,637, 1973-76) gained more yards on kickoff returns in Georgia annals.

ANALYSIS

Positives: Has long arms and legs with adequate muscle definition … While his weight room figures are only adequate, he does a decent job of using strength and quickness to defeat the jam … Shows the ability to stick his cuts and work back for the ball … Has very good body control and tracking ability, showing no problems catching the pigskin over his shoulder … Has some short-area quickness to make the initial defender miss … Long strider with good quickness off the line of scrimmage where he can gain and defeat a defensive back's cushion … Better on linear routes where he can execute his speed cuts to separate and adjust to get into position down field … Has the leaping ability to get to the ball at its high point … Shows the natural hands to extend and pluck the ball away from the body's frame … Displays enough speed to take the shallow crossing route and go the distance.

Negatives: Has had a series of minor injuries that lead to questions about durability … His frame is built more like a sprinter's than a football player … Shows marginal academic intelligence and may struggle in a complicated system … His frame looks too lean to stand tall against press coverage at the next level … Needs to run crisper routes, as he does not always work back for the ball and will run his cuts on long patterns … Lacks courage and size to combat for the ball in traffic … Hears footsteps and will lose concentration, resulting in quite a few dropped passes … He is too conscious of the oncoming defender, and this affects his play when working in tight quarters … Has elusive running skills, but is not considered a speedy runner, as he gathers to accelerate after the catch … Will not get much yardage after securing the ball, unless he has a free lane in front of him … He is such a marginal blocker that he has been benched in the past due to this issue.

INJURY REPORT

2002 -- Sat out the Florida and Kentucky games after fracturing his left thumb against Vanderbilt (10/19) … Underwent surgery to repair the finger after the season.

2003 -- Sat out the Louisiana State game (9/20) with a right hamstring pull … Missed the Vanderbilt and Alabama-Birmingham games after he suffered a bone bruise in his left knee.

AGILITY

4.55 in 40-yard dash … 38½-inch vertical leap … 10-foot-6 broad jump … 4.14 short shuttle … 7.03 three cone drill.

HIGH SCHOOL

Attended Ware County (Waycross, Ga.) High School, playing football for coach Dan Ragle … Earned Super Prep All-Dixie Team, Atlanta Journal-Constitution Super Southern 100, Top 50 in Georgia and Class AAAAA All-State honors from the Georgia Sportswriters Association … As a senior, he caught 50 passes for 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns … As a junior, he was named the region's Offensive Player of the Year, first-team all-region, first-team all-area, and Florida Times Union Super 24, catching 63 passes for over 1,200 yards and 13 scores … Also a standout basketball player, playing for the Georgia Stars, an AAU team … Averaged 21 points per game as a high school junior … Invited to play in the 2001 Georgia-Florida All-Star Game.

PERSONAL

Speech Communications major … Born Oct. 26, 1981 … Resides in Waycross, Ga.

[bloodsunday]

Isn't Fred Gibson more along the lines of Ashley Lelie ???
He's heavier than Lelie, but they say he needs to be more physical, like Lelie.

[bpc]

That draft by Kiper sounds pretty accurate and even with the pickup of Gibson... for some reason we seem to be moving to the lanky WR types. Personally I would prefer Vincent Jackson although I've never seen him play so I don't know how explosive he is. At least with Gibson he's done it on a big level for a period of time being a starter for more then two years. Thats pretty impressive.

Anybody think there is an outside chance that we take WR in round 1? I hate to say it but the thought is creeping up in the back of my head. There is a lot of movement going on in the 1st round with defensive players. I think there is a chance a guy like Williamson or Roddy White slips down to #25 and we might end up taking them. 1st Plummer said that we will be looking for more weapons on offense, 2nd Sunquist said at the combine that he loves finding WR's who can play in Shanahan's version of the west coast offense. Just makes you wonder.

We don't actually have a NEED per say so I guess we could take the best player available. I've seen White play and he is pretty impressive. I've never actually seen Williamson play though. Has anybody here?

Matt Jones name is starting to creep around on this board as well... dark horse pick?

The more and more I hear Shanahan talk, the more desperate it sounds like we are trying to win it all before his contract comes up. Maybe he doesn't want to stay anymore so he might make some moves to get our offense more explosive.

[Pendejo]

I really like Vincent Jackson. His measurables seem to be what they should be for a pro. I understand the "well who have they played against rationale"...but you're either a football player or you're not. There have been plenty of stud prospects who've played against all the powerhouse schools, and kicked ass in college...but bombed in the pro's. On the flip side it's not unusual for a no name college kid to have a fine pro career. Small school's produce all pro's too.

I'm with the smart people who'd like to see Vincent Jackson and those meat hooks of his in a Donks uniform.

As to the thread in particular...I could live with that draft...although bloodsunday brings up an interesting point about FSU linemen. Their track record is not superb. Depending on who's falling on draft day...a trade down into the second looks good. More picks = More options.

[SoCalBronco]

25. Denver Broncos: Travis Johnson, DT, Florida State
56. Denver Broncos: Evan Mathis, G, Alabama
97. Denver Broncos (comp): Fred Gibson, WR, Georgia
101. Denver Broncos (comp): Nick Collins, CB, Bethune-Cookman

This looks good and he addressed all of our "major" need areas. I think Fred Gibson is an exciting prospect. I don't know much about Mathis, but it seems quite a few people on this board think he is a good prospect. I would be satisfied with this day 1 draft if we replaced that #1 pick. I don't like FSU D-lineman, they seem to bust too often. I'd rather get Mike Patterson. I know he's a reach in terms of his grade, but that's more about the numbers. The guy can play, especially in a one gap system.

And if Jason Campbell falls to us at #56, I'd be pissed if we passed.

This would be very, very good. Only thing i can complain about is the corner. Gibson is a steal at the end of the third. A steal. Mathis at 56 i would like alot and Johnson at 25 would be great. This would be an A- first day which is a minor miracle for odd years.

[TheNextStep]

The Raiders get Kevin Burnett in the 3rd round.

Hell, yeah! I definitely drink to that!

[Darkhawk24]

The Raiders get Kevin Burnett in the 3rd round.

Hell, yeah! I definitely drink to that!

Don't get excited it's only Mel Kiper. :)

[Obushma]

75. Arizona Cardinals: Scott Young, OG, BYU
Kiper has his head up his ass if he thinks Young will be drafted before Kemoeatu, hell, he doesnt even have him in the third round.

[Atlas]

Kiper knows his stuff. I like Johnson as a DT but I hope Denver doesn't go that way.

[longtimer]

I really do not want to see a CB drafted this year after we selected 2 or 3 last year. I hope we do not waste any picks on that position this year.

[Kaylore]

On a personal homer level, I'd rather have Vincent Jackson than Gibson, but I like that mock.
Me too. We always pick Colorado guys, and physically he's exactly what we're looking for.

[DBroncos4life]

Gibson is compared to Lelie. At 6'4" 200 pounds he looks like him but he isn't anywhere near as fast as him. I like the things I read about him though. Problem is he doesn't like to go over the middle. Now I still have high hopes for BJ Johnson but that would leave us with three deep guys. Not a bad thing with Rod, Putz and Alexander I think they can hold the middle down for one more year but we will need help over the middle soon.

[Drek]

I think they can hold the middle down for one more year but we will need help over the middle soon. I hope they don't have to. Someone like Jackson, Alex Smith from Stanford (letting us play a lot of two TE sets), etc. is what I'd like to see at some point in the 2nd or 3rd round of this draft. I personally want Rod out from between the hashmarks and instead hitting teams near the sidelines on fades and hooks. A two TE set is something I think we should really consider if we get a good recieving TE in the draft. We didn't have problems moving the ball last year, we had problems making TDs once we got close. Two TE and an Ed McCaffery type WR would do just that.

[DBroncos4life]

I hope they don't have to. Someone like Jackson, Alex Smith from Stanford (letting us play a lot of two TE sets), etc. is what I'd like to see at some point in the 2nd or 3rd round of this draft. I personally want Rod out from between the hashmarks and instead hitting teams near the sidelines on fades and hooks. A two TE set is something I think we should really consider if we get a good recieving TE in the draft. We didn't have problems moving the ball last year, we had problems making TDs once we got close. Two TE and an Ed McCaffery type WR would do just that.


I think you are under-rating what Alexander can do for us as a TE. He is more of a short to mid guy while Putz is a deeper guy. He isn't a redzone guy but he is a third down guy.

[clean]

Fred Gibson
Position: Wide Receiver

Negatives: Shows marginal academic intelligence and may struggle in a complicated system … He is such a marginal blocker that he has been benched in the past due to this issue.


The Broncos have a complicated system. Also, Bronco wide receivers need to be able to block.

[bloodsunday]

The Broncos have a complicated system. Also, Bronco wide receivers need to be able to block.
Well this is only one scout's assessment, its not written in stone that this guy is or is not that bad. He is a third round pick (in this projection) so it would be expected that he has some growing to do. Ashley Lelie was a 1st round pick and had to learn to block better.

[TheManeMan]

Wow...once again, you make a thread that was already posted...Dont read too well huh? :nono: Whateverz...

Mel Kipers Round 3 Mock Draft (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=24961)

[Drek]

I think you are under-rating what Alexander can do for us as a TE. He is more of a short to mid guy while Putz is a deeper guy. He isn't a redzone guy but he is a third down guy. No, I think Alexander will make a good #2 TE for the '05 season, but after '05 is there any real chance he'll even be on the team? Our offense is a tricky one, I'd rather get a solid TE like Alex Smith in now if we can get him at a reasonable pick and be ready come that future eventuality. Also, Alex Smith will bring more to the table when he's up to speed on the offense than Alexander can, so we'll then have two young, very good TEs in Smith and Putz.

[labronco]

No, I think Alexander will make a good #2 TE for the '05 season, but after '05 is there any real chance he'll even be on the team? Our offense is a tricky one, I'd rather get a solid TE like Alex Smith in now if we can get him at a reasonable pick and be ready come that future eventuality. Also, Alex Smith will bring more to the table when he's up to speed on the offense than Alexander can, so we'll then have two young, very good TEs in Smith and Putz.

we don't pick TE with first two rounds. we don't pick G/C with first two rounds.

no one has a clue as to whom we may be targeting, but most likely, we will go a DB or WR with first, even if we trade down. seems like there's a good depth in both positions, so chances are we'll pick a player who will contribute.

[bloodsunday]

we don't pick TE with first two rounds. we don't pick G/C with first two rounds.

no one has a clue as to whom we may be targeting, but most likely, we will go a DB or WR with first, even if we trade down. seems like there's a good depth in both positions, so chances are we'll pick a player who will contribute.
Well there is what are we going to do, and what do us arm chair GM's think we should do? Personally I think offense, WR, OG first. If a can't miss guy slips on the DL or CB, then consider him.

[labronco]

Well there is what are we going to do, and what do us arm chair GM's think we should do? Personally I think offense, WR, OG first. If a can't miss guy slips on the DL or CB, then consider him.

there's what we think is can't miss, then there's what the team thinks can't miss players.

overwhelming opinion is that there aren't many can't-miss players in this draft. mike williams is a can't miss player. he could have been a top 5 player last year, which is definitely better than this year as far as first round goes. except him, i am not sure there's anyone who is a cut above anyone else out there.

if mike williams drops out of first 10, it would be a mistake for us not draft up to get him. if san diego somehow grabs him, that would make me sick.

if david pollack drops into low teen, high twenties, i woundn't mind trading up for him

anyone else, imo, is pretty much on equal value all the way down to mid-second rounds, which makes me think we should trade down.

[bloodsunday]

overwhelming opinion is that there aren't many can't-miss players in this draft.
I'm not sure I agree with that, but it depends on your perception of can't miss. Are you talking about can't miss first rounders? Are you talking about can't miss impact players? I think there are some very good prospects, like Baas and Patterson, that don't grade out as first round players and are still in the can't miss category. Of course, with any player (FA or draft pick) there is always some margin for error, but these guys are pretty safe bets.

I have heard this is a "deep" draft, but just not an impact draft with a ton of first round talent.