We can close the gap with the elite teams by drafting better in the middle

[SoCalBronco]

I was looking at a list of our draft picks over the last five drafts and after breaking them down into hits/misses based on production compared to round drafted, what really stood out to me was that we are doing very well on Day 1, even better than i expected but there is a dramatic dropoff in the middle rounds. It isnt the type of dropoff normally expected from round to round all the way to the end. We start well, hit the wall and then make somewhat of a recovery late on day 2. On a chart, it would look like a reverse check mark. Eerily enough thats how our seasons have gone during the same time period as well.

Here is the breakdown from 2000-2004*:

By Round
1st 60%
2nd 71%
3rd 25%
4th 12.5%
5th 0%
6th 33%
7th 14%

* While it is early to categorize players from the 04 draft i did so anyway.

[delany]

interesting...

mythbuster in regards to commonly held opinions that Shanny is a great second day drafter...

What was your criteria in determining if they were a hit or miss? Games Played? Games Started? Production on the Field?

[SoCalBronco]

interesting...

mythbuster in regards to commonly held opinions that Shanny is a great second day drafter...

What was your criteria in determining if they were a hit or miss? Games Played? Games Started? Production on the Field?

I looked at production in comparison to draft status. Some of them were very difficult to call. Triandos Luke made some nice catches in the second half of the season and was only a 6th round pick but still i felt that was not quite enough to call him a "hit". By contrast, even though George Foster didnt play until the Green Bay game last year and had one solid season this year, even when i considered he was a 1st round pick, i didnt have much trouble classifying him as a hit. It is quite subjective. As a whole I estimated that as our hit rate over 5 years was 30% (13 of 43).

Broken down by position:
QB- Jackson, Mauck, Van Pelt Hit Rate: 0%
HB- Anderson, Portis, Griffin, Galloway, Bell Hit Rate: 60%
FB- Miree Hit Rate: 0%
WR- Cole, Moore, Fields, Kaspar, Lelie, Madise, Watts, Luke Hit Rate: 29%
TE- Putzier Hit Rate: 100%
OG/C- Carlisle, Hamilton, Claxton, Sewell Hit Rate: 25%
OT- Foster Hit Rate: 100%
DE- Toviessi, Hayward, McNeal, Hunt, Mitchell Hit Rate: 20%
DT- Johnson, Davis, Pope, Eason Hit Rate: 25%
LB- Gold, Pierce, Williams Hit Rate: 66%
CB- O'Neal, Middlebrooks, LeSueur, Shoate Hit Rate: 0%
S- Kennedy, Brandon, Young- Hit Rate: 33%
ST- Harris - Hit Rate: 0%

[delany]

Very cool SoCal...this surprised me....

Now could you cross-reference against all the teams and there performance over the same time span? :)

[Ballhawk]

Socal- I think you need to take this a bit further and breakdown expectations vs hit or miss and Starter vs role player. You may want to weight it too vs round selection, example CP in the 2nd round was a hit ++, as he netted Champ a Hit for a 7th overall pick and another 2nd. His selection definately carries more weight then say Kennedy. Opposite that Oneal was a hit-- not only did he not hit based on where he was picked but for compensation we received a forth rounder, thus he had more value than a miss.

As for round selected I do not think a 5-7th round pick is a miss if they get PT as a backup.

I want spredsheets packed with formulas :)

[delany]

I want an online HTML pivot table!

[SoCalBronco]

Socal- I think you need to take this a bit further and breakdown expectations vs hit or miss and Starter vs role player. You may want to weight it too vs round selection, example CP in the 2nd round was a hit ++, as he netted Champ a Hit for a 7th overall pick and another 2nd. His selection definately carries more weight then say Kennedy. Opposite that Oneal was a hit-- not only did he not hit based on where he was picked but for compensation we received a forth rounder, thus he had more value than a miss.

As for round selected I do not think a 5-7th round pick is a miss if they get PT as a backup.

I want spredsheets packed with formulas :)

yeah, like i said its difficult to make the call sometimes. Its hazy line drawing. For example with Cooper Carlisle, he was only a 4th round pick, but on the other hand, he has been a career backup but for a few games at the end of this last season. I thought that was a Miss. Interesting that you brought up O'Neal, thats right, he got us value equivalent to a late third. I still thought that a few nice games mixed in with alot of crappy games plus late third value added at the end of his bronco career still wasnt even close to justifying Deltha as a hit considering he was a 1st rounder (and the highest first rounder we had during this period). I think Foster had equal to or slightly less quality games this season alone than Deltha had in four years combined.And i agree with you, you dont have to be a starter to be a hit. Pope was the only DT Hit i counted over the last five years and as a starter he is a below average player. But he is a quality backup and was a 7th rounder, that was enough for me to call him a hit.

[Odysseus]

Great post SoCal. Number one in my book.

I got the same view of things using a thumb to the wind. These guys need to eat breakfast (or something) on day two.

Day two seems to be where they go from the hip more. I think they should stay conservative here because the middle rounds tend to go really bad. They do great in the late rounds. I would find a way to roll up the numbers from after the draft.

[Odysseus]

We traded O'Neal for 17th pick overall and drafted D.J. Williams. That done we didn't have to waste any of our picks fixing old business.

We traded Portis for Champ Bailey and Round 2 (41 overall) picking up Tatum Bell. That basically freed up our second round pick where we picked Watts.

Not bad.

I have no idea what to make of Shoates or some those middle picks. I want to say "GO BRONCOS" but I just stop and stare like why is this piece of crap on my team? I don't mean to. It's involuntary.

[Atlas]

I looked at production in comparison to draft status. Some of them were very difficult to call. Triandos Luke made some nice catches in the second half of the season and was only a 6th round pick but still i felt that was not quite enough to call him a "hit". By contrast, even though George Foster didnt play until the Green Bay game last year and had one solid season this year, even when i considered he was a 1st round pick, i didnt have much trouble classifying him as a hit. It is quite subjective. As a whole I estimated that as our hit rate over 5 years was 30% (13 of 43).

Broken down by position:
QB- Jackson, Mauck, Van Pelt Hit Rate: 0%
HB- Anderson, Portis, Griffin, Galloway, Bell Hit Rate: 60%
FB- Miree Hit Rate: 0%
WR- Cole, Moore, Fields, Kaspar, Lelie, Madise, Watts, Luke Hit Rate: 29%
TE- Putzier Hit Rate: 100%
OG/C- Carlisle, Hamilton, Claxton, Sewell Hit Rate: 25%
OT- Foster Hit Rate: 100%
DE- Toviessi, Hayward, McNeal, Hunt, Mitchell Hit Rate: 20%
DT- Johnson, Davis, Pope, Eason Hit Rate: 25%
LB- Gold, Pierce, Williams Hit Rate: 66%
CB- O'Neal, Middlebrooks, LeSueur, Shoate Hit Rate: 0%
S- Kennedy, Brandon, Young- Hit Rate: 33%
ST- Harris - Hit Rate: 0%
I think these figures are skeewed. To Me Both Brandon and Young were both hits. They are still on the team and they are contributing.

I don't understand how you come about this at all. Are you saying Pierce isn't a hit because he hasn't broken into the starting lineup??

Pope was a 7th round draft pick and has played significant amount of plays BUT he isn't a hit??

You don't have Carlisle as being a hit??

How can you have Mauck and Van Pelt as misses? They were 7th round picks and they made the roster. Hell, Maulk made it to 3rd string!

You need three categories.
1) HIT
2) miss
3) too early to tell

Lesure and Shoate and all the other players that are young and still on the roster would fall into the too early to tell.

No one can call Middlebrooks a miss now. HE is a special teams demon and last year he played well in the secondary.

[fontaine]

I think these figures are skeewed. To Me Both Brandon and Young were both hits. They are still on the team and they are contributing.


Brandon and Young are both weak players that haven't developed. Last year the Broncos chose to field two SS that lacked coverage abilities rather than playing either of these two losers.

I don't understand how you come about this at all. Are you saying Pierce isn't a hit because he hasn't broken into the starting lineup??

Pierce is strictly a MLB because he doesn't have the coverage or zone recognition skills to play outside. I wouldn't call him a bust but at the same time he's a bust as a Bronco MLB.

Pope was a 7th round draft pick and has played significant amount of plays BUT he isn't a hit??

You don't have Carlisle as being a hit??
Both of these players are hits IMO.


No one can call Middlebrooks a miss now. HE is a special teams demon and last year he played well in the secondary.

Middlebrooks is a bust until he can hold down a starting job for close to 16 games, instead of just being "finally healthy", "ready to compete in training camp", "looking forward to getting of IR."

[Atlas]

Brandon and Young are both weak players that haven't developed. Last year the Broncos chose to field two SS that lacked coverage abilities rather than playing either of these two losers.



."

I disagree We don't know what they can do yet. Shanny likes them both that is why Denver carried 5 safeties on the roster last year.

You can't call Middlebrooks a miss. You can't make a stance that Middlebrooks must START 16 games of he is a bust.. There have been many solid players that never started 16 games in a season. The problem with this is as of right now Middlebrooks is a miss BUT if he playes well this year he might be a hit?? WTF! Middlebrooks might fall in the too early to tell but you can't say he is a miss.

[Theway]

I do something similar, except that I (subjectively) assign grades to each player picked. I give a 4 for a pro bowler, 3 for a starter, 2 for a "rotation" player, 1 for special teamer/backup, and 0 if they never contributed at all. Based on those values, this is the averages I get (using 1999-2004 drafts) for the Broncos

1 - 2.83
2 - 2.00
3 - 0.92
4 - 1.17
5 - 0.21
6 - 1.13
7 - 0.50
U - 0.46

The Broncos seem to always get a starter in the first round, and a contributor in the second. They don't get much in the third/fourth, the fifth round is dreadful, but the 6th round picks up (thanks to Mike Anderson and Putzier). They do as well in the 7th as they do with undrafted free agents.

Bottom line, same as SoCal, the Broncos need to drastically improve their mid round selections.

[delany]

Middlebrooks is currently a bust...RELATIVE to where he was drafted...

and really either way it doesn't change the standard distribution that much. If anything it underscores SoCals point even more.

[fontaine]

Middlebrooks is currently a bust...RELATIVE to where he was drafted...

Since Middlebrooks was drafted in 2001 he's started just one game. For the first three seasons he didn't see the field as a defensive player. This is even more heinous when you consider this team was so desperate for CBs it was starting free agents off the street.

Some laugh at Courtney Brown being a huge bust and injury riddled player, but Willie Middlebrooks makes him look like a hall of fame pick.

[fontaine]

You can't call Middlebrooks a miss. You can't make a stance that Middlebrooks must START 16 games of he is a bust.. There have been many solid players that never started 16 games in a season. The problem with this is as of right now Middlebrooks is a miss BUT if he playes well this year he might be a hit?? WTF! Middlebrooks might fall in the too early to tell but you can't say he is a miss.


Look closer. I never called Middlebrooks a miss.

I called him a bust because that's what he has been since the day he was drafted. Instead of getting upset at people calling him a bust, maybe you should get upset at Middlebust for sucking.

[DrFate]

I looked at production in comparison to draft status. Some of them were very difficult to call. Triandos Luke made some nice catches in the second half of the season and was only a 6th round pick but still i felt that was not quite enough to call him a "hit". By contrast, even though George Foster didnt play until the Green Bay game last year and had one solid season this year, even when i considered he was a 1st round pick, i didnt have much trouble classifying him as a hit. It is quite subjective. As a whole I estimated that as our hit rate over 5 years was 30% (13 of 43).

Broken down by position:
QB- Jackson, Mauck, Van Pelt Hit Rate: 0%
HB- Anderson, Portis, Griffin, Galloway, Bell Hit Rate: 60%
FB- Miree Hit Rate: 0%
WR- Cole, Moore, Fields, Kaspar, Lelie, Madise, Watts, Luke Hit Rate: 29%
TE- Putzier Hit Rate: 100%
OG/C- Carlisle, Hamilton, Claxton, Sewell Hit Rate: 25%
OT- Foster Hit Rate: 100%
DE- Toviessi, Hayward, McNeal, Hunt, Mitchell Hit Rate: 20%
DT- Johnson, Davis, Pope, Eason Hit Rate: 25%
LB- Gold, Pierce, Williams Hit Rate: 66%
CB- O'Neal, Middlebrooks, LeSueur, Shoate Hit Rate: 0%
S- Kennedy, Brandon, Young- Hit Rate: 33%
ST- Harris - Hit Rate: 0%

Nice posts - too bad Denver can't draft competent DBs AND we may take another this year. :(

All 4 of those CBs were day 1 picks, correct? I know O'Neal and Middlebrooks were round 1 guys.

Also - O'Neal was a 'hit' and a 'bust' both. Pro Bowl one year, dog house the next.

[DarkHorse30]

Nice posts - too bad Denver can't draft competent DBs AND we may take another this year. :(

All 4 of those CBs were day 1 picks, correct? I know O'Neal and Middlebrooks were round 1 guys.

Also - O'Neal was a 'hit' and a 'bust' both. Pro Bowl one year, dog house the next.

Tory James was a solid #2 CB. Not sure why Denver let him go (I'm going to blame it on Robinson), but he has been a playmaker since being drafted (mid-2nd round, 96)

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Nice analysis SoCal. Another myth perpetuated by sports talk hosts destroyed.

I know you don't have tiem to do it, but it would be fun to see the Broncs compared to other teams. Just based on whether the player makes the team, I have read that the Broncs are in the top 1/3 for the first three rounds, thus breaking the myth that the Broncs cannot draft.

Like any personnel move in any business the draft and FA are crap shoots. You hit some and you miss some.

[Odysseus]

There is something that no statistic is going to capture, no fan will ever see, no sports head will ever fathom. It is the player who has heart. It's that Joe lunchbox player who every play is out there, who realizes every down might be his last and that he's only got this one play to make a difference. THAT is the guys we want on the team. He won't make the highlights. Fans won't pick him when the teams wins and will fault him when the team loses but it's this guy who goes unseen that just flat out makes plays...this is the guy. Parity is all about THIS guy. The guy whose willing to screw up again and again but on a key play that nobody will even remember until years later he'll make a third down stop or he'll catch the ball making a key first down.

This is too easy. All this dispute over hit or miss and never any discussion over heart. Why would they even play this stupid game if it was only about the numbers?

[yavoon]

There is something that no statistic is going to capture, no fan will ever see, no sports head will ever fathom. It is the player who has heart. It's that Joe lunchbox player who every play is out there, who realizes every down might be his last and that he's only got this one play to make a difference. THAT is the guys we want on the team. He won't make the highlights. Fans won't pick him when the teams wins and will fault him when the team loses but it's this guy who goes unseen that just flat out makes plays...this is the guy. Parity is all about THIS guy. The guy whose willing to screw up again and again but on a key play that nobody will even remember until years later he'll make a third down stop or he'll catch the ball making a key first down.

This is too easy. All this dispute over hit or miss and never any discussion over heart. Why would they even play this stupid game if it was only about the numbers?

keyshawn, sapp and gruden all got superbowl rings.

heart only goes so far, no matter how many times u watch rudy. GO RUDY!

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

There is something that no statistic is going to capture, no fan will ever see, no sports head will ever fathom. It is the player who has heart. It's that Joe lunchbox player who every play is out there, who realizes every down might be his last and that he's only got this one play to make a difference. THAT is the guys we want on the team. He won't make the highlights. Fans won't pick him when the teams wins and will fault him when the team loses but it's this guy who goes unseen that just flat out makes plays...this is the guy. Parity is all about THIS guy. The guy whose willing to screw up again and again but on a key play that nobody will even remember until years later he'll make a third down stop or he'll catch the ball making a key first down.

This is too easy. All this dispute over hit or miss and never any discussion over heart. Why would they even play this stupid game if it was only about the numbers?

Exactly - It is players like Rod Smith and Mecklenburg that make the game. Not all talent, no heart guys like Meshawn, Moss and Boston.

[SoCalBronco]

Atlas, i classified Pope as a hit. He was the only DT to be classified as a hit. And it was for the reasons you state, he is a contributor, albeit not more than a below average starter but still thats good for a 7th rounder. Cooper is a miss because he has been a career backup. He was a 4th round pick. I would expect a little more to categorize him as a Hit. Pierce is definitely a miss so far. He simply cannot get onto the field. You have to be able to contribute in some meaningful way beyond special teams if your a 2nd round pick. If he was really lighting it up at either MLB or OLB they would have found a way to get him on the field. Currently it doesnt look like the 3-4 will be our base defense, so that means the 4-3 and our starters are set. Pierce has had 2 years to break into the lineup and he hasnt done it. They didnt have a problem ****ing the positions up for Gold to be on the weakside, but they didnt do that with Pierce for the middle before. He is a miss by any measure. You have to be on the field and contribute significantly in a non special teams way if your a 2nd round pick. I dont think the fact that a guy remains on a team is indicative of much. We kept Jarious Jackson forever. We have kept alot of people who everyone agrees is trash for several years.

[Odysseus]

keyshawn, sapp and gruden all got superbowl rings.

heart only goes so far, no matter how many times u watch rudy. GO RUDY!

It's still a team sport. That means whether you are grateful to the circimstances that got you there or not it's a bill that still comes due. It's too bad you don't like players with heart. It says more about you than it does about me.

[Cito Pelon]

How many super-studs, though?

Out of five consecutive drafts there was only two "super-studs" - guys that played at Probowl level from day one:

DJ Williams, Portis

And out of the rest of them, I believe only Gold, Mike Anderson, and O'Neal have had any type of league honors. Anderson O Rookie of Year, and Gold and O'Neal to the ProBowl (and I may be wrong about Gold to the probowl). And that's not multiple appearances in league honors, that's once only.

The lack of studs is what stands out to me. You can't go deep into the playoffs without drafting studs. Just one a year, ya gotta get one a year. And no Probowlers out of FA either, until Lynch and Bailey last year.

[SoCalBronco]

How many super-studs, though?

Out of five consecutive drafts there was only two "super-studs" - guys that played at Probowl level from day one:

DJ Williams, Portis


Maybe that suggests something about where we should be trying to draft from.

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