Raider Bill
11-09-2004, 08:08 PM
From swinging state to next swinging state?
California growth patterns spell bad news for Democrats
By JIM MOHR, Staff Writer
It's an Alec Baldwin nightmare, but the numbers don't lie. California, the bastion of Democratic voters since Clinton didn't inhale, could be the swing state in 2008.
While Sen. John Kerry won the state by 10 percentage points getting about 5.5 million votes to President Bush's roughly 4.5 million his votes came from coastal counties where new growth by 2008 is expected to rise by only 1.2 million people.
Of the inland counties that voted for Kerry, Alpine, Sacramento, Imperial, Yolo and Lake, population is expected to climb by 400,000.
On the other hand, of the counties that voted for Bush 37 of the state's 58 32 were inland and expect to grow by 1.8 million people, with 900,000 of those moving into the Inland Empire.
Bush's five counties on the coast San Diego, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Orange and Del Norte also will see a population increase of 900,000.
The tally at the end is 2.7 million new people in Republican counties and 1.6 million new folks in Democratic counties by 2008.
The other trend leaning California toward the center is the increase in voters declining to state party affiliation. In the 2000 election, only 14 percent of those registered would not state a party. Four years later, the declined-to-state number was 17 percent and could reach 20 percent by 2008.
"This is because California has a history of being an anti-party state,' said Mark Petracca, a political science professor at UC Irvine. "What's happening is that voters are replacing their political parties with candidate-centered politics. '
"The biggest, best form of this type of movement is what happened with Arnold Schwarzenneger,' Petracca said. "Even though he ran as a Republican, in truth, he could have run as a member of the black and blue party and he would have won.'
This attitude also extended to the Nov. 2 presidential election.
Redlands resident Candace Agnew voted for Bush on Tuesday. But the registered Republican could "definitely' vote for a Democratic president if he was for abortion rights, for stem-cell research and pro-war. As other Bush supporters said Friday, she "picked the lesser of two evils.'
On the other side of the political spectrum, Fred Fleckenstein comes from a long line of Democrats.
However, the last time he voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, the initials on the ballot were JFK, and they didn't belong to John Forbes Kerry.
The Victorville resident, who supports gay marriage and stem-cell research, said he would be willing to swing back again for someone "a little more conservative, and a little more in tune with moral issues (than the Democratic party).'
On Tuesday, party allegiances seemed to fall by the wayside, especially in traditional Democratic counties, such as Merced and Sacramento.
Merced County voters, which are 45 percent Democratic and 43 percent Republican, picked Bush by 14 percentage points. In Sacramento County, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 43 percent to 35 percent, Kerry won by just 1.2 percentage points.
What it shows is a trending toward the middle, said political science professor Thad Kousser of UC San Diego.
Silvia Rodarte, a registered Independent, agreed.
Political parties don't mean anything, Rodarte said. "What matters is what (candidates) are offering to us, their ideas.'
With 55 electoral votes at stake in 2008, Californians can expect to hear plenty of thoughts from those seeking the Oval Office, and this time the state will be the swing in the playground of presidential politics.
http://www.sbsun.com/Stories/0,1413,208~12588~2517102,00.html
California growth patterns spell bad news for Democrats
By JIM MOHR, Staff Writer
It's an Alec Baldwin nightmare, but the numbers don't lie. California, the bastion of Democratic voters since Clinton didn't inhale, could be the swing state in 2008.
While Sen. John Kerry won the state by 10 percentage points getting about 5.5 million votes to President Bush's roughly 4.5 million his votes came from coastal counties where new growth by 2008 is expected to rise by only 1.2 million people.
Of the inland counties that voted for Kerry, Alpine, Sacramento, Imperial, Yolo and Lake, population is expected to climb by 400,000.
On the other hand, of the counties that voted for Bush 37 of the state's 58 32 were inland and expect to grow by 1.8 million people, with 900,000 of those moving into the Inland Empire.
Bush's five counties on the coast San Diego, Ventura, San Luis Obispo, Orange and Del Norte also will see a population increase of 900,000.
The tally at the end is 2.7 million new people in Republican counties and 1.6 million new folks in Democratic counties by 2008.
The other trend leaning California toward the center is the increase in voters declining to state party affiliation. In the 2000 election, only 14 percent of those registered would not state a party. Four years later, the declined-to-state number was 17 percent and could reach 20 percent by 2008.
"This is because California has a history of being an anti-party state,' said Mark Petracca, a political science professor at UC Irvine. "What's happening is that voters are replacing their political parties with candidate-centered politics. '
"The biggest, best form of this type of movement is what happened with Arnold Schwarzenneger,' Petracca said. "Even though he ran as a Republican, in truth, he could have run as a member of the black and blue party and he would have won.'
This attitude also extended to the Nov. 2 presidential election.
Redlands resident Candace Agnew voted for Bush on Tuesday. But the registered Republican could "definitely' vote for a Democratic president if he was for abortion rights, for stem-cell research and pro-war. As other Bush supporters said Friday, she "picked the lesser of two evils.'
On the other side of the political spectrum, Fred Fleckenstein comes from a long line of Democrats.
However, the last time he voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, the initials on the ballot were JFK, and they didn't belong to John Forbes Kerry.
The Victorville resident, who supports gay marriage and stem-cell research, said he would be willing to swing back again for someone "a little more conservative, and a little more in tune with moral issues (than the Democratic party).'
On Tuesday, party allegiances seemed to fall by the wayside, especially in traditional Democratic counties, such as Merced and Sacramento.
Merced County voters, which are 45 percent Democratic and 43 percent Republican, picked Bush by 14 percentage points. In Sacramento County, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 43 percent to 35 percent, Kerry won by just 1.2 percentage points.
What it shows is a trending toward the middle, said political science professor Thad Kousser of UC San Diego.
Silvia Rodarte, a registered Independent, agreed.
Political parties don't mean anything, Rodarte said. "What matters is what (candidates) are offering to us, their ideas.'
With 55 electoral votes at stake in 2008, Californians can expect to hear plenty of thoughts from those seeking the Oval Office, and this time the state will be the swing in the playground of presidential politics.
http://www.sbsun.com/Stories/0,1413,208~12588~2517102,00.html