Four More Years: Brought to you by Diebold

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Two articles are all you need to play this fun game for all the family.

Grab one site which lists the exit polls before they were "corrected.” Correction is the procedure by which the exit polls are retrofitted to match the figures provided by the vote counting machines. It is easily done by changing the exit poll results, such as the 2.00 a.m. flip-flop of the Nevada exit poll scores which was done without any change to the sample size.

A slightly less obvious sleight of hand is to alter the weighting. Weighting is the name for a multiplier used to correct sample subgroups to match the proportions in the whole of a state population. Thus an exit poll can be ‘corrected’ by saying something to the effect,
“Oh well, the vote results show we must have under sampled Republicans and therefore we’ll multiply that subgroup of the exit poll sample by 1.5 to make our results fit the figures the ballot counting machines are spitting out.”

Here is one list as an example of raw exit poll data:
http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386

Then take a look at the results by state, such as on this chart:

http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults

The Bush people argue that the exit polls are skewed by the methodology employed. It is odd that they don’t say what that error producing part of the methodology might be. A skew means a systematic error is introduced by the test protocol and causes a consistent shift in one direction.

IF this was true, then all the exit polls would show the same sort of shift from 'actual' results.

The GOP offer an alternative argument that the exit polls are not large enough samples and therefore the results are off by a large random error.

IF this was true, then the exit polls should scatter on either side of the actual result,, especially if the final result is close to 50/50.

What do we actually see when comparing exit polls with actual results?

There is skew - but ONLY in states which the Republicans had previously stated to be target states in play. The skew is in the same direction every time; that is to say in favor of Bush.

The exit poll results are not scattered about the mean as the alternative theory predicts. They are all on the Kerry side of the vote counts as issued by the states except for a hand full of states which hit amazingly close to the exit poll figures.

Here are the figures. They list the four contemporaneous and uncorrected exit polls. Kerry is listed first and Bush second in each pair of figures. Published = the figure presented as the vote count as of 10.00 a.m. EST on 11/3/04

AZ Poll one 45-55 Final 45-55 Published 44-55
CO Poll one 48-51 2nd 48-50 3rd 46-53 Published 46-53
LA Poll one 42-57 Final 43-56 Published 42-57
MI Poll one 51-48 Published 51-48 Published 51-48
IOWA Poll one 49-49 3rd 50-48 Final 49-49 Published 49-50
NM Poll one 50-48 2nd 50-48 3rd 50-48 Final 50-49 Published 49-50
ME 3rd 55-44 Published 53-45
NV: 3rd 48-49 Published 48-51
AR: 3rd 45-54 Published 45-54
MO Final 46-54 Published 46-53

These tracking polls were right where you would expect them to be and within the margin of error. However, if we look at some other states, the figures are beyond curious. either the exit polls were wrong or the vote count is wrong:

WI Poll one 52-48 3rd 51-46 Final 52-47 Published 50-49
PA Poll one 60-40 3rd 54-45 Final 53-46 Published 51-49
OH Poll one 52-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 49-51
FL Poll one 51-48 2nd 50-49 3rd 50-49 Final 51-49 Published 47-52
MINN Poll one 58-40 3rd 58-40 Final 54-44 Published 51-48
NH Poll one 57-41 3rd 58-41 Published 50-49
NC Poll one 3rd 49-51 Final 48-52 Published 43-56

Taking the figures and measuring the size and direction of the poll to supposed vote count discrepancy, we find:

WI Bush plus 4%
PA Bush plus 5%
OH Bush plus 4%
FL Bush plus 7%
MINN Bush plus 7%
NH Bush plus 15%
NC Bush plus 9%

Our election results appear to have been tampered with to give Bush some unearned electoral votes.

Again.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

http://www.bartcop.com/screwed-again-w.jpg

[Needa Pass Rush]

LOL Such a gracious LOSER!

[Kaylore]

YAAAAAAYYY!!!!! He's Back with his wacky crap! Notice how he ignores the states where exit polls and election results were contrary but in favor of Kerry. Guess its ok to mess up exit polls if its for Kerry.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Polls are a forum for liars.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

How does it feel knowing your guy couldn't win an election that wasn't rigged?

But then, when has Little Caligula ever won anything fair-and-square in his entire life?

[Kaylore]

How does it feel knowing your guy couldn't win an election that wasn't rigged?

But then, when has Little Caligula ever won anything fair-and-square in his entire life?
I don't know what I enjoy more: Bush creaming you guys or your reality meltdown.... LOSER!!!!

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Bush didn't "cream" anybody.

His buddy Wally in Ohio just came through as promised.

Bush has never won a game that wasn't rigged in his entire fraudulent life.

[Kaylore]

Bush didn't "cream" anybody.

His buddy Wally in Ohio just came through as promised.

Bush has never won a game that wasn't rigged in his entire fraudulent life.
That's great! Ok, my turn. Once there was a great Dragon. This Dragon terrorized the peasants of Camelot. A great knight appeared in the kingdom....

[Bronco_Beerslug]

I don't know what I enjoy more: Bush creaming you guys or your reality meltdown.... LOSER!!!!
140,000 vote difference makes Kerry president and you call that creaming someone? That's reality not your perception and the reality is that most here reveling in the narrowest of wins would be screaming murder if Kerry did in fact win Ohio by that very tiny margin.

[Kaylore]

140,000 vote difference makes Kerry president and you call that creaming someone? That's reality not your perception and the reality is that most here reveling in the narrowest of wins would be screaming murder if Kerry did in fact win Ohio by that very tiny margin.
Oh let's not forget that oft touted "Popular vote" that mattered a whole lot last election, but now it seems to matter little. And I guess ousting your minority leader, and gaining in the house and the Senate is also just "my perception." Point taken.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

140,000 vote difference makes Kerry president and you call that creaming someone? That's reality not your perception and the reality is that most here reveling in the narrowest of wins would be screaming murder if Kerry did in fact win Ohio by that very tiny margin.

Just like they screamed murder for eight years while trying to undo two Clinton elections.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Oh let's not forget that oft touted "Popular vote" that mattered a whole lot last election, but now it seems to matter little.

Al Gore didn't need the miracle of Diebold to "win" the popular vote.

[watermock]

Guess what LABF....Bush stole the election again.

Diebold rigged their Machines. What are you going to do about it? Bush pulled another election fraud.

What are you going to do about it? Even tho Democrats were slashing tires and had Ohio loaded with Bugs Bunny and Dick Tracy?

Your an idiot and I had beating your dimwit head.

Didn't you predict a Kerry Landslide? It's hillarious. You haven't been able to predict your own bowel movement.

[Kaylore]

Al Gore didn't need the miracle of Diebold to "win" the popular vote.
Wow, that's very interesting. Hey Look! Bush is elected to four more years!!! :giggle:

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Oh let's not forget that oft touted "Popular vote" that mattered a whole lot last election, but now it seems to matter little. And I guess ousting your minority leader, and gaining in the house and the Senate is also just "my perception." Point taken.
You keep implying that some of these politicians are ''your" as in I vote party lines. I don't. I haven't in over 25 years. You'll notice I use the term "Bush supporter" instead of "your" party candidate etc... in most my replies. Maybe I'm being too generous in thinking that most people actually take the time to educate themselves about each candidate and don't vote strictly party lines.

[watermock]

First it was the hanging chad. BTW, this ballot was designed by a Democrat. How amusing.

So they spend millions to have electronic balloting and it's another chance for idiot boy to complain.

The only thing that would make idiot boy happy would be if he could personally examine every ballot.

[Kaylore]

First it was the hanging chad. BTW, this ballot was designed by a Democrat. How amusing.

So they spend millions to have electronic balloting and it's another chance for idiot boy to complain.

The only thing that would make idiot boy happy would be if he could personally examine every ballot.
Rove was so amazing he got around the several thousand camera crews that were stationed at the polls Bush pulled ahead of. He also snuck by 6700 lawyers. He's so sneaky!

[Garcia Bronco]

Slm

[watermock]

Rove was disguised as Jimmy Carter.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

140,000 vote difference makes Kerry president and you call that creaming someone? That's reality not your perception and the reality is that most here reveling in the narrowest of wins would be screaming murder if Kerry did in fact win Ohio by that very tiny margin.

So we're playing the, if we only had X many more votes, we would have won game?

If Bush got 140k more votes, he wins these states: Hawaii (-37k), Wisconsin (-11k), Oregon (-77k), and New Hampshire (-10k). That puts the EC at 311 to 227. Fun game isn't it?

Here's reality: Kerry lost.

[errand]

How does it feel knowing your guy couldn't win an election that wasn't rigged?

But then, when has Little Caligula ever won anything fair-and-square in his entire life?.


3.5 million more votes than Kerry....that's MILLION

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

3.5 million more votes than Kerry....that's MILLION

Your buddy Wally in Ohio kept his promise (as did the rest of the GOP's good ol' boy network in the predominantly Dem and African American precincts in FL and OH.)

Same sh*t, different election/battleground state.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

3.5 million more votes than Kerry....that's MILLION

Your buddy Wally in Ohio kept his promise (as did the rest of the GOP's good ol' boy network in the predominantly Dem and African American precincts in FL and OH.)

Same sh*t, different election/battleground state.


Just an illustration of the single digit IQ's of those who believe the lies of the Kerry campaign

[baja]

Today I'm alive who knows tomorrow I may die - think I'll enjoy today - until there are no more.

[Kaylore]

Just an illustration of the single digit IQ's of those who believe the lies of the Kerry campaign
It's worse than that. Even the Kerry campaign doesn't believe this.

[enjolras]

First it was the hanging chad. BTW, this ballot was designed by a Democrat. How amusing.

So they spend millions to have electronic balloting and it's another chance for idiot boy to complain.

The only thing that would make idiot boy happy would be if he could personally examine every ballot.

I'm not saying the election was rigged. There are questions to be answered (those of us in the math community are keenly interested in what went wrong with the exits for one).

However, there are SERIOUS questions to be asked about the voting equipment. The Diebold machines are known to be insecure. They lack any kind of paper trail (no possibility of a independent audit of the election). And they lack any kind of oversight on the code itself..

Computer scientists have been raising the red flag on these machines for several years now. You have to admit when you have a large GOP contributor promise to deliver the electoral votes for Bush in '04.. who happens to own the company that is supplying the bulk of these new voting machines (with all of the oversight problems).. you really have something worth looking into.

Once again, I'm not saying the election was rigged. I'm just saying that in an election this close not having a basic paper trail or fundamentally secure machines should be alarming to every American. It doesn't matter if your guy won or lost, if you live in a county using these machines you should be up in arms about them. Electronic voting is not a bad thing... but this implementation makes it far easier to literally steal an election with no one being able to prove otherwise. No matter what side of the fence your on.. it's bad for democracy.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/04/11/con04482.html

November 3, 2004

Election 2004: "Sour Grapes" or Voter Fraud

A BUZZFLASH READER CONTRIBUTION
by Mike Whitney


The fact of the matter is (as every reasonable person who hasn't been hoodwinked by the pageantry of election night fraud realizes) that the election was stolen again in full view of the American public. The Republican owned voting machines prevailed over exit poll projections and the will of the American people.

If that's not the case, then let's investigate the computer logs. According to Lynn Landis' article "Could the AP rig the Election": "The Associated Press (AP) will be the sole source of raw vote totals for the major news broadcasters on Election Night.. They refused to confirm or deny that the AP will receive direct feed from voting machines and central vote tabulating computers across the country. But, circumstantial evidence suggests that is exactly what will happen.

And what can be downloaded can also be uploaded. Computer experts say that signals can travel both to and from computerized voting machines through wireless technology, modems, and even simple electricity." Landis just confirms what is already known about "sketchy" electronic voting and how it invites vote tampering. Her connection between election machinery, vote totals and the AP, however, has not previously been made. She goes on to explain that, "AP spokespeople would not give out information on who sits on their board, however AP leadership appears quite conservative."

Landis continues: "Burl Osborne, chairman of the AP board of directors, is also publisher emeritus of the conservative The Dallas Morning News, a newspaper that endorsed George W. Bush in the last election. Kathleen Carroll, senior vice president and executive editor of AP, was a reporter at The Dallas Morning News before joining AP. Carroll is also on the Associated Press Managing Editors (APME)'s 7-member executive committee. The APME "works in partnership with AP to improve the wire service's performance," according to their website. APME vice president, Deanna Sands, is managing editor of the ultra conservative Omaha World Herald newspaper, whose parent company owns the largest voting machine company in the nation, Election Systems and Software (ES&S)."

None of the facts related to the presidential election add up. Voter registration went up from 105 million to 120 million. In Ohio alone it went up a whopping 17%. Whenever registration has surged like this in the past, it has always favored the challenger and precipitated a change in government.

Not so, this time, and Republican pollsters are eager to convince us that the reason for this is a renewed interest among the American public for "moral values". Is that it or are the results simply an indication of massive (but well calculated) voter fraud?

The exit polling was equally skewed, showing a clear victory for Kerry. Exit polling has traditionally been a reliable way of determining the outcome of elections. Not so in Bush-world, where vote totals are invariably higher for Bush in the contentious areas that ultimately decide the election.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Greg Palast called it exactly the way it happened, two days before the election:

http://gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=389&row=0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's a good one from Cuyahoga:

048874 11/02/04, 5:34 PM PST Machine problem Brooklyn, OH, Brooklyn, Cuyahoga County, Ohio Long time voter called to say that one of 10 machines at his precinct was recording faulty votes all day. He voted at 7:30pm, so the problem affected voters all day. Holes were not properly lined up with names and pages were out of order. (Half the names had no corresponding holes.) When caller brought this to the attention of the presiding judge, the caller was "shushed" by the presiding judge and not allowed to discuss the problem with any of the other voters. Caller said that he has never seen the volume he saw today at his polling place. Normally he waits 10-15 min; today he had to come back because he couldn't wait the necessary 25 minutes.

https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapCounty&state=Ohio&county=Cuyahoga&cat=02&tab=ED04

If you look at the complaint log, the same complaint was made all day; also broken machines kept in service.

http://homepage.mac.com/rcareaga/diebold/little_die/diebold_1a.jpg

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

http://homepage.mac.com/rcareaga/diebold/little_die/diebold_3a.jpg

[easymobee]

.


3.5 million more votes than Kerry....that's MILLION

Something tells me that this wasn't that important to you when Gore won the last popular vote.