SoCalBronco
10-30-2004, 09:15 PM
i cant wait. I always love turning on the tube on election night and looking at the numbers rolling in from the first precincts sitting in my chair with the little legal pad adding up electoral numbers up and down based on the information that keeps coming out.
There will be several key points on tuesday night.
First, New Jersey and New Hampshire. Kerry has a better than 50-50 shot of taking down one of Bush's small state wins last time in New Hampshire. If he can pull this out, it will insulate him from the likely loss of New Mexico later in the evening. New Jersey on the other hand represents a possible (but highly unlikely) upset possibility for the Republicans. Alot of polls have it in a rough dead heat although today's polls have Kerry ahead by a few points outside of the margin of error so i do not expect the President to come close to pulling this one out. If Bush can win one of these two states, it will be gravy, although i expect Kerry to hold on by a slim 2 points in NH, while he will cruise to a 7 point win in New Jersey. A Bush win in New Jersey would probably spell doom for Kerry for the evening.
Second, Pennsylvania. Bush did not quite get the suburban support last time to offset massively impressive numbers from Al Gore in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh resulting in a 51-47 finish in 2000. Lately Polls have had this state generally going with Kerry BUT in almost every poll it has been within the margin of error. My gut also tells me Kerry is ahead here by about 3 right now. Certainly Bush can win it, but the Republican GOTV machine has to look more like it did in 2002 rather than 2000. I think President Bush will do a little bit better in the suburbs this time but again not quite enough to overcome Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. I think Kerry will win Pennsylvania by three points. If Bush, however, is to pull this state out, it will be very difficult for Kerry to win this election.
Then, we come to the twin main events of the evening. At this point, i expect Kerry to have won NH, NJ and Penn. But still it is in Ohio and Florida where Bush can withstand these losses and win the ballgame. If President Bush holds on in both states, it is almost certain he will win the election. I tend to believe he is slightly more vulnerable in Ohio than Florida. I am feeling good about Florida but if the Fla. Dem. Party can muster a 90-100 K vote advantage in Broward and Dade Counties, Bush might not have the numbers elsewhere to counter. Nonetheless, i am feeling fairly good because today's Mason Dixon poll has him ahead by 4, and two polls yesterday also had him out ahead. I am also buoyed by the assertion by a supposed source in the National Journal that Bush has roughly a 100,000 vote edge on Kerry in absentee ballots in Florida, a margin ahead of what he had on Gore last time. We will see though, it would not surprise me in the LEAST if Kerry won Florida. Both parties have really invested alot of time and money in anticipation of the last second ground game. In Ohio, it will also be very close. Its really 50-50 and its all turnout. If Kerry wins both these states (and won NH, NJ and Penn) the election will be all but over barring a miracle. That miracle would be defined as follows. I figure he starts out at 278 (2000's states won with a 7 point bonus for reapportionment). You take NH away i believe that is 5. You take Fla. and Ohio away thats a combined 46 if im not mistaken. The President is then sitting at around 228. He would have to get a mild upset in Minnesota, a real upset (although polls are close) in Michigan and win close contests in Wisconsin and Iowa thats around 37 votes. That puts him around 265 and it is expected he will pick off New Mexico and its 5 votes from the Dem camp that would put him at 270. A tall order to say the least.
There will be several key points on tuesday night.
First, New Jersey and New Hampshire. Kerry has a better than 50-50 shot of taking down one of Bush's small state wins last time in New Hampshire. If he can pull this out, it will insulate him from the likely loss of New Mexico later in the evening. New Jersey on the other hand represents a possible (but highly unlikely) upset possibility for the Republicans. Alot of polls have it in a rough dead heat although today's polls have Kerry ahead by a few points outside of the margin of error so i do not expect the President to come close to pulling this one out. If Bush can win one of these two states, it will be gravy, although i expect Kerry to hold on by a slim 2 points in NH, while he will cruise to a 7 point win in New Jersey. A Bush win in New Jersey would probably spell doom for Kerry for the evening.
Second, Pennsylvania. Bush did not quite get the suburban support last time to offset massively impressive numbers from Al Gore in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh resulting in a 51-47 finish in 2000. Lately Polls have had this state generally going with Kerry BUT in almost every poll it has been within the margin of error. My gut also tells me Kerry is ahead here by about 3 right now. Certainly Bush can win it, but the Republican GOTV machine has to look more like it did in 2002 rather than 2000. I think President Bush will do a little bit better in the suburbs this time but again not quite enough to overcome Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. I think Kerry will win Pennsylvania by three points. If Bush, however, is to pull this state out, it will be very difficult for Kerry to win this election.
Then, we come to the twin main events of the evening. At this point, i expect Kerry to have won NH, NJ and Penn. But still it is in Ohio and Florida where Bush can withstand these losses and win the ballgame. If President Bush holds on in both states, it is almost certain he will win the election. I tend to believe he is slightly more vulnerable in Ohio than Florida. I am feeling good about Florida but if the Fla. Dem. Party can muster a 90-100 K vote advantage in Broward and Dade Counties, Bush might not have the numbers elsewhere to counter. Nonetheless, i am feeling fairly good because today's Mason Dixon poll has him ahead by 4, and two polls yesterday also had him out ahead. I am also buoyed by the assertion by a supposed source in the National Journal that Bush has roughly a 100,000 vote edge on Kerry in absentee ballots in Florida, a margin ahead of what he had on Gore last time. We will see though, it would not surprise me in the LEAST if Kerry won Florida. Both parties have really invested alot of time and money in anticipation of the last second ground game. In Ohio, it will also be very close. Its really 50-50 and its all turnout. If Kerry wins both these states (and won NH, NJ and Penn) the election will be all but over barring a miracle. That miracle would be defined as follows. I figure he starts out at 278 (2000's states won with a 7 point bonus for reapportionment). You take NH away i believe that is 5. You take Fla. and Ohio away thats a combined 46 if im not mistaken. The President is then sitting at around 228. He would have to get a mild upset in Minnesota, a real upset (although polls are close) in Michigan and win close contests in Wisconsin and Iowa thats around 37 votes. That puts him around 265 and it is expected he will pick off New Mexico and its 5 votes from the Dem camp that would put him at 270. A tall order to say the least.