Bush Gets Big Bounce From Convention.

[Kaylore]

Unlike Kerry, who's bounce constituted something within the margin of error, inital polls are showing President Bush Pull out a big lead. (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm)
:strong:

This is a great site for any kind of polling. It's bi-partisan and covers a wide array of issues.

[watermock]

I'll wait for the full bounce to happen.

[Hogan11]

I don't take these polls seriously until the final two weeks.....there's just too much time left.

[SteveTensi13]

What was kerry's response to the Republicans attack on his record? "Why are they questioning my patriotism? I fought in Vietnam!" How weak is that? God I'm glad I'm not a demoncat. Everytime someone brings up his senate record or his flip-flop on issues he jumps back to the old standby "I was in Vietnam, don't question my patriotism." And this is the guy the demoncats are pinnning their hopes on? How far can the demoncats sink before they jump ship?

[Kaylore]

I don't take these polls seriously until the final two weeks.....there's just too much time left.

While you're absolutely correct that the only poll that matters is on election day, watching these polls in the last two months can give you an idea of which campaign is effectual in its exection.

Following polling data can be like following football stats in the game. Just like in football, the person with the most yards rushing and passing, doesn't always win, but usually will, so in politics does the person with higher polls usually win, though not always.

Let's look at some facts on this poll.

1. This polling data was completed in the middle of the RNC.

2. Going into the convention, most of the people were decided, so the bounce shows something happened to change peoples' minds.

3. This polling data was completed after Senator Miller's address.

4. Bush's final speech, which was not heard by those polled, was regarded by most observers, including a former Democrat National Strategist as a solid presentation establishing an agenda (though he obviously disagreed with the content.)

5. Senator Kerry failed to garner a significant bounce after the DNC.

What I see from this poll is the RNC making strides in the populace and Senator Miller's comments actually helping Bush. It appears that Kerry's incesant Vietnam campaign is failing to show relevance among voters. The poll results on monday will be more telling, because they will be done after the Convention and the people will have had a day to hear Kerry's responses and digest everything.

[Cito Pelon]

What was kerry's response to the Republicans attack on his record? "Why are they questioning my patriotism? I fought in Vietnam!" How weak is that? God I'm glad I'm not a demoncat. Everytime someone brings up his senate record or his flip-flop on issues he jumps back to the old standby "I was in Vietnam, don't question my patriotism." And this is the guy the demoncats are pinnning their hopes on? How far can the demoncats sink before they jump ship?

Did GWB or Dick Cheney fight in Vietnam? Kerry stood up as a man and volunteered when very few did - witness GWB and Cheney. It's disgusting when those who didn't stand up as men belittle those who did. How can you admire belittling those who went into combat?

In the long run, you'll be exposed. You'll probably never know that you're the problem - you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

I don't take these polls seriously until the final two weeks.....there's just too much time left.

The last couple of weeks we've seen the corporate media give way too much legitimacy to the swift liars while giving them free advertising time by making sure everyone saw the bogus ads. Of course, the polls rushed out to say that Kerry was slipping and the Monkey was pulling ahead. Then the RNC invaded NYC with their psuedo-republicans and the raving zig-zag-zell.

Zogby:

“While the President has improved his numbers, he still has a negative re-elect, job performance, and wrong direction."

“So the battle is now engaged. I have written before about the metaphor of the bouncing rubber ball. Take a rubber ball and bounce it as hard as you can. Then the laws of physics take over. The President has gotten three preceding bounces – each one shorter in height and duration. I think this week is the fourth bounce of the ball: this time only into the higher forties and perhaps only lasting a week or so."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857

Editor Iowa City paper confirmed Time/CNN poll no good

Tom Ashbrook on On Point is interviewing editors from Iowa, New Mexico, and the National Journal on the radio, and talking about impact of GOP convention in swing states.

The Iowa guy was confronted with today's Time/CNN poll, showing a sudden 11 point lead, and he pooh-poohed it, citing Rasmussen and Gallup. He said the polling firm they used is completely inexperienced in national elections. It's the first time Time has used them, and he thought the magazine was putting its credibility on the line.

If someone makes a 'mistake' that benefits them, expect them to make that 'mistake' again and again.

"He said the polling firm they used is completely inexperienced in national elections. It's the first time Time has used them, and he thought the magazine was putting its credibility on the line."

I wonder how many Whore Points these mouthpieces will gain for publishing a Bush-fellating poll that can be cited endlessly on Faux and Rabies Radio for the next few months as proof of how popular the Chimp really is, so we may as well stay home and let Diebold vote for us.

[broncogary]

Did GWB or Dick Cheney fight in Vietnam? Kerry stood up as a man and volunteered when very few did - witness GWB and Cheney. It's disgusting when those who didn't stand up as men belittle those who did. How can you admire belittling those who went into combat?

In the long run, you'll be exposed. You'll probably never know that you're the problem - you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

So was Kerry the only Dem who served in Vietnam? That can't be the only reason they picked him.

[watermock]

Yeah, Gallup is totally inexperienced in polling.

Fox news has been much more accurate if you consider USAToday/Manatee than the Zog Squad. WTF are you trying to say here exactly? Your hatred spews, go wipe yourself.

They were talking about Time, not Gallup.

I am laughing my ass off your dishing CNN for their polling yet think Zogby is accurate.
Now ZogPoll is denouncing it's own Poll, considering it a bouncing rubber ball?


Zogby:

“While the President has improved his numbers, he still has a negative re-elect, job performance, and wrong direction."

“So the battle is now engaged. I have written before about the metaphor of the bouncing rubber ball. Take a rubber ball and bounce it as hard as you can. Then the laws of physics take over. The President has gotten three preceding bounces – each one shorter in height and duration. I think this week is the fourth bounce of the ball: this time only into the higher forties and perhaps only lasting a week or so."

This sounds like an honest evaluation. Sounds to me like the bouncing ball keeps getting higher.

Even this clown Zog had to admit his own poll showed Bush ahead. It's so amusing. This isn't Newton's physics Zog. Maybe if you screened better.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857

[rosco]

Bush having the lead on a poll will help Kerry for the simple reason that it will prevent what happened in 2000 to happen again. What i mean by that is dems won't stay home rather than vote because they think we have shoe in for president.

[TexanBob]

you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

Well, here's another candidate for my ignore list. Zyklon B or whatever his name is used the same argument and I find it contemptable. Who the hell do you think you are comparing one side of the political aisle to people who just murdered 200 children in Russia? Buh-bye.

[TheDave]

These days I'm definately not a fan of the republican message, but damn can those boys throw a convention. I'm not suprised at the bounce they got from it. What will be interesting is what happens when the debate turns to domestic issues...

[Kaylore]

Days later: And the bounce (http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm) goes on.

[Paladin]

I don't think it matters much one way or the other what direction whoever "bounces." The foremost question relates more to the length of the coattails. I have heard, but I cannot produce evidence to support it, that there are a number of Senate races that could provide a net gain for the left side of the aisle. Even if the House votes result in only a slight change, it would be an interesting change.

In effect, if a couple of the Senate races go to the Dems, it would ensure that Bush would be a "Lame Duck" the day he takes the oath. With little or no standing among the traditional allies, and with a dwindling popularity at home, Iraq will still bite Bush badly. Moreover, the National Debt, now approaching $8 Trillion means that the "Bush Legacy" might be best represented by the coffin he used at Yale.

If Kerry wins and the Senate changes, there may well be some possibilities for an "honorable" exit from Iraq. He would only have to pay off France and Germany (that's a joke there, Kemo Sabe). However, the "Ads" have hurt him badly. That is truely sad, but that is negative and devisive politics, American style.

If I were the DNC, I would be very much interested in getting the Senate and the House races more publicity in the National media. Even Faux News could use a new angle; they are getting stale.

I just think all the energy going into the "publiciy wars" and the constant "re-analyses" of who got what bounce from which ad is terribly unproductive, and irrelevant to the larger picture.

[Kaylore]

I just think all the energy going into the "publiciy wars" and the constant "re-analyses" of who got what bounce from which ad is terribly unproductive, and irrelevant to the larger picture.

I already posted on why the bounce has relevance, though its no surprise that you are dismissing that data because it is unfavorable vis-a-vis your canditates standing.

And historically (I do have data on this) the President elect's party consistantly gains seats in congress the year he is elected. So they are more related than many of you would like to pretend.

[Rohirrim]

Welcome, Paladin (hopefully you're a Bronco fan). An independent's view is always welcome here.

[patteeu]

What was kerry's response to the Republicans attack on his record? "Why are they questioning my patriotism? I fought in Vietnam!" How weak is that? God I'm glad I'm not a demoncat. Everytime someone brings up his senate record or his flip-flop on issues he jumps back to the old standby "I was in Vietnam, don't question my patriotism." And this is the guy the demoncats are pinnning their hopes on? How far can the demoncats sink before they jump ship?

Did GWB or Dick Cheney fight in Vietnam? Kerry stood up as a man and volunteered when very few did - witness GWB and Cheney. It's disgusting when those who didn't stand up as men belittle those who did. How can you admire belittling those who went into combat?

In the long run, you'll be exposed. You'll probably never know that you're the problem - you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

Translation: "Kerry was in Vietnam, don't question his patriotism." ROFL!

[patteeu]

Welcome, Paladin (hopefully you're a Bronco fan). An independent's view is always welcome here.

ROFL! I saw this post when I started downloading this page and I was anxious to see how "independent" this Paladin really was. I can see now why you are welcoming him, but as expected, I don't see anything indicating independence.

I guess that since he doesn't appear to be a fringe looney like LABF, Cito and some of the rest of your crew he seems independent, relatively speaking.

P.S. to Cito - See what whacko language like that quoted below gets you? It gets you equal billing with LABF. That can't be a good feeling.

you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

[errand]

. What will be interesting is what happens when the debate turns to domestic issues...

....and John Kerry will win the debates because he's been so good at letting us know what his plan is and how he's going to accomplish it right?

I think the only word he knows is "Vietnam"

He talks of Vietnam so much, I'm almost positive his answers will somehow be the same 'ol thing again and again.

Moderator - "Senator Kerry, the president's plan includes massive tax cuts that will put more money into the hands of our citizens who buy goods and services and businesses that hire people and create more jobs.....what's your plan to ensure economic recovery?"

Kerry - "Well, when I was in Vietnam, I won 3 Purple Hearts, and other medals....."

[TheDave]

....and John Kerry will win the debates because he's been so good at letting us know what his plan is and how he's going to accomplish it right?

I think the only word he knows is "Vietnam"

He talks of Vietnam so much, I'm almost positive his answers will somehow be the same 'ol thing again and again.

Moderator - "Senator Kerry, the president's plan includes massive tax cuts that will put more money into the hands of our citizens who buy goods and services and businesses that hire people and create more jobs.....what's your plan to ensure economic recovery?"

Kerry - "Well, when I was in Vietnam, I won 3 Purple Hearts, and other medals....."


Damn it's been a few weeks since i've been here... Forgot what an idiot you are errand... Thanks for reminding me. :thumbsup:

[watermock]

Did GWB or Dick Cheney fight in Vietnam? Kerry stood up as a man and volunteered when very few did - witness GWB and Cheney. It's disgusting when those who didn't stand up as men belittle those who did. How can you admire belittling those who went into combat?

Guess what Cito, we are going to make sure people like you are tagged like animals. Do you think we were telling the truth? Does it matter? Our military/industrial/illuminati conquest has allready assumed control. You people will be implanted soon to make sure you don't cause trouble anymore. You will be tracked for national security thru the Homeland Security Act. If you move against the United States, you will be under the jurisdiction of the Federal Government.

In the long run, you'll be exposed. You'll probably never know that you're the problem - you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

We are allready exposed. What the hell do you think your going to do about it cry baby? Put your hair net on or leave. Do you honestly think you were seeing reality?

The yoke is on you, either pick it up or starve. I dare you to checke out the secret runway at DIA or the containment fields. They will be called detention facilities.

[errand]

Did GWB or Dick Cheney fight in Vietnam? Kerry stood up as a man and volunteered when very few did - witness GWB and Cheney. It's disgusting when those who didn't stand up as men belittle those who did. How can you admire belittling those who went into combat?

They also don't have their picture in the Communist museum applauding their efforts to help the North Vietnamese win the war either...so add another feather in John Kerry's cap.

Really? And I suppose those who served weren't belittled when Kerry came back from Vietnam and accused the entire US Military of committing atrocities?

He accused them in front of the US Senate and on television....it was broadcasted over loudspeakers in the Hanoi Hilton, and soon afterwards those POW's were tortured by their enemies in order to get confessions for the crimes John Forbes Kerry had accused them of.

So let me ask you Mr. Pelon, if having served means so much to you....

.....did you vote for the former decorated war hero of WWII George Bush in '92....or the self-admitted pot smoking womanizing draft dodger Bill Clinton?


Did you vote for Bob Dole in '96 or the same draft dodger Bill Clinton?

In the long run, you'll be exposed. You'll probably never know that you're the problem - you're the American equivalent of Al-Qaida and Hamas. And you're too indoctrinated and subservient to realize it.

So now all conservatives and Republicans are terrorists? Please elaborate how we're the equivalent......

[watermock]

Cito, your either with us or against us. It's up to you. Nothing personal, it's just business. We might need to change your name tho.

[errand]

Damn it's been a few weeks since i've been here... Forgot what an idiot you are errand... Thanks for reminding me. :thumbsup:

...and that must mean that you should have no problem poiting out how Kerry will win the debates you can't wait for despite your own party base not having any clue as to HOW he's going to do anything.

I'll await your outline of John Kerry's plan (agenda) for America...oh, and please put it in words even an idiot like me could understand, Ok?

[TheDave]

...and that must mean that you should have no problem poiting out how Kerry will win the debates you can't wait for despite your own party base not having any clue as to HOW he's going to do anything.

I'll await your outline of John Kerry's plan (agenda) for America...oh, and please put it in words even an idiot like me could understand, Ok?


A. Not my party, though right now i will vote for ANY candidate that has a chance of replacing the current crop.

B. Never said i couldn't wait for the debates... i simply said that when the debate changes from "Be afraid of Terrorism" to what are we doing domestically i see his bounce comming back down.

C. http://www.johnkerry.com/index.html though it's not written phonetically i'm sure if you whip out your "Hooked on Phonics" program you can get through it.

Now in all seriousness go reread my post and let me know what got you all riled up... if it's just stupidity run amuck then fair enough.

[errand]

A. Not my party, though right now i will vote for ANY candidate that has a chance of replacing the current crop.

B. Never said i couldn't wait for the debates... i simply said that when the debate changes from "Be afraid of Terrorism" to what are we doing domestically i see his bounce comming back down.

C. http://www.johnkerry.com/index.html though it's not written phonetically i'm sure if you whip out your "Hooked on Phonics" program you can get through it.

Now in all seriousness go reread my post and let me know what got you all riled up... if it's just stupidity run amuck then fair enough.

You really think Kerry has a chance of replacing Bush?

Voting for "any" canidate is rather than one who follows your core values is pretty ignorant wouldn't you say? You might be able to tell us why you wouldn't vote for Bush.....but you like every other non-Bush supporter cannot give us any reason whatsoever that you'd vote for this "anyone but" guy.

How can you really believe that Bush wouldn't increase his lead even more after the debates when nobody other than the few who check out his website even know what John Kerry's plan for America is? He's never said anything about it in any speech other than to say "he'd do it better..." or ...."do it smarter".

No specifics whatsoever are given by him in any speeches, in fact he's been quoted as saying that he'll unvail his plan for America only upon his being elected. Now you seem reasonable enough to vote for a canidate your well-informed about. If you don't then may God help us all.

BTW, you called me an idiot and then wonder aloud what got me riled up?

[watermock]

Even a starving dog will bite back.

I don't think Kerry has it in him, and that is the reason the convention was unusually mean spirited.

I think this wimp is way way over his head. The Republicans called him out.

He has never been a Governor, or even Senior Senator.

Hell, Hillary has more pull than him. It's pathetic.

[W*GS]

Hell, Hillary has more pull than him. It's pathetic.

Yeah, we hear more from Kerry about his 4 months in Vietnam than his many years in the US Senate. Why is that?

Can anyone name a single major piece of legislation that Kerry authored in all that time? Or was he merely fat slob Teddy Kennedy's bee-atch?

[watermock]

Here is your classic Kerry speech:

(in total monotone)

I THINK, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEED THE KIND OF LEADERSHIP THAT THEY DESERVE, THE KIND OF LEADERSHIP THAT THEY HAVE BEEN ASKING FOR FOR THE PAST 4 YEARS.

WHERE ARE THE JOBS FOR THE POOR MILKLESS MOTHERS ROAMING THE STREETS, FIGHTING KITTY CATS FOR THAT LAST OUNCE OF MILK?

5.4 UNEMPLOYMENT? THIS IS AN ILLUSION BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE CAN MARRY A BILLIONAIRE INSANE TROPHY WIFE. I PROPOSE THAT ALL AMERICANS SHALL BE ENTITLED TO BILLIONAIRE TROPHY WIVES.

WE WILL NOT BE STOPPED BY MILLIONAIRE TRIAL LAWYERS, WE SHALL ADOPT THEM FOR OUR CAUSE AND BUFF THEIR HAIR AND CLAIM THE FEMALE VOTER. JOHN EDWARDS WILL STOP OVER ABUSIVE TRIAL LITIGATION ONCE HE IS THRU NEXT CASE.

AND I SAY TO YOU MR. PRESIDENT, HOW CAN YOU LET THIS GO ON? WE HAVE 3 PERCENT INFLATION, IT'S OUTRAGEOUS, WE HAVE INTEREST RATES THE LOWEST IN 4 DECADES, WE HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF HOME OWNERSHIP IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES.

I ASK YOU MR. PRESIDENT, HOW DID YOU ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN?

IF I WERE PRESIDENT, I WOULD DISCUSS THESE IMPORTANT ISSUES WITH OUR ALLIES IN FRANCE, GERMANY AND RUSSIA, WHO HAVE PROMISED TO PROVIDE COOPERATION FOR OUR ECONOMIC RECOVERY. I HAVE ALLREADY MADE PRELIMINARY CONTACT THRU OUT GOOD EMISSARY JESSE JACKSON.

IN ADDITION, WE ARE IN CONTACT WITH OUR MUSLIM FRIENDS TO TAKE THIS CONFLICT TO A PEACEFULL END. REMEMBER THE OSLO ACCORDS? REMEMBER THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT? THESE ARE THE MEASURES THAT A PRESIDENT MUST BEAR FOR OUR COUNTRY.

NOW HERE IS MY LOVELY WIFE QUIQUITA....

"Yeah, I think that when I was a little girl in portugul noone would want me...but then this kind man name Mr. Heinz invited me up to my room for more money than I had ever seee.....

THANK YOU VERY MUCH TERESA, AND WE APPRECIATE OUR...ERR....YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO MOVEON.ORG.

[watermock]

Yeah, we hear more from Kerry about his 4 months in Vietnam than his many years in the US Senate. Why is that?

Can anyone name a single major piece of legislation that Kerry authored in all that time? Or was he merely fat slob Teddy Kennedy's bee-atch?

It's because he was Ted Kennedy's Junior Biatc......er....senator for 3 decades.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

These days I'm definately not a fan of the republican message, but damn can those boys throw a convention. I'm not suprised at the bounce they got from it. What will be interesting is what happens when the debate turns to domestic issues...

Lots of reasons to question the "bounce" the chimp is getting.

First, the polling on the RNC was done during the convention whereas the polling on the DNC was done 5-7 days after the convention.

More:

Time switched to an organization that has never done National polling before. Why, at this crucial juncture?

But now, at the dailykos, we learn more, namely, that this polling was done DURING the convention, while their polling for the Democratic Convention was done 5-7 days after.

"Please Note that this polling company did something unheard of during a convention they pushed the the undecided likely voters to make a choice. Also again I want to point out that this poll was done during the RNC while the Time poll for the DNC was done 5-7 days later, not at the height of the convention.

Why is this bad? Because this far out you don't push leaners. Because you don't push undecideds during a convention. The reason is obvious from they are caught in the moment to they have no contradictory information yet and they are involved and not distracted.

Note the dates of 8/24-26 in which Kerry and Bush are tied 46-46 just prior to the Republican convention. In the LV section this date has an asterisk next to it.The asterisk says that in that poll they didn't push the leaners. BUT in the convention poll they did push the leaners. This act alone, just changing from not pushing the leaners to pushing the leaners surely accounts for much of the seemingly large difference. This change in methodology raises questions. And why are they not aware of the methodological problems and why don't they tell us.

This indicates even more so that this poll should be or played down.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/4/35010/97521

Another analysis:

The best part is if you read the details of the poll, it was done even before the convention speeches were given, Aug 31 - Sep 2. So in reality, there is no possiblity this is measuring some bounce as the speeches hadn't even been given yet and the convention hadn't even occurred.

So tell me, why would a poll taken these days, even if run by legitimate means, have skewed results in favor of Bush? Right, because Republicans and Bush-liking moderates and independents and the few Democrats open to hearing Bush were the ones sitting home watching the convention, and so near the phone ready and willing to answer political polls, while the Democrats and moderates/independents and Republicans who don't like Bush were off doing anything else.

http://www.moderateindependent.com

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Re: Newsweek Poll

The poll had a sample size of 1008, where 374 were Republicans, 303 Democrats, and 300 Independents.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/09-04-2004/0002244238&EDATE=

As with Time Warner, NBC--a GE owned company--is ALSO pro-republican and makes no secret of it.

I wonder what the chimp administration threatened or promised them to pull this crap off?

SEE:

MSNBC poll offered two "choices," both assuming support for Bush-Cheney

On August 31, the morning after former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani addressed the Republican National Convention, MSNBC.com's "Question of the Day" offered only two possible answers -- both assuming that participants support the Bush-Cheney '04 ticket.

The poll question asked: "Did Rudy Giuliani's speech reassure you or move you to support the Bush-Cheney ticket?" The two response choices were: (1) "Reassure"; and (2) "Move you to support."

http://mediamatters.org/items/200408310015

Interesting how when Kerry led in the polls the media said NOTHING! Now that they fabricate a Bush lead it's 24/7.

[watermock]

I allready explained it to you LABF.

We are criminals. It doesn't matter what you think whatsoever. We are going to push our NAZI boot onto the back of your neck so hard you will beg to eat pig crap.

What are you going to do about it? Squeel like a pig?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

P.S. to Cito - See what whacko language like that quoted below gets you? It gets you equal billing with LABF. That can't be a good feeling.

To right-wing fringe nutrolls like Pattycake, anyone to the left of J. Edgar Hoover is a "whacko."

[watermock]

Cito too? I really was hoping not. You reactionaries need to get some encrypted cell phones.

I allready offered Cito a plea bargain. That's a shame.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Re: Time Poll

The new outfit they used for this latest poll seems to be a niche market researcher, doing deep analytic focus group stuff for major corporate clients, with a side business in doing the same for local and state elections. And it IS a side business, if you go through the site.

Nothing wrong with that. However, what they specialize in is finding key insights into complex issues for corporations. In other words, qualitative, not quantitative, research. It's a very different animal than public opinion polling.

I am astounded that, given two almost identical events, only one month apart, they chose to use different methodologies.

But, they pointed out, the probing questions are not projectable. You are asking someone to make a sophisticated response in a few seconds on an issue they may not have thought about at all, while they are trying to cook dinner or watch the thrilling conclusion to an episode of Survivor. Therefore, the probe questions are subsets and just for the purpose of developing POSSIBLE insights. Again, from a journalist's point of view, this is a good thing, because you don't want to just give a reader WHAT they said, but WHY they said it.

The probing is, however, always a subset of the projectable whole. In this one, for instance, they only probed undecideds, who were a tiny fraction of a poll. Their responses are strictly anecdotal. This is exactly like the poll a while back that claimed that veteran support for Kerry had dropped, when in fact the question was only asked of a small number of people within a much larger poll, and therefore was almost entirely worthless. When we did stuff like this, we always said that this was an interesting aside, and nothing more.

Why? Because the poll as a whole is carefully designed to ask a given number of people in representative area codes a set of questions. As soon as you ask a subset, you throw all of that out the window. If they had asked 1,200 UNDECIDEDS in the appropriate area codes who they would vote for if they HAD to vote, it would be of interest. Asking a hundred or so, who for all we know were all in one area code, the same question is mathematically worthless.

Again, using two different methodologies for two nearly identical events a month apart is inconceivable. I cannot understand how anyone would decide to do such a thing. I doubt these guys are right-wing shills. My personal opinion is TIME looked at the Dem results and said, what if we did this and did this and did this? And the pollsters, knowing they could charge more for the answers, said, sure, we can do that. In the process of looking for insight, though, they completely buried any apple-to-apple comparisons.


Let's remember here that this is Time Warner(AOL) we're talking about!

They are unabashedly pro-republican and have been known to block anti-bush stuff on AOL, etc.

[Paladin]

I already posted on why the bounce has relevance, though its no surprise that you are dismissing that data because it is unfavorable vis-a-vis your canditates standing.

And historically (I do have data on this) the President elect's party consistantly gains seats in congress the year he is elected. So they are more related than many of you would like to pretend.

Thanks for the welcome. First, do not assume that I am committed in any way to any candidate at this time. As I re-read my post, I can understand why you would assume that I am supporting Kerry. Actually, I am leaning towards Kerry for a couple of serious reasons: the war and the Economy. Aside from that, I understand the desire of the conservatives to play the "history" card, and hope that they will get the majority of Senate races and whatever they can gain in the House. But, my sense is that these are such devisive times, that the heat and rhetoric are rather more intense than usual, and "old history" may be less than great as a predictor of much of anything. Polls are nice, but they do not cast votes. Perhaps suggestive, but not the final "say"' as it were.

So, while you can analyze the whole thing to death, the hole card may well be the war and casulaties in Iraq and how Bush answers up to those question in the debates (and I submit he will have to be more specific with his "vision thing"). Alternatively, Kerry will have to reveal his own agenda on the economic topics as well as the Iraq topic. To say that Bush has this election "wrapped up" as you are implying, is a bit more of a reach than the questions about the Senate races. Conversely, Kerry is not "in", but he isn't out yet, either. I support the ideas that the debates can be quite decisive here. Despite the postulated "bounce", it really isn't over, yet, is it? Although I would think you'd like it to be on behalf of your obviously favorite candidate.

In any case, we shall see what we shall see.

[Cito Pelon]

I'll bet my bottom dollar GWB will not agree to a debate unless the questions are given to him in advance.

I'm sorry, but GWB is a bag of wind that about 30% of the electorate are banking on, and another 15% are hoping he's not just a bag of wind, and 15% are pretty sure he's just a bag of wind, and 35% are sure he's a bag of wind, and 5% are for Nader.

Unfortunately, 80% of the rest of the world are worried he's an unstable megalomaniac in charge of the strongest military in the world, and they're planning accordingly.

GWB thinks he's going to liberate the world, and the rest of the world sees him as a drunken neighbor trying to police the neighborhood because he has the most guns.

I'm looking for leadership, and all I see from GWB is a guy with lots of big talk and lots of guns and dead soldiers to cover his mistakes.

[TomServo]

if kerry opened up a lead like this at this time i would be worried. if i was a dem or bush hater i would be a little worried. yes its early but an eleven point lead in sept. is like an eleven point lead against the superbowl ravens(2000?) in the fourth quarter. yes the lead is small but can the kerry team get any offense going besides "i was in vietnam"?
i cant see a senator from either side getting elected anytime soon. dont think i would want one from either side being president either. damn good ol boys club with campaigns laws they enacted to keep their seats.
just remember not all of us can marry rich women TWICE.

[Blueflame]

if kerry opened up a lead like this at this time i would be worried. if i was a dem or bush hater i would be a little worried. yes its early but an eleven point lead in sept. is like an eleven point lead against the superbowl ravens(2000?) in the fourth quarter. yes the lead is small but can the kerry team get any offense going besides "i was in vietnam"?
i cant see a senator from either side getting elected anytime soon. dont think i would want one from either side being president either. damn good ol boys club with campaigns laws they enacted to keep their seats.
just remember not all of us can marry rich women TWICE.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it just one poll that shows the 11-point gap?

[TomServo]

maybe so, we wont know anything until the polls monday. i believe my ravens analogy is correct however. damn hard to move the polls either way the way its been. as i said if it was a kerry lead, whatever the true # i would be concerned.
also be careful what you wish for cito. just ask al gore about debating that 'dumbass'.

[Kaylore]

LABF is so funny to watch. Anything that shows the Republicans succeeding is a conspiracy. And even if they aren't producing, there is conspiracy. Then he throws in name-calling - because we all know that the more names you call people, the more right you are, and voila: Demagogue rhetoric real vociferous like. :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :TJnPopps: :

[TomServo]

someone else might have mentioned this i dont know. but didnt foxnews actually beat the big three networks this week?

[Kaylore]

someone else might have mentioned this i dont know. but didnt foxnews actually beat the big three networks this week?

Yes they did. They're fake though. Clearly biased. Commence name-calling. ::)

[Cito Pelon]

if kerry opened up a lead like this at this time i would be worried. if i was a dem or bush hater i would be a little worried. yes its early but an eleven point lead in sept. is like an eleven point lead against the superbowl ravens(2000?) in the fourth quarter. yes the lead is small but can the kerry team get any offense going besides "i was in vietnam"?
i cant see a senator from either side getting elected anytime soon. dont think i would want one from either side being president either. damn good ol boys club with campaigns laws they enacted to keep their seats.
just remember not all of us can marry rich women TWICE.

How ya doin, Tom. Yeah, having a Senator as Presidential nominee is not ideal. Never had to actually run a budget. That's an empty space in the resume. If Kerry gets elected, he's going to have to be kept under fiscal control, most certainly. He hasn't run a clever campaign so far, IMO.

He can hammer Bush on Vietnam, there's a lot of feeling for that war still. I don't know if reliving that war is good politically, but the demons released by that war are still floating around. They didn't just disappear. I still like arguing about that war, who bagged and who didn't, who stood up, who didn't. Men who weren't of military age at that time - or didn't have older brothers of military age - don't know how hard it was to volunteer for Vietnam.

I'll say again what I've said before - the boys were that were of draft age in my neighborhood turned in their draft cards because they knew that if they didn't go, somebody would have to go in their place.

GWB snuck around that - somebody had to go to Vietnam in his place - and that's very important as a test of character. Kerry didn't have somebody go to Vietnam in his place, he went himself, voluntarily. And that says a lot about a man. GWB talks a good game, but I wouldn't give two dead flies for him in a street fight. I'd see nothing but the heels of his shoes, and I'd bet on that. Kerry I wouldn't have any doubts about.

[TomServo]

my point exactly cito. someone had to fill bill clintons spot. gw didnt go to war but unlike clinton he at least went to basic. i didnt whine @ clintons nonservice back then against the first bush's service or bob doles service. back then i thought the vietnam war was history and who cares? the kerry campaign should just admit that salute at the convention was a dumb mistake

[Blueflame]

maybe so, we wont know anything until the polls monday. i believe my ravens analogy is correct however. damn hard to move the polls either way the way its been. as i said if it was a kerry lead, whatever the true # i would be concerned.
also be careful what you wish for cito. just ask al gore about debating that 'dumbass'.

Your Ravens analogy might be correct if the poll had not oversampled Republicans, Tom (a fact Newsweek acknowledges). :)

It's my opinion that an unskewed poll would show the two candidates with less than a 5% margin; probably with Bush ahead by 2-3 percentage points (but within the MOE).

[TomServo]

as i said we will see come monday. speaking of Momentum.

[Blueflame]

as i said we will see come monday. speaking of Momentum.

Perhaps. My guess is that even Monday's polls will show that the majority of Republicans will likely vote for Bush and the majority of Democrats will, in all probability, vote for Kerry. Nader's been fairly solid in his 1-2% and around 5% will indicate they're undecided. LOL

[TomServo]

again my point blueflame, even if half that 11 point lead is false, every point at this time is so hard to come by. and kerry is still stuck on vietnam.

[Blueflame]

again my point blueflame, even if half that 11 point lead is false, every point at this time is so hard to come by. and kerry is still stuck on vietnam.

The 11-point margin was a mirage created via a flawed sample group. The general electorate is not going to consist of 38% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 30% Independents...

"The poll had a sample size of 1008, where 374 were Republicans, 303 Democrats, and 300 Independents."


Therefore, the data gleaned from this flawed poll cannot accurately be extrapolated (eg: half of the 11 points being a "real" bounce).

Also, it's not Kerry, but Bush's swiftliars who are "stuck on Vietnam". Kerry has been addressing important issues such as education, health care, and the economy... at least according to an article I read earlier tonight from the Dayton, Ohio newspaper.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

LABF is so funny to watch. Anything that shows the Republicans succeeding is a conspiracy.

But Bubba:

Who mentioned anything about a "conspiracy?"

I merely pointed out some facts which suggest the poll that's giving you wood is unreliable.

I know, I know--having to actually read and comprehend more than a couple sentences is too much to expect from the average bushbot.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

The 11-point margin was a mirage created via a flawed sample group. The general electorate is not going to consist of 38% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 30% Independents...

Bingo.

Thanks for giving Kaylore the condensed version.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Also, it's not Kerry, but Bush's swiftliars who are "stuck on Vietnam". Kerry has been addressing important issues such as education, health care, and the economy... at least according to an article I read earlier tonight from the Dayton, Ohio newspaper.

I have to chuckle at the bush monkeys who repeat ad nauseum that they have no clue where Kerry stands on issues, what his plans are, etc., when all they have to do is go to johnkerry.com for a complete breakdown.

I guess they prefer to let KKKarl Rove spoonfeed them what they want to hear.

[errand]

Also, it's not Kerry, but Bush's swiftliars who are "stuck on Vietnam". Kerry has been addressing important issues such as education, health care, and the economy... at least according to an article I read earlier tonight from the Dayton, Ohio newspaper.

I have to chuckle at the bush monkeys who repeat ad nauseum that they have no clue where Kerry stands on issues, what his plans are, etc., when all they have to do is go to johnkerry.com for a complete breakdown.

I guess they prefer to let KKKarl Rove spoonfeed them what they want to hear.

....so all people who vote now own cpu's? Here's a novel idea...how about the next time he's snapping a salute saying he's reporting for duty he starts by telling those that have TV's what his stand is on the issues instead of telling us to vote for him and then his plan will be revealed. Face it, he HAS NO PLAN......if he did, he'd have surely gotten the word out by now.

This belief that he has no plan is also proven by the fact that none of his supporters on here can tell us what his plan is, not even a Reader's Digest condensed version of it....all they'll do is link his web site and say "it's all there"....

BTW, as for the KKKarl Rove comment....how's Senator Robert Byrd (D-W.Va)doing....have his sheets come back from the Chinese laundry yet? Oh, and let him know his subscription to the Klan newsletter is about to expire.....

[Kaylore]

The 11-point margin was a mirage created via a flawed sample group. The general electorate is not going to consist of 38% Republicans, 30% Democrats, and 30% Independents...

Bingo.

Thanks for giving Kaylore the condensed version.

Um you're aware that more than one poll is yielding this data, right? Just checking in to make sure.

As for the "24-7 Vietnam" you are also aware that Kerry is being crticized by those in his own party for hitting on the issue too much, right? Or are they now part of the conspiracy as well?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Um you're aware that more than one poll is yielding this data, right? Just checking in to make sure.

I mentioned both polls in my posts. You must have missed it.

Rasmussen shows race in dead heat

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[Blueflame]

Um you're aware that more than one poll is yielding this data, right? Just checking in to make sure.

As for the "24-7 Vietnam" you are also aware that Kerry is being crticized by those in his own party for hitting on the issue too much, right? Or are they now part of the conspiracy as well?

Yeah, there are two polls... and both acknowledge oversampling Republicans to come up with those numbers.

Many Democrats criticize Kerry for failure to address the swiftliars in a timely manner. However, when one needs to use FOIA to acquire proof to debunk the allegations, it takes time. And the discreditation did require concrete proof.

So your observation is that the Bush deflection appears to be working... :P

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

So your observation is that the Bush deflection appears to be working...

Don't forget "it's OK to lie when you're a republican trying to get 're'-elected."

[Blueflame]

So your observation is that the Bush deflection appears to be working...

Don't forget "it's OK to lie when you're a republican trying to get 're'-elected."

Isn't that "re-selected"?? Ha!

[errand]

Isn't that "re-selected"?? Ha!

...in EVERY recount performed, even one by CNN....Bush won the state of Florida. The US Supreme court ruled to uphold the state's election laws, thereby making Bush the true winner....just as he was on election night.

[plummerrox]

Kerry - what's your plan for Iraq?

"I was in Vietnam"

What's your plan for Healthcare?

"Don't question my patriotism!"

Why are you going to raise taxes?

"Did I mention that I was in Vietnam?"

[Blueflame]

...in EVERY recount performed, even one by CNN....Bush won the state of Florida. The US Supreme court ruled to uphold the state's election laws, thereby making Bush the true winner....just as he was on election night.


Yeah, Fix news did say that.

[patteeu]

...
Also, it's not Kerry, but Bush's swiftliars who are "stuck on Vietnam". Kerry has been addressing important issues such as education, health care, and the economy... at least according to an article I read earlier tonight from the Dayton, Ohio newspaper.

Someone should tell Bill Clinton. He seems to have forgotten to have the dem talking points forwarded to his hospital room:

In an expansive conversation, Mr. Clinton, who is awaiting heart surgery, told Mr. Kerry that he should move away from talking about Vietnam, which had been the central theme of his candidacy, and focus instead on drawing contrasts with President Bush on job creation and health care policies, officials with knowledge of the conversation said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/06/politics/campaign/06kerry.html?ei=5065&en=86c4535e85915ac4&ex=1095048000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print&position=

[patteeu]

Yeah, there are two polls... and both acknowledge oversampling Republicans to come up with those numbers.

Many Democrats criticize Kerry for failure to address the swiftliars in a timely manner. However, when one needs to use FOIA to acquire proof to debunk the allegations, it takes time. And the discreditation did require concrete proof.

So your observation is that the swiftvets have yet to be discredited eh? :P

[Blueflame]

So your observation is that the swiftvets have yet to be discredited eh? :P

Hardly. Thurlow's own military records provide concrete proof that he's lying.

[patteeu]

Hardly. Thurlow's own military records provide concrete proof that he's lying.

Well then if you are taking the position that one lie (one liar out of over 100 vets) discredits the entire enterprise, then I'm sure you lost all faith in John Kerry when you found out about his serial Cambodia lies. Who are you backing now, Nader?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

When does the author of this thread show up to eat crow?