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Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 08:28 AM
of liberal, democratic Western civilization, anyway. ;D

“Western nations are not going to collapse, but the smooth operation and friendly nature of Western society will disappear, because inequity is going to explode,” Randers argues. “Democratic, liberal society will fail, while stronger governments like China will be the winners.”

Some of these forecasts and early warning signs should sound familiar, precisely because they are already underway. While Homer-Dixon is not surprised at the world’s recent turn of events – he predicted some of them in his 2006 book – he didn’t expect these developments to occur before the mid-2020s.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse

Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 08:30 AM
One lesson to take from this (especially as it applies to Rome) is that the US needs to stop policing the world and close all these foreign outposts which only lead to more and more entanglements and resource sucking "complexity."

ColoradoDarin
08-15-2017, 11:55 AM
I think we're well past the point of "irreconcilable differences" and hopefully the next step is "national divorce" and not "civil war 2.0". It's sad, but I don't think either side wants to work, live, or even like each other anymore. I see the only hope as a return to Federalism, but it's a Hail Mary because it seems like both sides would rather impose their will on the other than compromise.

LoserSlick
08-15-2017, 12:06 PM
One lesson to take from this (especially as it applies to Rome) is that the US needs to stop policing the world and close all these foreign outposts which only lead to more and more entanglements and resource sucking "complexity."

Hilarious! rome's downfall was economic u fkn jackass

lol remember cesar? ...and all the other populares leaders that preceded him?

read a book.

Agamemnon
08-15-2017, 01:23 PM
I think we're well past the point of "irreconcilable differences" and hopefully the next step is "national divorce" and not "civil war 2.0". It's sad, but I don't think either side wants to work, live, or even like each other anymore. I see the only hope as a return to Federalism, but it's a Hail Mary because it seems like both sides would rather impose their will on the other than compromise.

What does "national divorce" even mean? The divide is predominately urban vs small town/rural more than it's coasts vs the heartland. How do you divorce the urban population from the small town/rural population?

BroncoBeavis
08-15-2017, 01:36 PM
I think we're well past the point of "irreconcilable differences" and hopefully the next step is "national divorce" and not "civil war 2.0". It's sad, but I don't think either side wants to work, live, or even like each other anymore. I see the only hope as a return to Federalism, but it's a Hail Mary because it seems like both sides would rather impose their will on the other than compromise.

That's a leadership thing more than anything though. The best hope we have is a truly independent candidate emerging and selling the right federalist prescription.

Many of America's best moments weren't because of some magical characteristic of the American people. Much credit goes to simply selecting the right leaders at the right time.

Unfortunately, our job toward that end is rebuilding some expectation of and admiration for virtue both in our candidates and our culture.

ColoradoDarin
08-15-2017, 01:40 PM
What does "national divorce" even mean? The divide is predominately urban vs small town/rural more than it's coasts vs the heartland. How do you divorce the urban population from the small town/rural population?

When I lived in Cali, the Republicans there are more liberal than the Democrats here in NC.

We're probably going to have to divide up states, and yes, people are going to have to move. I'd take that over millions of people dying.

elsid13
08-15-2017, 01:45 PM
When I lived in Cali, the Republicans there are more liberal than the Democrats here in NC.

We're probably going to have to divide up states, and yes, people are going to have to move. I'd take that over millions of people dying.

Can we get over this stupid internet theory that US is going to have another civil war. There is no underlying factors showing us to be failing state.

Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 01:48 PM
Geez. Nobody read the article.

According to findings that Motesharrei and his colleagues published in 2014, there are two factors that matter: ecological strain and economic stratification. The ecological category is the more widely understood and recognised path to potential doom, especially in terms of depletion of natural resources such as groundwater, soil, fisheries and forests – all of which could be worsened by climate change.

That economic stratification may lead to collapse on its own, on the other hand, came as more of a surprise to Motesharrei and his colleagues. Under this scenario, elites push society toward instability and eventual collapse by hoarding huge quantities of wealth and resources, and leaving little or none for commoners who vastly outnumber them yet support them with labour. Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the elites due to the absence of labour.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
08-15-2017, 02:13 PM
Geez. Nobody read the article.

According to findings that Motesharrei and his colleagues published in 2014, there are two factors that matter: ecological strain and economic stratification. The ecological category is the more widely understood and recognised path to potential doom, especially in terms of depletion of natural resources such as groundwater, soil, fisheries and forests – all of which could be worsened by climate change.

That economic stratification may lead to collapse on its own, on the other hand, came as more of a surprise to Motesharrei and his colleagues. Under this scenario, elites push society toward instability and eventual collapse by hoarding huge quantities of wealth and resources, and leaving little or none for commoners who vastly outnumber them yet support them with labour. Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the elites due to the absence of labour.

The latter scenario should have been obvious to anyone who was awake during the Dubya years and who witnessed the crash of 2008 - not to mention anyone who's familiar with the histories of other feudal societies.

Not sure why this came as a surprise to the researchers.

BroncoBeavis
08-15-2017, 02:28 PM
Geez. Nobody read the article.

According to findings that Motesharrei and his colleagues published in 2014, there are two factors that matter: ecological strain and economic stratification. The ecological category is the more widely understood and recognised path to potential doom, especially in terms of depletion of natural resources such as groundwater, soil, fisheries and forests – all of which could be worsened by climate change.

That economic stratification may lead to collapse on its own, on the other hand, came as more of a surprise to Motesharrei and his colleagues. Under this scenario, elites push society toward instability and eventual collapse by hoarding huge quantities of wealth and resources, and leaving little or none for commoners who vastly outnumber them yet support them with labour. Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the elites due to the absence of labour.

What was TR's prescription?

Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 02:34 PM
What was TR's prescription?

"Now, this means that our government, national and state, must be freed from the sinister influence or control of special interests."

"The true friend of property, the true conservative, is he who insists that property shall be the servant and not the master of the commonwealth; who insists that the creature of man’s making shall be the servant and not the master of the man who made it. The citizens of the United States must effectively control the mighty commercial forces which they have called into being. There can be no effective control of corporations while their political activity remains."

"It has become entirely clear that we must have government supervision of the capitalization, not only of public service corporations, including, particularly, railways, but of all corporations doing an interstate business."

"I believe that the officers, and, especially, the directors, of corporations should be held personally responsible when any corporation breaks the law."

"No man should receive a dollar unless that dollar has been fairly earned. Every dollar received should represent a dollar’s worth of service rendered — not gambling in stocks, but service rendered. The really big fortune, the swollen fortune, by the mere fact of its size acquires qualities which differentiate it in kind as well as in degree from what is possessed by men of relatively small means. Therefore, I believe in a graduated income tax on big fortunes, and in another tax which is far more easily collected and far more effective — a graduated inheritance tax on big fortunes, properly safeguarded against evasion, and increasing rapidly in amount with the size of the estate."

BroncoBeavis
08-15-2017, 02:39 PM
"Now, this means that our government, national and state, must be freed from the sinister influence or control of special interests."

"The true friend of property, the true conservative, is he who insists that property shall be the servant and not the master of the commonwealth; who insists that the creature of man’s making shall be the servant and not the master of the man who made it. The citizens of the United States must effectively control the mighty commercial forces which they have called into being. There can be no effective control of corporations while their political activity remains."

"It has become entirely clear that we must have government supervision of the capitalization, not only of public service corporations, including, particularly, railways, but of all corporations doing an interstate business."

"I believe that the officers, and, especially, the directors, of corporations should be held personally responsible when any corporation breaks the law."

"No man should receive a dollar unless that dollar has been fairly earned. Every dollar received should represent a dollar’s worth of service rendered — not gambling in stocks, but service rendered. The really big fortune, the swollen fortune, by the mere fact of its size acquires qualities which differentiate it in kind as well as in degree from what is possessed by men of relatively small means. Therefore, I believe in a graduated income tax on big fortunes, and in another tax which is far more easily collected and far more effective — a graduated inheritance tax on big fortunes, properly safeguarded against evasion, and increasing rapidly in amount with the size of the estate."

I knew that part. I'm just wondering why you thought that era (of excess) had a (mostly) peaceable resolution but we're now doomed to fracture.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
08-15-2017, 03:13 PM
I knew that part. I'm just wondering why you thought that era (of excess) had a (mostly) peaceable resolution but we're now doomed to fracture.

Because there are no more Teddy Roosevelts in American politics.

The special interests won.

elsid13
08-15-2017, 03:27 PM
Because there are no more Teddy Roosevelts in American politics.

The special interests won.

Society and political environment needs to be right for someone like TR to get a chance. I have strange feeling if we can survive Trump, that environment might be ready for the next great American President. We have gone through a 40 years cycle of Reaganomics that Trump is going to bring down just because of who he is.

BroncoBeavis
08-15-2017, 03:35 PM
Society and political environment needs to be right for someone like TR to get a chance. I have strange feeling if we can survive Trump, that environment might be ready for the next great American President. We have gone through a 40 years cycle of Reaganomics that Trump is going to bring down just because of who he is.

Much as modern progressives hate to say it, conditions today aren't nearly so desperate as they were for the lowest classes of the gilded age.

The further we head down that road, the more push there will be for change. But I'm not opposed to a much bigger anti-monopolist stance from our federal government as it sits. And those kind of efforts could already go a long way towards bringing down some barriers.

elsid13
08-15-2017, 03:46 PM
Much as modern progressives hate to say it, conditions today aren't nearly so desperate as they were for the lowest classes of the gilded age.

The further we head down that road, the more push there will be for change. But I'm not opposed to a much bigger anti-monopolist stance from our federal government as it sits. And those kind of efforts could already go a long way towards bringing down some barriers.

Mainly because of the laws of that era have helped prevent us from retreating to poverty of that era. But there are politicians and special interest attempt to chip away at those laws.

I agree the Federal and State Government have to more anti-monopoly, and I would start with the Radio and TV companies.

BroncoBeavis
08-15-2017, 03:51 PM
I agree the Federal and State Government have to more anti-monopoly, and I would start with the Radio and TV companies.

Nah. It needs to start in finance. Maybe in the media conglomerates crossing all mediums, and even into tech. But radio and TV themselves become less relevant by the day.

Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 04:31 PM
I knew that part. I'm just wondering why you thought that era (of excess) had a (mostly) peaceable resolution but we're now doomed to fracture.

In a word? Polarization.

You need to read up on the era. It was incredibly violent. In fact, one of the first challenges in TR's presidency was a wide-spread coal strike where people were regularly killing each other. Back then, the owners had no qualms about hiring thugs to beat strikers with bats or even to shoot and kill them. Matewan happened in that era. There were hunger strikes, labor strikes, riots. We've never seen anything like it in this century. Oddly enough, income inequality in America right now equals that era.

The authors of this piece say it will be more of a fizzling out than a civil war.

Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 04:34 PM
This study isn't the only one that points out that these factors are the road to societal collapse. For those who haven't seen it, I'll post it again: https://www.ted.com/talks/richard_wilkinson

BroncoBeavis
08-15-2017, 04:45 PM
In a word? Polarization.

You need to read up on the era. It was incredibly violent. In fact, one of the first challenges in TR's presidency was a wide-spread coal strike where people were regularly killing each other. Back then, the owners had no qualms about hiring thugs to beat strikers with bats or even to shoot and kill them. Matewan happened in that era. There were hunger strikes, labor strikes, riots. We've never seen anything like it in this century. Oddly enough, income inequality in America right now equals that era.

The authors of this piece say it will be more of a fizzling out than a civil war.

I'm pretty familiar with the history. It had its moments, but nothing resembling the civil war style outcomes being predicted in this thread.

BroncsRule
08-15-2017, 04:47 PM
Nah. It needs to start in finance. Maybe in the media conglomerates crossing all mediums, and even into tech. But radio and TV themselves become less relevant by the day.

That's a good start. I'd include:

the Military/Security Industrial Complex

The Extractive industries: Big Oil; Mining; Timber

Insurance/Financial Services

Big Agro

Big Pharma

ZONA
08-15-2017, 05:58 PM
Hilarious! rome's downfall was economic u fkn jackass

lol remember cesar? ...and all the other populares leaders that preceded him?

read a book.

You're relatively new to this area of the forum and I've noticed a trend with you. You're overly harsh towards members here. Not quite as bad as that one guy who started coming here a few months ago (broncoblood or something like that) and he's now disappeared. We all bang on one another to some degree, but you've been trending downward lately.

Bronco Yoda
08-15-2017, 06:14 PM
Hilarious! rome's downfall was economic u fkn jackass

lol remember cesar? ...and all the other populares leaders that preceded him?

read a book.

Roh isn't really into Books. Papercuts and headaches and all that.

Nor is he into video spoon feeding on a book.

Now come to think of it... he's not into talking about videos concerning books.

Perhaps audio books might open him up to learning? hmmmmm....

Rohirrim
08-15-2017, 06:44 PM
You're relatively new to this area of the forum and I've noticed a trend with you. You're overly harsh towards members here. Not quite as bad as that one guy who started coming here a few months ago (broncoblood or something like that) and he's now disappeared. We all bang on one another to some degree, but you've been trending downward lately.

She's an odd combination of arrogance, ignorance and incoherence. She's one of those people who at some point is described by her neighbors: "She was always quiet, and kept to herself."

elsid13
08-15-2017, 06:51 PM
Nah. It needs to start in finance. Maybe in the media conglomerates crossing all mediums, and even into tech. But radio and TV themselves become less relevant by the day.

Majority of Americans still get their information from TV and online news sources are being dominated by the same players.

http://www.journalism.org/2016/07/07/pathways-to-news/

LoserSlick
08-15-2017, 08:13 PM
You're relatively new to this area of the forum and I've noticed a trend with you. You're overly harsh towards members here. Not quite as bad as that one guy who started coming here a few months ago (broncoblood or something like that) and he's now disappeared. We all bang on one another to some degree, but you've been trending downward lately.

lol sorry man. i know you got caught in my cross hairs once or twice. i do believe i apologized for it tho in one form or another the handful of times i can remember.

but no, i pretty much have one setting. and it's correlative to the ever fuild current absurdity of three particular users

rmsanger
08-15-2017, 10:16 PM
Hilarious! rome's downfall was economic u fkn jackass

lol remember cesar? ...and all the other populares leaders that preceded him?

read a book.

Rome's downfall was far more complicated that "economic" and America certainly is no Rome.

Bronco Yoda
08-15-2017, 10:54 PM
How about some of you angry kids try surrounding and protesting the 1%ers once in awhile. The Hamptons would shiat themselves. I realize that attacking a dozen clueless white supremacist is gratifying and all... when you're not getting yourself beat up or killed.

But I'm just thinking... maybe... just maybe you should try harassing the people and corporations that are actually affecting your lives.

Funny... I don't recall Antifa or BLM at this years Bilderberg shindig.

LoserSlick
08-15-2017, 10:59 PM
Rome's downfall was far more complicated that "economic" and America certainly is no Rome.

lol of course it's more complicated. and, not to provoke a semantic argument, but the term "economics" is also far more complicated than mere consumption, production, and distribution.

the point is that roh's implication was that imperialism is what killed rome. which is false. lol not only is it false, but, technically, you probably even go so far as to argue that imperialism is precisely what extended rome's life another 1400 years

i'm happy to start a dialogue on the history of rome's collapse (rome 1.0), but you can't sit there and characterize roman imperialism - which, to again use your phrase, is far more complicated - with a single brush stroke to make a political point. even more so when you are comparing apples and oranges to begin with. lol not only did rome not have the geographic/oceanic "mote" that the US has, but they didn't have a china and a russia to deal with--and two completely fubared respective relationships with them following two world wars.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
08-16-2017, 12:41 AM
I realize that attacking a dozen clueless white supremacist is gratifying and all...

There you go with the minimization again. tsk tsk

You'd have us believe your Nazi brethren are "clueless" but ultimately loveable good ol' boys who mean no harm.

Guess Who
08-16-2017, 01:18 AM
of liberal, democratic Western civilization, anyway. ;D

“Western nations are not going to collapse, but the smooth operation and friendly nature of Western society will disappear, because inequity is going to explode,” Randers argues. “Democratic, liberal society will fail, while stronger governments like China will be the winners.”

Some of these forecasts and early warning signs should sound familiar, precisely because they are already underway. While Homer-Dixon is not surprised at the world’s recent turn of events – he predicted some of them in his 2006 book – he didn’t expect these developments to occur before the mid-2020s.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse

Angry white people that would rather live under a dictatorship as long as minorities were persecuted more than they are already.

Rohirrim
08-16-2017, 07:24 AM
Rome's downfall was far more complicated that "economic" and America certainly is no Rome.

As the article points out, a big part of it was Rome overextending itself and trying to defend larger and larger frontiers. This led to hiring mercenary armies, raising taxes, producing more food and all the associated transport issues, etc. etc. It's why the empire was split in two. History proves there are intrinsic limits to empire.

Rohirrim
08-16-2017, 07:25 AM
Angry white people that would rather live under a dictatorship as long as minorities were persecuted more than they are already.

???

LoserSlick
08-16-2017, 12:16 PM
As the article points out, a big part of it was Rome overextending itself and trying to defend larger and larger frontiers. This led to hiring mercenary armies, raising taxes, producing more food and all the associated transport issues, etc. etc. It's why the empire was split in two. History proves there are intrinsic limits to empire.

there aren't limits. only stupidity. and a failure to adapt.

it wasn't the fact that they were imperialistic. their imperialism was actually one of their most beneficial characteristics that the west complimented from (unlike the bullsh*t romanticized stories of alexander's "hellenistizing," so-called). they brought literacy to the illiterate, and law to the lawless. understand that there really wasn't any comprehensive understanding of "economics" at the time. the populares fought tooth and nail and against the optimates to at least inadvertently address some of those 'most glaring' economic imbalances. not only were they hated by the senate and the ruling class, but the populares had been corrupted enough times that when cesar finally came around he ultimately paid the price for it (as did most populares leaders). and it's especially tragic because cesar was one of the few populares leader that could have turned things around. he was certainly the most intelligent

but those were the death throws of the republic. and i believe cesar was only like five or so names removed from the list of roman leaders leading up to byzantium?

LoserSlick
08-16-2017, 12:24 PM
and i'm not advocating for any kind of modern imperialism.

just saying that roman expansionism was essential in the absence of understanding economics.

aside from the obvious economic considerations, if there are any parallels you should be trying to infer from the first rome's downfall, study the optimates and the populares. it's the only thing that's relevant to what's happening in america today