PDA

View Full Version : 2016 Pre-season Caponomics - Roster Projection


pricejj
08-23-2016, 09:09 PM
Welcome Broncos Fans!

If the Broncos cut lowly Punter Colquitt (points to the sky after 45-yard punt), I project them to have approximately $8.00M in remaining 2016 cap space, and $39.05M in 2017 cap space (including rollover). Dead money could be a little bit off.

Final 53 man roster projection and depth chart below. First cuts down to 75 man roster are in 6 days.

Kaylore
08-23-2016, 09:12 PM
I bet Hillman doesn't make the team.

pricejj
08-23-2016, 09:17 PM
I bet Hillman doesn't make the team.

I agonized over that one. Going to be running ALOT this year. 3rd RB is going to be deactivated unless there is injury. To me, Hillman is better than Bibbs.

pricejj
08-23-2016, 09:18 PM
1. Surprise projection - Sankey over Nelson
2. Surprise projection - Peko makes it by default due to Walker injury

Agamemnon
08-23-2016, 09:22 PM
What do the "rdp" notes on the side mean exactly? I gather that they are references to draft picks, but I'm missing the context.

KapriBibbs4prez
08-23-2016, 09:27 PM
I'd bet Phillip or Graham make the roster.

pricejj
08-23-2016, 09:36 PM
What do the "rdp" notes on the side mean exactly? I gather that they are references to draft picks, but I'm missing the context.

3rdp = 3rd round draft pick


I put all the draft picks in to try to get an accurate projection.

Fitzy47
08-23-2016, 09:45 PM
Sanchez might be gone freeing up a roster spot. I disagree and think Nelson makes the final 53. Also, Bibbs plays special teams which probably gives him the edge over Hillman.

Agamemnon
08-23-2016, 10:18 PM
3rdp = 3rd round draft pick


I put all the draft picks in to try to get an accurate projection.

Ah, so you are swapping in those draft picks for guys you think will be gone?

bowtown
08-23-2016, 10:23 PM
Ah, so you are swapping in those draft picks for guys you think will be gone?

Yeah, I don't really understand it at all.

pricejj
08-23-2016, 10:29 PM
Ah, so you are swapping in those draft picks for guys you think will be gone?

Precisely. The draft picks are used to fill projected roster holes. and to keep a more accurate 2-year running cap (updated continuously). The Broncos 2017 draft picks are future cap liabilities that must be accounted for, whereas a guy like Demarcus Ware is a UFA in 2017 (and figures to retire).

bowtown
08-23-2016, 10:46 PM
Precisely. The draft picks are used to fill projected roster holes. and to keep a more accurate 2-year running cap (updated continuously). The Broncos 2017 draft picks are future cap liabilities that must be accounted for, whereas a guy like Demarcus Ware is a UFA in 2017 (and figures to retire).

Why go through the totally fantasy exercise of assigning draft picks to positions, rather than just adding up their cost?

BroncosfanGuy
08-23-2016, 10:59 PM
colquitt will probably be on the rooster again much to the chagrin of a lot of posters. he was key to the Super Bowl run and he's looked better than Dixon thus far

pricejj
08-23-2016, 11:06 PM
Why go through the totally fantasy exercise of assigning draft picks to positions, rather than just adding up their cost?

1. Because, if you know where all the Broncos current and future roster weaknesses will be you can decide where you think the Broncos will potentially spend money in FA, and then you can predict where they may potentially go in the draft.

2. You can also determine if you think a guy is under-performing and needs to be re-structured or cut 2 years before it happens.

For instance, I can tell you right now that the Broncos can extend Sanders ($11M per year) and Stewart ($6M per year) and still have $22M to pursue possibly an impact 3-tech or pass rusher (if Shane Ray doesn't pan out), while drafting a 1st round MLB, a 2nd round RG, and filling out the rest of the roster with remaining draft picks, to complete the 2017 53-man roster with no holes and impact players at nearly every single position (except Center). Pretty powerful, huh?

ColoradoDarin
08-24-2016, 06:05 AM
At this point I think Colquitt makes the team, Sanchez is cut, Hillman is cut.

MamaMia
08-24-2016, 06:22 AM
1. Because, if you know where all the Broncos current and future roster weaknesses will be you can decide where you think the Broncos will potentially spend money in FA, and then you can predict where they may potentially go in the draft.

2. You can also determine if you think a guy is under-performing and needs to be re-structured or cut 2 years before it happens.

For instance, I can tell you right now that the Broncos can extend Sanders ($11M per year) and Stewart ($6M per year) and still have $22M to pursue possibly an impact 3-tech or pass rusher (if Shane Ray doesn't pan out), while drafting a 1st round MLB, a 2nd round RG, and filling out the rest of the roster with remaining draft picks, to complete the 2017 53-man roster with no holes and impact players at nearly every single position (except Center). Pretty powerful, huh?

In terms of the process, thats pretty cool.

However getting into specifics, i do not feel we will draft mlb that high unless someone really good falls to us... Which is unlikely unless our season is ****. Havent we been begging for a mlb for years now only to watch them plug and play various late round picks in there? And now with Wade's scheme our mlbs are essentially olbs. Honestly it seems like they feel confident that they dont need to invest heavily in the position.

Pass rusher is another story. Ray could turn out to be the guy but hes far from Ware or Von quality atm and imo having two elite rushers is one of the things that takes this defense to another level.

I wouldnt mind seeing OL first round

MamaMia
08-24-2016, 06:24 AM
Also i dont think there is any way we keep dekoda watson. He is a one trick pony and would be our fifth pass rusher behind von, ware, barrett and ray.

Vottomatic19
08-24-2016, 07:53 AM
What is the dead money on our cap if we were to cut Talib after this season? I think it's very likely, given a suspension is looming and Roby is perfectly capable of replacing him. Also related, I think we will be drafting a CB in the first round next year.

v2micca
08-24-2016, 07:55 AM
Precisely. The draft picks are used to fill projected roster holes. and to keep a more accurate 2-year running cap (updated continuously). The Broncos 2017 draft picks are future cap liabilities that must be accounted for, whereas a guy like Demarcus Ware is a UFA in 2017 (and figures to retire).

I hope I am wrong, but I think you are being a little optimistic on Okung and Stephenson. I think one or both could potentially be an injury casualty for 2017. Okung's contract was specifically structured to allow us to cut him without cap repercussions if he doesn't work out. Regardless, I would love to see this team invest some first round picks in the offensive line in 2017. Some of our young guys are showing promise, but our depth is scary and our Tackle situation is not reassuring long-term.

Requiem
08-24-2016, 08:00 AM
Thanks, pricejj. I don't think Sankey and Peko make the team and I'm not sure Colquitt gets cut. He has performed better than Dixon thus far. Would like us to save that $ tho.

Requiem
08-24-2016, 08:02 AM
The team is going to pick up Okung's option if he does well this year. No reason they wouldn't. Do you think they really want to get into a bidding war on the top LT in FA (whoever that is) and pay tons of more guarantees and bonuses that they likely don't have to do with Okung?

v2micca
08-24-2016, 08:06 AM
The team is going to pick up Okung's option if he does well this year. No reason they wouldn't. Do you think they really want to get into a bidding war on the top LT in FA (whoever that is) and pay tons of more guarantees and bonuses that they likely don't have to do with Okung?

I agree, if Okung stays healthy it is the best case scenario for us. I'm just looking at the odds. There is a very real possibility that he breaks down and we are forced to move on in 2017. It would suck, but its there.

TonyR
08-24-2016, 08:07 AM
I wouldnt mind seeing OL first round

I've been saying this for 3+ years...

Requiem
08-24-2016, 08:10 AM
Not the best draft in 2017 for OT. I think there are only two top flight OT's worthy of first-rounders at this point in time. Cam Robinson and Roderick Johnson. Cam easily goes Top 10, Johnson probably isn't too far behind.

If the Broncos do have a mediocre season (say 8-8 and picking ~ 20) with the extra compensatory picks they will get (that can now be traded!) they definitely could move up for Johnson, which would be absolutely awesome.

v2micca
08-24-2016, 08:22 AM
Not the best draft in 2017 for OT. I think there are only two top flight OT's worthy of first-rounders at this point in time. Cam Robinson and Roderick Johnson. Cam easily goes Top 10, Johnson probably isn't too far behind.

If the Broncos do have a mediocre season (say 8-8 and picking ~ 20) with the extra compensatory picks they will get (that can now be traded!) they definitely could move up for Johnson, which would be absolutely awesome.

We can always hope the a photo of Robinson taking a hit off of a bong when he was 18 surfaces the week before the draft causing him to tumble down to us.

Requiem
08-24-2016, 08:24 AM
What is the dead money on our cap if we were to cut Talib after this season? I think it's very likely, given a suspension is looming and Roby is perfectly capable of replacing him. Also related, I think we will be drafting a CB in the first round next year.

$2M in dead money in 2017, $1M in dead money in 2018.

Cap savings are like $10M each year. Absolutely no dead money in 2019.

ColoradoDarin
08-24-2016, 08:25 AM
What is the dead money on our cap if we were to cut Talib after this season? I think it's very likely, given a suspension is looming and Roby is perfectly capable of replacing him. Also related, I think we will be drafting a CB in the first round next year.

2 million dead, 10m cap savings. Over the Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/aqib-talib/1624/) for details. It's a decent contract if he's still playing at a high level. $10m this year, $12m for the following 2 and only $8m the final year.

ColoradoBuff
08-24-2016, 08:31 AM
I agonized over that one. Going to be running ALOT this year. 3rd RB is going to be deactivated unless there is injury. To me, Hillman is better than Bibbs.


no way Hillman is better than Bibbs. Bibbs brings more to the table by playing special teams and his effort is always there. Time to cut bait with Hillman!

ColoradoBuff
08-24-2016, 08:35 AM
Also i dont think there is any way we keep dekoda watson. He is a one trick pony and would be our fifth pass rusher behind von, ware, barrett and ray.


Kubiak said after the 49ers game that Dekota Watson will help the team this year. So he is pretty much safe i would say. Ware is going to be on a pitch count all year.

Mountain Bronco
08-24-2016, 08:40 AM
colquitt will probably be on the rooster again much to the chagrin of a lot of posters. he was key to the Super Bowl run and he's looked better than Dixon thus far

Yep and I am ok with that. A solid punter is huge with the way this team is constructed. See last years playoff run for evidence of this.

ICON
08-24-2016, 08:58 AM
At this point I think Colquitt makes the team, Sanchez is cut, Hillman is cut.

This

v2micca
08-24-2016, 09:20 AM
2 million dead, 10m cap savings. Over the Cap (http://overthecap.com/player/aqib-talib/1624/) for details. It's a decent contract if he's still playing at a high level. $10m this year, $12m for the following 2 and only $8m the final year.

Still, nice to know we have options if his play drops off this year of his off field antics make him un-employable. Roby looks ready to take over his spot and Webster or Doss hopefully step up this year to man the slot CB position.

fontaine
08-24-2016, 09:37 AM
Great work price.

No way Sankey is making the team though.

MamaMia
08-24-2016, 09:43 AM
Still, nice to know we have options if his play drops off this year of his off field antics make him un-employable. Roby looks ready to take over his spot and Webster or Doss hopefully step up this year to man the slot CB position.

I've seen this narrative time and time again but if people think that Roby is going to be as good as Talib I think they are going to be a little disappointed. I just don't think he has that fast twitch, lateral quickness that both Harris and Talib possess. No doubt, he's a solid player, but I wouldn't cut Talib unless his play drops or he becomes an off field issue.

Pony Boy
08-24-2016, 09:53 AM
Juwan Thompson is a backup RB and FB and special teams wrecking ball, I think that leaves Bibbs and Hillman butting heads for the last spot.

MamaMia
08-24-2016, 10:02 AM
Juwan Thompson is a backup RB and FB and special teams wrecking ball, I think that leaves Bibbs and Hillman butting heads for the last spot.

If it's between Bibbs and Hillman, to me it comes down to 1. Special Teams 2. Pass protection 3. Catching

One thing Hillman is unexpectedly good at is pass protection, at least compared to other RBs on our roster.

underrated29
08-24-2016, 10:07 AM
I lvoe me some roby. Called us drafting him, but he is not on Talibs level. He is solid no doubt, but not talib solid. Not yet. I would hold on to talib until he starts to slip....He can shoot himself in the ass all he wants.

Bibbs is a much better runner than hillman. Id argue just as fast or faster too. Not as good in pass pro tho thats what hurts him. However, he does ST better and he can actually catch the ball and he wants to be here. He wants to play.

Agamemnon
08-24-2016, 10:08 AM
If it's between Bibbs and Hillman, to me it comes down to 1. Special Teams 2. Pass protection 3. Catching

One thing Hillman is unexpectedly good at is pass protection, at least compared to other RBs on our roster.

Hillman isn't that good at protection.

BroncoBeavis
08-24-2016, 11:15 AM
Hillman isn't that good at protection.

Better than Travis Henry.

TonyR
08-24-2016, 11:28 AM
Better than Travis Henry.

At first I was all, "huh?". And then I was all, "ahhhhhhh!".

cmhargrove
08-24-2016, 01:29 PM
colquitt will probably be on the rooster again much to the chagrin of a lot of posters. he was key to the Super Bowl run and he's looked better than Dixon thus far

+1

Have you seen our Qb's play? We need the best punter money can buy.

bpc
08-28-2016, 10:10 AM
Bump time. Rosters will be decided shortly.

Broncojef
08-28-2016, 10:23 AM
Hillman made the team after last nights play think Bibbs is gone.

RonMexico
08-28-2016, 11:06 AM
Hillman made the team after last nights play think Bibbs is gone.

I agree.

RonMexico
08-28-2016, 11:10 AM
Welcome Broncos Fans!

If the Broncos cut lowly Punter Colquitt (points to the sky after 45-yard punt), I project them to have approximately $8.00M in remaining 2016 cap space, and $39.05M in 2017 cap space (including rollover). Dead money could be a little bit off.

Final 53 man roster projection and depth chart below. First cuts down to 75 man roster are in 6 days.

Excellent post.

This forum will have much richer conversation with more posts of this quality. You actually put work into your opinions and they contribute to the Broncos collective consciousness. Keep it up!

LikeABoss5820
08-28-2016, 11:37 AM
Sanchez/Colquitt probably the two most interesting cap cuts.

Not sure Hillman gets cut.

bpc
08-28-2016, 01:08 PM
Colquit/Hillman vs Dixon/Bibbs. Battle of the present vs future. Honestly I think Denver goes for the deepest team it can have this year. I think quit/Hillman stick.

hipster.doofus
08-28-2016, 01:33 PM
If Talib is suspended 8 games this season (or next season), the Broncos will get about ~$5M of cap space back... right?

Br0nc0Buster
08-28-2016, 01:41 PM
On phone can't post link but Vic Lombardi sent out a tweet saying Sanchez is expected to get cut.

fontaine
08-28-2016, 01:44 PM
If Talib is suspended 8 games this season (or next season), the Broncos will get about ~$5M of cap space back... right?

Yes, I think so. He would be put on the reserved/suspended list and his base salary for missed games won't count. Don't know if that cap relief is applied this year or next - doesn't matter though as the cap space rolls over.

BroncoMan4ever
08-28-2016, 01:47 PM
Yes, I think so. He would be put on the reserved/suspended list and his base salary for missed games won't count. Don't know if that cap relief is applied this year or next - doesn't matter though as the cap space rolls over.

I thought the player lost the game checks, but the number still counted towards the cap.

pricejj
08-28-2016, 01:48 PM
On phone can't post link but Vic Lombardi sent out a tweet saying Sanchez is expected to get cut.

I consider this much more likely. Lynch ain't close to ready.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Excellent point. Consider it a $1.5M insurance policy. <a href="https://t.co/7bqjbMkB6P">https://t.co/7bqjbMkB6P</a></p>&mdash; Vic Lombardi (@VicLombardi) <a href="https://twitter.com/VicLombardi/status/769923058383544321">August 28, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

fontaine
08-28-2016, 02:58 PM
I thought the player lost the game checks, but the number still counted towards the cap.

I'm going by how Martavius Bryant's cap is being treated this year. Pretty sure the Steelers don't get charged for his year long suspension.

orinjkrush
08-28-2016, 03:07 PM
How much more $$$ does Hemanual want/need? What's the gap?

LikeABoss5820
08-28-2016, 03:10 PM
How much more $$$ does Hemanual want/need? What's the gap?

He wants i'd guess 10-11 mil a year, hes said he doesnt wanna break the bank.

Thats perfectly fine, given our other receivers are questionable and DT's softness at times, i'd pay him.

LikeABoss5820
08-28-2016, 03:15 PM
Sanders hasnt made much in terms of NFL money and he'll be 30 soon so i dont blame him for trying to get paid.

If anyone deserves it, its him, hes big time.

MOCRUSH
08-28-2016, 07:24 PM
He wants i'd guess 10-11 mil a year, hes said he doesnt wanna break the bank.

Thats perfectly fine, given our other receivers are questionable and DT's softness at times, i'd pay him.

Not sure we can get him for Tavon Austin money, Lambs just skewed the market.

LikeABoss5820
08-30-2016, 03:17 PM
Not sure we can get him for Tavon Austin money, Lambs just skewed the market.

Sanders will be 30 years old.

I doubt hes gonna want 13-15 mil a year (thats top 3-6 WR money)

4 years, 44 mil would probably get it done but i dunno if Elway goes that far.

LikeABoss5820
08-30-2016, 03:17 PM
Up to 8.6 in cap space now if Over the Cap is correct.

Could be up to 11ish if Sanchez is cut/traded as well.