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View Full Version : Why this week I would be nervous being a Broncos fan


JWBlue
01-28-2014, 05:36 PM
Congrats Broncos fans. The team is playing well on both sides of the ball at the right time.

The line in Las Vegas is Denver -2.5 and the vast majority of money is on Denver. Las Vegas doesn't usually lose big.

On paper this seems like a comfortable win for Denver. The NFL is all about QB play and Manning led Denver has a huge advantage.

Denver stops the run well and they should be able to contain Marshawn Lynch.

A blowout is not out of the question.

On the other hand I can't see Las Vegas having their head handed to them.

BroncoFanatic
01-28-2014, 05:39 PM
I don't understand...you say we should be nervous, but your post would lead one to have confidence?

I agree with your post, rather than your title, but thanks :thumbsup:

For myself, I am not worried about this game, I do believe we win comfortably.

Broncobiv
01-28-2014, 05:49 PM
He's saying that everyone is betting Denver, and Vegas doesn't usually lose money, therefore Seahawks win.

Agamemnon
01-28-2014, 05:51 PM
I'm only nervous because anything can happen in football. Denver vs. Seattle is a schematic mismatch of epic proportions though. As long as Denver plays their game they will win and likely win handily.

Archer81
01-28-2014, 05:51 PM
SD jinx mojo doesnt work. It died with the defeat of the bolo tie wearing marmalard.


:Broncos:

Agamemnon
01-28-2014, 05:52 PM
He's saying that everyone is betting Denver, and Vegas doesn't usually lose money, therefore Seahawks win.

Vegas loses money all the time. They just don't lose money often enough for it to counter all the sucker bets that make them rich.

theAPAOps5
01-28-2014, 05:55 PM
Congrats Broncos fans. The team is playing well on both sides of the ball at the right time.

The line in Las Vegas is Denver -2.5 and the vast majority of money is on Denver. Las Vegas doesn't usually lose big.

On paper this seems like a comfortable win for Denver. The NFL is all about QB play and Manning led Denver has a huge advantage.

Denver stops the run well and they should be able to contain Marshawn Lynch.

A blowout is not out of the question.

On the other hand I can't see Las Vegas having their head handed to them.

Great story brah

Broncobiv
01-28-2014, 05:56 PM
I know Seattle was favored by 1 the instant they won the NFCCG, and within the hour it had moved to Denver -2.5. So the line has not moved in 9 days.

Wouldn't that imply that the vast majority of money is not on Denver? That it is pretty evenly split? If it was as lopsided as you're implying, the line would've moved further in Denver's favor in order to encourage people to bet Seattle.

TripleTilde
01-28-2014, 05:59 PM
I don't understand...you say we should be nervous, but your post would lead one to have confidence?

I agree with your post, rather than your title, but thanks :thumbsup:

For myself, I am not worried about this game, I do believe we win comfortably.

XXXII--Broncos were couple digit underdogs.

TripleTilde
01-28-2014, 06:01 PM
I know Seattle was favored by 1 the instant they won the NFCCG, and within the hour it had moved to Denver -2.5. So the line has not moved in 9 days.

Wouldn't that imply that the vast majority of money is not on Denver? That it is pretty evenly split? If it was as lopsided as you're implying, the line would've moved further in Denver's favor in order to encourage people to bet Seattle.

The uncertainty of weather was a big factor in the original line.

andyh64000
01-28-2014, 06:03 PM
XXXII--Broncos were couple digit underdogs.

Wasn't it a 7 point spread? I had the Broncos on the Moneyline and -3.5 that year :).

Broncobiv
01-28-2014, 06:04 PM
Wasn't it a 7 point spread? I had the Broncos on the Moneyline and -3.5 that year :).

I remember it being GB -13.5

andyh64000
01-28-2014, 06:06 PM
I remember it being GB -13.5

You are right (or much closer). I guess is closed at -11 (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/1/27/5340000/super-bowl-2014-gambling-odds-prop-bets-history).

Rohirrim
01-28-2014, 06:07 PM
Thanks, Boltsfan. But don't worry about us. We've been to quite a few of these Super Bowls. We know how to handle the nerves. I'm not sayin'... :ouwknow:

Karenin
01-28-2014, 06:09 PM
Great thread you horrible dip****

bowtown
01-28-2014, 06:10 PM
I know Seattle was favored by 1 the instant they won the NFCCG, and within the hour it had moved to Denver -2.5. So the line has not moved in 9 days.

Wouldn't that imply that the vast majority of money is not on Denver? That it is pretty evenly split? If it was as lopsided as you're implying, the line would've moved further in Denver's favor in order to encourage people to bet Seattle.

Yes that is exactly what it implies. More baseless statements that seahwaks fans tell themselves to get through the day.

andyh64000
01-28-2014, 06:12 PM
Yes that is exactly what it implies. More baseless statements that seahwaks fans tell themselves to get through the day.

I read that 70% of the money was on the Broncos.

Broncos_OTM
01-28-2014, 06:12 PM
Not nervous, excited.

bowtown
01-28-2014, 06:16 PM
I read that 70% of the money was on the Broncos.

Do you have a link to that or did you read it on Seahawks.net?

errand
01-28-2014, 06:17 PM
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2014-01-27/super-bowl-2014-odds-line-favorite-broncos-seahawks-betting-las-vegas-1979

andyh64000
01-28-2014, 06:18 PM
Do you have a link to that or did you read it on Seahawks.net?

Covers (http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_2.html) which is a very good indicator.

TripleTilde
01-28-2014, 06:18 PM
I read that 70% of the money was on the Broncos.

How much of that was Mayweather?

andyh64000
01-28-2014, 06:19 PM
How much of that was Mayweather?

LOL

Broncobiv
01-28-2014, 06:20 PM
What does all of this mean? Broncos win 34-32.

We win. Vegas wins. The world rejoices.

Broncos_OTM
01-28-2014, 06:21 PM
I hope yalls team brings it better then you sea hawk fans have tried.

bowtown
01-28-2014, 06:36 PM
Covers (http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_2.html) which is a very good indicator.

That has nothing to do with where Vegas money is placed. Also from the article linked to above yours:

“You have to remember, there were only a few books back then, and gaming didn’t start tracking statewide Super Bowl figures until 1991. If something like that happened today, I’d say it would only be an overall loss of about 10 percent of the handle just because of all the other ways we have to show a profit beyond the spread and total of the game.”

So it actually makes little difference to Vegas.

andyh64000
01-28-2014, 06:42 PM
That has nothing to do with where Vegas money is placed. Also from the article linked to above yours:

“You have to remember, there were only a few books back then, and gaming didn’t start tracking statewide Super Bowl figures until 1991. If something like that happened today, I’d say it would only be an overall loss of about 10 percent of the handle just because of all the other ways we have to show a profit beyond the spread and total of the game.”

So it actually makes little difference to Vegas.

The sample size of Covers is more than adequate.

And yeah...the public loves prop bets so vegas does make a crapload of money on those. Also, as far as total money on the superbowl vegas really isn't accurate since offshore books will have a much larger handle on the game.

nyuk nyuk
01-28-2014, 06:49 PM
I know Seattle was favored by 1 the instant they won the NFCCG, and within the hour it had moved to Denver -2.5.

Yeah what a joke especially that fumble-prone performance and near loss at home which only came due to Kaepernick's terrible throw.

DENVERDUI55
01-28-2014, 07:13 PM
Some people have a hard time knowing how books make money.

JWBlue
01-28-2014, 07:30 PM
The line opened at Seattle -1.

LV didn't know money would pour in on Denver and Manning?

That line stunk to high heaven. Denver should have opened as a favorite.

TripleTilde
01-28-2014, 07:46 PM
Enlighten us.

The line opened at Seattle -1.

LV didn't know money would pour in on Denver and Manning?

That line stunk to high heaven. Denver should have opened as a favorite.

You missed all the Seahag fans trashing your team. They said the Chargers would have been 5th place out of 4 teams.

bowtown
01-28-2014, 07:51 PM
Enlighten us.

The line opened at Seattle -1.

LV didn't know money would pour in on Denver and Manning?

That line stunk to high heaven. Denver should have opened as a favorite.

So then you agree that we are the better team.

TonyR
01-28-2014, 08:00 PM
A recent article about Vegas and the Super Bowl.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/28/sports/football/in-las-vegas-putting-a-lot-on-the-line-for-the-super-bowl.html?_r=0

DENVERDUI55
01-28-2014, 08:01 PM
The line opened at Seattle -1.

LV didn't know money would pour in on Denver and Manning?

That line stunk to high heaven. Denver should have opened as a favorite.

What is the money bet on Denver vs Seattle? What is the house edge on a point spread wager at -110? If you were going to bet on Seattle wouldn't you wait until the line bottomed out and gave you the most points?

AZOrange 1
01-28-2014, 08:22 PM
OK, If the line opens up Seattle by 2 1/2 then everyone runs to bet on Denver getting 2 1/2, then the money piles up until the Bookie, Sports Book, etc change the + and - until the money balances. They are NOT in the business of losing money, only making it.

AZOrange 1
01-28-2014, 08:23 PM
What is the money bet on Denver vs Seattle? What is the house edge on a point spread wager at -110? If you were going to bet on Seattle wouldn't you wait until the line bottomed out and gave you the most points?

If you ASSUME the +2 1/2 will grow from what it is now.

maven
01-28-2014, 08:24 PM
Congrats Broncos fans. The team is playing well on both sides of the ball at the right time.

The line in Las Vegas is Denver -2.5 and the vast majority of money is on Denver. Las Vegas doesn't usually lose big.

On paper this seems like a comfortable win for Denver. The NFL is all about QB play and Manning led Denver has a huge advantage.

Denver stops the run well and they should be able to contain Marshawn Lynch.

A blowout is not out of the question.

On the other hand I can't see Las Vegas having their head handed to them.

Nervous? Just want the game to be played!

BroncoFanDoug
01-28-2014, 08:35 PM
If Vegas is usually right, then Denver is gonna win, yes?

And btw Vegas does not give a rat's ass about being right, what they want to do is split the betting money down the middle. There is no right, there is just the pct.

DENVERDUI55
01-28-2014, 08:38 PM
If Vegas is usually right, then Denver is gonna win, yes?

And btw Vegas does not give a rat's ass about being right, what they want to do is split the betting money down the middle. There is no right, there is just the pct.

Yep and they just want to get the betting close to even but it isn't that big of a deal. So many people make terrible prop bets and parlays that the books make a ton of money. They have only lost money on 2 sb's. The average winnings are 5.5 million on SB's.

rolandftw
01-28-2014, 08:43 PM
I don't see the point in being nervous throughout the game. Super Bowl appearances are hard to come by. Win or lose, I'm going to savor seeing the Broncos in this game.

SureShot
01-28-2014, 08:49 PM
They will make up for it on the prop bets

SeahawkTalons
01-28-2014, 08:52 PM
lol

Last year 49ers were a 4 point Vegas favorite....whoops.

DVOA predicted this Super Bowl matchup. And it predicts a 58+% chance of a Seattle win.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-20-dvoa-ratings

DENVERDUI55
01-28-2014, 08:53 PM
lol

Last year 49ers were a 4 point Vegas favorite....whoops.

DVOA predicted this Super Bowl matchup. And it predicts a 58+% chance of a Seattle win.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-20-dvoa-ratings

Go bet the moneyline then.

SeahawkTalons
01-28-2014, 09:00 PM
Go bet the moneyline then.

Bro, I bet my friend from Denver a new jersey.

He should work a little overtime this week imo.

Bronco Yoda
01-28-2014, 09:02 PM
lol

Last year 49ers were a 4 point Vegas favorite....whoops.

DVOA predicted this Super Bowl matchup. And it predicts a 58+% chance of a Seattle win.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-20-dvoa-ratings

Go with the DVOA! You should bet your life savings. Easy money.

BroncoFanDoug
01-28-2014, 09:05 PM
lol

Last year 49ers were a 4 point Vegas favorite....whoops.

DVOA predicted this Super Bowl matchup. And it predicts a 58+% chance of a Seattle win.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-20-dvoa-ratings

Everyone tells you that no one cares what Vegas says and then you make fun of Vegas to prove a point? I am thinking we have a troll or just someone IQ challenged. Or both. Well I guess it is always both.

broncocalijohn
01-29-2014, 12:17 AM
Glad I dont understand betting talk that OP gives us. Vegas isn't playing the game just paying the game.

Guess Who
01-29-2014, 12:18 AM
Congrats Broncos fans. The team is playing well on both sides of the ball at the right time.

The line in Las Vegas is Denver -2.5 and the vast majority of money is on Denver. Las Vegas doesn't usually lose big.

On paper this seems like a comfortable win for Denver. The NFL is all about QB play and Manning led Denver has a huge advantage.

Denver stops the run well and they should be able to contain Marshawn Lynch.

A blowout is not out of the question.

On the other hand I can't see Las Vegas having their head handed to them.

If Denver covers the spread Vegas will take a beating.

Jason in LA
01-29-2014, 01:28 AM
The folks in Vegas are not psychics. They move the line in order to get an even amount of folks to bet on both sides. They aren't in business to pick, or predict the winner.

Seeing that the line has seemed to stop moving (I don't pay much attention to it, so I could be wrong) it would appear that they are now getting the flow that they want, so I'm not sure how they are losing money. If the bets were still one sided towards the Broncos, wouldn't that number still be moving?

DENVERDUI55
01-29-2014, 08:26 AM
The folks in Vegas are not psychics. They move the line in order to get an even amount of folks to bet on both sides. They aren't in business to pick, or predict the winner.

Seeing that the line has seemed to stop moving (I don't pay much attention to it, so I could be wrong) it would appear that they are now getting the flow that they want, so I'm not sure how they are losing money. If the bets were still one sided towards the Broncos, wouldn't that number still be moving?Yes the line would keep moving. As I have said before the books average 5.5 mil profit per superbowl. They have only lost 2 superbowls. For the people that claim they will take a beating show us how the money is bet on each side.

TheElusiveKyleOrton
01-29-2014, 08:43 AM
Every post from Seagull Talons:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/XaajOH79MSU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Smiling Assassin27
01-29-2014, 08:49 AM
I'm only nervous because anything can happen in football. Denver vs. Seattle is a schematic mismatch of epic proportions though. As long as Denver plays their game , Ronnie Hillman stays in street clothes and our kick coverage does its job they will win and likely win handily.


FIFY

Greatspirits
01-29-2014, 08:51 AM
Great thread you horrible dip****

My lord, can't anyone post anything without someone getting their panties in a bunch.

scrap
01-29-2014, 08:53 AM
Congrats Broncos fans. The team is playing well on both sides of the ball at the right time.

The line in Las Vegas is Denver -2.5 and the vast majority of money is on Denver. Las Vegas doesn't usually lose big.

On paper this seems like a comfortable win for Denver. The NFL is all about QB play and Manning led Denver has a huge advantage.

Denver stops the run well and they should be able to contain Marshawn Lynch.

A blowout is not out of the question.

On the other hand I can't see Las Vegas having their head handed to them.

The big problem with your post is that you don't understand betting lines. The line moves when the money is uneven. The line was set with Seattle as slight fav's then enough money came in on Denver to move it. to Denver -2.5. Then more money came in on Seattle and it moved to Denver -2. You see, the reason vegas always makes money is by having the bets even on both sides and collecting the vig. If it was 70% on Denver then the line would move to 3 or 4 until it went the other way according to their algorithms. The only way that the sides get tilted is with BIG & LATE money on one side or another. This is why a local bookie has to be smart enough to adjust his own lines as needed d/t local homers etc. Vegas doesn't take a side, they take the middle and always will profit regardless of the outcome. Anyone who tells you different has an interest in making you believe that propaganda.

B-Large
01-29-2014, 08:55 AM
Brah, you trippin. this is gonna be a Seahawks shutout, Manning gonna retire in disgrace, Bowlen will probably sell the Franchise.

Crushaholic
01-29-2014, 10:08 AM
Brah, you trippin. this is gonna be a Seahawks shutout, Manning gonna retire in disgrace, Bowlen will probably sell the Franchise.

We have NO chance...

TheReverend
01-29-2014, 10:11 AM
Brah, you trippin. this is gonna be a Seahawks shutout, Manning gonna retire in disgrace, Bowlen will probably sell the Franchise.

Out.

nyuk nyuk
01-29-2014, 12:33 PM
Every post from Seagull Talons:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/XaajOH79MSU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

How is that not animal abuse?

nyuk nyuk
01-29-2014, 12:35 PM
Brah, you trippin. this is gonna be a Seahawks shutout, Manning gonna retire in disgrace, Bowlen will probably sell the Franchise.

Stupendous grammatical display. I would suggest more school and less hip hop. You may also consider a move from your mother's basement.

Rabb
01-29-2014, 12:39 PM
Stupendous grammatical display. I would suggest more school and less hip hop. You may also consider a move from your mother's basement.

The joke

^
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Your head

Powderaddict
01-29-2014, 12:42 PM
Stupendous grammatical display. I would suggest more school and less hip hop. You may also consider a move from your mother's basement.

I would suggest you change your avi title from "In the hizzouse". Something less hip hop and more school would be appropriate. I recommend "Inhabiting the domicile".

bpc
01-29-2014, 12:46 PM
Is it me, or does it appear Manning has been more relaxed as the season has gone on actually enjoying the experience? I'm feeling pretty damn confident that PFM is going to play a great game. It's going to be fun to watch. Hope all Broncos are preparing to play the game of their lives.

Paladin
01-29-2014, 12:49 PM
Either he is relaxed, or he doesn't understand what's going on.

Kaylore
01-29-2014, 12:53 PM
Is it me, or does it appear Manning has been more relaxed as the season has gone on actually enjoying the experience? I'm feeling pretty damn confident that PFM is going to play a great game. It's going to be fun to watch. Hope all Broncos are preparing to play the game of their lives.

I have noticed this as well. There is a calm about Manning that makes me feel calm. Maybe he's finally found his zen and that's what's made him unstoppable.

SeahawkTalons
01-29-2014, 12:53 PM
Either he is relaxed, or he doesn't understand what's going on.

Not playing against a real defense for over a year will do that imo

Paladin
01-29-2014, 12:59 PM
Not playing against a real defense for over a year will do that imo

And he won't see one on Sunday, either.

Rohirrim
01-29-2014, 01:03 PM
Not playing against a real defense for over a year will do that imo

You have four more days of dreaming left.

Tombstone RJ
01-29-2014, 01:04 PM
He's saying that everyone is betting Denver, and Vegas doesn't usually lose money, therefore Seahawks win.

LOL

yep!

dictionary
01-29-2014, 01:21 PM
Not playing against a real defense for over a year will do that imo

The sticky in Washington state must be AMAZING.

TripleTilde
01-29-2014, 03:10 PM
Not playing against a real defense for over a year will do that imo

Seattle will only have 11 men.

bpc
01-29-2014, 03:18 PM
I have noticed this as well. There is a calm about Manning that makes me feel calm. Maybe he's finally found his zen and that's what's made him unstoppable.

Whenever he's played bad, he's felt the pressure Indy/NE being the most obvious games, seemed tense and uncomfortable. I think the two wins in the playoffs, getting those monkeys off his back has released his nerves. I heard on radio he spent last night at Eli's house meeting his new niece for the first time. That will ground you for sure. Whatever it is, I hope it keeps going. He's been downright methodical in the playoffs. We are converting 65% of our 3rd down plays. That is FREAKING ridiculous.