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Arkie
06-24-2013, 04:46 PM
LEAP2020 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap2020) has a very accurate track record. Here's a summary of what they expect:


end 2013, financial impact: collapse of financial markets especially in the US and Japan. Banks can no longer be saved by States and bail-ins are put in place;
end 2013-2014, spreading to the real economy: the financial impasse causes/reveals a major world recession and the reduction of international trade;
2014, social impact: the economic deterioration causes unemployment to explode, in the United States the dollar’s decline lowers the standard of living, riots mushroom everywhere;
2014, political crisis: the governments of the most affected countries are under fire for their handling of the crisis, forced resignations and early elections are expected, if not coups;
2014-2015, international management of the crisis: together Euroland and the BRICS impose a new international monetary system and lay down the bases of a new global governance;

Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II: second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale (http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-76-is-available-Alert-for-the-second-half-of-2013-Global-systemic-crisis-II-second-devastating-explosion-social_a14266.html)

DenverBrit
06-24-2013, 05:39 PM
I remember their last big prediction.

In fact, it’s a question of the endgame for the world of before the crisis...the September October 2012 period will cause the “Dollar Wall’s” last sections and the walls which have protected the world as we know it since 1945 to collapse. The shock of the autumn 2008 will seem like a small summer storm compared to what will affect planet in several months. In fact LEAP/E2020 has never seen the chronological convergence of such a series of explosive and so fundamental factors (economy, finances, geopolitical…) since 2006, the start of its work on the global systemic crisis. Logically, in our modest attempt to regularly publish a “crisis weather forecast”, we must therefore give our readers a “Red Alert” because the upcoming events which are readying themselves to shake the world system next September/ October belong to this category.


They get some projections right and others are dead wrong. Just like every other 'expert.'

elsid13
06-24-2013, 05:56 PM
Excellent section in Nate Silver's book (The Signal and the Noise) about this and "expert" predication. Highly recommend that book for people interested in data analysis and statics.

mhgaffney
06-24-2013, 06:46 PM
The global economy is already in a depression.

A friend of mine tracks commodities and says industry is drawing on existing stockpiles of raw materials and is not resupplying -- given flat demand. This is true even for the most advanced parts of the economy. It's why the stock of companies that mine crucial materials like rare earth elements have declined. Low demand.

A dollar crisis -- followed by busted stock and bond market bubbles will only exacerbate this.
MHG