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View Full Version : Fox plays Percentages but his numbers were WRONG ... Plus Amazing coincidences Jags/Ravens Game


Hulamau
01-16-2013, 08:40 AM
Here's two interesting articles from DP that are worth the read.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2013/01/14/john-fox-playing-perentages-broncos-loss-numbers/18190/

This article destroys Foxy's argument and rationale for his ultra conservative stance to not go for a FG with 32 seconds and 2 time outs left, with a HOF QB and the whole season riding on the line.


http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2013/01/13/similarities-broncos-stunning-losses-jacksonville-baltimore-numerous/18170/

And the say lightning never strikes the same place twice!! The article above details the incredible Deja vu between Saturdays debacle and the 1996 Jags playoff Fail! .... Lets hope that Deja vu replays all the way out with Manning and Company winning the next two SBs as did the 97-98 team.

BroncoBeavis
01-16-2013, 08:53 AM
Here's two interesting articles from DP that are worth the read.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2013/01/14/john-fox-playing-perentages-broncos-loss-numbers/18190/

This article destroys Foxy's argument and rationale for his ultra conservative stance to not go for a FG with 32 seconds and 2 time outs left, with a HOF QB and the whole season riding on the line..

Thing that pisses me off most about this is that he still comes out and says "I'd do it 10 out of 10 times"

Why pop a squat on PFM in hurry up mode and let it all ride on a coin flip? It's senseless.

Hulamau
01-16-2013, 09:00 AM
Yep BB,, and the other excuse he had for doing it was the "team had just taken a right cross to the chin and was stunned and on the ropes so I thought it best to wait until the next round"!!

That may work in boxing but the analogy is a weak excuse in playoff football! The offense did NOT take it on the chin .. the defense did. Let the Offense go out there and have a decent shot with PMFM to rescue the game!!

Even Foxys vaunted 'stats' and 'percentages' upon which he plays this game were wrong and misleading. You have to know when the stats need to be thrown out the window Foxy .... And in this case you were wrong in any event, the real stats tell you to go for it .. P.S. just ask Atlanta!

spdirty
01-16-2013, 09:05 AM
If he does it again he's gone. I just have to trust that Elway will not put up with this, no matter what he says publicly.

BroncoBeavis
01-16-2013, 09:24 AM
Yep BB,, and the other excuse he had for doing it was the "team had just taken a right cross to the chin and was stunned and on the ropes so I thought it best to wait until the next round"!!

That may work in boxing but the analogy is a weak excuse in playoff football! The offense did NOT take it on the chin .. the defense did. Let the Offense go out there and have a decent shot with PMFM to rescue the game!!

Even Foxys vaunted 'stats' and 'percentages' upon which he plays this game were wrong and misleading. You have to know when the stats need to be thrown out the window Foxy .... And in this case you were wrong in any event, the real stats tell you to go for it .. P.S. just ask Atlanta!

Foxy had zero numbers in mind when he made that call. He says the percentages were with him, but his decision wasn't made by numbers or percentages. At the end of the day he's a defensive coach that just feels more comfortable making the game-breaking decisions on the defensive side of the ball. He sees relying on your defense as less 'risky' than relying on your offense. I'm sure his years in Carolina in addition to last year helped condition that into him.

But that's exactly the wrong mindset once you have PFM. We're a top-tier offense now. If Fox can't adjust that reality into his decision-making, we're going to have playoff issues (Marty style) every year.

Drunken.Broncoholic
01-16-2013, 09:26 AM
All these percentages Fox clings to are thrown out the window when the opposing team already showed IN THE GAME they could score at will, several times. Meaning they didnt need TIME to score. Meaning DISTANCE wasn't a problem for them. So lets just give them the ball again.

It's a perfect example of an HC not changing or adapting his philosophy when the game clearly says otherwise.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-16-2013, 10:09 AM
Here's another coincidence.

I've been to three Broncos games in Mile High in my life. One was in 1992 against SD (remember Sharpe's diving catch in the endzone? it was like his first big play as a bronco.) As for the other two, I sat on the 40 yard line for both the 96 Jax game and this past Ravens game. I feel partially responsible. I didnt protect the house for either.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-16-2013, 10:14 AM
Oh wait, there's more:

Both games had a bull**** pass interference penalty go against Denver that changed the course of the game early (Tory James interception/Tony Cart PI), both games had an oddly laughable kick (Prater's FG attempt/Elam missing the extra point). We can probably do this all day long.

2KBack
01-16-2013, 10:15 AM
I believe the percentages were the run on 3rd and seven and punt to burn the clock. Not the kneel down at the end of regulation.

go_broncos
01-16-2013, 10:19 AM
Pecentages????
Fox is too old to coach now.

TonyR
01-16-2013, 10:29 AM
I believe the percentages were the run on 3rd and seven and punt to burn the clock. Not the kneel down at the end of regulation.

^ That is correct.

Hulamau
01-16-2013, 10:30 AM
Foxy had zero numbers in mind when he made that call. He says the percentages were with him, but his decision wasn't made by numbers or percentages. At the end of the day he's a defensive coach that just feels more comfortable making the game-breaking decisions on the defensive side of the ball. He sees relying on your defense as less 'risky' than relying on your offense. I'm sure his years in Carolina in addition to last year helped condition that into him.

But that's exactly the wrong mindset once you have PFM. We're a top-tier offense now. If Fox can't adjust that reality into his decision-making, we're going to have playoff issues (Marty style) every year.

Agreed.. the 'percentages are on my side' defense Foxy used as his rationale were found only in 'his gut feel' as a defensive minded coach who, if he had his way and it would work, would abolish the forward pass and run every down!

I Love so much of what he does and brings to the table in many other key areas of what it takes to be a good HC, but late game and critical turning point offensive play calling is NOT his strong suit and likely never will be.

I trust this was the subtle message Elway tried to impart too that EVERY one with the team and FO has to evaluate what happened honestly and not become too defensive in order to turn this debacle into a great step forward toward our next world championship ... if Fox and others stick to this ... my way was the right call and Id do it 10 times out of 10 regardless of what hindsight and a more accurate understanding of the real stats shows, then its up to Elway to make sure Fox doesn't have the final say in that area of the game next time we are faced with such a critical decision.

I'm not at all suggesting demoting Fox, just recognizing that there are very few coaches who are equally good at all areas of their broad responsibility and take steps to shore up their areas of weakness.

CEH
01-16-2013, 10:39 AM
In both years, there was a Denver-area girl coming off four gold medals in swimming at the Summer Olympics (Amy Van Dyken, 1996 Atlanta Games; Missy Franklin, 2012 London Games).

This just blows my mine. Think about it

BroncoBeavis
01-16-2013, 11:58 AM
Here's another coincidence.

I've been to three Broncos games in Mile High in my life. One was in 1992 against SD (remember Sharpe's diving catch in the endzone? it was like his first big play as a bronco.) As for the other two, I sat on the 40 yard line for both the 96 Jax game and this past Ravens game. I feel partially responsible. I didnt protect the house for either.

Dude that sucks. If I were you I'm not sure I'd ever go to a game ever again. Ever. :)

Cito Pelon
01-16-2013, 12:00 PM
The elephant in the room may have been Fox knew Manning was physically limited throwing downfield, limited throwing with velocity downfield.

And if you're gonna try to move the ball 50 yds in two/three plays Manning would have had to hit some 20 yd throws with mustard on them. Did Manning hit an out pattern all day?

broncocalijohn
01-16-2013, 12:03 PM
Yep BB,, and the other excuse he had for doing it was the "team had just taken a right cross to the chin and was stunned and on the ropes so I thought it best to wait until the next round"!!

That may work in boxing but the analogy is a weak excuse in playoff football! The offense did NOT take it on the chin .. the defense did. Let the Offense go out there and have a decent shot with PMFM to rescue the game!!

Even Foxys vaunted 'stats' and 'percentages' upon which he plays this game were wrong and misleading. You have to know when the stats need to be thrown out the window Foxy .... And in this case you were wrong in any event, the real stats tell you to go for it .. P.S. just ask Atlanta!

His reasoning might work really well to end the half and Broncos get the ball starting the 2nd half but when you have a chance to win it in regulation, go for it! You have a HOF QB and good wide receivers to take the chance. Even if Peyton throws an INT on their side of the field, there might only be 10 seconds left and no timeouts. Of course they could then chuck it to Boldin for the hail mary score over Moore. :giggle:

broncocalijohn
01-16-2013, 12:05 PM
Oh wait, there's more:

Both games had a bull**** pass interference penalty go against Denver that changed the course of the game early (Tory James interception/Tony Cart PI), both games had an oddly laughable kick (Prater's FG attempt/Elam missing the extra point). We can probably do this all day long.

I can't remember the extra point but maybe that is why we went for "2" after a score and Sharpe dropped it. I remember him laughing as if it wasn't a big deal. I am sure he regrets that remark to this day.

MplsBronco
01-16-2013, 12:27 PM
I can't remember the extra point but maybe that is why we went for "2" after a score and Sharpe dropped it. I remember him laughing as if it wasn't a big deal. I am sure he regrets that remark to this day.

Yep, when it was 12-0 I had a bad feeling.

I also had a bad feeling after Holiday's punt return. Something told me it was going to be a bizarre game.

ZONA
01-16-2013, 12:29 PM
I saw a DP article that said when Fox laid down and played for OT, it sent a message to the team that he was not confident and it rubbed off on the players. I sorta felt like this right when it happened. I felt being passive and not taking a chance and playing to win the game showed the exact opposite, that we were playing it safe and trying not to lose. I think that clearly carried over to the players. I see it all the time in basketball. A team is down and they are playing like crap and then the game approaches the final few minutes and they start playing with a sense of urgency because they are trying to win the game. Positive attitude is everything.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-16-2013, 12:57 PM
Dude that sucks. If I were you I'm not sure I'd ever go to a game ever again. Ever. :)

Yes, they should ban me. But I wear them like scars. Like you know how rappers show off their gun wounds, but at the time they are in agony? Same thing.

Rabb
01-16-2013, 01:51 PM
I always wished I could forget about 96', just not by replacing it with something worse.

Man, this one is going to sting for a long, long time.

broncocalijohn
01-16-2013, 01:56 PM
I always wished I could forget about 96', just not by replacing it with something worse.

Man, this one is going to sting for a long, long time.

Not if we repeat 97 and 98. Football Gods testing our endurance. I know there is Football Gods because he has the Chiefs and Raiders suffering for so long.

Rabb
01-16-2013, 02:17 PM
Not if we repeat 97 and 98. Football Gods testing our endurance. I know there is Football Gods because he has the Chiefs and Raiders suffering for so long.

Hilarious!

very true

gunns
01-16-2013, 02:37 PM
Thing that pisses me off most about this is that he still comes out and says "I'd do it 10 out of 10 times"

Why pop a squat on PFM in hurry up mode and let it all ride on a coin flip? It's senseless.

No matter what he has said or anyone else, that was the stupidest decision of the whole game.

That second article is what has kept me upbeat. It's destiny.

Cito Pelon
01-16-2013, 03:53 PM
I saw a DP article that said when Fox laid down and played for OT, it sent a message to the team that he was not confident and it rubbed off on the players. I sorta felt like this right when it happened. I felt being passive and not taking a chance and playing to win the game showed the exact opposite, that we were playing it safe and trying not to lose. I think that clearly carried over to the players. I see it all the time in basketball. A team is down and they are playing like crap and then the game approaches the final few minutes and they start playing with a sense of urgency because they are trying to win the game. Positive attitude is everything.

Been the talk of the town, bud. Quotes like "Played right into the Raven's hands", "Exactly what the Raven's wanted", "Gave a beaten team life" seem to be popping up quite a bit here there and everywhere.

Not just the end of regulation decision, but the plays prior to it. Those were the important ones to keep pressure on the Ravens D. Denver just scored a go-ahead TD with 7:11 left, and wore out the Ravens D. Keep the pressure on, why not? Bring out the situational plays and keep the pressure on a worn out Ravens D.

Took the ball away from the Ravens O with 3:12 left to go at the Denver 31. Score again and end it. Instead they ran up the gut 5 consecutive times, and gave the Ravens a last gasp that they took advantage of.

If the Denver O was at the 45 or so, maybe do that 5 consecutive runs, but they were at their own 31 with 3:12 left in regulation. Get a couple of 8-9 yd passing plays there, get into field goal range, then go into run-the-clock mode and still get the FG.

go_broncos
01-16-2013, 04:05 PM
What an idiot Fox is..So many chances to put the game away..he plays scared.
At this age..i don't think he will change his philosophy.

This season is worse than Shanny regular season choking and Mcd's.

Almost 4 days over.still can't forget the way we choked.
Hopefully..with time..i can forget 2012 season.

Old Dude
01-16-2013, 04:24 PM
The elephant in the room may have been Fox knew Manning was physically limited throwing downfield, limited throwing with velocity downfield.

And if you're gonna try to move the ball 50 yds in two/three plays Manning would have had to hit some 20 yd throws with mustard on them. Did Manning hit an out pattern all day?

I don't think he even tried.

One possibility is that there was something wrong with his arm (or his grip in the cold) and some people have speculated about that.

Another is that our pass-blocking just wasn't good enough to allow the time for downfield throws. We had some big problems, especially in the interior, and after Moreno went out, we lost any decent RB blitz protection.

Or a combination of the above.

Cito Pelon
01-16-2013, 05:16 PM
I don't think he even tried.

One possibility is that there was something wrong with his arm (or his grip in the cold) and some people have speculated about that.

Another is that our pass-blocking just wasn't good enough to allow the time for downfield throws. We had some big problems, especially in the interior, and after Moreno went out, we lost any decent RB blitz protection.

Or a combination of the above.

I'm thinking maybe a combination of the above, but they don't want to say it publically, that would be throwing some guys under the bus, and they don't do that.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-16-2013, 05:38 PM
What an idiot Fox is..So many chances to put the game away..he plays scared.
At this age..i don't think he will change his philosophy.

This season is worse than Shanny regular season choking and Mcd's.

Almost 4 days over.still can't forget the way we choked.
Hopefully..with time..i can forget 2012 season.

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Vine
01-16-2013, 07:47 PM
Thing that pisses me off most about this is that he still comes out and says "I'd do it 10 out of 10 times"

Why pop a squat on PFM in hurry up mode and let it all ride on a coin flip? It's senseless.

I started a thread a couple days ago criticizing Elway for publicly backing Fox. It is sensible to think that a GM will NEVER criticize their coach in public, and in fact, Elway probably had a nice chat with John Fox regarding some of the decisions he made on the field. I might actually believe that Elway had some words with Fox behind closed doors IF Fox was not so damn stubborn and arrogant saying he would make the same decision 10 out of 10 times.

Drunken.Broncoholic
01-16-2013, 08:06 PM
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Drunken.Broncoholic
01-16-2013, 08:09 PM
I started a thread a couple days ago criticizing Elway for publicly backing Fox. It is sensible to think that a GM will NEVER criticize their coach in public, and in fact, Elway probably had a nice chat with John Fox regarding some of the decisions he made on the field. I might actually believe that Elway had some words with Fox behind closed doors IF Fox was not so damn stubborn and arrogant saying he would make the same decision 10 out of 10 times.

Manning and Elway were reading from the same script. No way they throw fox under the bus in the media/public eye. But I have to believe they would do neither decisions. Especially kneeling.

nyuk nyuk
01-16-2013, 08:10 PM
Who knows, but I was very unhappy with this decision. Elway wouldn't have liked it as a player. I can't imagine him not wanting to do passes down the sidelines and a quick bob out of bounds.

Good article and it sheds light on the numbers, that's for sure. After all, the whole game plan has been one criticized as being not to win but to not lose, which is... What we saw with Tebow. :yayaya:

nyuk nyuk
01-16-2013, 08:11 PM
Manning and Elway were reading from the same script. No way they throw fox under the bus in the media/public eye. But I have to believe they would do neither decisions. Especially kneeling.

We'll probably never know what was said behind closed doors. I find it atrocious.

Drunken.Broncoholic
01-16-2013, 08:22 PM
We'll probably never know what was said behind closed doors. I find it atrocious.

Atrocious is the word. We'll never know what was said and we'll never know what would've happened had they made the effort in the game