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View Full Version : Nate Silver's Prediction is In....


B-Large
01-11-2013, 08:22 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/11/nate-silver-super-bowl-prediction_n_2451994.html


This guy is a lock on Politics and Baseball, hopefully he is wrong about the SB this year.... I hope Houston's D beats the everloving piss out of Tom Brady so Von can finsih him off, Mountain Time....

spdirty
01-11-2013, 09:18 AM
That Super Bowl matchup would be stupid enough and depressing enough to get me to go to one of those dumbass Super Bowl parties.

Mr.Meanie
01-11-2013, 09:25 AM
Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

Greatspirits
01-11-2013, 09:30 AM
I wouldn't be surprised at all if that happened, really I'm just taking it one game at a time. We need to just get by Baltimore and go from there.

DENVERDUI55
01-11-2013, 09:31 AM
Why even play the games now? Just another prediction.

B-Large
01-11-2013, 09:33 AM
Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

that's kind of what I was thinking, alot of moving parts.... but it would be very interesting to hear from Nate of one of his other geeks what analystics and trends actually do show repeatability and measure success...

Silver, during the elelction made a footbal comparison I thought was eye opening. At the time, Obama had a 85% chance of winning the elelction, and Nate compared it to an NFL team having a lead of three point, two minutes to go and you are on offense starting at your 30 yard line... that siuation in the NFL turns out a win 85% of the time... that's pretty cool.

Alot of team are begininng to build a Analytics dept for scouting and drafting... there is a belief Moneyball can be replicated in the NFL.. I don't know if it can, but I love Stats and these breakdowns...

TheReverend
01-11-2013, 09:36 AM
Certainly possible

Bronco Boy
01-11-2013, 10:04 AM
It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 10:09 AM
Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen.

But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

Beej
01-11-2013, 10:17 AM
Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 10:19 AM
Silver says, "balance is the key" to the Seahawks beating the Falcons or 49ers; I wonder why he doesn't apply that to the Patriots/Broncos matchup? We are way more balanced than New England.

Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 10:20 AM
reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

Kaylore
01-11-2013, 10:21 AM
Yeah, i dont think this is really a huge limb, but obviously there are more variables that go into a football game than a political vote. You can't predict drop passes, fumbles, tipped picks, and so on and so forth. The political equivilant would be like 5,000 liberals suddenly switching their vote 5 days before the election. Doesnt happen.

But some statistician even said the broncos had a 75 percent chance of winning this weekend. If you told me i had a 25 percent chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, id be pretty damn excited.

Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

Kaylore
01-11-2013, 10:22 AM
reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

And this too...

Bronco Boy
01-11-2013, 10:28 AM
reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

FoxNews already has it's readers convinced that the Cowboys won this year's Super Bowl.

Bronco X
01-11-2013, 10:44 AM
Silver nailed the election because polling data is designed to and provides a fairly accurate representation of potential election results. There's no such comparable data for sports. If Silver makes an election prediction, you listen. That doesn't mean he can predict everything. Still, wish his prediction was different.

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 10:46 AM
FoxNews already has it's readers convinced that the Cowboys won this year's Super Bowl.

really? I guess I'd care if I watched Fox. But thanks for informing me. I love it how librals know more about Fox than independents like me. The huffpost is a libral rag for tards.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 10:53 AM
really? I guess I'd care if I watched Fox. But thanks for informing me. I love it how librals know more about Fox than independents like me. The huffpost is a libral rag for tards.

We took a perfectly nice thread about winning probabilities and turned it into a policial fight. Well done.

winstoncup bronco
01-11-2013, 10:55 AM
Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

I agree.

Anything can happen in the plaoffs. All it takes is one bad day. The Giants won two Super Bowls going against home playoff teams that thought they would handle them easily.

We should win this game, but am I 100% confident we will? No flippin way.

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 11:08 AM
We took a perfectly nice thread about winning probabilities and turned it into a policial fight. Well done.

no we didn't. I stated some facts and you pulled up your skirt and cried.

DenverDynamite
01-11-2013, 11:09 AM
I love Nate Silver, but he's a baseball guy.

Kaylore
01-11-2013, 11:10 AM
I'm sorry, but isn't Huffington Post part of AOL? Objectively speaking isn't that kind of a sign of it sucking? It's like if drudge report went to myspace....

Mogulseeker
01-11-2013, 11:28 AM
Football is quite a bit more unpredictable than baseball and politics. Since it's a team sport, no matter how talented and well coached your team is one weak link or boneheaded play can completely change the game. For example, Flacco's pick 6 on the goal line by Harris isn't something that can be accounted for by statistics or past history, it was a bit of a fluke, and changed the game from probably 10-7 to a 17-0 game heading into halftime. That effected the entire game and changed both sides gameplans in the 2nd half (playing into ours, obviously).

I love me some Nate Silver, I just don't buy it.

I hope you're right....

Silver picked every election correctly in 2012 except North Dakota.

Rock Chalk
01-11-2013, 11:40 AM
It's not really his prediction, just what the Football Outsiders metrics say the best teams are in each conference.

Except Football Outsiders has the Broncos as #2 behind Seattle

Rock Chalk
01-11-2013, 11:44 AM
Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

No, its not even the odds.

Whatever Silver did, he went out on a limb picking New England.

the odds favor Denver.

Football Outsiders favors Denver (in the AFC)

And while Silver has been right in politics and baseball, he is a far cry from knowing what football outsiders does and even football outsiders doesn't have a good track record of predicting football games.

In fact, football is the most unpredictable of all sports (NFL that is). In the NBA and College hoops there are literally dozens of really fantastic metrics that are great predictors. IN baseball they can basically just stop playing because the predictors in them are extremely refined.

But football, the best model is DVOA from football outsiders and they are wrong far more often than they are right.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 11:53 AM
no we didn't. I stated some facts and you pulled up your skirt and cried.

What were your facts exactly? Calling it a liberal turd or something?

Nice, a-hole.

Look! I can state facts too!

Agamemnon
01-11-2013, 11:55 AM
Sure, but is it outlandish to think NE could come here and beat us? Of course not. Should that game occur though, methinks it'll be EPIC.

I think it's completely outlandish to predict they will beat the Broncos in Denver. It's certainly possible, but the #1 thing they had going against us before (the hurry-up no-huddle) won't work in Denver, so predicting them to win is silly. Whatever numbers Silver's model is using seem to not be taking that factor into account.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 11:55 AM
I'm sorry, but isn't Huffington Post part of AOL? Objectively speaking isn't that kind of a sign of it sucking? It's like if drudge report went to myspace....

The National Inquirer might be more appro :)

Who cares where the money comes from anyway

ZONA
01-11-2013, 11:57 AM
no we didn't. I stated some facts and you pulled up your skirt and cried.

You're the first one here who started with the political BS. You said reading the Huffpost was essentially a waste of time and your basis for this is because it's a liberal leaning website.

This is a time for Bronco fans to focus on our team so take your political agenda to the other forum. Thank you.

ChampJesusBailey
01-11-2013, 12:01 PM
Well he loses all credibility with me because he's on First Take.

Biff Tannen could be on that set with a copy of Gray's Sports Almanac sticking out of his back pocket and I would still not believe a word he's saying while Skip and Steve are sitting next to him, radiating their auditory poison.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 12:08 PM
Well he loses all credibility with me because he's on First Take.

Biff Tannen could be on that set with a copy of Gray's Sports Almanac sticking out of his back pocket and I would still not believe a word he's saying while Skip and Steve are sitting next to him, radiating their auditory poison.

Rep for Biff Tannen ref

Kaylore
01-11-2013, 12:14 PM
Well he loses all credibility with me because he's on First Take.

Biff Tannen could be on that set with a copy of Gray's Sports Almanac sticking out of his back pocket and I would still not believe a word he's saying while Skip and Steve are sitting next to him, radiating their auditory poison.

So, so awesome.

B-Large
01-11-2013, 12:50 PM
reading the huffpost is your first mistake.

My friend sends me article from the Huff when she think it migth be interesting, 99% of the time she is dead wrong. I never actually read the articles, I just scroll down to the comments.... they are usually very entertaining....

Huffington Post does not hold a stick to MSNBC as the worst new station ever... its not really even news, just garbage.

Houshyamama
01-11-2013, 01:03 PM
You guys are taking this way too seriously. It's a prediction, not a ****ing prophecy. Silver is playing the odds, not looking into a crystal ball.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 01:13 PM
My friend sends me article from the Huff when she think it migth be interesting, 99% of the time she is dead wrong. I never actually read the articles, I just scroll down to the comments.... they are usually very entertaining....

Huffington Post does not hold a stick to MSNBC as the worst new station ever... its not really even news, just garbage.

I'm biting....my guess is you never watch MSNBC, which, by the way, still employs a conservative to do their morning show.

You don't like it because they don't agree with your thoughts. GOD FORBID! Doesn't mean its "garbage." I'm a regular watcher of shows like Rachel Maddow and while she's obviously a liberal and fights the liberal cause, she's hardly some shill for the democratic party. She's constantly taking the president and democrats to task, and did so last night for the first 40 minutes of her show on the subject of drone use and John Brennan as thehead of the CIA. And she also discussed the infighting between pro-gun groups and the reason they are having trouble getting organized. It was thoughtful, intelligent, and forces you to look at the current gun violence conversation from a different angle (by the way, she took plenty of democrats to task on this issue too).

I dont know why i bothered writing all that, youll just call me a liberal ahole, bring up one moment where she might have gotten too passionate, or whatever, but just because she doesnt AGREE with you, doesn't mean she's an idiot or that its garbage.

Bacchus
01-11-2013, 01:18 PM
I don't think I could go on living if the Pats come to Denver and win....... nope I think that would be it for me.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 01:20 PM
I don't think I could go on living if the Pats come to Denver and win....... nope I think that would be it for me.

As much as I'd hate that, at least I don't know a single Pats fan to hear it from.

Hulamau
01-11-2013, 01:21 PM
Exactly. Games are determined by moments, not the minds of individuals and their feelings about a topic or their well-being.

And as someone else pointed out, the article isn't even a prediction. It's the odds.

Absolutely, this odds pick isn't even close to the numbers based prediction that made his pick in the Presidential race so deadly accurate all year long.

Sure it could happen, as both the Hawks and NE are playing well, but way too many variables so be a Nate Silver level prediction.

Greatspirits
01-11-2013, 01:24 PM
My friend sends me article from the Huff when she think it migth be interesting, 99% of the time she is dead wrong. I never actually read the articles, I just scroll down to the comments.... they are usually very entertaining....

Huffington Post does not hold a stick to MSNBC as the worst new station ever... its not really even news, just garbage.

Fox News is garbage, it shouldn't even be in the news classification. That call by Karl "POS" Rove was a doosie!!

BroncsRule
01-11-2013, 01:43 PM
Not surprised that Nate Silver likes Football Outsiders. But as others have pointed out, DVOA has Denver as the (narrow) odds favorite in the AFC.. So Nate must be a Pats fan - making his pick with his heart. And because his model proved to be so freakin' on in the '12 election, people are paying attention to his pick for 5 minutes.

Nothing wrong with that.

Requiem
01-11-2013, 01:55 PM
Damn you Nate Silvers, damn youse!

R8R H8R
01-11-2013, 02:03 PM
I would be more impressed if he had a prediction prior to:

The 2007 playoffs that the Giants would not only go to the SB, but upset the heavily favored Patriots.

The very next year predict that the underdog Cardinals would sweep thru the NFC on the road and make a game of it with the Steelers.

And again, prior to the playoffs, predict that the Giants would repeat thier 2007 run and again, upset the favorite Pats.

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 02:09 PM
What were your facts exactly? Calling it a liberal turd or something?

Nice, a-hole.

Look! I can state facts too!

lulz

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 02:10 PM
You're the first one here who started with the political BS. You said reading the Huffpost was essentially a waste of time and your basis for this is because it's a liberal leaning website.

This is a time for Bronco fans to focus on our team so take your political agenda to the other forum. Thank you.

You're welcome not to respond to my post. If you hadn't responded then we wouldn't be side tracking this thread. Nice going a-hole! :kiss:

B-Large
01-11-2013, 02:13 PM
I'm biting....my guess is you never watch MSNBC, which, by the way, still employs a conservative to do their morning show.

You don't like it because they don't agree with your thoughts. GOD FORBID! Doesn't mean its "garbage." I'm a regular watcher of shows like Rachel Maddow and while she's obviously a liberal and fights the liberal cause, she's hardly some shill for the democratic party. She's constantly taking the president and democrats to task, and did so last night for the first 40 minutes of her show on the subject of drone use and John Brennan as thehead of the CIA. And she also discussed the infighting between pro-gun groups and the reason they are having trouble getting organized. It was thoughtful, intelligent, and forces you to look at the current gun violence conversation from a different angle (by the way, she took plenty of democrats to task on this issue too).

I dont know why i bothered writing all that, youll just call me a liberal ahole, bring up one moment where she might have gotten too passionate, or whatever, but just because she doesnt AGREE with you, doesn't mean she's an idiot or that its garbage.

I watch it at the gym everyday because it is what is one. Hardball is bad, the Sharpton show is egregiously a shill for the Left, and there is another show right before those two that is just insufferable. MSNBC is the Media Conglomerate for the Far Left of Democratic Party... Its worse than Fox News, but then again that is kind of comparing the smell of Puke to Diahrrea to see which smells worse. The only things that tops these two is Salon Magazine.. yikes

I have never see Rachael Maddow's show, I have seen her on other programs like Meet the Press, she's a bright lady. But overall, from what I have seen MSNBC is not good.

BTW, I am a registred Democrat, former Registred Republican. Make of that what you will I guess....

SonOfLe-loLang
01-11-2013, 02:41 PM
I watch it at the gym everyday because it is what is one. Hardball is bad, the Sharpton show is egregiously a shill for the Left, and there is another show right before those two that is just insufferable. MSNBC is the Media Conglomerate for the Far Left of Democratic Party... Its worse than Fox News, but then again that is kind of comparing the smell of Puke to Diahrrea to see which smells worse. The only things that tops these two is Salon Magazine.. yikes

I have never see Rachael Maddow's show, I have seen her on other programs like Meet the Press, she's a bright lady. But overall, from what I have seen MSNBC is not good.

BTW, I am a registred Democrat, former Registred Republican. Make of that what you will I guess....

I'll agree Sharpton's ****, I don't mind Hardball so much (Chris Matthews gets on my nerves at times, but he's not dumb), but worse than FOX news? Now, while i don't watch ALL of FOX news's shows, ive seen enough to know that sometimes they live in a different world. This is the network that brought you "Terrorist Fist Bump." Obviously, MSNBC's evening programing caters to the left, no doubt, i wouldnt turn on MSNBC for unbiased programming, but at least Rachel is smart and measured on her show.

And, as I said, MSNBC airs a conservative 3 hours every single morning.

Kaylore
01-11-2013, 03:06 PM
Fox news is better on account of their hot anchors alone.

Rulon Velvet Jones
01-11-2013, 03:49 PM
I love Nate Silver but, like others have said, there are so many intricacies (weather, road v. home, travel, time of day) in a game of football that it's hard to make a prediction. Hell, someone could pull a hammy in practice between now and then and throw the entire system out of whack.

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 04:17 PM
Fox news is better on account of their hot anchors alone.

cha-ching! me likey.

Greatspirits
01-11-2013, 04:28 PM
Fox news is better on account of their hot anchors alone.

The only hot one is Megan Kelly, all the others are just a bunch of skanks!

Bacchus
01-11-2013, 04:31 PM
I watch it at the gym everyday because it is what is one. Hardball is bad, the Sharpton show is egregiously a shill for the Left, and there is another show right before those two that is just insufferable. MSNBC is the Media Conglomerate for the Far Left of Democratic Party... Its worse than Fox News, but then again that is kind of comparing the smell of Puke to Diahrrea to see which smells worse. The only things that tops these two is Salon Magazine.. yikes

I have never see Rachael Maddow's show, I have seen her on other programs like Meet the Press, she's a bright lady. But overall, from what I have seen MSNBC is not good.

BTW, I am a registred Democrat, former Registred Republican. Make of that what you will I guess....

Rachel Maddow is terrific. If you are a democrat you should give her show another try. She is pretty smart and she talks to her audience like they are smart so I imagine some people find it hard to follow.

peacepipe
01-11-2013, 05:13 PM
I watch it at the gym everyday because it is what is one. Hardball is bad, the Sharpton show is egregiously a shill for the Left, and there is another show right before those two that is just insufferable. MSNBC is the Media Conglomerate for the Far Left of Democratic Party... Its worse than Fox News, but then again that is kind of comparing the smell of Puke to Diahrrea to see which smells worse. The only things that tops these two is Salon Magazine.. yikes

I have never see Rachael Maddow's show, I have seen her on other programs like Meet the Press, she's a bright lady. But overall, from what I have seen MSNBC is not good.

BTW, I am a registred Democrat, former Registred Republican. Make of that what you will I guess....

Zel miller claimed he was a democrat as well.
It's quite the false equivalency to compare MSNBC & Fox news.

ZONA
01-11-2013, 06:15 PM
Well chalk this up to a thread took over by people trying to throw their political view point into every ****ing thing there is. Some of you guys just can't behave even for a ****ing minute. Gotta put your own little political twist on everything dontcha.


News flash. Broncos have a playoff game in less then 24 hours. Take your political BS to the right place and let's talk some ****in Broncos football.

Requiem
01-11-2013, 06:17 PM
Amen, Zona.

Some people can't keep their mouths shut like a ho s'posta.

Bronco X
01-11-2013, 06:33 PM
Back on topic: I don't think putting stock in Silver's football prediction does justice to his excellent methodology for predicting the election results. He's not a soothsayer. He nailed the election by analyzing polling data, which in and of itself is designed and intended to be a predictor of election results. There is no such data that exists for predicting the outcome of football games, certainly not to the degree of accuracy that polling data reflects on election results.

Rock Chalk
01-11-2013, 06:49 PM
I'll agree Sharpton's ****, I don't mind Hardball so much (Chris Matthews gets on my nerves at times, but he's not dumb), but worse than FOX news? Now, while i don't watch ALL of FOX news's shows, ive seen enough to know that sometimes they live in a different world. This is the network that brought you "Terrorist Fist Bump." Obviously, MSNBC's evening programing caters to the left, no doubt, i wouldnt turn on MSNBC for unbiased programming, but at least Rachel is smart and measured on her show.

And, as I said, MSNBC airs a conservative 3 hours every single morning.

ABSO****INGLUTELY MSNBC is worse than Fox News.

Jesus ****ing Christ, only a left win douche ****ing bag would say otherwise.

Bronco X
01-11-2013, 06:54 PM
Take the asinine political dogma someplace else please.

ZONA
01-11-2013, 06:59 PM
ABSO****INGLUTELY MSNBC is worse than Fox News.

Jesus ****ing Christ, only a left win douche ****ing bag would say otherwise.

There you go, can't let anything go for a ****in second can you. IMO, these kinds of posts show what some members here care more about. Their opinion of political news channels or Broncos football. Which is it?

It's not preseason. It's not regular season. It's playoff football. You guys don't seem to be in the moment AT ALL.

Requiem
01-11-2013, 07:45 PM
It's Rock Chalk. 36 going on 13. Just doing his usual, pass-aggressive full-on-retard posting.

Tombstone RJ
01-11-2013, 07:49 PM
the lulz is strong in this thread

ColoradoDarin
01-11-2013, 07:58 PM
LOL at people seeing "Nate Silver" in the title and thinking there wouldn't be any political posts. I wonder who Nancy Pelosi picks to win it all?

Bronco X
01-11-2013, 08:11 PM
Silver is a numbers genius-geek, nothing more. There's a certain class of fool who thinks he's partisan because he predicted the elections a certain way (exactly how they turned out, incidentally), and even when he turned out to be right they didn't reassess. This doesn't need to be political just because Silver is mentioned.

ColoradoDarin
01-11-2013, 08:24 PM
Silver is a numbers genius-geek, nothing more. There's a certain class of fool who thinks he's partisan because he predicted the elections a certain way (exactly how they turned out, incidentally), and even when he turned out to be right they didn't reassess. This doesn't need to be political just because Silver is mentioned.

First day on the Internets?

B-Large
01-12-2013, 09:19 AM
I'll agree Sharpton's ****, I don't mind Hardball so much (Chris Matthews gets on my nerves at times, but he's not dumb), but worse than FOX news? Now, while i don't watch ALL of FOX news's shows, ive seen enough to know that sometimes they live in a different world. This is the network that brought you "Terrorist Fist Bump." Obviously, MSNBC's evening programing caters to the left, no doubt, i wouldnt turn on MSNBC for unbiased programming, but at least Rachel is smart and measured on her show.

And, as I said, MSNBC airs a conservative 3 hours every single morning.

I've thought about a little more, Fox is garbage too.... Outside of Sheppard Smith, it's all terrible.... Lol

winstoncup bronco
01-12-2013, 09:22 AM
This thread needs more political bull****.

lostknight
01-12-2013, 07:00 PM
Silver doesn't know what he is talking about. He is deluded - just like the quants that everything is a statistical model, that can be determined.

RINGLEADER
01-12-2013, 07:21 PM
Silver doesn't know what he is talking about. He is deluded - just like the quants that everything is a statistical model, that can be determined.

Silver is so far 0-1 in the playoffs.

ColoradoDarin
01-21-2013, 12:42 PM
Pats-Seahawks... nailed it Nate!

Bronco Bob
01-21-2013, 01:40 PM
Pats-Seahawks... nailed it Nate!

Maybe he should stick to predicting presidential elections.

SpringStein
01-21-2013, 01:46 PM
Give him credit - he did nail one West Coast team and one on the eastern seaboard!

spdirty
01-21-2013, 02:27 PM
Man if I could go back in time 2 weeks knowing what I know now....coulda made a boatload of money on Baltimore.