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View Full Version : Why Atlanta, Seattle, Denver, Houston or New England will go to the SB.


Kaylore
01-09-2013, 09:59 AM
Listening to Sandy Clough on the fan. He was pointing out how the Ravens won't make the SB because they don't have a top ten offense and defense. Since the merger 1 team, the 2007 Giants, has won the SB without a top ten offense and defense. Even the 2000 Ravens offense qalified (they were ranked 10th).

I decided to look at who qualifies under those criteria of the remaining playoff teams.

Out of the NFC, only the Falcons have both. 7th in scoring offense, 5th in scoring defense, which would suggest they would at least go. If they do not go, then whoever the AFC sends will probably win the SB by this logic.

EDIT Fear Lanier pointed out I forgot about Seattle who is 9th in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. I am a fool!

The Patriots are 1st in scoring offense, Houston is 8th.

Interestingly, both are tied for 10th - therefore qualifying both, in scoring defense at 10th. If one was one point point better, history would eliminate that one from the SB.

The Broncos are ranked 2nd in scoring offense and 4th in scoring defense.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 10:14 AM
We also have the dreaded 13-3 record too. We'll see if stats hold true or not.

mwill07
01-09-2013, 10:18 AM
that's a touch criteria though. While it holds true, I think that's more of a piece of trivia than a meaningful stat.

The Patriots were a play here and a play there away from a SB championship last year, despite having the 15th ranked scoring defense and 31st ranked yard defense. The Steelers were within a TD in 2010, despite an offense ranked 12th and 14th. The Cardinals had a 4th quarter lead in 2008 with a defense ranked 28th and 19th.

I guess you could say that if the 2011 Patriot D, the 2010 Steeler O, or the 2008 Cardinal defense were better they would have won, but they were all soo close to winning anyways.

TonyR
01-09-2013, 10:40 AM
that's a touch criteria though...

Agree, it's really as much about who's "hot" and playing well as anything else. Giants weren't much more than above average last season but got hot at the right time. Houston, meanwhile, was the best team in the league for a good part of this season but have just faded for some reason. Seems to me the team to keep an eye on this year is Green Bay. Kind of quietly went 11-5 with a few eyebrow raising losses and a lot of injuries. But they're heating up and getting healthy now, and having perhaps the best QB in the league certainly doesn't hurt. (now watch them go and lose Sunday...)

Kaylore
01-09-2013, 10:46 AM
I don't think GB has the offensive line to make it to the SB.

BroncoBeavis
01-09-2013, 10:48 AM
that's a touch criteria though. While it holds true, I think that's more of a piece of trivia than a meaningful stat.

The Patriots were a play here and a play there away from a SB championship last year, despite having the 15th ranked scoring defense and 31st ranked yard defense. The Steelers were within a TD in 2010, despite an offense ranked 12th and 14th. The Cardinals had a 4th quarter lead in 2008 with a defense ranked 28th and 19th.

I guess you could say that if the 2011 Patriot D, the 2010 Steeler O, or the 2008 Cardinal defense were better they would have won, but they were all soo close to winning anyways.

Yeah. And it wasn't the Pats D that lost the Super Bowl last year. It was their top ranked O not getting it done.

Atlanta being the only NFC team listed invalidates this theory to me. I think they're the least likely to make it through of the 4.

SportinOne
01-09-2013, 10:52 AM
Can you really draw any solid conclusions from NFL statistics? Small samples abound.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 10:53 AM
Yeah. And it wasn't the Pats D that lost the Super Bowl last year. It was their top ranked O not getting it done.

Atlanta being the only NFC team listed invalidates this theory to me. I think they're the least likely to make it through of the 4.

The key is to pressure Brady if you don't your in for a long day.

TonyR
01-09-2013, 10:59 AM
I don't think GB has the offensive line to make it to the SB.

Wow, just looked and see Rodgers went down a league high 51 times. I didn't realize it was that bad. That said, still won't surprise me if they end up playing in the Superdome Feb 3.

Kaylore
01-09-2013, 11:05 AM
Wow, just looked and see Rodgers went down a league high 51 times. I didn't realize it was that bad. That said, still won't surprise me if they end up playing in the Superdome Feb 3.

They have to go through the Niners. If they get through the Niners and got to Atlanta with an injured John Abraham, they could. I still think it's unlikely. I would love to play them in the SB. I think we match up VERY well against GB.

FearLanier
01-09-2013, 11:11 AM
What about Seattle?

They are 9th in PPG on offense with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 3rd in total yards on defense and 1st in point allowed at 15.3 PPG.

I think they are the most balanced team in the NFC.

TonyR
01-09-2013, 11:16 AM
They have to go through the Niners.

Yeah, SF's defense should give them a game. I just wonder if Kaepernick is good enough to get it done. I guess we're gonna find out. I may be guilty of overvaluing GB because they looked so good against that mediocre Minnesota team and that awful Joe Webb.

BroncoBeavis
01-09-2013, 11:18 AM
The key is to pressure Brady if you don't your in for a long day.

I agree, totally. But the premise here is that you need to be top 10 on both sides of the ball to win a title. But what lost it for the Pats last year was their top shelf offense only scoring 17 points. Their weaker defense didn't cost them that game.

Kaylore
01-09-2013, 11:19 AM
Can you really draw any solid conclusions from NFL statistics? Small samples abound.

42 years isn't a small sample.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 11:21 AM
I expect two top seeds to get knocked off this weedend.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 11:25 AM
I agree, totally. But the premise here is that you need to be top 10 on both sides of the ball to win a title. But what lost it for the Pats last year was their top shelf offense only scoring 17 points. Their weaker defense didn't cost them that game.

agree

Kaylore
01-09-2013, 11:27 AM
What about Seattle?

They are 9th in PPG on offense with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 3rd in total yards on defense and 1st in point allowed at 15.3 PPG.

I think they are the most balanced team in the NFC.

Holy crap! I missed Seattle! They are in the top ten in both.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 11:33 AM
What about Seattle?

They are 9th in PPG on offense with the 3rd ranked rushing offense and 3rd in total yards on defense and 1st in point allowed at 15.3 PPG.

I think they are the most balanced team in the NFC.


I expect them to beat Atlanta

TonyR
01-09-2013, 11:52 AM
I agree, totally. But the premise here is that you need to be top 10 on both sides of the ball to win a title. But what lost it for the Pats last year was their top shelf offense only scoring 17 points. Their weaker defense didn't cost them that game.

I don't disagree. But note that the NE offense "underperformed" because the Giants defense was among the best teams in the league at pressuring and sacking the QB. In other words, the perfect defense to deploy against Tom Brady.

BroncoBeavis
01-09-2013, 12:01 PM
I don't disagree. But note that the NE offense "underperformed" because the Giants defense was among the best teams in the league at pressuring and sacking the QB. In other words, the perfect defense to deploy against Tom Brady.

Yeah, but at the same time the 'Top 10' Giants O was held to 21 points by the non-top 10 Pats D that was (at least by this theory) the reason the Pats couldn't win.

Obviously it doesn't hurt to be in the top 10 in both. But it seems pretty arbitrary. The Pats and Texans are golden this year because their D allows 20.7 points per game, but the Pack is doomed because they allow 21.

I think I'll just stick to watching the games. :)

Kaylore
01-09-2013, 12:09 PM
I expect them to beat Atlanta

That wouldn't surprise me. And I can't imagine the wrath Ryan would endure if that happened. The city would demand they re-sign Michael Vick.

ludo21
01-09-2013, 12:49 PM
Atlanta is soooo good at home, boy that would be disappointing for that fan base... I find myself rooting against Seattle.

Not sure why, I just hate to see Pete Carrol succeed, lol

errand
01-09-2013, 01:10 PM
I expect two top seeds to get knocked off this weedend.

So you expect the Broncos and Falcons to lose this weekend....wow, OK.

TonyR
01-09-2013, 01:19 PM
So you expect the Broncos and Falcons to lose this weekend....wow, OK.

I think he meant "higher" seeds as opposed to "top" seeds.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 02:23 PM
I think he meant "higher" seeds as opposed to "top" seeds.

Yep that's what I mean't thanks.

In order how I'd rank highest seed upset possibilities this weekend.

1. Seattle over Atl
2. GB over SF
3. Ravens over Den
4. Houston over NE

Kaylore
01-09-2013, 03:15 PM
We also have the dreaded 13-3 record too. We'll see if stats hold true or not.

Why is 13-3 dreaded?

Blart
01-09-2013, 03:19 PM
I firmly believe the Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, or 49ers will go to the Super Bowl

Bronco X
01-09-2013, 03:33 PM
Why is 13-3 dreaded?

The only three home playoff losses in Broncos history came after the team's previous three 13-3 regular seasons.

Bronco Yoda
01-09-2013, 06:17 PM
Both NFC games this week are a toss up IMO. Both should be really competitive games.

TonyR
01-09-2013, 07:19 PM
In order how I'd rank highest seed upset possibilities this weekend.

1. Seattle over Atl
2. GB over SF
3. Ravens over Den
4. Houston over NE

Exactly how I'd rank it.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 09:19 PM
Why is 13-3 dreaded?

I thought no 13-3 team ever reached SB

bowtown
01-09-2013, 09:26 PM
42 years isn't a small sample.

It's smaller than a million.

Bronco X
01-09-2013, 09:54 PM
I thought no 13-3 team ever reached SB

According to this there are seven 13-3 Super Bowl Winners.

http://www.realclearsports.com/charts/regular_season_record_of_super_bowl_winners-154.html

So the Broncos have only their own franchise 13-3 demons to exorcise.

errand
01-09-2013, 10:30 PM
Since the merger 1 team, the 2007 Giants, has won the SB without a top ten offense and defense..

Are they talking yardage?

Tampa Bay was ranked 24th in offense in 2002 won SB vs. Oakland 48-21

Washington was ranked 18th in defense in 1987 won SB vs. Denver 42-10

errand
01-09-2013, 10:37 PM
According to this there are seven 13-3 Super Bowl Winners.

http://www.realclearsports.com/charts/regular_season_record_of_super_bowl_winners-154.html

So the Broncos have only their own franchise 13-3 demons to exorcise.

Teams that were 13-3 in regular season are 7-8 in SB's....

1984 Broncos lost home game in divisional round to Steelers 24-17

1996 Broncos lost home game divisional round to Jaguars 30-27

2005 Broncos lost home game AFCC bout to Steelers 31-17

so yeah we need to exorcise some demons from 13-3 teams of the past....just like the revenge tour of '97.

extralife
01-09-2013, 10:58 PM
I am almost certain the 2001 Patriots were not top 10 in both offense and defense. They may not have been top ten in either.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 11:05 PM
According to this there are seven 13-3 Super Bowl Winners.

http://www.realclearsports.com/charts/regular_season_record_of_super_bowl_winners-154.html

So the Broncos have only their own franchise 13-3 demons to exorcise.

Thanks for looking it up.

NFLBRONCO
01-09-2013, 11:07 PM
Teams that were 13-3 in regular season are 7-8 in SB's....

1984 Broncos lost home game in divisional round to Steelers 24-17

1996 Broncos lost home game divisional round to Jaguars 30-27

2005 Broncos lost home game AFCC bout to Steelers 31-17

so yeah we need to exorcise some demons from 13-3 teams of the past....just like the revenge tour of '97.

Wasn't 84 the year Elway had his hammy wrapped up in that game.

errand
01-09-2013, 11:29 PM
Wasn't 84 the year Elway had his hammy wrapped up in that game.

He was hobbled in 4th qtr iirc.....either groin or hammy.

Kaylore
01-10-2013, 12:40 AM
According to this there are seven 13-3 Super Bowl Winners.

http://www.realclearsports.com/charts/regular_season_record_of_super_bowl_winners-154.html

So the Broncos have only their own franchise 13-3 demons to exorcise.

So it's a Broncos thing.

Kaylore
01-10-2013, 12:44 AM
I am almost certain the 2001 Patriots were not top 10 in both offense and defense. They may not have been top ten in either.

Patriots were sixth in scoring offense and sixth in scoring defense that year.

errand
01-10-2013, 07:47 AM
So it's a Broncos thing.

Well hopefully it's not some kind of curse ......

TonyR
01-10-2013, 07:59 AM
I noticed an interesting thing about the eight remaining teams in the playoffs. They are currently the eight and only eight teams that are in the upper-right quadrant of the Team EPA visualization (on the main page or full viz here.) This means they are the only eight teams to have both an above average defense and offense for the season to date. The Colts, Bengals, Vikings, and Redskins were below average in one category or the other.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/01/remaining-eight-playoff-teams-epa.html

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/teamstatvisualization.php

errand
01-10-2013, 09:08 PM
2002 Buccaneers were 18th in scoring offense and won SB......

ZONA
01-10-2013, 11:14 PM
Listening to Sandy Clough on the fan. He was pointing out how the Ravens won't make the SB because they don't have a top ten offense and defense. Since the merger 1 team, the 2007 Giants, has won the SB without a top ten offense and defense. Even the 2000 Ravens offense qalified (they were ranked 10th).

I decided to look at who qualifies under those criteria of the remaining playoff teams.

Out of the NFC, only the Falcons have both. 7th in scoring offense, 5th in scoring defense, which would suggest they would at least go. If they do not go, then whoever the AFC sends will probably win the SB by this logic.

EDIT Fear Lanier pointed out I forgot about Seattle who is 9th in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. I am a fool!

The Patriots are 1st in scoring offense, Houston is 8th.

Interestingly, both are tied for 10th - therefore qualifying both, in scoring defense at 10th. If one was one point point better, history would eliminate that one from the SB.

The Broncos are ranked 2nd in scoring offense and 4th in scoring defense.


I think that stat refers to total offense and total defense, not just scoring offense and scoring defense.

NUB
01-11-2013, 12:45 AM
Yep that's what I mean't thanks.

In order how I'd rank highest seed upset possibilities this weekend.

1. Seattle over Atl
2. GB over SF
3. Ravens over Den
4. Houston over NE

I'm looking at:

Seattle beats Atlanta.
GB beats SF.
GB beats Seattle.

Denver beats Baltimore
NE beats Houston
Denver beats NE (nailbiter matchup of the entire playoffs)

Denver beats GB soundly in the Superbowl as they matchup terribly.