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Bacchus
01-03-2013, 12:44 AM
In an NFL playoff simulation, the Broncos won the most Super Bowls

By The Denver Post


Betting odds released last week from Las Vegas had the Broncos as 5-2 co-favorites with the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. But the numbers-crunchers at Football Outsiders have a different way to look at Denver’s chances.

After playing out 50,000 NFL playoff simulations, and compiling the data from those virtual scenarios, the site determined that the Broncos have a 26.2 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl — the best percentage among playoff teams. New England is No. 2 at 24.3 percent.


Team Conf app Conf win SB win
DEN .... 71.0% 42.1% 26.2%
NE ......78.1% 40.7% 24.3%
SF ......59.8% 31.4% 14.3%
SEA ....33.0% 19.7% 10.3%

Also, there’s a 13.2 percent chance the Broncos play the San Francisco 49ers (in a rematch of Super Bowl XXIV after the 1989 season), according to Football Outsiders — that’s the highest percentage chance among possible title-game matchups.

And there’s a scant 2.8 percent chance of a Broncos Super Bowl matchup against Mike Shanahan and Washington.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2013/01/02/nfl-playoff-simulation-broncos-chance-win-super-bowl/17902/

Bacchus
01-03-2013, 12:44 AM
I say there is a 85% chance bob busts a nut one one of his Geno Posters.

Mogulseeker
01-03-2013, 12:54 AM
I want SF. NYG next year. WAS the year after. DAL the year after.

Peyton can retire after our 4-year revenge tour, with 4 Lombardi's in hand.

Taco John
01-03-2013, 02:08 AM
I want SF. NYG next year. WAS the year after. DAL the year after.

Peyton can retire after our 4-year revenge tour, with 4 Lombardi's in hand.

Hell yeah...

Armchair Bronco
01-03-2013, 02:48 AM
Broncos vs Seahawks, baby! My dream matchup!

Bacchus
01-03-2013, 06:55 AM
I would love to see Denver and GB. Their O line is horrible. SB MVP could be shared between VONDOOM

Rock Chalk
01-03-2013, 07:17 AM
I want to win the first playoff game.

We'll talk about other fantasies after that happens.

Bacchus
01-03-2013, 07:25 AM
I want to win the first playoff game.

We'll talk about other fantasies after that happens.

Denver does not even have an opponent at this time so all options are still available. When Denver has an opponent for a Divisional round game we can talk about them.

RedskinBronco
01-03-2013, 07:30 AM
That's pretty high, but I'll take it.

Beej
01-03-2013, 08:56 AM
I want SF. NYG next year. WAS the year after. DAL the year after.

Peyton can retire after our 4-year revenge tour, with 4 Lombardi's in hand.

Absolutely, and please beat SF by 46 points.

Gator20134
01-03-2013, 08:57 AM
Denver does not even have an opponent at this time so all options are still available. When Denver has an opponent for a Divisional round game we can talk about them.

It will likely be the Ravens

SouthStndJunkie
01-03-2013, 09:54 AM
I want to win the first playoff game.

We'll talk about other fantasies after that happens.

Word.

maven
01-03-2013, 09:58 AM
I want SF. NYG next year. WAS the year after. DAL the year after.

Peyton can retire after our 4-year revenge tour, with 4 Lombardi's in hand.

this guy knows wtf he's talking about.

Kaylore
01-03-2013, 09:58 AM
It's not that there is a 26% chance we win, it's that if we played it in this computer 1000's of times we would win it 26 % of the time.

In RL the percentage is much higher because we are awesome.

Pick Six
01-03-2013, 10:13 AM
Broncos vs Seahawks, baby! My dream matchup!

Old School AFC West matchup...I like it...^5

Dedhed
01-03-2013, 10:19 AM
I would love to play the Seahawks or the Chargers. I think our defense will eat any of those QBs alive.

Jetmeck
01-03-2013, 10:26 AM
I want SF. NYG next year. WAS the year after. DAL the year after.

Peyton can retire after our 4-year revenge tour, with 4 Lombardi's in hand.


Now thats a plan, like the way you think !

Bronco Boy
01-03-2013, 10:28 AM
I would love to play the Seahawks or the Chargers. I think our defense will eat any of those QBs alive.

I don't believe the Chargers are in the playoffs but I could be wrong.

Beantown Bronco
01-03-2013, 10:29 AM
The Broncos are the Sex Panther cologne of the NFL. 26% of the time, we win all of the time.

crawdad
01-03-2013, 10:43 AM
I want SF. NYG next year. WAS the year after. DAL the year after.

Peyton can retire after our 4-year revenge tour, with 4 Lombardi's in hand.

I am with you on this, my friend! Let's do it!

bombquixote
01-03-2013, 11:10 AM
31956

pricejj
01-03-2013, 11:17 AM
In RL the percentage is much higher because we are awesome.

In RL the odds are 5-2 in Vegas correct?

If my math is right, oddsmakers give the Broncos a 40% chance of winning the Superbowl.

Bacchus
01-03-2013, 12:40 PM
In RL the odds are 5-2 in Vegas correct?

If my math is right, oddsmakers give the Broncos a 40% chance of winning the Superbowl.

Yes, but that is Vegas. They really fake played this game 50,000 times on a computer. How can they be wrong?

Blueflame
01-03-2013, 03:09 PM
Old School AFC West matchup...I like it...^5

Inquiring minds want to know... out of the entire NFL... which team has owned the Seahawks more than any other? That's right.

:Broncos: :gobroncos :bronxrox: :Elway:

AK Broncomaniac
01-04-2013, 12:15 PM
It's not that there is a 26% chance we win, it's that if we played it in this computer 1000's of times we would win it 26 % of the time.

In RL the percentage is much higher because we are awesome.

YES, WE ARE TOTALLY AWESOME! I haven't been this excited about our team in many years. I can't wait to be there SCREAMING MY HEAD OFF when we win, no matter who our first opponent is !!! I have never been to a playoff game before and I am totally psyched!!! :wave:

Taco John
01-04-2013, 12:20 PM
Broncos vs Seahawks, baby! My dream matchup!

You and me both. I've got about two dozen Seahawks buds and meeting/beating them in the Superbowl would be sweet.