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MrPeepers
11-27-2012, 09:50 AM
The Deep End

Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.

If the last six weeks of the 2012 season play out similarly to the first 10, the defensive story of the season could well be two sophomore defensive players: Texans defensive end J.J. Watt and Broncos linebacker Von Miller. Their play has been so outstanding that the question might not be which deserves the Defensive Player of the Year award, but are either worthy of the MVP? I asked Neil Hornsby of ProFootballFocus.com to break down their play to try to answer those questions:

Playing Time: Watt has played 89 percent of Houston's defensive snaps and Miller 90 percent for Denver. Watt has been so dominant that teams have had to start game-planning just to stop him. So the Texans have moved him from his favored position on the left. In 2011 he was on the left 85 percent of his snaps, but it's 74 percent this year, as the Texans have shifted Watt around to counter blocking schemes. Miller has actually spent more time on his preferred left side (72 percent, up from 67 percent last year) because his position and style of play means he is far harder to scheme against. EDGE: Even.

Run Defense: Watt plays the run better than anyone else at his position (including defensive tackles). His 35 defensive stops in run defense (tackles which are defeats for the offense) are four more than anyone in football. In productivity terms that gives Watt a stop on 18 percent of running downs; the next best is Justin Smith at 12 percent. Miller can't match those pure numbers (he's 12th in the same stat against outside linebackers) but that's not his game. His position on the field distorts those figures. It's much fairer to say when he makes a play in run defense, it's usually a big one; the average gain on his 24 tackles in run defense? Minus-1 yard. EDGE: Watt.

Pass Rush: Miller is the most devastating pass rusher at any position in the NFL. There is no one on offense who can consistently match up to him; offensive linemen are not quick enough to counter his acceleration. The 49ers' brilliant outside 'backer, Aldon Smith, has 43 quarterback disruptions this year on 292 pass rushes. Miller has 61 on 297, 41 percent more on nearly the same number of attempts. Watt's base numbers are excellent too (49 quarterback disruptions from 402 rushes). They come a close second in productivity terms to the Bengals' Geno Atkins, who has 40 QB disruptions on 300 pass rush snaps. EDGE: Miller

Coverage: Well, Watt doesn't cover, so this is an odd stat for him (he's dropped in coverage only 14 times), but there has to be a way to count his passes swatted away. He has tipped 13 passes at the line of scrimmage, more than twice as many as the next player. Since 2008, the most we'd had in a full season before this was in 2009, when Johnny Jolly batted down 10. Watt is probably redefining the way in which linemen will be taught to play. Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed. Having said that, he's only dropped in coverage on 92 plays so far. EDGE: Watt.

In Summary: Many players on defense are having great years, but no one is as far ahead of the competition as J.J. Watt and Von Miller. Just as Darrelle Revis did in the early part of 2011, they are redefining what's achievable at their positions. Who's better? Flip a coin. Good thing there are five games left for each, so one can win the award they both now deserve.


Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/11/26/Week-12/index.html#ixzz2DRUUPhnC

Dedhed
11-27-2012, 10:10 AM
Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly.

Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

RhymesayersDU
11-27-2012, 10:14 AM
Glad somebody posted this. It's going to be an interesting debate going down the stretch. Love Von, obviously, but that Watt is a beast too.

ludo21
11-27-2012, 10:19 AM
Miller has been devastating this year. He should DROY but Watt is a beast as well.

Kaylore
11-27-2012, 10:23 AM
Miller has been devastating this year. He should DROY but Watt is a beast as well.

DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

RhymesayersDU
11-27-2012, 10:30 AM
DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

No. That's how good Von is. He wins awards he's not even eligible for.

Mediator12
11-27-2012, 10:31 AM
MVP is reserved for some glorious offensive player usually, but who really fits the bill for that one right now? I would love to see one voted MVP and the other DPOY. It may never happen, but who really deserves the MVP on offense this year. All the usual suspects have been below great this year, and no one is stepping up to claim it like usual.

Conklin
11-27-2012, 10:33 AM
Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly.

Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

watt is 1/2 a sack ahead of miller right now

Kaylore
11-27-2012, 10:37 AM
No. That's how good Von is. He wins awards he's not even eligible for.

He's so much better than the other defensive rookies they give it to him twice.

bronco militia
11-27-2012, 10:52 AM
Miller has more sacks, more QB pressures and more tackles for loss. Also Von has been trending up in recent weeks, and Watt has been trending the other way. It's going to be close, but if it ended today I think Von would win DPOY convincingly.

Whoever has the strongest finish to the year is going to run bring home the award.

watt got 3 more sacks on thanksgiving. how is he trending the other way?

chickennob2
11-27-2012, 11:26 AM
Peter King is such a lazy POS.

Pass coverage is currently seen as a weakness in Miller's game. He's average in that regard, but compared to the other facets of his game it's clearly not as well developed.

Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go f*** yourself Peter King.

baja
11-27-2012, 11:38 AM
DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

This is what I think will happen. Plus Manning gets MVP if we go deep into the playoffs and come back player too. One of the two for sure.

ludo21
11-27-2012, 11:47 AM
DPOY. He can't win rookie of the year again.

I wonder if there will be co DPOY this year.

my bad.

I hope no Co-dpoy.. that would suck

Chris
11-27-2012, 12:04 PM
Peter King is such a lazy POS.



Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

He wanted to but he had to eat some pizza.

Dedhed
11-27-2012, 12:09 PM
watt got 3 more sacks on thanksgiving. how is he trending the other way?

You understand that one game is pretty much the opposite of a "Trend" right?

Watt had 9.5 sacks through 6 games, but has slowed to 5 sacks in the last 5. That's a downward trend.

Von had 6 sacks through 7 games and has 8 sacks in the last 4 games. That's an upward trend.

MagicHef
11-27-2012, 12:15 PM
I'm not sure how Watt's 35 run stops are more than anyone else in football. Derrick Johnson has 42 and Lavonte David has 37.

razorwire77
11-27-2012, 12:23 PM
Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

bronco militia
11-27-2012, 12:24 PM
Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

damn it!

:rofl:

Dedhed
11-27-2012, 12:35 PM
Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

Now that's funny! Also probably true.

broncosteven
11-27-2012, 12:36 PM
King drops the ball yet again.

He fails to mention forced fumbles. Miller has 4 Watt: 0 (last time I checked). Edge MILLER

I didn't follow the link because I don't want to support King in any way shape or form.

WolfpackGuy
11-27-2012, 12:49 PM
If they could get some more push up the middle and consistently get out to leads, Von would be DPOY in a landslide.

Rock Chalk
11-27-2012, 12:59 PM
Calm down francis. He got his comparison data from profootballfocus.com and had you actually know you, READ THE ****ING ARTICLE you'd know this.
Each week, thanks to play-by-play game dissection by ProFootballFocus.com, I'll look at one important matchup or individual performance metric from one of the Sunday games.
Peter King is such a lazy POS.



Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

BroncoBeavis
11-27-2012, 01:18 PM
I'm not sure how Watt's 35 run stops are more than anyone else in football. Derrick Johnson has 42 and Lavonte David has 37.

I think he was only talking among DL.

rmsanger
11-27-2012, 01:20 PM
I bet everyone's rose colored glasses here wouldn't even think Watt has a chance.

BroncoBeavis
11-27-2012, 01:20 PM
Peter King is such a lazy POS.



Really, Peter? You're going to address Von's coverage by saying that it's "seen as a weakness"? By who? Oh, "he's average", huh? Tell me about the film study you did to determine this. Tell me about the weaknesses in his coverage ability that you've uncovered. Oh, you can't? Is that because you have no idea what you're talking about? Well that's fine, that's not your job. Oh wait, that is your job?

Go **** yourself Peter King.

Who knew saying "just flip a coin between him and JJ Watt" could generate so much anger. :)

ohiobronco2
11-27-2012, 01:23 PM
Who has more pass deflections?hmmm... Can't go wrong with either of them. Aldon Smith may also be making a push.

bronco militia
11-27-2012, 01:27 PM
You understand that one game is pretty much the opposite of a "Trend" right?

Watt had 9.5 sacks through 6 games, but has slowed to 5 sacks in the last 5. That's a downward trend.

Von had 6 sacks through 7 games and has 8 sacks in the last 4 games. That's an upward trend.


oh i see...depending where you draw the line, it's a downward trend.

He looked as domnating last week as he did against the broncos in week 3.

errand
11-27-2012, 01:35 PM
Gonna be tough for Von to win though. JJ Watt reminds everyone of Ed Mccaffrey

I know right? ****ing white guys......

MagicHef
11-27-2012, 02:00 PM
I think he was only talking among DL.

"His 35 defensive stops in run defense are four more than anyone in football."

So you're saying he is a terrible writer.

Yeah, I guess that's true. Good point.

rbackfactory80
11-27-2012, 02:08 PM
Who knew saying "just flip a coin between him and JJ Watt" could generate so much anger. :)

^5

BroncoBeavis
11-27-2012, 04:41 PM
"His 35 defensive stops in run defense are four more than anyone in football."

So you're saying he is a terrible writer.

Yeah, I guess that's true. Good point.

Read the whole paragraph for the context.

Run Defense: Watt plays the run better than anyone else at his position (including defensive tackles). His 35 defensive stops in run defense (tackles which are defeats for the offense) are four more than anyone in football.

Maybe the use of "anyone in football" was sloppy. But it was clear from reading the whole paragraph what he was trying to say.

KipCorrington25
11-27-2012, 05:15 PM
Watt reminds me of what Ed McCaffrey would have been like on defense.

Play2win
11-27-2012, 05:22 PM
Watt reminds me of what Ed McCaffrey would have been like on defense.

No way. Watt drops too many. Eddie makes those catches.

Watt reminds me much more of Eric Decker.

NUB
11-27-2012, 08:46 PM
They should split the award, if possible. Both players are some of the most disruptive forces to play defense in years but they do it in their own way.

Chris
11-27-2012, 10:10 PM
Peter King is still reeling from the disappointment of not being cast in Cheers.

Denver Bronco56
11-28-2012, 08:34 AM
they fail to mention how Von Miller has a HUGE lead in TFL

Mediator12
11-28-2012, 09:22 AM
The interesting thing would be to see how many plus/Minus grades they have. See how they actually have graded out to date instead of out of context stats.

What does PFF's grading system have them at?

MagicHef
11-28-2012, 04:46 PM
The interesting thing would be to see how many plus/Minus grades they have. See how they actually have graded out to date instead of out of context stats.

What does PFF's grading system have them at?

Watt: +67.2
Highest grade: +9.5, week 1
Lowest grade: +1.9, week 10

Miller: +58.8
Highest grade: +12.3, week 5
Lowest grade: -1.3, week 12 (his only negative grade)

broncswin
11-28-2012, 05:04 PM
I bet everyone's rose colored glasses here wouldn't even think Watt has a chance.

Mine aren't rise colored ... They are ORANGE!!