PDA

View Full Version : Denver is "the rare 8-3 team that has arguably been unlucky."


BowlenBall
11-27-2012, 03:11 AM
From the NY Times 5th Down blog:

Denver – 8-3 Despite Terrible Fumble Luck

The Broncos have won six straight games, and an easy remaining schedule sets them up for 12 or 13 wins. Amazingly, they’ve done this despite having terrible luck when it comes to recovering fumbles. Denver has forced 17 fumbles while coughing up 16. Once a ball is fumbled, it isn’t the better team that generally recovers the ball, it’s the team closest to the ball, and fumble recovery rates are notoriously random. Thirteen of Denver’s 16 fumbles were recovered by the defense, while the Broncos recovered only 5 of the 17 fumbles they forced. That means Denver has recovered just 24 percent (8 of 33) of the fumbles that have occurred in their games, making them as unfortunate as any team in the league. The good news for Broncos fans is that there is no reason to expect the Broncos’ poor fumble-recovery luck to continue, which makes them the rare 8-3 team that has arguably been unlucky.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/27/key-statistics-of-n-f-l-contenders/

Bob's your Information Minister
11-27-2012, 03:29 AM
Super Bowl.

Punisher
11-27-2012, 03:59 AM
Holy Crap were unlucky

extralife
11-27-2012, 04:10 AM
The good news for Broncos fans is that there is no reason to expect the Broncos’ poor fumble-recovery luck to continue

yeah, except they've been saying this since week 3. sometimes the coin just lands heads ten times in a row, what are you going to do?

it's also not entirely luck based. we've had people in prime position fall on the ball and not find a way to come up with it. at some point you just have to say that these guys suck at securing the ball.

UberBroncoMan
11-27-2012, 04:28 AM
Imagine if we had a 75% recovery rate instead.

Kaylore
11-27-2012, 07:07 AM
Conversely, the Ravens are the luckiest team in the league.

baja
11-27-2012, 07:13 AM
If we had played our games starting with the 16th and played to 1 (reversed our schedule ) wonder wonder what our record would be? To bad we caught Houston, NE and Atlanta early. I say we likely win 2 of the three.

Deuce
11-27-2012, 07:45 AM
It doesn't seem like bad luck to me, does anybody else think we are just really bad at securing loose fumbles? I don't know how many times I have found myself screaming at the tv "Just fall on the damn ball!!!!" after some d lineman tries to pick up the ball and run with it and ends up tripping over his own feet and kicking it 10 yards down field.

Rohirrim
11-27-2012, 08:54 AM
Maybe they don't do fumble drills? ???

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-27-2012, 08:57 AM
Get some interns. Have those interns hold a football while shadowing the players during the week. Interns randomly fumble the ball at times throughout the week. Players have to respond and recover no matter what they are doing.

BroncoBuff
11-27-2012, 09:05 AM
Interesting I guess ... but it's hard to quantify what this one slice of the broader, more relevant stat 'turnover ratio' means to wins and losses.

Dedhed
11-27-2012, 09:15 AM
If we had played our games starting with the 16th and played to 1 (reversed our schedule ) wonder wonder what our record would be? To bad we caught Houston, NE and Atlanta early. I say we likely win 2 of the three.

I like the fact that we lost early to teams we are likely to face in the playoffs. We weren't nearly as good as we are now, and it's always more difficult to beat a team the second time you play them.

I think that bodes well for a deep playoff run. I would like to see us somehow get to play them a Mile High.

Mediator12
11-27-2012, 09:21 AM
The thing about those games we lost, we struggled with turnovers mightily and that really tipped the game to them early. By the end of those games, we were flat out outplaying them and had just dug too deep of a hole to overcome.

Now, they are playing a little more disciplined and have seen some of the exotic defenses teams will try against Peyton. It will be that much harder to gameplan and execute those strategies against DEN in the playoffs. I would really love to get NE at DEN and repeat that last playoff loss to Brady. Need a little luck to get that, but its sure possible with their remaining schedule.

chickennob2
11-27-2012, 09:23 AM
at some point you just have to say that these guys suck at securing the ball.

No, you don't. You really don't.

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/exploring-denvers-fumble-woes-part-1
http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/a-second-helping-of-denvers-recovery-woes-opponent-fumbles

Greatspirits
11-27-2012, 09:45 AM
Houston, Baltimore and Atlanta have all squeaked out lucky wins the past few weeks, but as thee old adage goes, good teams find ways to win and they definitely have.

CEH
11-27-2012, 09:45 AM
The thing about those games we lost, we struggled with turnovers mightily and that really tipped the game to them early. By the end of those games, we were flat out outplaying them and had just dug too deep of a hole to overcome.

Now, they are playing a little more disciplined and have seen some of the exotic defenses teams will try against Peyton. It will be that much harder to gameplan and execute those strategies against DEN in the playoffs. I would really love to get NE at DEN and repeat that last playoff loss to Brady. Need a little luck to get that, but its sure possible with their remaining schedule.

I know. If we have to play NE we need to get them here. HOU I'm OK going down there because of the weather and Manning playing in front of that crowd several times. I just don't like Denver at Foxboro

Manning is a Ravens killer so it will be interesting to see how they perform there in two weeks.

Balt at home is plays like teh Balt we know. On the road not so much. Just another team IMO

Doggcow
11-27-2012, 10:06 AM
Houston, Baltimore and Atlanta have all squeaked out lucky wins the past few weeks, but as thee old adage goes, good teams find ways to win and they definitely have.

Whatever. SD just ****ing sucks.

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-27-2012, 10:14 AM
They overcome turnovers against bad to average teams and still win. It's hard to overcome turnovers against great teams. Mistake free football gets you a ring. Starting out slow in games is a problem that needs to be shored up too. In the playoffs that can hurt you. These are self inducing that can be cleaned up. They have a great chance to run the table and get far in January.

This week will be a good test. Martin with his almost 5 yards per. V Jackson's 20 yards per will test this defense real good

fdf
11-27-2012, 10:31 AM
The thing about those games we lost, we struggled with turnovers mightily and that really tipped the game to them early. By the end of those games, we were flat out outplaying them and had just dug too deep of a hole to overcome.

Now, they are playing a little more disciplined and have seen some of the exotic defenses teams will try against Peyton. It will be that much harder to gameplan and execute those strategies against DEN in the playoffs. I would really love to get NE at DEN and repeat that last playoff loss to Brady. Need a little luck to get that, but its sure possible with their remaining schedule.

Football Outsiders has been on this for about four weeks. Denver has and continues to have the worst "fumble luck" statistic in the league. They believe "fumble luck" is the difference between Denver's record and the football outsider stats, which say we should have no losses or only one loss. Their position is that fumbles are bad. But there is no rhyme or reason to who recovers the fumble--that is a question of luck.

Agamemnon
11-27-2012, 10:46 AM
People claiming it's anything but luck are being stupid. Footballs bounce in strange directions and are notoriously hard to secure in the heat of the moment. There is no explanation for our low recovery rate other than the capricious nature of probability.

CEH
11-27-2012, 10:50 AM
The ball fumble against Sd was just bad luck
All he wasvwas trying to do was get down at the 30

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-27-2012, 10:58 AM
The problem really isn't the lack of recovering a fumble(offense), it's the fact they fumble in the first place

Agamemnon
11-27-2012, 11:02 AM
The problem really isn't the lack of recovering a fumble(offense), it's the fact they fumble in the first place

Actually it's both.

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-27-2012, 11:10 AM
Actually it's both.

Well ya, but if there was no offensive fumbles there's no chance of not recovering it. Defense is another story

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-27-2012, 11:19 AM
I do think its luck. But what if a player is clearly the only one around the ball, tries picking it up and running before possessing it? Leonhard did that once. There's a small degree of player error that goes into it too.

Kaylore
11-27-2012, 11:19 AM
Well ya, but if there was no offensive fumbles there's no chance of not recovering it. Defense is another story

It's really recovering. We don't recover our own fumbles, losing almost all of them, and we force a lot of fumbles but our opponents almost always get them back. If we got it to 50/50 we'd be destroying teams.

Bacchus
11-27-2012, 11:23 AM
The problem really isn't the lack of recovering a fumble(offense), it's the fact they fumble in the first place

Denver is not fumbling much more than other teams. The problem is that they are not recovering any of their fumbles.

WolfpackGuy
11-27-2012, 11:25 AM
It's bad enough they're fumbling to begin with, but they have a real problem/bad luck recovering on both sides of the ball.

broncocalijohn
11-27-2012, 11:37 AM
Just shows you that the Broncos limit scores when they lose a fumble and our offense hasn't been a need of the turnover by fumble to win. It is still frustrating but the fact that both sides of the ball are playing pretty solid shows a great team. BUUUUT, those stats are disturbing when an opportunity against great offenses puts the rock on the ground and we rarely get that type of instant stop.

Kaylore
11-27-2012, 12:15 PM
What I take away from this is we haven't played our best football yet. I think it will take a loss, maybe even this week, to shock the players into practicing and playing with more of an edge. Whenever that loss comes, hopefully not the playoffs, we'll take things to another level.

baja
11-27-2012, 12:55 PM
People claiming it's anything but luck are being stupid. Footballs bounce in strange directions and are notoriously hard to secure in the heat of the moment. There is no explanation for our low recovery rate other than the capricious nature of probability.

I give you Franklin's missed recovery opportunity where he fell on the ball with no one near him and somehow it squirted out from between his soft belly and the ground.

maher_tyler
11-27-2012, 12:59 PM
Get some interns. Have those interns hold a football while shadowing the players during the week. Interns randomly fumble the ball at times throughout the week. Players have to respond and recover no matter what they are doing.

Reminds me of the scene from "The Program".

Agamemnon
11-27-2012, 01:07 PM
What I take away from this is we haven't played our best football yet. I think it will take a loss, maybe even this week, to shock the players into practicing and playing with more of an edge. Whenever that loss comes, hopefully not the playoffs, we'll take things to another level.

I've got to say I'd be more confident going into the playoffs at 12-4 than 13-3, even if it means we have to play an extra game. The thought of an 11 game win streak going into the playoffs makes me queazy.

chickennob2
11-27-2012, 01:43 PM
I do think its luck. But what if a player is clearly the only one around the ball, tries picking it up and running before possessing it? Leonhard did that once. There's a small degree of player error that goes into it too.

Yeah, Leonhard did that once.

But if you remember, two snaps after that one, we forced another fumble that was returned for a game changing touchdown. So that one actually worked out pretty well, haha.

Old Dude
11-28-2012, 10:04 AM
Denver moves to #1 on CHFF:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/denver-broncos-no-1-our-quality-stats-power-rankings/19692/

ZONA
11-28-2012, 04:53 PM
yeah, except they've been saying this since week 3. sometimes the coin just lands heads ten times in a row, what are you going to do?

it's also not entirely luck based. we've had people in prime position fall on the ball and not find a way to come up with it. at some point you just have to say that these guys suck at securing the ball.

Yes thank you. It's been utterly disgusting at how many time a Broncos player was in the correct spot, has the ball for a moment, and could not come up with the ball. Many times it wasn't even a player from the other team knocking it away, just a pure blunder by the Broncos player trying to recover the ball. I think the worst of these was the blunder by Franklin. Nobody around him at all. He does the right thing and does not try to pick up the ball. He falls down to the ground and tries to gather the ball and.....well we know the rest.


I mentioned this very thing a few weeks back when I saw a stat that showed the Broncos fumble recovery rate isn't just the worst in the league this year, it's among the worst in history.


Let's hope this gets fixed because we can't be -3 in the turnover battle. If we even recover half of the balls we should have we would be something like +6 or something.

Bacchus
11-28-2012, 05:44 PM
Denver moves to #1 on CHFF:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/denver-broncos-no-1-our-quality-stats-power-rankings/19692/

1. Denver Broncos (8-3) - Denver's lead in the AFC West has now stretched to four games with five to play. Peyton Manning 's passer rating of 104.8 is third among all QB's.

But here's the best part for Broncos fans: Peyton is finally paired with the defense that fans in Indy had always wished for. Denver is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index, a key measure of Super Bowl potential. They are No. 2 against the run, No. 3 pressuring the passer, and No. 4 on third-down. Teams that dominate the DHI typically reach the Super Bowl.

Cito Pelon
11-28-2012, 10:07 PM
8-3 with a -3 turnover ratio is pretty good.

The other top teams record-wise are all positive in turnover differential:

NE +24 (jebus)
Balt +12
HOU +8
CHI +13
NYG +13
SF +6
GB +5
ATL +3

There's some aberrations in there just like Denver is (Cleveland is +8 for instance, JAX is even, IND is -14, wow)

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/league/afc

Bronco Yoda
11-28-2012, 10:45 PM
Luck favors the prepared. Makes you wonder whats going on.

pricejj
11-29-2012, 12:21 AM
Luck favors the prepared. Makes you wonder whats going on.

Exactly. It's not "luck" that NE is +24. They are coached to gang tackle and strip the ball. More guys around the ball + guys trying to strip the ball all the time = +24.


IAOFM are morons for trying to preach that it's just pure dumb luck.

extralife
11-29-2012, 12:57 AM
Exactly. It's not "luck" that NE is +24. They are coached to gang tackle and strip the ball. More guys around the ball + guys trying to strip the ball all the time = +24.


IAOFM are morons for trying to preach that it's just pure dumb luck.

don't be a moron, IAOFM is not saying turnover differential is luck, they are saying fumble recovery is luck.

though, yes, luck plays a large role in the former as well. look at the huge variations in turnover differential from year to year. San Francisco was +28 last year, they are +6 this year with the exact same team and the exact same coaching staff. It is not luck that Tom Brady never throws interceptions, but there is quite a bit of luck involved in difference between throwing 3 on the year, and throwing, say, 7. As one example.

Old Dude
11-29-2012, 06:32 AM
Denver is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index, a key measure of Super Bowl potential. They are No. 2 against the run, No. 3 pressuring the passer, and No. 4 on third-down. Teams that dominate the DHI typically reach the Super Bowl.

Denver is also tied for 4th in the Offensive Hog Index, which is based mainly on average yards per rush attempt, 3d down % and fewest negative passing plays.

No other team ranks that high in the combination of both Hog catagories.

Kaylore
11-29-2012, 07:17 AM
1. Denver Broncos (8-3) - Denver's lead in the AFC West has now stretched to four games with five to play. Peyton Manning 's passer rating of 104.8 is third among all QB's.

But here's the best part for Broncos fans: Peyton is finally paired with the defense that fans in Indy had always wished for. Denver is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index, a key measure of Super Bowl potential. They are No. 2 against the run, No. 3 pressuring the passer, and No. 4 on third-down. Teams that dominate the DHI typically reach the Super Bowl.

http://images.wikia.com/glee/images/9/9b/Finn-head-nod.gif

Old Dude
11-29-2012, 07:40 AM
Football Outsiders rank special teams based on a variety of factors. (kick %, return yards, etc.)

They have Denver ranked 8th (unadjusted) and 10th when adjusted for weather and altitude.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst

The two missed FGs by Prater last week probably didn't help, but surprisingly, they moved up one slot - apparently as a result of yardage in the return game and other teams having their own issues as bad weather moves in.

Not surprisingly, Baltimore is ranked #1 and New England is #2. Strangely enough, the Texans are ranked dead last.

Edit: I was curious to see how this stacked up against their ST rankings for Denver in past years. It's the highest the Broncos have been ranked since 2002:

2002: 8th
2003: 23d
2004: 24th
2005: 28th
2006: 15th
2007: 28th
2008: 31st
2009: 18th
2010: 27th
2011: 18th

cutthemdown
11-29-2012, 08:11 AM
The highest by quite a bit Old Dude. Amazing how much better the team is. We all knew they were poorly coached when we saw 12 men on the field, defense running around confused pre snap, special teams never being able to contain returners or get returns etc etc.

Elway has done a remarkable job. He's one of those men that just seems to have success in whatever he does.

baja
11-29-2012, 08:32 AM
The highest by quite a bit Old Dude. Amazing how much better the team is. We all knew they were poorly coached when we saw 12 men on the field, defense running around confused pre snap, special teams never being able to contain returners or get returns etc etc.

Elway has done a remarkable job. He's one of those men that just seems to have success in whatever he does.

Except marriage ;D