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View Full Version : The Magic Numbers Thread - Updated through Week 15


DomCasual
11-26-2012, 05:15 PM
I figured I would update this one more time, even though it's become much more simple (at least for us).

The following are our magic numbers with each team throughout the conference (for those of you who spend most of your time under a rock, "magic number" means the combined number of our wins and opponent's losses). This takes into account simple, two-way tiebreakers, like head-to-head, conference, and division records.

This is through Week Fifteen:

Houston - 4
New England - 2
Indianapolis - 0
Baltimore - 0
Pittsburgh - 0
Cincinnati - 0
Miami - 0
NY Jets - 0
Buffalo - 0
Cleveland - 0
Tennessee - 0
San Diego - 0
Oakland - 0
Jacksonville - 0
Kansas City - 0

At this point, it's pretty simple. We can only be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd seed.

Houston could end up 1st, 2nd, or 3rd - but not 4th.

New England still has scenarios where it could finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

Baltimore could finish anywhere between 3 and 6 - they could go no higher or lower.

Indianapolis has clinched, and is locked into either 5 or 6.

Cincinnati could finish as high as 4, and they could miss the playoffs. If Cincinnati wins this weekend, it's in.

Pittsburgh is the same as Cincinnati. Pittsburgh controls its destiny, with games against Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Miami has an almost impossible long shot that could get them in at 6. They could get in by winning their final two games (BUF and @NE); having Cincinnati lose its last two games (@ PIT and BAL); and having Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati and lost at home to Cleveland.

Requiem
11-26-2012, 05:21 PM
What?

DomCasual
11-26-2012, 05:23 PM
What?

Who?

DomCasual
11-26-2012, 05:24 PM
What?

Where?

orinjkrush
11-26-2012, 05:25 PM
miller's magic number is 7 +/- 2.

Kid A
11-26-2012, 05:25 PM
What?

I believe he means these are the number of games needed to secure us finishing above said team.

For instance, we are guaranteed, even if we lose out and they win out, to finish above KC. We only need 1 win or 1 loss to ensure the same against San Diego. And we would need a combination of Denver wins and Houston losses that total 8 to finish ahead of them (Could be 5 Denver wins and 3 Houston losses, could be 4 & 4, etc).

Old Dude
11-27-2012, 04:25 AM
Dom, I think you can reduce Oakland to a zero. At best/worst, they finish in an 8-8 tie with Denver, but I don't believe there is any scenario where they win the tiebreaker. I'm certain of that when it comes to the division title.

And I don't think there is any scenario where Denver and Oakland tie for a wild card spot. For that to happen, San Diego would have to win the division by winning out. But that would necessarily include a win over the Raiders and drop them to a max of 7-9.

If Denver, SD and Oakland all finish 8-8, Denver again wins the division on tiebreakers.

DomCasual
11-27-2012, 05:55 AM
Dom, I think you can reduce Oakland to a zero. At best/worst, they finish in an 8-8 tie with Denver, but I don't believe there is any scenario where they win the tiebreaker. I'm certain of that when it comes to the division title.

And I don't think there is any scenario where Denver and Oakland tie for a wild card spot. For that to happen, San Diego would have to win the division by winning out. But that would necessarily include a win over the Raiders and drop them to a max of 7-9.

If Denver, SD and Oakland all finish 8-8, Denver again wins the division on tiebreakers.

Okay, Oakland has been changed to zero. Old Dude has spoken!

spdirty
11-27-2012, 06:28 AM
Just win out and hope New England loses a game. They have Houston and San Francisco coming up. That's all there is to it.

Pony Boy
11-27-2012, 07:39 AM
Is this something like "magic shoes" .....?

cutthemdown
11-27-2012, 07:50 AM
Just win out and hope New England loses a game. They have Houston and San Francisco coming up. That's all there is to it.

It would be huge to get NE in Denver. I think they beat Houston but NE weakness in protecting Manning crops up vs NE. We have a chance to win out IMO.

cutthemdown
11-27-2012, 07:51 AM
Okay, Oakland has been changed to zero. Old Dude has spoken!

You could probably make -1 and still be safe. :rofl:

Really though it wasn't Palmers play that suck Oakland. It was all the other crappy players they have. Oh well see ya next yr Silver and Bleak.

gunns
11-27-2012, 12:43 PM
Just win out and hope New England loses a game. They have Houston and San Francisco coming up. That's all there is to it.

I think NE loses both but it cracks me up that both are in NE. I know the schedules are neutral but it just seems it all plays to NE all the time. NE struggles against good defenses with a decent offense. I also think we could beat them now but not with the team that played SD and KC.

Smiling Assassin27
11-27-2012, 01:31 PM
Okay, Oakland has been changed to zero. Old Dude has spoken!


They should ALL be 3...

Old Dude
11-28-2012, 05:11 AM
Okay, Oakland has been changed to zero. Old Dude has spoken!

So have these guys!

"It has been verified by the Elias Sports Bureau that the third-place Oakland Raiders are eliminated from the division title even though with a 3-8 record they can mathematically match the Broncos, who are 8-3 with five games remaining."



Read more: Broncos need one win or one Chargers loss to clinch AFC West - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_22070543/broncos-need-one-win-or-one-chargers-loss#ixzz2DWSSN0dV

Old Dude
11-29-2012, 12:47 PM
For your further amusement, here's the yahoo playoff calculator:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=WinningPct

baja
11-29-2012, 01:01 PM
according to this if we beat bmore and everything else stays the same we get the 2 seed.

Eldorado
11-29-2012, 01:07 PM
according to this if we beat bmore and everything else stays the same we get the 2 seed.

They have NE losing to Houston and SF.

Old Dude
11-29-2012, 01:11 PM
They have NE losing to Houston and SF.

That's because the default is set to winning percentage. You can use different defaults such as offensive or defensive rating or you can play around with the results of individual games however you want, including ties.

Eldorado
11-29-2012, 01:20 PM
That's because the default is set to winning percentage. You can use different defaults such as offensive or defensive rating or you can play around with the results of individual games however you want, including ties.

This is where I would normally use the "You don't say!?" pic, but I have respect for really old people.

ludo21
11-29-2012, 01:58 PM
i dont see us catching NE or Houston, we probably get the 3 seed

Old Dude
11-29-2012, 02:06 PM
This is where I would normally use the "You don't say!?" pic, but I have respect for really old people.

We appreciate that! :olddude::olddude::olddude::olddude::olddude:

Nwp-Apap
11-29-2012, 02:23 PM
i dont see us catching NE or Houston, we probably get the 3 seed

You don't see NE losing again? If we win out and they lose once, the 2nd seed is ours..

Kaylore
11-29-2012, 02:24 PM
I still don't understand the op.

maher_tyler
11-29-2012, 02:37 PM
i dont see us catching NE or Houston, we probably get the 3 seed

You think they beat SF and Houston? I think they lose at least one or both. For our sake i hope they lose both just in case we lose in Baltimore.

maher_tyler
11-29-2012, 02:38 PM
I still don't understand the op.

Kid A explained it pretty well.

Kaylore
11-29-2012, 02:59 PM
Kid A explained it pretty well.

So you add our wins to their losses. There's gotta be a better way!

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/frD6yrV2Dy0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

DomCasual
11-29-2012, 03:05 PM
I still don't understand the op.

Okay, take the Broncos and any other team. Let's use Indianapolis as an example. Our "magic number" with Indianapolis is the combination of our wins and their losses, among the remaining games, that will be required for us to guarantee that we end up ahead of them, at the end of the year.

So, right now, that number is five.

So, let's say that on Sunday, we beat the Bucs. Then, our magic number with Indianapolis drops by one, to four.

Then, let's say that Indianapolis loses their game to Detroit. That would drop our magic number to three.

It's an easy way to look at every team, and have a simple way of knowing what would have to happen for us to get seeded ahead of them.

San Diego is another example. Right now, the magic number is one. If we beat the Bucs, then it doesn't matter what San Diego does - the magic number hits zero. If we lose to the Bucs, and San Diego beats Cincinnati, then the number stays at one, and we move on to the next week. If we lose to the Bucs, and San Diego loses to the Bengals, the number goes to zero. When it hits zero, you clinch - as it pertains to that team.

With the Texans, it's highly unlikely the number will get to zero. Right now, it's eight. If we win out - five wins - it will get it to three. So, the Texans would have to lose three out of five for us to pass them.

New England, on the other hand, is much more realistic. It's six. So, we get five wins, and all we need is one New England loss.

That's a long explanation. But hopefully it makes sense now.

DomCasual
11-29-2012, 03:17 PM
So you add our wins to their losses. There's gotta be a better way!

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/frD6yrV2Dy0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

There is no better way, Kevin. Counting wins and losses lets you know playoff scenarios every day.

baja
11-29-2012, 04:22 PM
I still don't understand the op.

If serious see post #6

Old Dude
11-29-2012, 06:16 PM
...
That's a long explanation. But hopefully it makes sense now.

It's a baseball concept. Only those of us old enough to remember baseball really understand it.

MagicHef
12-04-2012, 02:29 PM
After week 13:

Houston: 7
New England: 5
Indianapolis: 4
Baltimore: 3 (or 5 if they beat us)
Pittsburgh: 2
Cincinnati: 2
Miami: 1
Buffalo: 1
Cleveland: 1
NY Jets: 1

DomCasual
12-04-2012, 03:00 PM
After week 13:

Houston: 7
New England: 5
Indianapolis: 4
Baltimore: 3 (or 5 if they beat us)
Pittsburgh: 2
Cincinnati: 2
Miami: 1
Buffalo: 1
Cleveland: 1
NY Jets: 1

Thanks, Hef! I'll update the initial post.

baja
12-04-2012, 04:03 PM
In other words;

We win out Houston needs to lose 3

We win out NE needs to lose 1

We win out we beat out all the rest.

DomCasual
12-19-2012, 07:45 PM
Updated one more time. Man, it's awesome having this mostly wrapped up this year - not having to worry about our mediocre team needing to beat other mediocre teams during the last two weeks - all so we could get in and be a sacrificial lamb for a much better team in the first round of the playoffs.

God bless Peyton Manning, in other words!

DomCasual
12-30-2012, 04:54 PM
Update:

ALL ZEROES, BABY!