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pricejj
11-15-2012, 03:10 PM
The only weakness I see on the Broncos this year, is the ability to pick up 1st downs rushing the ball. McGahee is great, but I want to see Hillman step up as a solid and explosive #2 option. McGahee is on pace for about 285 carries...which is a bunch for a 31-year-old RB. The Colts leaned heavily on Dominique Rhodes to win the SuperBowl in 2007. I have always thought that if the Broncos can get at least 4.0 ypc, then we have a good chance to pick up first downs, get to the playoffs, and win the Superbowl. Where do we sit now?

2012 - Broncos, 3.8 (26th)


Where do we rate historically?


Past 10 SuperBowl Champion rushing statistics:
2011 - Giants, 3.5 ypc (32nd)
2010 - Packers, 3.8 ypc (25th)
2009 - Saints, 4.5 ypc (7th)
2008 - Steelers, 3.7 ypc (29th)
2007 - Giants, 4.6 ypc (4th)
2006 - Colts, 4.0 ypc (16th)
2005 - Steelesr, 4.0 ypc (12th)
2004 - Patriots, 4.1 ypc (18th)
2003 - Patriots, 3.4 ypc (30th)
2002 - Buccaneers, 3.8 (28th)

Average = 3.94 ypc (20th)


Time to step it up, and boost run production!


Come on Hillman, you can do it! :strong:

Nwp-Apap
11-15-2012, 03:29 PM
McGahee and his league leading fumbles are at fault as well. As well as having the 24th best YPC amongst NFL RBs. He's having a poor year.

He is the starter, he is expected to do well. He himself said that once a QB change was made it would make things easier for him, he needs to back up his words and step it up.

pricejj
11-15-2012, 03:39 PM
I can live with 4.2 YPC...McGahee is showing up big-time in the passing game (on pace for 45 catches).

The fumbles are drive-killing whackness...but can be corrected. Otherwise, the dude is beasting. The more you use him, the more he will get worn down. Hillman needs to emerge.

prunch
11-15-2012, 03:48 PM
Gotta put some of this on the OLine too. When I watch McGahee, I don't see him missing much in the way of lost yardage.

Atwater His Ass
11-15-2012, 03:50 PM
Seems McGahee has lost a step from last season. He's sometimes hesitant at the line and he just doesn't have the agility to stop and go like that. When he gets a full head of steam he's pretty intimidating, but ironically doesn't seem to do well in short yardage obvious running situations.

Definately RB, is one of the weakest spots on the roster currently.

baja
11-15-2012, 03:55 PM
I think we will see KM activated this week and he will get some carries. Probably see Doom inactive.

baja
11-15-2012, 03:56 PM
I think we will see KM activated this week and he will get some carries. Probably see Doom inactive.

yakyakyuk
11-15-2012, 04:17 PM
I think WM needs a "shot across the bow" about his fumbling - so welcome KM getting some carries. Wish we had a better alternative.

We need something different on 3rd and short - recent weeks we have been stuffed at least once. What about Gronkowski? Maybe he can help - either block or carry.

Atwater His Ass
11-15-2012, 04:19 PM
Moreno in no way shape or form should ever be suiting up for this team again.

Solution to convert 3rd and short is to pass. Trust Manning to find a receiver in the flat and convert, or hell, take a shot deep. I'd rather see an incomplete deep pass attempt than watch McGahee get stuffed at the los dancing around again.

CEH
11-15-2012, 04:22 PM
So the #3 offense in the NFL is not good enough to win the Super Bowl?


Not worried at all. Yes everyone would like to be better at something but Denver is just fine running the ball right now. The fumbles are another issue but they have enough run game right now to beat someone in the Super Bowl

It's still about the QB come playoff time.

DBroncos4life
11-15-2012, 04:56 PM
I know people like to bust his balls this year but, something that goes unnoticed is his receptions for first downs. He has another 9 catches for first downs already this year. Last year he had 2. Catches and runs for first downs last year total was 54. This years total is 49 through 9 games He is on pace for career high in catches and receiving yards as well. Lots of work for the 31 year old back in a new fast pace O. Fumbles aside he is playing damn near the best football in his career from a stat stand point

Requiem
11-15-2012, 05:02 PM
And to think that we could have had Douglas Martin, but settled for a loner from a trailer park.

Bronco Boy
11-15-2012, 05:11 PM
I think WM needs a "shot across the bow" about his fumbling - so welcome KM getting some carries. Wish we had a better alternative.

We need something different on 3rd and short - recent weeks we have been stuffed at least once. What about Gronkowski? Maybe he can help - either block or carry.

Gronk is 5th in the voting for the Pro Bowl. Putting him on the field may hurt his ranking.

baja
11-15-2012, 06:16 PM
Moreno in no way shape or form should ever be suiting up for this team again.

Solution to convert 3rd and short is to pass. Trust Manning to find a receiver in the flat and convert, or hell, take a shot deep. I'd rather see an incomplete deep pass attempt than watch McGahee get stuffed at the los dancing around again.

Willis McGahee and dancing around do not belong in the same sentence

baja
11-15-2012, 06:17 PM
Gronk is 5th in the voting for the Pro Bowl. Putting him on the field may hurt his ranking.

That's only because only 5 AFC teams carry a fullback. ;D

lonestar
11-15-2012, 06:22 PM
ah all the absolutes from the arm chair GMs/HCs..

Think I will allow the real OC on teh team to make those decisions Manning has not failed us so far..

Bronco Boy
11-15-2012, 06:54 PM
ah all the absolutes from the arm chair GMs/HCs..

Think I will allow the real OC on teh team to make those decisions Manning has not failed us so far..

Well there were those 3 times...

Broncos_OTM
11-15-2012, 08:41 PM
And to think that we could have had Douglas Martin, but settled for a loner from a trailer park.

I thought people were crying for l david. Hind sight is so 20/20 for skme folks

pricejj
11-15-2012, 10:30 PM
So the #3 offense in the NFL is not good enough to win the Super Bowl?


It wasn't enough for Peyton 3 years ago. One drive in the 2nd half of that SuperBowl, the Colts tried to run some clock, and desperately pick up a first down with 3 straight runs...couldn't do it. They averaged 3.5 ypc that year, and didn't get the job done.

I know people like to bust his balls this year but, something that goes unnoticed is his receptions for first downs. He has another 9 catches for first downs already this year. Last year he had 2. Catches and runs for first downs last year total was 54. This years total is 49 through 9 games He is on pace for career high in catches and receiving yards as well. Lots of work for the 31 year old back in a new fast pace O. Fumbles aside he is playing damn near the best football in his career from a stat stand point

This might be a good time for me to mention that I predicted McGahee would get 45 catches this year before the season started, and was laughed off the board.

And to think that we could have had Douglas Martin, but settled for a loner from a trailer park.

1. Where the hell have you been?
2. Wolfe should have been credited with 0.5 sack a couple games ago that Dumervil got full credit for. Wolfe also got robbed of a sack, on a questionable offsides call on Dumervil. He should have 4.5 sacks. That would put him on pace for about 8 this year. Not too shabby for a trailer park loner eh? As it stands, he's on pace for 50 tackles, and 6 sacks...which is good enough for me and will make him a strong candidate for DROY.

CEH
11-16-2012, 01:44 AM
It wasn't enough for Peyton 3 years ago. One drive in the 2nd half of that SuperBowl, the Colts tried to run some clock, and desperately pick up a first down with 3 straight runs...couldn't do it. They averaged 3.5 ypc that year, and didn't get the job done.



Based on your average of 3.5 ypc running it 3 straight times should net you a first down everytime so 3.86 should do the same.

What average ypc do you need to run it 3 straight times to get a first down?


and how many teams run it 3 straight times in the NFL and of those that do how many pick up a 1st down? I bet it's a very low 1st down rate no matter what your yards per carry for the season is

Running the ball for 3.86 yards a clip is not optimal but its good enough of a run game to do what you are trying to do on offense. Pound the ball to set up the play action and later on in the game break off a couple bigger runs

See Car videos of Manning telling them why they need to run the ball

Sticking with the run is really the better route then to look at ypc

28 carries for 110 (< 4 yards per carry) will win you alot of Super Bowls and in the Colts lost to the Saints in the SB they averaged 5+ ypc

pricejj
11-16-2012, 09:48 AM
Based on your average of 3.5 ypc running it 3 straight times should net you a first down everytime so 3.86 should do the same.

What average ypc do you need to run it 3 straight times to get a first down?


and how many teams run it 3 straight times in the NFL and of those that do how many pick up a 1st down? I bet it's a very low 1st down rate no matter what your yards per carry for the season is

Running the ball for 3.86 yards a clip is not optimal but its good enough of a run game to do what you are trying to do on offense. Pound the ball to set up the play action and later on in the game break off a couple bigger runs

See Car videos of Manning telling them why they need to run the ball

Sticking with the run is really the better route then to look at ypc

28 carries for 110 (< 4 yards per carry) will win you alot of Super Bowls and in the Colts lost to the Saints in the SB they averaged 5+ ypc

...but the Colts couldn't run the ball when they had too.

Do you think the Broncos could pick up a first down rushing the ball if it's 3rd and 3? 3rd and 2? 3rd and 1?

I don't, and there is ample evidence to prove that I'm right.

The key is keeping drives alive. Anybody can average 3.8 ypc if you only run the ball to keep the Defense honest. But can you run the ball when the Defense is expecting run? The current answer is "NO".

DBroncos4life
11-16-2012, 09:58 AM
It wasn't enough for Peyton 3 years ago. One drive in the 2nd half of that SuperBowl, the Colts tried to run some clock, and desperately pick up a first down with 3 straight runs...couldn't do it. They averaged 3.5 ypc that year, and didn't get the job done.



This might be a good time for me to mention that I predicted McGahee would get 45 catches this year before the season started, and was laughed off the board.



1. Where the hell have you been?
2. Wolfe should have been credited with 0.5 sack a couple games ago that Dumervil got full credit for. Wolfe also got robbed of a sack, on a questionable offsides call on Dumervil. He should have 4.5 sacks. That would put him on pace for about 8 this year. Not too shabby for a trailer park loner eh? As it stands, he's on pace for 50 tackles, and 6 sacks...which is good enough for me and will make him a strong candidate for DROY.

I believe you predicted Moreno to have about that many too. How is that working out?

Requiem
11-16-2012, 09:59 AM
1. Where the hell have you been?
2. Wolfe should have been credited with 0.5 sack a couple games ago that Dumervil got full credit for. Wolfe also got robbed of a sack, on a questionable offsides call on Dumervil. He should have 4.5 sacks. That would put him on pace for about 8 this year. Not too shabby for a trailer park loner eh? As it stands, he's on pace for 50 tackles, and 6 sacks...which is good enough for me and will make him a strong candidate for DROY.

(A) Banned. (B) Wolfe has done a pretty solid job this year for a rookie. My comment was in jest. (C) To Broncos_OTM -- people wanted Lavonte David where we selected Osweiler.

DBroncos4life
11-16-2012, 10:01 AM
...but the Colts couldn't run the ball when they had too.

Do you think the Broncos could pick up a first down rushing the ball if it's 3rd and 3? 3rd and 2? 3rd and 1?

I don't, and there is ample evidence to prove that I'm right.

The key is keeping drives alive. Anybody can average 3.8 ypc if you only run the ball to keep the Defense honest. But can you run the ball when the Defense is expecting run? The current answer is "NO".

McGahee is 7th in rushing first downs.

CEH
11-16-2012, 10:16 AM
...but the Colts couldn't run the ball when they had too.

Do you think the Broncos could pick up a first down rushing the ball if it's 3rd and 3? 3rd and 2? 3rd and 1?

I don't, and there is ample evidence to prove that I'm right.

The key is keeping drives alive. Anybody can average 3.8 ypc if you only run the ball to keep the Defense honest. But can you run the ball when the Defense is expecting run? The current answer is "NO".

And your premise of getting to 4.0 ypc up from 3.86 ypc is some sort of magic number that will solve the Broncos short yardage situations?

OK get Elway on the phone you have unlocked the secret to winning the Super Bowl

pricejj
11-16-2012, 10:17 AM
ypc could be affect by a couple long runs or just look at your example of the Colts Super Bowl why your premise of getting to 4.0 ypc is not really an answer

Running the ball better in short yardage situations is really what you are trying to say which is an area that can be improved no doubt

Average all the long runs and the short runs, and I stick with 4.0 ypc as a goal. I'm not changing it.

I'm looking for a little improvement, nothing major. Hillman needs to get the rock more, and be able to pick up first downs. He has to be able to be depended on....and Willis needs to be rested a little bit more so he can continue to be explosive and concentrate on holding onto the ball.

We are now in the second half of the season with a single-back set. The OL run-blocking needs to step up too...including Dreessen. Like Manning says, everybody needs to continue to improve.

Like I said, if the Broncos can improve to 4.0 ypc, you can find me camping out behind the Superdome until February. If you come searching, please bring some TP.

CEH
11-16-2012, 10:30 AM
Average all the long runs and the short runs, and I stick with 4.0 ypc as a goal. I'm not changing it.

I'm looking for a little improvement, nothing major. Hillman needs to get the rock more, and be able to pick up first downs. He has to be able to be depended on....and Willis needs to be rested a little bit more so he can continue to be explosive and concentrate on holding onto the ball.

We are now in the second half of the season with a single-back set. The OL run-blocking needs to step up too...including Dreessen. Like Manning says, everybody needs to continue to improve.

Like I said, if the Broncos can improve to 4.0 ypc, you can find me camping out behind the Superdome until February. If you come searching, please bring some TP.

Up from 3.86? Pick 22 carries a game. Those extra 3 yards a game will fix the short yaraage situations? Only if those 3 yards are all on 3rd and one which I highly doubt you can use as a basis for 4.0

I will lean on point differentail as a key metric to validate future success and Denver is +9 per game which is 5th in the NFL and a reason why I say the running game is adequate to win the Super Bowl right now

Getting better in short yardage will always be a goal

Dedhed
11-16-2012, 10:52 AM
ah all the absolutes from the arm chair GMs/HCs..

Think I will allow the real OC on teh team to make those decisions Manning has not failed us so far..This is my least favorite take on any discussion board.

"Why talk about it? I just trust the Coaches"

The whole point of an NFL discussion board is to play armchair Coach/GM.

baja
11-16-2012, 10:52 AM
McGahee is 7th in rushing first downs.

How is he doing on 3rd and short?

That's the stat that matters.

pricejj
11-16-2012, 10:53 AM
Up from 3.86? Pick 22 carries a game. Those extra 3 yards a game will fix the short yaraage situations? Only if those 3 yards are all on 3rd and one which I highly doubt you can use as a basis for 4.0

I will lean on point differentail as a key metric to validate future success and Denver is +9 per game which is 5th in the NFL and a reason why I say the running game is adequate to win the Super Bowl right now

Getting better in short yardage will always be a goal

Actually, the Broncos have been averaging 27 rushes per game. To reach 4.0 ypc by the end of the year (with a 27 rush/game average), the Broncos will have to gain an additional 816 yards on the ground in 190 carries...that's about 4.3 ypc for the remainder of the year...which averages out to 116 ypg rushing. Right now, we are averaging 102 ypg.

I think the additional 14 ypg rushing with the same amount of carries is a good goal. It's an extra half a yard per rush. We would be close to top 12 in rushing, which was Elway's stated goal coming into the year.

If you have any questions about the rushing goal, ask Elway.

lonestar
11-16-2012, 11:05 AM
This is my least favorite take on any discussion board.

"Why talk about it? I just trust the Coaches"

The whole point of an NFL discussion board is to play armchair Coach/GM.

I agree but to piss and moan about something you have little. No make that NO control over is silly.

Do not like the coaching talk to Pat or John. I'm sure they already have plans to fix it ASAP, being so absolute about things only makes sure that discussion gets heated. And therapists get Rich.

But go ahead piss and moan all you want. Not going change anything. But then it's maybe Elway is on here sucking up ideas, because he does not have any experience in the game.

lonestar
11-16-2012, 11:08 AM
Let me add if I did not think Elway has about the best staff I can remember seeing then I would be making noises.
Just as I did when Mikey was screwing up my team.

Is Fox a tad conservative? Yes but I will take that any day over what Mikey continued to do for close to a decade after winning two rings.

pricejj
11-18-2012, 11:05 PM
Impressive effort against the #3 overall run defense in the NFL (Chargers). There's obviously a ton of work to do. Gaining zero yards, when all we needed was a 1st down to close out the game is not acceptable. But, at least the deficiencies are front and center.

McGahee was kicking ass early. Hillman, and Ball broke off some good runs when it counted. All you can hope for, is to see improvement from week to week.

Hopefully we can get busy against the Chiefs. :sunshine:

CEH
11-19-2012, 07:37 AM
Impressive effort against the #3 overall run defense in the NFL (Chargers). There's obviously a ton of work to do. Gaining zero yards, when all we needed was a 1st down to close out the game is not acceptable. But, at least the deficiencies are front and center.

McGahee was kicking ass early. Hillman, and Ball broke off some good runs when it counted. All you can hope for, is to see improvement from week to week.

Hopefully we can get busy against the Chiefs. :sunshine:

No what was unacceptable was the clock manangent Manning and Co showed not running the game clock down to 5 or so on their last two FG drives. Many times the Broncos ran the play with 10-11 seconds left on the clock and that ended up leaving SD 30 seconds and a on side kick away from trying to tie the game.Watching Hillman run onto the field for the play after a timeout was unacceptable

Easily could have made that last drive a moot point with better clock manangment earlier.

Rohirrim
11-19-2012, 08:07 AM
AFAIC, Manning is responsible for the safety. You going to tell me he didn't see Virgil Green matched up on Shaun Phillips? And then he calls a pass play? Peyton was off yesterday. Some of those passes were just plain bad. Fortunately, the Broncos defense kicked ass.

CEH
11-19-2012, 08:17 AM
AFAIC, Manning is responsible for the safety. You going to tell me he didn't see Virgil Green matched up on Shaun Phillips? And then he calls a pass play? Peyton was off yesterday. Some of those passes were just plain bad. Fortunately, the Broncos defense kicked ass.

I agree. Manning was off yesterday. Missed a wide open Tamme for what might have been a TD he usally hits those passes

Decker and DT while they caught a TD each with DT's a thing of beauty they too had their drops that would have kept drives alive and how Ball fumbles that 3rd down pass was unbelieveable.

At one point it was 24-9 or basically 24-0 for the defense

Seems the offense or ST puts the ball on the ground 2-3 times a game. This will come back to bite the team later in the year

Holliday scares the heck out of me. It's feast or famine for Holliday

ScottXray
11-19-2012, 08:25 AM
AFAIC, Manning is responsible for the safety. You going to tell me he didn't see Virgil Green matched up on Shaun Phillips? And then he calls a pass play? Peyton was off yesterday. Some of those passes were just plain bad. Fortunately, the Broncos defense kicked ass.

Agree that Peyton had a bad ( for him ) game. He was off pace for most of the first half and was overthrowing and lobbing passes. I'm sure HE knew that he was not getting it done and was frustrated with his performance. The Defense absolutely bailed him ( and the O) out the first half by dominating. And even with that performance we lost the time of possession for the whole game by 3 minutes.

McGahee going out seemed to stop any consistancy by the O...but even before that , when M was balling ( 7 for 55), the team was not able to keep drives going, because they went to the pass too much.

2KBack
11-19-2012, 08:30 AM
Agree that Peyton had a bad ( for him ) game. He was off pace for most of the first half and was overthrowing and lobbing passes. I'm sure HE knew that he was not getting it done and was frustrated with his performance. The Defense absolutely bailed him ( and the O) out the first half by dominating. And even with that performance we lost the time of possession for the whole game by 3 minutes.

McGahee going out seemed to stop any consistancy by the O...but even before that , when M was balling ( 7 for 55), the team was not able to keep drives going, because they went to the pass too much.

MY issue was with the type of passes they were. Everything was within a few yards of the line of scrimmage....The strength of SD defense in my opinion. On TV I couldn't see the secondary play, but it looked to me like SD was daring us to take shots.

pricejj
11-19-2012, 09:31 AM
No what was unacceptable was the clock manangent .

Yeah, I noticed the poor clock management a couple times, too...


At least both Hillman and Ball were able to get some confidence against a good Defense. The Chiefs game gives us an opportunity to work on the run game a little more than we would otherwise be afforded.

The Broncos need to start figuring out how to put away games on the ground...and dominate opponents. They really are in a great position to start learning how to play with the lead, and begin to close out the schedule.