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baja
11-14-2012, 08:19 AM
When the calendar makes the turn from October to November, the leaves fall, the clocks fall back and the Broncos have followed suit in recent years.
Since their appearance in the AFC championship game to close out the 2005 season, the Broncos are a less-than-robust 22-32 (a .407 winning percentage) in regular-season games played in November, December and January. They have watched potentially promising season after season dissolve in their almost annual struggles down the stretch.
Which is why, even with a chance to put a two-hand, lock-it-down grip on the AFC West race Sunday with a victory over the San Diego Chargers at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, the Broncos have tried to add some perspective to things.
"The biggest key right now is to just keep doing what we're doing," cornerback Champ Bailey said. "It's easy to get caught up in things. We've had some success. But we've seen this before. You can't let the little things get away from you. The little things lead to the big things.


Read more: Recent history has not been kind to Broncos' late-season efforts - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_21990557/recent-history-has-not-been-kind-broncos-late#ixzz2CDMhtoNY
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

baja
11-14-2012, 08:20 AM
Not gonna happen this season, we got Peyton f'n Manning

baja
11-14-2012, 08:21 AM
...and we don't have the Mastermind

baja
11-14-2012, 08:24 AM
Footnote. The Broncos cleared the way to add linebacker D.J. Williams to the 53-man roster. The team waived rookie safety Duke Ihenacho on Tuesday, opening up a spot. The Broncos have a roster exemption this week to allow Williams to practice with the team as he comes back from two suspensions that totaled nine games.


Read more: Recent history has not been kind to Broncos' late-season efforts - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_21990557/recent-history-has-not-been-kind-broncos-late#ixzz2CDNyTGSD
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

baja
11-14-2012, 08:27 AM
Mike, I am starting to have visions of John Elway holding up the Lombardi Trophy, handing it to Manning and saying "This one's for Peyton." Should I book my Super Bowl trip now?
--James Johnson, Denver

I believe the prearranged tribute is John Elway holding up the Lombardi Trophy and saying: "This one's for Pat." For owner Pat Bowlen.

But as long as you can get some sort of refund or credit, James, I'd say, yes, the Broncos have a chance to be around for the NFL's season final week in New Orleans. The Las Vegas Hotel sports book came out with their odds adjusted through Sunday's games and the Broncos are tied as third favorites to win the Super Bowl. Here are the odds:


He better say, "This one's for Champ"

baja
11-14-2012, 08:50 AM
What a difference a quarter makes. There is a vast difference in perception and results when it comes to the two quarterbacks who will be on the field in Denver on Sunday.
Play word association and say "Peyton Manning." The compliments likely will follow as Manning has shown an amazing ability to come back from a season on the sideline to lead the Broncos back into the playoff hunt.
Say "Philip Rivers," and the discussion will be a little more pessimistic this season. His team is 4-5. His coach is on the hottest of seats. And Rivers is on track to set a career high for interceptions in a season.
And it basically comes down to how the two have handled the fourth quarter.
In the first through third quarters this

Denver QB Peyton Manning (Denver Post file)
season, Manning has completed 175-of-244 passes (71.7 percent) for 2,054 yards to go with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.
In the first through third quarters this season, Rivers has completed 153-of-219 passes (69.9 percent) for 1,725 yards to go with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Then there is the fourth quarter. Manning has the second-highest, fourth-quarter passer rating in the league behind Jay Cutler, and Cutler has thrown 35 fewer fourth-quarter passes than Manning.

Manning has been virtually unstoppable in the final 15 minutes this season, having completed 55-of-86 passes (64 percent) for 651 yards to go with nine touchdowns (42.9 percent of his season total) and no interceptions.
The Broncos have three comeback victories because of it, including the improbable victory in San Diego when Denver trailed 24-0 at halftime. Playoff seasons are made of such performances, when any team, no matter the resume, will get pushed to the edge at some point.
Rivers is 33rd in the league in fourth-quarter passer rating (56.5) or last among the league's starters. Both Arizona quarterbacks, John Skelton and Kevin Kolb, are ahead of him on the list.





Read more: Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers separated by fourth-quarter performances - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_21988866/peyton-manning-philip-rivers-separated-by-fourth-quarter#ixzz2CDTuhasF
Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

bronco militia
11-14-2012, 08:51 AM
...and we don't have the Mastermind

....and Josh Mcdaniels

bronco militia
11-14-2012, 08:51 AM
....and Tebow

Rohirrim
11-14-2012, 09:06 AM
This is a completely different team. We've been watching the evolution this season. It started out rough. Different elements were not working together. From game to game, we've watched them come together, offense, defense and ST. They've built up the confidence, bit by bit. Now, the engine is starting to hum. The tire selection is correct. The chassis is tuned. The driver is in control. Now it's just a matter of getting out on the track and opening up the throttle. ;D

baja
11-14-2012, 09:09 AM
....and Josh Mcdaniels

Absolutely!

baja
11-14-2012, 09:12 AM
This is a completely different team. We've been watching the evolution this season. It started out rough. Different elements were not working together. From game to game, we've watched them come together, offense, defense and ST. They've built up the confidence, bit by bit. Now, the engine is starting to hum. The tire selection is correct. The chassis is tuned. The driver is in control. Now it's just a matter of getting out on the track and opening up the throttle. ;D

Yes but it is still a defense based on speed, populated by either young or old players.

As the season wears on speed becomes less a factor as the speed players tend to wear down more that the power players and the weather turns wintery.

The rookies often time the rookie wall and the old vets wear out.
In this regard the player personal are similar the the late season fade teams of past years.

baja
11-14-2012, 09:15 AM
....and Tebow

OK that too ;D

Maybe it's the altitude ;D

Beantown Bronco
11-14-2012, 09:16 AM
If we go on any kind of losing streak with the upcoming cupcake schedule we have, that would be disastrous. I know there are no gimme games in the NFL, but we've got a bunch that are as close to that as you can get.

baja
11-14-2012, 09:20 AM
If we go on any kind of losing streak with the upcoming cupcake schedule we have, that would be disastrous. I know there are no gimme games in the NFL, but we've got a bunch that are as close to that as you can get.


I know. Just pointing out the similarities to the fading defenses

Rohirrim
11-14-2012, 09:23 AM
Yes but it is still a defense based on speed, populated by either young or old players.

As the season wears on speed becomes less a factor as the speed players tend to wear down more that the power players and the weather turns wintery.

The rookies often time the rookie wall and the old vets wear out.
In this regard the player personal are similar the the late season fade teams of past years.

The emotions of being on a winning team fix that. Don't forget, winning solves everything. It's a drug. ;D

baja
11-14-2012, 09:26 AM
The emotions of being on a winning team fix that. Don't forget, winning solves everything. It's a drug. ;D

STRONG POINT ;D

That's what I'm counting on too.

HILife
11-14-2012, 09:28 AM
Mike, I am starting to have visions of John Elway holding up the Lombardi Trophy, handing it to Manning and saying "This one's for Peyton." Should I book my Super Bowl trip now?
--James Johnson, Denver

I believe the prearranged tribute is John Elway holding up the Lombardi Trophy and saying: "This one's for Pat." For owner Pat Bowlen.

But as long as you can get some sort of refund or credit, James, I'd say, yes, the Broncos have a chance to be around for the NFL's season final week in New Orleans. The Las Vegas Hotel sports book came out with their odds adjusted through Sunday's games and the Broncos are tied as third favorites to win the Super Bowl. Here are the odds:


He better say, "This one's for Champ"

I think you mean.

"This one for all the fans that had to sit through the Josh McDaniel era!"

baja
11-14-2012, 09:33 AM
Well they're all for the fans but if you are going to single out one person it should be the long suffering Champ who played at a high level every single game, even when many of his defensive team mates quit.

Kaylore
11-14-2012, 09:38 AM
I'll play devil's advocate here since Baja clearly needs someone to post in this thread.

Fox's record for the month of November is 18-21 and for December is 26-17. That's an average of 44-38, just slightly above average. I will say last season Fox was 4-0 in November, bucking his usual trend of 1-3 Novembers followed up by 3-1 Decembers (he went to the Coughlin school of coaching, remember)

Manning, on the other hand, is 40-19 in November and 37-19 in December.

Going back six years, I found that it wasn't November that was bad, where we are 15-12 (not awesome, but not terrible) but actually December that kills us where we are 8-19. When you consider some of the events that happened in December; spygate II, blowing the three game lead on the Chargers, and even Tebow magic fizzling late last season, it's clear that December is the month with the bad juju. We'll see how we handle it. I agree our team looks more portable and doesn't feel like we'll fold, but any given Sunday...

Regardless, we have a coach and a QB who usually do better in December, so we'll see what happens. Coach Fox is not a gimmicky coach. He doesn't fool you with scheme and just focuses on fundamentals. By the end of the season when all the tricks are played out and nobody's fooled by anything anymore, his style of football does better. I'm not super confident, but I'm not as worried as I normally am.

baja
11-14-2012, 09:45 AM
I'll play devil's advocate here since Baja clearly needs someone to post in this thread.

Fox's record for the month of November is 18-21 and for December is 26-17. That's an average of 44-38, just slightly above average. I will say last season Fox was 4-0 in November, bucking his usual trend of 1-3 Novembers followed up by 3-1 Decembers (he went to the Coughlin school of coaching, remember)

Manning, on the other hand, is 40-19 in November and 37-19 in December.

Going back six years, I found that it wasn't November that was bad, where we are 15-12 (not awesome, but not terrible) but actually December that kills us where we are 8-19. When you consider some of the events that happened in December; spygate II, blowing the three game lead on the Chargers, and even Tebow magic fizzling late last season, it's clear that December is the month with the bad juju. We'll see how we handle it. I agree our team looks more portable and doesn't feel like we'll fold, but any given Sunday...

Regardless, we have a coach and a QB who usually do better in December, so we'll see what happens. Coach Fox is not a gimmicky coach. He doesn't fool you with scheme and just focuses on fundamentals. By the end of the season when all the tricks are played out and nobody's fooled by anything anymore, his style of football does better. I'm not super confident, but I'm not as worried as I normally am.

No I don't. I'm doing a good job all by myself.

Good points on Fox. I feel better now. ;D




Lots of free time in semi retirement. my other option is exercise that sounds too much like work.

Besides I ran out of Colon Blow last week.

Kaylore
11-14-2012, 09:48 AM
Mmmm Colon Blow...

Requiem
11-14-2012, 09:49 AM
Broncos smoother than Ismail with fish scale flippin' off the Peter Pan. If you haven't realized it yet, we are winning the Super Bowl. I'm not kidding.

DENVERDUI55
11-14-2012, 09:50 AM
We have folded up like a cheap tent because of the talent void past couple years.

Kaylore
11-14-2012, 08:56 PM
I hope that's why.

lonestar
11-14-2012, 11:19 PM
...and we don't have the Mastermind

:thumbs: on this we agree.

lonestar
11-15-2012, 12:41 AM
Yes but it is still a defense based on speed, populated by either young or old players.

As the season wears on speed becomes less a factor as the speed players tend to wear down more that the power players and the weather turns wintery.

The rookies often time the rookie wall and the old vets wear out.
In this regard the player personal are similar the the late season fade teams of past years.

I saw it as having light weight ,fast players in the past.

Starting the year at 285 pounds for a LOS guy on either side by this late in the year there is little chance of still being your starting weight. So now your at 270-75 at best those bigger to start out with guys are now heavier and able to dominate that LOS.. You just wear down and less you weigh the more toll it takes on you. Having a 340 pound guy as DT or mostly NT coming at you week after week got to break you down.
You hold the blocks for less time, you do not get the full block.

Now we have better conditioned guys that are heavier on the out set taking less abuse all year becuase they match up better, they are stronger going into the season.
I'd guess that next year with a full year of offseason and conditioning most of the OL will be 5-15 pounds more muscled up.
Which then will improve the run and pass protect.

Old Dude
11-15-2012, 07:51 AM
I think the late season drop-off is a more recent phenomena and there are some specific reasons why it happened each year.

First, let's look at the post-Elway era from 2000-2005:

2000 11-5. Final 6: 5-1 (finished very strong)
2001 7-9. Final 6: 3-3 (finished slightly better than start)
2002 9-7. Final 6: 2-4 (below average for season)
2003 10-6 Final 6: 4-2 (finished slightly better than start)
2004 10-6 Final 6: 3-3 (below average for season)
2005: 13-3 Final 6: 5-1 (finished slightly better than start)

Overall: 60-36 (.625) Final 6: 22-14 (.611)

Not really much of a difference.

Since then:

2006: 9-7 Final 6: 2-4 Al Wilson injured December 3; Rookie Cutler replaces Plummer
2007: 7-9 Final 6: 2-4 Meh.
2008: 8-8 Final 6: 2-4 by season’s end, 7 running backs on injured reserve
2009: 8-8 Final 6: 2-4 soft defensive middle wore down
2010: 4-12 Final 6: 1-5 Spygate; McD fired, horrid defense all year
2011: 8-8 Final 6: 3-3 Tebow rollercoaster

It's been a "trend," but there have been plenty of reasons for it.

Kaylore
11-15-2012, 08:06 AM
I'm beginning to worry a feeling of arrogance is spreading. A lot of talking heads are picking us as one of the best teams in the NFL and to finish with a bye. I just hope they don't take things for granted. San Diego is going to give us a good shot this week. Rivers play well here. We need to treat this game like a chance to win the division, because it really would do more for that cause than any other game on the schedule outside of the final game to clinch it.

Kid A
11-15-2012, 08:17 AM
I'm beginning to worry a feeling of arrogance is spreading. A lot of talking heads are picking us as one of the best teams in the NFL and to finish with a bye. I just hope they don't take things for granted. San Diego is going to give us a good shot this week. Rivers play well here. We need to treat this game like a chance to win the division, because it really would do more for that cause than any other game on the schedule outside of the final game to clinch it.

I've had to check myself a couple times this week. Old Dude's rundown of the late season collapses was a good explanation of why they happened, but I would still think after 6 straight years of this Denver fans would be cautious in their optimism.

Win this week and we have a virtual 4 game lead in the West. Then talk about aiming for the bye makes some sense.

Lose and it's a 1 game lead with Tampa and Baltimore looming as legitimate tests and a decade of bad history starting to weigh heavy...

Old Dude
11-15-2012, 08:24 AM
I agree this week is key.

The Chargers have their backs against the wall. Turner's job is probably at stake. I wouldn't expect him to get fired immediately, but if the Bolts drop to 4-6, they have very little hope of making the playoffs, and he'll be gone at the end of the year.

If Denver wins, they could probably take the division with .500 ball down the stretch against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. I wouldn't expect them to "let up" but it would be nice to reduce the pressure for a change.

I can't blame fans for being excited. It's been a long, long time since this team was in such good shape injury-wise at this stage of the season, with offense, defense and special teams all performing in the top ten of most categories.

Of course, one cheap hit on Manning and it's all over.

lonestar
11-15-2012, 08:37 AM
I'm beginning to worry a feeling of arrogance is spreading. A lot of talking heads are picking us as one of the best teams in the NFL and to finish with a bye. I just hope they don't take things for granted. San Diego is going to give us a good shot this week. Rivers play well here. We need to treat this game like a chance to win the division, because it really would do more for that cause than any other game on the schedule outside of the final game to clinch it.
:thumbs:
It is a young team overall. Thus inconsistent to start with, I'm hoping that the kiddies do not start thinking they are as good as the talking heads say they are.

I know as an ex player that it is hard to be mentally sharpe every game. When You add in those nagging injuries it is hard to play at the level you need to win it all.

I'm hoping that the super veterans in Manning/Bailey can keep them grounded.

There are several games coming up that scare me SAN, KC twice and TPA. All f which we should win but could be trap games. Especially San since we whooped up on them in the second half, it is easy for the kiddies to think they are going lie down again for us.

If anything like the Houckli game year they used that loss as motivation to beat the snot out of us later that year.

lonestar
11-15-2012, 08:41 AM
Let me add the BAL game is more likely a loss iirc we play there and over the years east coast games have mostly been losers for not only us, but all west coast teams.