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View Full Version : AFC Seeding - the quest for a first round bye


mwill07
11-12-2012, 08:34 AM
*knock on wood*, as this thread is about projecting future wins...

I don't think I'm jumping the gun in thinking the AFCW race is all but over, or at least it should be after this week. With a win vs SD, Denver would have a 3 game lead + tie breaker, and a cake schedule.

Let's talk about securing the 1st round bye. Right now, Baltimore, Houston, and NE are all ahead of us - we need to pass two of them for the bye.

Baltimore first. They are a game ahead of us, and play Pittsburgh twice, us, and the Giants. IMO, it comes down to 12/16 - assuming both Denver and Baltimore win out and Denver wins that game, we will have the same record, but we will have the head to head victory and therefore the tie-breaker. If Baltimore wins, it will be very difficult to beat them out for the bye - they will have better head 2 head, and tie-breaker.

NE obviously has the tie-breaker over us, and the same 6-3 record. They have to lose one more than we do, that much is clear. They win out, they will be ahead of us. Remaining games vs Indy, Miami (x2), Houston and SF. Houston and SF are both probably better teams, but these games are both night games, in Foxboro, and at night. This will be very interesting.

vs Houston - they have a 2 game lead, and own the tie-breaker, so essentially a 3 game lead. I don't see them losing 3 out of their last seven, with a schedule including Jac, Ten, Min, Det, and Indy twice.

Here is, IMO, the most likely scenario for Denver to secure a 1st round bye:

1. Den wins out, including 12/16 vs Baltimore.
2. NE must lose one or more game, at any time.

For every Denver loss, NE & Baltimore must lose an additional game. That's it. This is a very plausible scenario.

So yeah...12/16 will be an extremely important date, in terms of sorting out the AFC playoff picture. Denver @ Baltimore, SF @ NE, IND @ HOU. That's probably the date this all comes into focus. Bottom line - there will be reason for Broncos to keep their foot on the gas the rest of the way. 1st round bye means a max of one road playoff game - I'd much rather see NE come to Denver in January than vice versa.

Pick Six
11-12-2012, 09:06 AM
Yes, I don't see us catching Houston. As you said, the #2 seed is very possible. We have the easiest "back 9" schedule, in the NFL. We just need to stay on course...

ZONA
11-12-2012, 09:08 AM
You never know but I agree, I think Houston will end up the #1 seed. If only Chicago had any kind of real offense, sheesh.

The Ravens game is going to be HUGE, we all know that.

But right now I'm not looking that far ahead. All I want right now is to not lose any more key players to injury and beat the Chugs this week.

spdirty
11-12-2012, 09:26 AM
Win out and we get the 2 seed...that's all there is to it.

mwill07
11-12-2012, 09:33 AM
Win out and we get the 2 seed...that's all there is to it.

no, NE needs to lose at least one.

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-12-2012, 10:13 AM
no, NE needs to lose at least one.

What if the texans or ravens lose a few games? There's a few scenarios when it's this far out. A couple weeks from now and it'll be a bit easier to dissect

DENVERDUI55
11-12-2012, 10:18 AM
We have to win out in my opinion which I think is highly unlikely. I think NE will drop one more at least.

Greatspirits
11-12-2012, 10:20 AM
Not even thinking about any of that! We just need to worry about beating SD this Sunday.

Beantown Bronco
11-12-2012, 10:24 AM
What if the texans or ravens lose a few games? There's a few scenarios when it's this far out. A couple weeks from now and it'll be a bit easier to dissect

Yes, but when someone like spdirty states "Win out and we get the 2 seed...that's all there is to it", he is implying that we control our own destiny. We don't.....not yet, at least. There is at least one possible scenario where us winning out still has us earning the #3 seed.

Beantown Bronco
11-12-2012, 10:25 AM
Not even thinking about any of that! We just need to worry about beating SD this Sunday.

We are not the team. We are just fans. We can look as far ahead as we want.

Drunken.Broncoholic
11-12-2012, 10:38 AM
Yes, but when someone like spdirty states "Win out and we get the 2 seed...that's all there is to it", he is implying that we control our own destiny. We don't.....not yet, at least. There is at least one possible scenario where us winning out still has us earning the #3 seed.

I seeee. I must've overlooked his post. Haha

MagicHef
11-12-2012, 10:43 AM
No one will catch the Texans. I think though, that we and the Steelers will catch the Patriots and the Ravens. The Patriots still have to play the Texans and 49ers, and the Ravens have to play us, Steelers twice, Giants, Chargers, and Bengals. They may have the hardest remaining schedule in the league.

Bacchus
11-12-2012, 11:00 AM
If the season ended today the Colts would travel to Denver...... How interesting a game would that be?

Beantown Bronco
11-12-2012, 11:06 AM
If the season ended today the Colts would travel to Denver...... How interesting a game would that be?

The league would cream all over itself with the back stories if the following happened:

WC: Indy vs Denver......Manning vs Luck
Division: Denver vs New England....Manning vs Brady
AFC Champ: Denver vs Houston....Elway vs Kubiak

SB: Denver vs NY.....Manning vs Manning

I'm tearing up a little just thinking about it.

g6matty
11-12-2012, 11:13 AM
You never know but I agree, I think Houston will end up the #1 seed. If only Chicago had any kind of real offense, sheesh.

The Ravens game is going to be HUGE, we all know that.

But right now I'm not looking that far ahead. All I want right now is to not lose any more key players to injury and beat the Chugs this week.

cutler to marshall is the most deadly combination in the NFL

2KBack
11-12-2012, 11:31 AM
cutler to marshall is the most deadly combination in the NFL

Manning to DT was better based on common opponents

Pick Six
11-12-2012, 12:10 PM
The league would cream all over itself with the back stories if the following happened:

WC: Indy vs Denver......Manning vs Luck
Division: Denver vs New England....Manning vs Brady
AFC Champ: Denver vs Houston....Elway vs Kubiak

SB: Denver vs NY.....Manning vs Manning

I'm tearing up a little just thinking about it.

If yesterday's Giants game is any indication, they aren't getting to the Big Game. We'll see...

Beantown Bronco
11-12-2012, 12:12 PM
If yesterday's Giants game is any indication, they aren't getting to the Big Game. We'll see...

It's not. Last year around this time the Giants were busy losing to the bottom feeder Redskins.....for the 2nd time.

TheChamp24
11-12-2012, 12:26 PM
Yeah, only 9 games played, no lock yet, just....no.

A lot of things have to happen for us to get that #2 seed.

Vegas_Bronco
11-12-2012, 12:36 PM
Stay calm.

- signed, #24

broncocalijohn
11-12-2012, 01:19 PM
WIth NE struggling a lot more when we played them, who else thinks we have a better chance now to revenge our losses? I just think we have to get that #2 seed. If NE can drop to the #4 seed and play Houston during the semis, we might have a home field advantage like 2005. Denver just needs to keep winning and Ravens is now a must win for this all to happen.

Bacchus
11-12-2012, 01:50 PM
The league would cream all over itself with the back stories if the following happened:

WC: Indy vs Denver......Manning vs Luck
Division: Denver vs New England....Manning vs Brady
AFC Champ: Denver vs Houston....Elway vs Kubiak

SB: Denver vs NY.....Manning vs Manning

I'm tearing up a little just thinking about it.

Take out NY and insert Atlanta and we can call it the Revenge Tour 2012! Or The Revenge Tour Part 2

Rock Chalk
11-12-2012, 02:00 PM
Denver has to win out. Anything else and a first round bye is out of the question.

If Denver wins out, they will get no worse than a 3 seed.

To get a 2 seed, New England has to lose one of their remaining 7 games. The Houston game looks brutal for them. Houston just went and pllayed in some miserable conditions and got a victory. Granted, Chicago has no offense but Houston's defense is more than capable of holding Brady and company to under 24 points. Meanwhile, New England's sieve for a defense will get shredded by Houston. But regardless of whether or not they beat or lose to Houston, New England does not have a cakewalk down the stretch.

vs Indy
@ NY Jets
@ Miami
Houston
SF (On short week)
@ Jax
Miami

Clearly, their biggest risk of losing is the Houston and SF games, but @ Miami and Indy may also be games they can drop. Odds of NE losing 1+ games? 80%

Now, to get the one seed, we'd need a miracle. Houston's schedule isn't a who's who of NFL powerhouses. Its more like a bunch of teams that suck.
Jax
@ Detroit
@ Tennessee
@ New England (Ok, this is a 3 game road stretch, they could drop one of these)
Indy
Minnesota
@ Indy

Odds of Houston losing 4 of their last 7? 1%

If Denver does not win out, we will be playing 4 playoff games this year instead of 3. No worries, 3 or 4, we get the Lombardi.

Beantown Bronco
11-12-2012, 02:21 PM
Denver has to win out. Anything else and a first round bye is out of the question.

Depends on who that one loss is to IMO. If it's Baltimore, I agree. Anyone else? The door is still open a little.

MagicHef
11-12-2012, 03:05 PM
Depends on who that one loss is to IMO. If it's Baltimore, I agree. Anyone else? The door is still open a little.

We could lose to Baltimore and still have a chance at getting a first round bye. Say BAL and PIT split their 2 games, PIT wins out otherwise. If we win out except the BAL game, we are tied with PIT but have the tiebreaker. Baltimore then has to play the Giants, Chargers (away), Bengals (away), Redskins (away). If they drop 2, we're ahead. The Patriots, similarly, have to play the 49ers, Texans, and Jets (away). If they drop 2, we're ahead.

Maybe not likely that all of that will happen, but possible.

If we do win out, we only have to worry about the Patriots also winning out, and they have to play a much harder schedule.

Atwater His Ass
11-12-2012, 04:00 PM
Have a reasonable chance to out pace NE and BAL. Unlikely to catch HOU.