Redskins loss = Romney will win

[Kaylore]

If they lose, so does the incumbant, Right?

Ok, we all know that's just a fun circumstance. I'm personally thinking Romney wins the popular but loses the electoral college. That said, I'd much the Redskins won this weekend if I'm Obama!;D

[Rohirrim]

If they lose, so does the incumbant, Right?

Ok, we all know that's just a fun circumstance. I'm personally thinking Romney wins the popular but loses the electoral college. That said, I'd much the Redskins won this weekend if I'm Obama!;D

Naw. I think Obama will take the popular vote too. For once, I have to agree with Karl Rove, that Hurricane Sandy might have sunk Romney's last chance. Why? Rove argued that it allowed Obama to step out of campaign mode and into president mode while Romney was pushed to the sidelines. And the applause from Chris Christie probably didn't help either. I wonder if they'll invite him to any Republican events next year? :rofl:

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Naw. I think Obama will take the popular vote too. For once, I have to agree with Karl Rove, that Hurricane Sandy might have sunk Romney's last chance. Why? Rove argued that it allowed Obama to step out of campaign mode and into president mode while Romney was pushed to the sidelines. And the applause from Chris Christie probably didn't help either. I wonder if they'll invite him to any Republican events next year? :rofl:

RobMe's phony "storm relief" photo op embarrassment didn't help him either.

Republicans are funny when they try to pretend they give a f_ck about anyone but themselves.

[SoCalBronco]

Polling numbers over the weekend are very interesting. I don't have a dog in this fight because I voted for Huntsman, so I'd like to think I'm a reasonably objective observer (even though I am a moderate Republican).

There appears to be significant movement towards Obama in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. He is getting some indies breaking his way. Multiple polls showing Romney's lead among Indies dwindling. Most of the polling today is either tied (CNN, Battleground, Rasmussen) or Obama +3 (PPP, Pew). PPP is the Democratic version of Rasmussen, although I might add that Tom Jensen is pretty well respected. What I find more interesting is PEW. They changed their turnout model from R+4 in early October to D+5 in their last sampling. It is unclear if this is done because they think the contours of the expected electorate will change or what. I noticed Rasmussen also changed his sampling model from an R+1 to a D+3 (he is now showing it as tied). It will be very interesting to see Gallup's final poll tomorrow. I suspect it will show a tighter race than Romney 51-46 (where they last were before the Hurricane), but what I am most interested to see is 1) whethre they still believe their likely voter screen is accurate and 2) how they break down independents.

This will be very interesting. Over at electrionprojection (Disclaimer: It is a right of center site, but he does pretty good analytical work), his conclusion is simply that who wins depends on the modeling that is used.

IMO, we will have a good idea what will happen once we see the national exit polling data for the turnout models between R, D and I. But it does seem Obama has a lead right now, albeit slight.

[Kid A]

Sorry, this election was already decided Saturday...though Obama had home field advantage:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/kenya-bull-fight-obama-trounces-romney-17633120#.UJcvZWk5xe8

If the U.S. presidential election were to be determined by a bull fight in Kenya then President Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney.

On Saturday villagers from western Kenya town of Khayega held a bull fighting contest between a 900 pound (410 kilogram) black bull they named Obama and a black and white 1,000 pound (460kg) bull they named Mitt Romney. Both are cattle breeds indigenous to Kenya.

Despite being smaller in size, Obama was the overwhelming favorite having won six of his last fights and he did not disappoint. After close to half an hour the bulls were separated and Obama was declared winner. Happy villagers burst onto the streets in song and dance rejoicing the victory, some carrying placards reading "Obama top most!" while others reading "Romney Can't!"

[Kaylore]

I think generally the president gets is approval in votes. That's a pretty steady trend. The only time the Skins game didn't predict the outcome correctly was in 2004, and Obama's numbers are fairly similar to Bush's at that time and he won both.

The one thing that give me hope Obama will lose is this election more people identify themselves as Republican than Democrat and Republican engagement is higher than Democrat for the first time as well. I was thinking with independents leaning Romney so heavily we had a shot, but now that's evening out. It will still be close. With so few people able to, or willing to vote on the blue cost, that will bring the total votes down and so I think Romney will win the popular and lose the electoral vote. Could be wrong, but it seems trending that way for sure.

[Rohirrim]

The trends are looking very bad for Romney over here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

A new PPP poll (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TrackingPoll_113.pdf) released late yesterday has President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50% to 47% nationally. This is the first lead of 3 points either candidate has had for weeks. Obama led in all three days of the poll (Nov. 1-3). His approval rating is now positive (48% to 47%). A week ago PPP found him to be deep under water (44% to 52%) so this is a 9-point gain in a week for Obama.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Thanks to the Supreme Court, Early Voting Is Still Taking Place in Ohio (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html#item-2)

Earlier this year, the Republican Secretary of State in Ohio, Jon Husted, decided to stop early voting on the weekend before the election (i.e., now) except for military families. The Democrats took him to court and ultimately the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that there was no basis in law to allow one group to have more voting time than everyone else.

Yesterday large numbers of Ohioans voted but the real action is today, when Democrats have chartered buses to take voters directly from churches to polling places. Already 1.6 million people have voted (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/ohioans-line-up-for-early-voting-in-the-battleground-state/2012/11/03/166be598-25e7-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_story.html?hpid=z1) in Ohio, which puts the state on track to top the 2008 early voting total, even though there are nine fewer voting days this year.

Early voting is important for the Democrats in Ohio because black voters, who favor Obama about 95% to 5%, used early voting at a rate 26 times that of white voters. This effect is due to the fact that many blacks have inflexible job schedules and can't take off time on Tuesdays to vote. A professional, like a lawyer, doctor, or architect, can reserve a few hours in advance on his or her election day agenda for voting, but a bus driver or nurse can't do that.

[TonyR]

...I think Romney will win the popular and lose the electoral vote. Could be wrong, but it seems trending that way for sure.

Sam Wang at Princeton has the odds of a popular vote/electoral vote mismatch at only 9%, and Romney's odds of winning the popular vote at only 6% (16-1 against).

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/03/how-likely-is-a-popular-voteelectoral-vote-mismatch/#more-8258

[Kid A]

It really looked like a split was possible for a while, but the state polls have held pretty steady these last couple weeks while the national polls have started to move to match them—that is a roughly 2pt lead for Obama. If Romney outperforms national polls, the same error would likely apply to state polling, and he would win both.

[24champ]

Karl Rove indicated this morning that Romney is likely to win Ohio. Democrats just won't have the same numbers as they did in 2008 and Romney has a large lead among independents.

My prediction is the popular vote will be narrow but it will be a wide gap in the electoral vote tally. Romney will surpass the 270 EC needed.

[BroncoInferno]

Karl Rove indicated this morning that Romney is likely to win Ohio.

Because for objective, non-biased analysis, Karl Rove is the go-to source Uhh C'mon, champ.

[DAN_BRONCO_FAN]

If they lose, so does the incumbant, Right?

Ok, we all know that's just a fun circumstance. I'm personally thinking Romney wins the popular but loses the electoral college. That said, I'd much the Redskins won this weekend if I'm Obama!;D

not quite true thar
http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/redskins.asp
they got one wrong back in 2004 they lost at home but bush won over kerry

[SoCalBronco]

My prediction is Obama by 2 nationally.....Obama with 280-300 EVs. There has been significant movement to Obama this weekend. Romney's most favorable polls (Rays and Gallup) have him up just 1. Gallup had a 5 point lead before the storm.

Romney can still win but it would require his turnout model being right on the nose.

[DAN_BRONCO_FAN]

Vote Elway/Manning this Tuesday :)

[24champ]

My prediction is Obama by 2 nationally.....Obama with 280-300 EVs. There has been significant movement to Obama this weekend. Romney's most favorable polls (Rays and Gallup) have him up just 1. Gallup had a 5 point lead before the storm.

Romney can still win but it would require his turnout model being right on the nose.

That's only if Obama can get the same record turnout he did in 2008, and that's not likely with his campaign running around to Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire etc. States that he won by a decent margin in 2008.

Every single poll has Obama below 50 percent. That is not good news for an incumbent and also not good news for Obama losing the independent vote by double digits. CNN had their final polling data out and shows Romney up 22 percent with independents. Now, you can't possibly tell me Obama will win if those numbers are true.

The only thing that has me worried is your boy Jay Cutler backing Romney.:wave:

Appearing on his weekly segment of the "Jay Cutler Show" on WMVP-AM 1000 on Monday, the Bears quarterback was asked by co-host Tom Waddle about his voting preference: Mitt Romney or Barack Obama.

"That's a touchy subject," Cutler said initially. "Yeah, I have been following the debates and everything. I do live in Tennessee. I'm voting for Mitt (Romney) this election season."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/click/2012/11/chicago-bears-qb-backs-romney-148519.html

[SoCalBronco]

That's only if Obama can get the same record turnout he did in 2008, and that's not likely with his campaign running around to Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire etc. States that he won by a decent margin in 2008.

Every single poll has Obama below 50 percent. That is not good news for an incumbent and also not good news for Obama losing the independent vote by double digits. CNN had their final polling data out and shows Romney up 22 percent with independents. Now, you can't possibly tell me Obama will win if those numbers are true.

The only thing that has me worried is your boy Jay Cutler backing Romney.:wave:



http://www.politico.com/blogs/click/2012/11/chicago-bears-qb-backs-romney-148519.html

BTW, if Mitt wins tomorrow, I'm going to claim it was due to the Cutler endorsement reversing the effect of the storm. :) And yes, he is that important. Jay= stud.

Seriously, I think your boy has a tough hill to climb, but as always it will depend on the turnout models. If they keep it to D+2 or below, they can win it.

Here's what I'm thinking (at D+3 turnout, which I think is the most reasonable, I'm not convinced that the October Gallup and Rasmussen model is realistic, i.e. EVEN or R+):
NH- Obama by 2
VA- Romney by 2
NC- Romney by 6
FL- Romney by 3
OH- Obama by 2
WI- Obama by 2
IA- Obama by 1
CO- Romney by 2
NV- Obama by 3
PA- Obama by 3
MN- Obama by 5
MI- Obama by 6

[StugotsIII]

Many people in the know are calling this for Romney and big...due to the democrat heaving polling used by many of the pollsters out there.

[houghtam]

Many people in the know are calling this for Romney and big...due to the democrat heaving polling used by many of the pollsters out there.

I'm aware that by "democrat heaving polling" (sic), you mean "not only calling land lines", but I'm curious as to what you mean by "people in the know".

[Rohirrim]

Have fun with this. ;D
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-nytimes

[Kaylore]

Have fun with this. ;D
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-nytimes

That's very cool.

They did leave out Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think Romney has a small chance to steal one of those. If he does, Ohio is irrelevant.

[Rohirrim]

That's very cool.

They did leave out Michigan and Pennsylvania. I think Romney has a small chance to steal one of those. If he does, Ohio is irrelevant.

In his final estimate, Nate Silver has both states at 90% likely to go Obama. If Romney's pinning his hopes on one of those, I'm afraid he'll be SOL.

[razorwire77]

I'm aware that by "democrat heaving polling" (sic), you mean "not only calling land lines", but I'm curious as to what you mean by "people in the know".

Dick Morris.

[Rohirrim]

538's final call has Obama at 92% chance at winning. Romney at 8%. In electoral votes, they have Obama at 315 and Romney at 222.8. I'll be interested to see how close they are, or not.

[razorwire77]

Even if Nate is off (which at this point I doubt), I tend to look at where the money is going.

Intrade has Obama at 67 percent.

Nearly every online gambling site has Obama getting reelected at anywhere from 65-80 percent.

[Pseudofool]

Electoral landslide for Obama. I think he wins two of Virginia, NC, FL to go along with the rest of the swing states. I see a popular vote around 3 or 4 points for Obama. If it's any closer than that, Romney really deserves a lot of credit because it certainly didn't look good before the first debate.

[Pseudofool]

Have fun with this. ;D
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=tw-nytimesRomney can win FL, Oh, NC, and Va and still lose. Yipes.

[razorwire77]

Electoral landslide for Obama. I think he wins two of Virginia, NC, FL to go along with the rest of the swing states. I see a popular vote around 3 or 4 points for Obama. If it's any closer than that, Romney really deserves a lot of credit because it certainly didn't look good before the first debate.

I think the real surprise of the night is going to be when Obama takes Florida, in addition to Ohio and Virginia.

The electoral college route will be on at that point.

The popular vote will be close, but my guess is Obama takes it by roughly 1.5 percent.

All in all, a relatively close election, but not nearly the down the stretch horse race that the MSM is shoving down everybody's throat.

[Rohirrim]

I think the real surprise of the night is going to be when Obama takes Florida, in addition to Ohio and Virginia.

The electoral college route will be on at that point.

The popular vote will be close, but my guess is Obama takes it by roughly 1.5 percent.

All in all, a relatively close election, but not nearly the down the stretch horse race that the MSM is shoving down everybody's throat.

If Ohio gets called early for Obama, they can start dressing up the fat lady.

[24champ]

Nate Silver and Morris are out to lunch.

Neither candidate will get 325 or over in EV.

[BroncoBeavis]

This place is gonna be epic tomorrow night when the stormin Mormon gives his victory speech.

[lonestar]

I think the real surprise of the night is going to be when Obama takes Florida, in addition to Ohio and Virginia.

The electoral college route will be on at that point.

The popular vote will be close, but my guess is Obama takes it by roughly 1.5 percent.

All in all, a relatively close election, but not nearly the down the stretch horse race that the MSM is shoving down everybody's throat.

Wow thinking again. Please do not tax yourself.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

From the only source (other than breitbart.com) wingnuts trust... :D

Fox Predicts Obama Victory

http://samuel-warde.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Fox-Predicts-Obama-Victory-SM.jpg (http://samuel-warde.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Fox-Predicts-Obama-Victory-SM.jpg)

Earlier today Fox News contributor Lanny Davis published a piece entitled “My prediction — Obama will, and should, win on Election Day”.

Davis cites three reasons Pres. Obama will win.

First, President Obama won the battle of messages and Romney lost.

Davis notes that Obama’s core message — “I did the best I could on the economy; we were in a deep hole and I’ve made some progress getting out of it” — was, in his opinion, a more credible and persuasive message than Romney’s message: “President Obama failed on the economy and I can succeed by way of tax cuts and less government regulation.”

Second, polls show that Obama remains the more likable of the two candidates.

In support, Davis points out that Mitt Romney enhanced his “unlikability throughout the Republican primaries. There was the incredible moment when even conservative Texas Gov. Rick Perry asked him to “have a heart” when Romney criticized Perry for allowing illegal immigrants to pay lower in-state tuition costs in Texas to go to a state university”.

Third, and “maybe most importantly, Barack Obama remains the change candidate who excites and inspires (inevitably, less so than in 2008) the younger generation of Americans. He leads in the polls substantially among that younger generation — by margins of 20 to 30 percent. They are America’s future”.

Davis breaks down his predicted voting results as follows:

Popular Vote
Obama — 50 percent
Romney — 49 percent
Obama — Electoral votes = 281
Romney — Electoral votes = 257
——————
OBAMA STATES — ELECTORAL VOTES

ST Solid States = 142
Likely —
Connecticut (7)
Maine (3)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Washington (12)
ST: 41
Lean
Maine CD2 (1)
Oregon (7)
Minnesota (10)
ST: 18
ST: TOTAL 201
Battleground states
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (!!!) (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10) (!!!)
Michigan (16)
ST: 80

Total electoral votes/Obama: 281

==========

ROMNEY STATES — ELECTORAL VOTES

ST: Solid 127 (including Nebraska 3 electoral votes)
Likely
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)
Nebraska (CD2) (1)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
ST: 50
Lean
Arizona (11)
Montana (3)
ST: 14
TOTAL 191
Battlegrounds
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
ST: 66

Total Electoral votes/Romney: 257

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/my-prediction-obama-will-and-should-win-on-election-day/#ixzz2BNvJdbdI

[lonestar]

This place is gonna be epic tomorrow night when the stormin Mormon gives his victory speech.

Not sure I even want to see them wailing about it being a fixed election. See you then. For awhile

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

This place is gonna be epic tomorrow night when the stormin Mormon gives his victory speech.

L0L! Ha!

In what parallel right-wing universe is this predicted to happen?

This post will be fun to bump, at any rate.

[lonestar]

From the only source (other than breitbart.com) wingnuts trust... :D

Fox Predicts Obama Victory

http://samuel-warde.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Fox-Predicts-Obama-Victory-SM.jpg (http://samuel-warde.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Fox-Predicts-Obama-Victory-SM.jpg)

Earlier today Fox News contributor Lanny Davis published a piece entitled “My prediction — Obama will, and should, win on Election Day”.

Davis cites three reasons Pres. Obama will win.

First, President Obama won the battle of messages and Romney lost.

Davis notes that Obama’s core message — “I did the best I could on the economy; we were in a deep hole and I’ve made some progress getting out of it” — was, in his opinion, a more credible and persuasive message than Romney’s message: “President Obama failed on the economy and I can succeed by way of tax cuts and less government regulation.”

Second, polls show that Obama remains the more likable of the two candidates.

In support, Davis points out that Mitt Romney enhanced his “unlikability throughout the Republican primaries. There was the incredible moment when even conservative Texas Gov. Rick Perry asked him to “have a heart” when Romney criticized Perry for allowing illegal immigrants to pay lower in-state tuition costs in Texas to go to a state university”.

Third, and “maybe most importantly, Barack Obama remains the change candidate who excites and inspires (inevitably, less so than in 2008) the younger generation of Americans. He leads in the polls substantially among that younger generation — by margins of 20 to 30 percent. They are America’s future”.

Davis breaks down his predicted voting results as follows:

Popular Vote
Obama — 50 percent
Romney — 49 percent
Obama — Electoral votes = 281
Romney — Electoral votes = 257
——————
OBAMA STATES — ELECTORAL VOTES

ST Solid States = 142
Likely —
Connecticut (7)
Maine (3)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
Washington (12)
ST: 41
Lean
Maine CD2 (1)
Oregon (7)
Minnesota (10)
ST: 18
ST: TOTAL 201
Battleground states
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (!!!) (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10) (!!!)
Michigan (16)
ST: 80

Total electoral votes/Obama: 281

==========

ROMNEY STATES — ELECTORAL VOTES

ST: Solid 127 (including Nebraska 3 electoral votes)
Likely
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)
Nebraska (CD2) (1)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
ST: 50
Lean
Arizona (11)
Montana (3)
ST: 14
TOTAL 191
Battlegrounds
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
ST: 66

Total Electoral votes/Romney: 257

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/05/my-prediction-obama-will-and-should-win-on-election-day/#ixzz2BNvJdbdI

Lanny Davis the left hand man of bill cliton. Sure I believe him back to IGGY. Not sure how I even saw this. I think the mods have modified my IGGY list.

Your way to dumb to waste my time reading.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Your(sic) way to dumb to waste my time reading.

Nothing like intelligence smack from a grown man who reads and writes at a fifth grade level. Ha!

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Lanny Davis the left hand man of bill cliton. Sure I believe...

Not surprisingly, you made no attempt to challenge Davis' arguments - you simply lobbed an ad hominem and ran.

Ditto head SOP.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Heads up for AZ folks...GOP fraud alert:

Robocalls from GOP give false voting locations to Democrats

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/aaMpVOjotI8?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Calls from Republican Congressman Jeff Flake’s campaign in Arizona are instructing Democratic voters to cast ballots at the wrong polling locations in yet another flagrant attempt at voter fraud.

[24champ]

L0L! Ha!

In what parallel right-wing universe is this predicted to happen?

This post will be fun to bump, at any rate.

Whats your prediction for tomorrow LABF? How do you see the EV breaking down?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Whats your prediction for tomorrow LABF? How do you see the EV breaking down?

See Ro's "Pick a Winna" thread.

[Jetland]

Many people in the know are calling this for Romney and big...due to the democrat heaving polling used by many of the pollsters out there.

do tell us more

[gunns]

This place is gonna be epic tomorrow night when the stormin Mormon gives his victory speech.

Gordon Gekko will be giving a concession speech and stormin off to obscurity.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Is Fox calling it for Romney? L0L.

[Rohirrim]

This place is gonna be epic tomorrow night when the stormin Mormon gives his victory speech.

Uhh

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

^

L0L!

Once again, America "just says no" to the regressive agenda. :thumbsup: