Right Wing Pulls Ads in Key "Battleground" States

[houghtam]

Rove, Koch Brothers Call it Quits in Pennsylvania

http://feliznavidad.newsvine.com/_news/2012/09/01/13606228-rove-koch-brothers-call-it-quits-in-pennsylvania

Conservatives for Mitt Romney pull ads off TV in Michigan, Pennsylvania

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/09/conservatives_for_mitt_romney.html

The Romney campaign has no ads buys scheduled in Wisconsin, Representative Paul Ryan's home state.

http://www.reachoutjobsearch.com/2012/09/romneyryan-and-gop-super-pacs-pull-ad.html

These were arguably never really battleground states to begin with, considering Michigan and Pennsylvania haven't voted Republican since 1988, and Wisconsin not since 1984. But without these states, Romney is certainly in dire trouble.

According to 270towin.com, without MI, PA AND WI, there are only 11 permutations which would allow Romney to win the election. All 11 include a Florida victory. Without a Florida victory, the Romney campaign CANNOT win the election without MI/PA/WI. In fact, half of the permutations involve Romney having to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina AND Virginia, in addition to winning one or two of Colorado (Obama currently leading in the polls), New Hampshire (only voted R once since 1988), Iowa (only voted R once since 1984) and Nevada (Obama currently leading in the polls).

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=xaH

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map/combinations.php?party=Republican&num_rem=79&st_remain=FL,OH,NC,VA,CO,IA,NV,NH&me=&ne=

[Blart]

Somehow I doubt they're low on money, they must be really hopeless in those states.

[peacepipe]

well,it could be,why spend money in a state that thats going to be rigged to favor romney.

[houghtam]

Somehow I doubt they're low on money, they must be really hopeless in those states.

My opinion is that the people supporting Romney are businessmen. Since it doesn't matter if you win a state by 1 point or 10 points, it also doesn't matter how much you lose it by. They know that their money won't change history or a huge poll deficit, so they're cutting their losses and putting money elsewhere. There is a huge ad campaign being rolled out in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

As the election gets closer, though, my prediction is that they'll find out that their candidate is not electable sometime in October, and the amount of spending will drop off dramatically. The rich guys funding his election bid don't want Obama in, but they won't continue to throw money at a losing cause. They'll refocus their efforts to lobbying and developing a better strategy and finding a better candidate to compete with Clinton/Patrick 2016.

Obama will win 310-224.

[Mecklomaniac]

Cool theories but....


Washington Post Romney-will-play-in-michigan-and-wisconsin (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/romney-will-play-in-michigan-and-wisconsin/2012/09/07/aa804e1a-f8e0-11e1-8b93-c4f4ab1c8d13_blog.html)

[Paladin]

H, sounds about right. I saw one such pro Romney ad in Colorado, and it was just an incredible affront to the intellignce of Colorado voters.

Nortice Ryan tryng to ursurp the weed vote? What a tool.

[houghtam]

sounds about right. I saw one such pro Romney ad in Colorado, and it was just an incredible affront to the intellignce of Colorado voters.

Nortice Ryan tryng to ursurp the weed vote? What a tool.

"Hey, the Republican candidate for Vice-President is saying he's going to do something the Democrats have been doing for a long time. I'm going to vote for him."

LOL

[Paladin]

Cool theories but....


Washington Post Romney-will-play-in-michigan-and-wisconsin (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/romney-will-play-in-michigan-and-wisconsin/2012/09/07/aa804e1a-f8e0-11e1-8b93-c4f4ab1c8d13_blog.html)

Cool dream, but that rag is a biased conservative mouthpiece, same as Faux News. They don't believe that man landed on teh moon.....

[houghtam]

Cool theories but....


Washington Post Romney-will-play-in-michigan-and-wisconsin (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/romney-will-play-in-michigan-and-wisconsin/2012/09/07/aa804e1a-f8e0-11e1-8b93-c4f4ab1c8d13_blog.html)

Yep, and a 2-13 team says they're going to try really hard to win that 3rd game the last game of the season.

[Mecklomaniac]

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell warned the state's Democratic delegates not to "rest on your laurels" just because Pennsylvania is being widely cited as a guaranteed win for President Obama.


"Don't be fooled," Rendell said at the morning breakfast meeting. "I believe they are laying a bit of a trap for us. They have so much money ... if they decide to come in and blitz the last six or seven weeks, they can do it if they want."

[houghtam]

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell warned the state's Democratic delegates not to "rest on your laurels" just because Pennsylvania is being widely cited as a guaranteed win for President Obama.


"Don't be fooled," Rendell said at the morning breakfast meeting. "I believe they are laying a bit of a trap for us. They have so much money ... if they decide to come in and blitz the last six or seven weeks, they can do it if they want."

I don't think anyone is fooled, and definitely not the Obama camp.

As a businessman, I wouldn't waste money in a state that's already lost. Look at the voting history of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Look at the polls.

Romney needs Florida and 5 other states to win. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will not be one of them. The only hope that Republicans have is that the Voter ID laws have their desired effect.

And Virginia is as good as lost if the Republicans lose their bid to keep Virgil Goode off the ballot. He's currently pulling 10% from Romney.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Cool dream, but that rag is a biased conservative mouthpiece, same as Faux News. They don't believe that man landed on teh moon.....

Just the kind of "source" where he gets all his "information," no doubt - not unlike his buddy pricejj.

[Requiem]

It's over for them. Every dollar is going to go towards OH, FL and VA. They need all three of those. Obama has 50 more field offices in Florida than Mitt. He is ****ED.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

It's over for them. Every dollar is going to go towards OH, FL and VA. They need all three of those. Obama has 50 more field offices in Florida than Mitt. He is ****ED.

Yep.

An incumbent with a >50% favorability rating running against a weak challenger.

Doesn't bode well for Dog On Roof.

[TonyR]

Great summary read on how things have shifted in the last couple weeks. It is apparent that the Dems "won" the convention battle.

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/have-the-conventions-changed-the-race.html

[Mecklomaniac]

Yep.

An incumbent with a >50% favorability rating running against a weak challenger.

Doesn't bode well for Dog On Roof.


Dog on roof of his mouth, doesn't have as easy skating as you would like to believe. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75296.html

2008 Obama was bringing alot of energy and people with him. The message was all about hope and change, post partisanship, healing racial divides, yes we can. Lots of energy behind it, and got a lot of young people involved in politics.

2012, it's Bush's fault, Romney killed a guys wife, class warfare, War on Women, OWS, Chicago machine politics. Not a positive message that people want to join. You can see it in the lack of crowds, and young people at rallys.

[houghtam]

Dog on roof of his mouth, doesn't have as easy skating as you would like to believe. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75296.html

2008 Obama was bringing alot of energy and people with him. The message was all about hope and change, post partisanship, healing racial divides, yes we can. Lots of energy behind it, and got a lot of young people involved in politics.

2012, it's Bush's fault, Romney killed a guys wife, class warfare, War on Women, OWS, Chicago machine politics. Not a positive message that people want to join. You can see it in the lack of crowds, and young people at rallys.

Hmmm...I'll take statistics over gut feeling any day. Statistics say it's not going to be close, electoral vote-wise.

[peacepipe]

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2012/09/obama-expands-lead-in-three-tracking-polls/1

Maybe President Obama is getting a bit of a convention bounce after all.

The president's lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney has expanded in three daily tracking polls since his convention ended in Charlotte on Thursday night.

The Gallup tracking poll has Obama up 49%-45%.

Reuters/Ipsos gives the president a 47%-43% lead.

And Scott Rasmussen has Obama ahead of Romney, 46%-44%.

"The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen ... but it's here," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark, reports Reuters.

Reports Rasmussen: "The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party's celebration in Tampa."

The full impact of the Democratic convention is being still being assessed.

"It's important to note that much of the data in these trackers was compiled before the key speeches at the Democratic convention," writes political analyst Taegan Goddard, including the one delivered by Obama on Thursday.
Obama aides had said they did not expect a convention bounce -- but they may have been bluffing.

[Mecklomaniac]

Granted this is old news from back in Dec. Haven't seen any updates on whether or not people are coming back to the Dem Party.

Voters flee Democrat Party in 8 battleground states.

A report released today by the centrist think-tank Third Way showed that more than 825,000 voters in eight key battleground states have fled the Democratic Party since Obama won election in 2008.

“The numbers show that Democrats’ path to victory just got harder,” said Lanae Erickson, the report’s co-author. “We are seeing both an increase in independents and a decrease in Democrats and that means the coalition they have to assemble is going to rely even more on independents in 2012 than it did in 2008.”

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/voters-flee-democratic-party-in-key-swing-states/

Most of the polls are based on 2008 D/R/I turnouts. They do not take 2010 republican landslides into account. This election will be all about the turnout. Seems Reps are a lot more energized to remove Obama, than Dems are to put him back.

[peacepipe]

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....-the-race.html

Rasmussen's GOP-leaning data also found this (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll):
Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters. Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout.

[peacepipe]

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/second-night-of-democratic-national-convention-draws-25-1-million-viewers/

the 2nd night of the DNC drew more than 2 million viewers than the RNCs 2nd night,on a night where the DNC was competing with the NFL opener.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Hmmm...I'll take statistics over gut feeling any day. Statistics say it's not going to be close, electoral vote-wise.

Mecklomaniac and his hunches are getting punked in this thread.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Poll: Obama widens lead over Romney despite jobs data (http://news.yahoo.com/obama-widens-lead-over-romney-despite-jobs-data-201203713.html)

[ghwk]

Granted this is old news from back in Dec. Haven't seen any updates on whether or not people are coming back to the Dem Party.



http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/voters-flee-democratic-party-in-key-swing-states/

Most of the polls are based on 2008 D/R/I turnouts. They do not take 2010 republican landslides into account. This election will be all about the turnout. Seems Reps are a lot more energized to remove Obama, than Dems are to put him back.

I agree with this, I think it's going to be closer than people think.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

I agree with this, I think it's going to be closer than people think.

Only if Obama has to overcome the GOP vote suppression point spread - which he probably will.

[TonyR]

On Nate Silver's model, if the election were held today, Romney would have an 8.4 percent chance of winning, compared with Obama's 91.6 percent. Romney's chances were 32.3 percent a week ago. That's not a decline; it's a free-fall. http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/why-romneys-desperate-ctd.html

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/488227_462885183733287_966365044_n.jpg

[Play2win]

On Nate Silver's model, if the election were held today, Romney would have an 8.4 percent chance of winning, compared with Obama's 91.6 percent. Romney's chances were 32.3 percent a week ago. That's not a decline; it's a free-fall.

That's Clinton :~ohyah!:

[houghtam]

These polls are all likely voters.

9/13: Obama Up Five Points Over Romney in Virginia

This is without factoring how much of the vote third-party candidate and fellow conservative Virgil Goode will take away from Romney. Virginia will be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-obama-up-five-points-over-romney-in-virginia/

9/13: Obama with Advantage Over Romney in Florida


5 point lead for Obama, 7 point lead for Obama with independent voters. Florida will likely be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-obama-with-advantage-over-romney-in-florida/

9/13: Obama Leads Romney by 7 Points in Ohio

Obama has a sizable lead in all age groups in Ohio, including a whopping 9% advantage over Romney in likely voters 60 and over. Ohio will likely be a blue state again in 2012.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/913-obama-leads-romney-by-7-points-in-ohio/

[Paladin]

That's Clinton explaning Ronmey/Rtan fockups. (FIFY)


:wave: