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View Full Version : Food for thought on Manning and the Broncos....


Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 06:22 PM
13 years as a Colt, Manning went the SB twice and won once. He had a better supporting cast in Indy than he does in Den. What are the odds the Broncos go win the Super Bowl, let alone go to one in the 3-4 years(max 5)he plays in Den. NFL history is not on Denver's side, how many Super Bowl winning QB's have gone to another team and won the SB with their new team? Zero. This is not "Bronco Bashing" just food for thought.

swaiy
08-30-2012, 06:23 PM
Might as well forfeit the games and not try because the statistics say it's improbable.

Mogulseeker
08-30-2012, 06:24 PM
I think you're wrong in that the Colts had better surrounding talent. We have a better defense, line and run game, and I expect Manning to make Decker/Thomas/Dreesen etc. look like Wayne/Harrison/Clark etc.

RhymesayersDU
08-30-2012, 06:25 PM
That may be true, but there were no other QB options besides Tebow, or bottoming out for whoever the next college stud is.

Jetmeck
08-30-2012, 06:25 PM
8-8 with TT who I liked but coulnd't pass consistently ......then adding one of the greatest passers of all time..............I LIKE OUR ODDS !

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 06:27 PM
That may be true, but there were no other QB options besides Tebow, or bottoming out for whoever the next college stud is.

I believe that's what Elway was thinking. But Den is a young team, why not develope for the future instead of wanting to win it it all now?

mwill07
08-30-2012, 06:30 PM
what are the odds that any team wins a superbowl? all things being equal, it averages 1:32, right? It's pretty steep to begin with.

What are the odds that Manning can win a superbowl in a given season? Based on past history, it's 1:13. Therefore the odds of Denver winning a superbowl within the next 3 years is 3:13, or just shy of 25%.

I'll take those odds, especially given the 0:infinity odds facing the raiders.

errand
08-30-2012, 06:33 PM
Be gone troll!

All of these QB's had injury-durability-age concerns when acquired by their new teams.....

1972 - The Miami Dolphins pay $100 waiver wire fee to acquire creaky old QB Earl Morrall, who takes over after starter Bob Griese goes down with injury, and goes 11-0 (including playoffs) as their starter preserving the only undefeated season in NFL history

1977 - The Denver Broncos acquired creaky old QB Craig Morton via trade from the NY Giants...he leads them to AFC title, losing in SB to Dallas 27-10. Broncos go 12-2, 10-6, 10-6, 8-8, and 10-6 with him over the course of his career, winning AFC west twice, making playoffs 3 times...narrowly missing out on them the last week in '81

1997 - The Falcons acquire creaky old QB Chris Chandler who in his 2nd season with them leads the Falcons to the NFC title over creaky old QB Randall Cunningham who led the Vikes to a 15-1 season. Chandler went on to lose SB to creaky old John Elway

2005 - The Arizona Cardinals acquired creaky old FA QB Kurt Warner and he leads them to playoffs twice, winning NFC conferencere championship in 2008, losing SB to Steelers 27-23 on a last minute TD.

2009 - The Minnesota Vikings acquired creaky old QB Brett Favre, and he leads them to NFC conference title bout, losing in OT to eventual SB champion New Orleans.

add in that creaky old QB Joe Montana led KC to AFCCG appearance in his 2nd year there, and that creaky old QB Warren Moon took Minnesota to playoffs his first year

That's 9 examples of where signing an older guy to QB your team has gotten those teams to the playoffs, with 78% of them making it to conference title game, and 44% of them making it to the SB...don't recall any team winning the SB without making it there first.

sure only Elway won a title after age 36...but then again he's probably the only one who could compare to Manning in ability to read a defense, perhaps you could also say Warner (he of the last minute loss in SB)

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 06:36 PM
what are the odds that any team wins a superbowl? all things being equal, it averages 1:32, right? It's pretty steep to begin with.

What are the odds that Manning can win a superbowl in a given season? Based on past history, it's 1:13. Therefore the odds of Denver winning a superbowl within the next 3 years is 3:13, or just shy of 25%.

I'll take those odds, especially given the 0:infinity odds facing the raiders.

Well, a team with an elite QB and a top 10 D has far better odds than an average team. Maybe Manning can buck history and be the 1st SB winning QB to win the SB with a different team. At the moment, historical odds are stacked against Manning and the Broncos.

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 06:38 PM
Be gone troll!

All of these QB's had injury-durability-age concerns when acquired by their new teams.....

1972 - The Miami Dolphins pay $100 waiver wire fee to acquire creaky old QB Earl Morrall, who takes over after starter Bob Griese goes down with injury, and goes 11-0 (including playoffs) as their starter preserving the only undefeated season in NFL history

1977 - The Denver Broncos acquired creaky old QB Craig Morton via trade from the NY Giants...he leads them to AFC title, losing in SB to Dallas 27-10. Broncos go 12-2, 10-6, 10-6, 8-8, and 10-6 with him over the course of his career, winning AFC west twice, making playoffs 3 times...narrowly missing out on them the last week in '81

1997 - The Falcons acquire creaky old QB Chris Chandler who in his 2nd season with them leads the Falcons to the NFC title over creaky old QB Randall Cunningham who led the Vikes to a 15-1 season. Chandler went on to lose SB to creaky old John Elway

2005 - The Arizona Cardinals acquired creaky old FA QB Kurt Warner and he leads them to playoffs twice, winning NFC conferencere championship in 2008, losing SB to Steelers 27-23 on a last minute TD.

2009 - The Minnesota Vikings acquired creaky old QB Brett Favre, and he leads them to NFC conference title bout, losing in OT to eventual SB champion New Orleans.

add in that creaky old QB Joe Montana led KC to AFCCG appearance in his 2nd year there, and that creaky old QB Warren Moon took Minnesota to playoffs his first year

That's 8 examples of where signing an older guy to QB your team has gotten those teams to the playoffs, with 75% of them making it to conference title game, and 50% of them making it to the SB...don't recall any team winning the SB without making it there first.

sure only Elway won a title after age 36...but then again he's probably the only one who could compare to Manning in ability to read a defense, perhaps you could also say Warner (he of the last minute loss in SB)

I am refering to SB winning QB's...I totally forgot about Warner, he his the one QB that came pretty damn close.

LonghornBronco
08-30-2012, 06:46 PM
Dumb ass Troll GTFO!

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 06:49 PM
People....this is not trolling or Bronco bashing....just food for thought.

errand
08-30-2012, 06:53 PM
I am refering to SB winning QB's...I totally forgot about Warner, he his the one QB that came pretty damn close.

I know...was just pointing out that signing an older QB isn't the albatross some fools on here think it is....I noticed that the better the QB, the teams that signed them were closer to the end result of winning a title.

And we got Peyton Manning!

On edit : Nice curse word filter there TJ...well played...LOL

errand
08-30-2012, 06:57 PM
People....this is not trolling or Bronco bashing....just food for thought.


Was just kidding about the trolling part...we know who the real trolls are on here.....but then again you're a non-Broncos fan on a Broncos message casting doubting Thomas aspersions against the Broncos

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 06:58 PM
I know...was just pointing out that signing an older QB isn't the albatross some fools on here think it is....I noticed that the better the QB, the teams that signed them were closer to the end result of winning a title.

And we got Peyton I'd like to crawl in the same snuggie with!n@ Manning!

Well, Manning can't solve all of Broncos problem.....but having Manning gives Den better odds than having Tebow....and I believe is what Elway is thinking.

Ray Finkle
08-30-2012, 07:04 PM
Things that are more enjoyable than this thread:

1. A good BM
2. A throat punch
3. Pulling nose hairs out with tweezers

Bacchus
08-30-2012, 07:05 PM
13 years as a Colt, Manning went the SB twice and won once. He had a better supporting cast in Indy than he does in Den. What are the odds the Broncos go win the Super Bowl, let alone go to one in the 3-4 years(max 5)he plays in Den. NFL history is not on Denver's side, how many Super Bowl winning QB's have gone to another team and won the SB with their new team? Zero. This is not "Bronco Bashing" just food for thought.

You're right, I thought the Broncos would for sure go to the SB this year when they signed Manning. I now think it is only a 90% probablility. Sorry to be such a debbie downer

Br0nc0Buster
08-30-2012, 07:05 PM
13 years as a Colt, Manning went the SB twice and won once. He had a better supporting cast in Indy than he does in Den. What are the odds the Broncos go win the Super Bowl, let alone go to one in the 3-4 years(max 5)he plays in Den. NFL history is not on Denver's side, how many Super Bowl winning QB's have gone to another team and won the SB with their new team? Zero. This is not "Bronco Bashing" just food for thought.

That "supporting cast" won 2 games last year, enough with this already

The Colts sucked, he single handily carried them on his back every year
Before he even got hurt Ray Lewis said the Colts without him were a "very below average team"

This year he will have the best defense of his career along with the best running game since the Edge days

We may not win the superbowl, but at least with him we have a legit shot
That is more than most teams can say

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:07 PM
Manning was brought in for than a legit shot to win as much as Montana was brought in for the Chiefs.

DBroncos4life
08-30-2012, 07:09 PM
Manning was brought in for than a legit shot to win as much as Montana was brought in for the Chiefs.

So we are going to the AFC championship game?

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:12 PM
This is not about just making it to the AFC championship but winning the SB

DBroncos4life
08-30-2012, 07:20 PM
This is not about just making it to the AFC championship but winning the SB

Food for thought, no team as ever made it to the SB without first making it to the championship game. :thumbs:

Kaylore
08-30-2012, 07:25 PM
He's convinced me! Why even try to win? We should hide under our beds and drink our pee.

Flex Gunmetal
08-30-2012, 07:30 PM
OP doesn't watch football.
Colts have a better supporting cast??
Please explain that one.

Kaylore
08-30-2012, 07:31 PM
OP doesn't watch football.
Colts have a better supporting cast??
Please explain that one.

He doesn't need to. He's right. It's not like Manning has broken any records or precedents. It's not like he's deviated from the norm toward the exceptional.

Come. Sit with me in fear under this bed. We shall feast on fear, hopelessness and urine.

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:33 PM
He's convinced me! Why even try to win? We should hide under our beds and drink our pee.

Knock yourself out....enjoy your pee. But this is not about "....oh **** let's give up"....SMH....

Kaylore
08-30-2012, 07:36 PM
Knock yourself out....enjoy your pee. But this is not about "....oh **** let's give up"....SMH....

Think about this. Each NFL team has 1/32 shot of winning the superbowl. That's a 3.125% chance. Why try? All is lost. Mmmmmm, delicious pee....

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:37 PM
OP doesn't watch football.
Colts have a better supporting cast??
Please explain that one.

In his 13 years with the Colts during his battles with NE....those teams have a better supporting cast than what Den has now. Yet, in those 13 years he win one SB.....in 13 years! What are the odds he will win the SB in the 3-4 yrs he is with Den. It's tough....then looking at historical trends with SB winning QB's ....and the odds get tougher....but not impossible.

DBroncos4life
08-30-2012, 07:38 PM
In his 13 years with the Colts during his battles with NE....those teams have a better supporting cast than what Den has now. Yet, in those 13 years he win one SB.....in 13 years! What are the odds he will win the SB in the 3-4 yrs he is with Den. It's tough....then looking at historical trends with SB winning QB's ....and the odds get tougher....but not impossible.

NE can't video tape things anymore so there is that too.

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:38 PM
Think about this. Each NFL team has 1/32 shot of winning the superbowl. That's a 3.125% chance. Why try? All is lost. Mmmmmm, delicious pee....

Sure....but that's not taking into account teams with elite QB's, running games, and D's.

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:39 PM
NE can't video tape things anymore so there is that too.

Lol....true

menonite
08-30-2012, 07:45 PM
So what is your point? "It's tough to win a SB" Well no ****.

I think this Denver team and coaching staff is better than the Colts have been since 2005. The team that Manning dragged to the SB against the Saints was not very good at all. And Caldwell may have been the least qualified NFL head coach I've ever seen.

Manning's last game with the Colts was the playoff loss to the Jets. His scrub receiver dropped the ball pass that would have practically sealed the game. And then Caldwell inexplicably called a timeout allowing the Jets enough time to score. He had already cost the Colts a game to the Jaguars earlier in the season by doing the same exact thing. I don't think Fox will make that type of mistake.

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 07:49 PM
Point is, yes it's tough to win a SB.....and having a SB winning QB doesn't make less tough....but the historical trend with SB QB's on new teams is not a good trend when looking at Manning's odds winning a SB with Den....impossible? No

Dr. Broncenstein
08-30-2012, 07:53 PM
Things that are more enjoyable than this thread:

1. A good BM
2. A throat punch
3. Pulling nose hairs out with tweezers

Lol never take for granted your ability to have a normal BM. There are people in this world who would do anything to trade places.

Nwp-Apap
08-30-2012, 07:55 PM
I think Manning made the "talent" in Indianapolis. Our players are more talented, and playing with a QB of Manning's caliber will bring out their best, and the main stream media will blow their tops about how lucky the Broncos were that their whole team came into their prime at the same time. When in reality, that's just the affect an elite QB can have on a team.

Br0nc0Buster
08-30-2012, 07:56 PM
Point is, yes it's tough to win a SB.....and having a SB winning QB doesn't make less tough....but the historical trend with SB QB's on new teams is not a good trend when looking at Manning's odds winning a SB with Den....impossible? No

So you felt the need to start a thread saying we may.....or may not win the Superbowl with Manning

http://lolpie.com/images/archive/content/1/4/cool-story-bro-YIbbc.jpg

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 08:02 PM
I think Manning made the "talent" in Indianapolis. Our players are more talented, and playing with a QB of Manning's caliber will bring out their best, and the main stream media will blow their tops about how lucky the Broncos were that their whole team came into their prime at the same time. When in reality, that's just the affect an elite QB can have on a team.

I have no doubt that Manning will make the O better

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 08:02 PM
So you felt the need to start a thread saying we may.....or may not win the Superbowl with Manning

http://lolpie.com/images/archive/content/1/4/cool-story-bro-YIbbc.jpg

No

Drek
08-30-2012, 08:06 PM
Point is, yes it's tough to win a SB.....and having a SB winning QB doesn't make less tough....but the historical trend with SB QB's on new teams is not a good trend when looking at Manning's odds winning a SB with Den....impossible? No

You don't get how stats like these work, do you?

This is what's called spurious correlation. There is no physical law keeping SB winning QBs from winning them with a new team. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because winning a single SB is tough as **** and takes a ton of luck. Winning two in your career is even more exceptional. Generally guys who win SBs stay with that team until they retire too, FYI.

So you have a shortage of guys who ever even try it, and even then they have infinitesimally small odds just like every other QB trying to win a second SB would. Just because it hasn't happened YET doesn't mean it won't happen eventually.

People used to say this **** about a black guy becoming President, FYI.

Fight_On!
08-30-2012, 08:16 PM
You don't get how stats like these work, do you?

This is what's called spurious correlation. There is no physical law keeping SB winning QBs from winning them with a new team. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because winning a single SB is tough as **** and takes a ton of luck. Winning two in your career is even more exceptional. Generally guys who win SBs stay with that team until they retire too, FYI.

So you have a shortage of guys who ever even try it, and even then they have infinitesimally small odds just like every other QB trying to win a second SB would. Just because it hasn't happened YET doesn't mean it won't happen eventually.

People used to say this **** about a black guy becoming President, FYI.

So are saying that trend is statistically invalid?The point is that winning two in 13 is exceptional...winning one in 3 or 4 years is most likely improbable but not impossible