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View Full Version : Harsh words towards Denver resigning Prater


ludo21
07-03-2012, 01:54 PM
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8125450/packing-miles-hurt-team-overpaying-kicker

Towards the bottom half of the article. Basically says signing a kicker who kicks 75% is dumb at his price even though he owns late game siutations..

Drunken.Broncoholic
07-03-2012, 02:09 PM
Look at the writers picture at the bottom. Exactly how I thought he would look. No mention of the Chicago game. Which took 2 crazy long field goals to win. Which also was needed to win the division. I'd say those were pretty valuable kicks. The writer is a fat turd.

maher_tyler
07-03-2012, 02:10 PM
I'd rather have a kicker that can make the clutch kick and miss a few here and there, than the kicker that makes all his kicks but misses the clutch kicks.

bronco militia
07-03-2012, 02:10 PM
yawn....

and lmao at comparing the 2008 steelers and seahawks. geographical location has nothing to do with the talent level of your favorite team.

SonOfLe-loLang
07-03-2012, 02:11 PM
yawn....

and lmao at comparing the 2008 steelers and seahawks. geographical location has nothing to do with the talent level of your favorite team.

No, but there's a very reliable betting trend about teams who travel from PST to EST to play early games. They rarely cover.

Stagger Lee
07-03-2012, 02:15 PM
I'll make this my 549th reason for not reading Grantland.com. The first 500 or so have a lot to do with Bill Simmons being a complete whiny Boston cockslobbering douche bag.

bronco militia
07-03-2012, 02:15 PM
No, but there's a very reliable betting trend about teams who travel from PST to EST to play early games. They rarely cover.

so the hawks lose by 14 instead of 7....

ZZZ... ;D

WolfpackGuy
07-03-2012, 02:20 PM
Forward this article to a Ravens fan.

I'm sure they'll understand the value of a good kicker.

Drunken.Broncoholic
07-03-2012, 02:22 PM
http://a.espncdn.com/i/columnists/barnwell_bill_m.jpg (http://www.grantland.com/contributor/_/name/bill-barnwell)

Houshyamama
07-03-2012, 02:24 PM
He makes some good points.

But something about the article smacks of getting lost in a myriad of stats, and losing the big picture in the process.

Captain 'Dre
07-03-2012, 02:29 PM
I'll make this my 549th reason for not reading Grantland.com. The first 500 or so have a lot to do with Bill Simmons being a complete whiny Boston cockslobbering douche bag.

ugh!~ ugh!~ ugh!~

Gross!

bronco militia
07-03-2012, 02:31 PM
He makes some good points.

But something about the article smacks of getting lost in a myriad of stats, and losing the big picture in the process.

the broncos are really only on the hook for the bonus and this years salary?

Bronco Rob
07-03-2012, 02:36 PM
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/toktcx6f_Go" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



:~ohyah!:

HILife
07-03-2012, 02:41 PM
Consider that Prater had three game-winners in overtime this past season and just one over his previous four years in the league. Even if he was some sort of clutch kicker, he's not going to have the opportunities to show that skill off at any sort of meaningful level over the next four years. And in Prater's case, it's going to take a heck of a lot of clutch kicks to overcome how average he is before those clutch moments.

Super Bowl, down by 2 points, 1 second left on the clock, 55 yard field goal is your only option.

I guarantee, if he makes that kick, he'll be worth EVERY penny of that 13 million, 3 million signing bonus.

SouthStndJunkie
07-03-2012, 02:49 PM
I'm fine with giving Matt Prater that contract.

He has impressed me with a strong leg and ability to come through in the clutch with some big time FGs to win games.

bap454
07-03-2012, 03:13 PM
Really only 75%? I remember him being solid all year. Can anyone verify?
(I'm at work). Any hoot, well worth the money. Proved me wrong on letting Elam go being a HUGE mistake.

Chris
07-03-2012, 03:23 PM
Matt Prater

Sharp Knees

broncosteven
07-03-2012, 03:39 PM
I thought the contract was fair and I would take Prater over trying to find another FG over the next couple years.

jmz313
07-03-2012, 03:40 PM
Really only 75%? I remember him being solid all year. Can anyone verify?
(I'm at work). Any hoot, well worth the money. Proved me wrong on letting Elam go being a HUGE mistake.

No stats here but he was pretty rough 40-49 yards. Nerve racking.

ludo21
07-03-2012, 03:44 PM
he does miss inside of 40 quite a bit, so i believe the 75% number without looking it up... (im lazy)

but. with PM he should get at least 30 Attmpts this season

broncosteven
07-03-2012, 03:45 PM
No stats here but he was pretty rough 40-49 yards. Nerve racking.

Yep but I would take the known over the unknown. Plus he has a leg that keeps teams starting at the 20.

Solid investment

Kid A
07-03-2012, 04:00 PM
Bill Barnwell, IMO, has been one of the best NFL columnists/analysts since I've started reading him on Grantland.

And, frankly, it's hard to dispute what he's saying here - take away three games from last season, and nobody here considers Prater in the top 5 kickers in the league. His game tying kick against Chicago was obviously one for the ages, but one kick does not a consistent, all-pro kicker make. His career stats so far are mediocre.

Personally, I'm okay with the deal given how much a crapshoot finding even a mediocre kicker can be. And Prater seemed to be gaining momentum and confidence over the last season, so I'd love for him to be the heir to Elam we want him to be. But Barnwell is probably correct in saying Prater is getting overpaid here, likely on the leverage of a couple highlight reel kicks (that ultimately count just as much as a missed 40 yarder in the 2nd quarters).

Boobs McGee
07-03-2012, 04:06 PM
The author's argument that he's not going to get as many clutch opportunities (because Tebow is in New York now), and aside from that is less than average, to me is irrelevant. If the guy HITS when the opportunity arises, then what's the problem? He's 92% inside of 40 yards, doesn't miss extra points, and comes up big when he needs to.

EDIT: to ME, that's worth the extra cash flow.

Boobs McGee
07-03-2012, 04:26 PM
Bill Barnwell, IMO, has been one of the best NFL columnists/analysts since I've started reading him on Grantland.

And, frankly, it's hard to dispute what he's saying here - take away three games from last season, and nobody here considers Prater in the top 5 kickers in the league. His game tying kick against Chicago was obviously one for the ages, but one kick does not a consistent, all-pro kicker make. His career stats so far are mediocre.

Personally, I'm okay with the deal given how much a crapshoot finding even a mediocre kicker can be. And Prater seemed to be gaining momentum and confidence over the last season, so I'd love for him to be the heir to Elam we want him to be. But Barnwell is probably correct in saying Prater is getting overpaid here, likely on the leverage of a couple highlight reel kicks (that ultimately count just as much as a missed 40 yarder in the 2nd quarters).

You're right. TWO Back to back 50 plus yarders (one of which was a game winner) certainly help your cause though.

In my opinion, you pay the guys that make plays. How many kickers have we seen over the years choke away big games? Jay feeley? John Carney? Nate Keiding? Those are three off the top of my head that ALL missed when it counted, BIG time games that kept their teams out of the playoffs/moving forward in the playoffs.

That plays into my second point...and the second bolded section. There isn't leverage as the author would like to think. A 40 yarder in the second COULD mean a difference in a game, but the team still has two quarters to overcome the deficit. Highlight reel kicks are just that, memorable events that propell your team to greatness. A higher price to pay, sure, but well worth it.

Lestat
07-03-2012, 04:34 PM
I'd rather have a kicker that can make the clutch kick and miss a few here and there, than the kicker that makes all his kicks but misses the clutch kicks.

well said.

Bacchus
07-03-2012, 04:56 PM
It's a good signing. At this point it is all monopoly money anyway.

Jason7730
07-03-2012, 05:30 PM
Doesn't Prater have the highest make % behond 50 yds. in NFL history?

Paladin
07-03-2012, 05:30 PM
Really, now. What difference does it make what the Broncos pay Prater, or any other player for that matter? The contract is between the Broncs and the player, and no one here has a vote on the contract, anyway. Sort of dumb for anyone to question what the Broncos pay any player.







(This message was typed without the aid of Mrs. TOG's nipples.)

Kaylore
07-03-2012, 06:54 PM
Really, now. What difference does it make what the Broncos pay Prater, or any other player for that matter? The contract is between the Broncs and the player, and no one here has a vote on the contract, anyway. Sort of dumb for anyone to question what the Broncos pay any player.







(This message was typed without the aid of Mrs. TOG's nipples.)


Well if it's wasted resources that could impact the ability to sign other players, OR resources you don't get a return on because the player sucks after the signing, then it does warrant some scrutiny.

I personally don't think Prater's contract is going to hurt anything in the way of signing players, but if Prater implodes over the next few seasons, this is money that was wasted.




(This message may have been typed with the aid of Mrs. TOG's nipples.)

broncocalijohn
07-03-2012, 07:10 PM
he does miss inside of 40 quite a bit, so i believe the 75% number without looking it up... (im lazy)

but. with PM he should get at least 30 Attmpts this season

He will easily have more than 30 extra point attempts. That is the PM difference. I am hoping for 1 point add ons then to pray for a 45 yarder.

Stuck in Cali
07-03-2012, 07:27 PM
He is money for long ones, just need to work on intermediate ones to improve his game/keep his job. I think they are expecting him to improve in said areas, and I don't see why he can't.

Vegas_Bronco
07-03-2012, 07:35 PM
Hes no Elam...but he seems to have pulled off his contract...must be a hell of a negotiator with the ladies.

LongDongJohnson
07-03-2012, 08:00 PM
http://a.espncdn.com/i/columnists/barnwell_bill_m.jpg (http://www.grantland.com/contributor/_/name/bill-barnwell)

Im willing to bet this guy gets laid daily.

Broncos_OTM
07-03-2012, 09:03 PM
I heard on the radio... think it was sandy clough ... he's 81 % or so and 12/16 on fifty plus best in NFL history

DBroncos4life
07-03-2012, 09:10 PM
Im willing to bet this guy gets laid daily.

I bet he is balls deep in orc va jay jay everyday.

TonyR
07-03-2012, 09:55 PM
Prater made some huge kicks last year, and he was a bigger part of Denver's winning streak than a kicker would typically be. But he's still a kicker, and one who's made just 80.4% of his attempts with the Broncos, including an atrocious 20 of 33 from 40-49 yards (60.6%).

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/the-daily-lard-5-18-12

TonyR
07-03-2012, 09:57 PM
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8125450/packing-miles-hurt-team-overpaying-kicker

Towards the bottom half of the article. Basically says signing a kicker who kicks 75% is dumb at his price even though he owns late game siutations..

This stat is pretty awful:

...heís now hit 78.4 percent of his field goals across five pro seasons. That ranks 37th out of 44 regular kickers over that time frame, so itís safe to say that Praterís not known for his accuracy...

Archer81
07-03-2012, 10:16 PM
In 2007 with Atlanta, Prater was 1-4. In 2008, he was 25 of 34 (73%). 2009, 30 for 35 (85%) 2010, 16 of 18 (88%) and in 2011, 19 for 25 (76%). Throw out the 2007 season and he is hitting 80% of his kicks.

Besides, how many fieldgoals do you think we are going to kick this year? Extra points and kickoffs. Prater might get bored.

:Broncos:

colorado jones
07-03-2012, 10:18 PM
Im willing to bet this guy gets laid daily.

Laid by his right hand...

Archer81
07-03-2012, 10:22 PM
Oh, and Elam had a career made % of 80.7.

In 1997, He hit 72% of his kicks. I recall that season seemed to turnout ok.

:Broncos:

errand
07-03-2012, 10:25 PM
Who cares what some writer thinks?

All that matters is what was Matt Prater worth to the Broncos....they resigned him for the amount he got...so that's what he's worth

Heyneck
07-03-2012, 10:29 PM
I am happy we signed our very clutch kicker!!! That is all!!!

extralife
07-03-2012, 10:37 PM
Forward this article to a Ravens fan.

I'm sure they'll understand the value of a good kicker.

If you knew how to read, you'd note that the Ravens situation in fact backs up the author. Which might be why he opened the kicker section with the anecdote of Billy Cundiff.

DivineLegion
07-03-2012, 10:53 PM
I've always enjoyed Praters per game warm up where he kicks the ball from the sideline at the side of the goal post. He's pretty good at hitting an object that is 6" wide from 10-50 yards pregame.

cutthemdown
07-04-2012, 12:21 AM
I think Broncos feel Prater could be a no miss kicker and just needs to keep growing. The leg is there and he makes clutch kicks. Hopefully he continues to improve,

mosca
07-04-2012, 05:29 AM
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/toktcx6f_Go" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



:~ohyah!:
/endthread

Kid A
07-04-2012, 06:49 AM
I think the point Barnwell was making (and as the guys at Fat Man phrased it (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/prime-cuts/slice/barnwell-broncos-should-be-going-moneyball-with-its-kickers)), is that the signing goes against what could best be called the "Moneyball" approach, that is not overvaluing perception or gut feelings about a guy (e.g. "he's so clutch" "rocket leg"), but looking at the stats and banking on them telling the truer story of how he will perform in the future.

Again, I don't think it would be a huge deal even if we did overpay a little - I feel pretty good about having him as our kicker moving forward. But I'm not sure why people are getting so defensive that they have to ad hominem attack how the author looks in his bio pic? Barnwell has written in the past about kickers getting too much credit for being "clutch" - that this example of a pet peeve involved a Bronco is hardly grounds for hating a guy who, in the past, has been plenty fair to Denver (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7431227/steelers-broncos).

Bronco Boy
07-04-2012, 07:05 AM
Prater may be a mediocre kicker. But he's OUR mediocre kicker.

CEH
07-04-2012, 07:44 AM
[
http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/the-daily-lard-5-18-12

I'm curious what the average margin of victory is in the NFL and how has Prater done in games where he needs to tie or win the game. I bet he's damn good.

These guys are way too sensitve and need to do better research before saying they'd rather bring in a Rackers and spend the money elsewhere

How much was that CHI victory worth? I'd say Prater won that game. Playoff game at home was what it was worth. Concessions alone from that game paid for Prater salary

bowtown
07-04-2012, 08:07 AM
Prater was great for us last year but Colquitt was more valuable. Hope we get him extended soon.

errand
07-04-2012, 09:59 AM
He will easily have more than 30 extra point attempts. That is the PM difference. I am hoping for 1 point add ons then to pray for a 45 yarder.


He'll get close to 30 PAT's on Manning TD passes alone....more than 40 if we included rushing TD's.

TonyR
07-04-2012, 11:04 AM
More anti-Prater contract sentiment here:

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/goodell-upholds-bounty-suspensions-levied-by-goodell-lard

RaiderH8r
07-04-2012, 03:12 PM
I'd rather have a kicker that can make the clutch kick and miss a few here and there, than the kicker that makes all his kicks but misses the clutch kicks.

Gary Anderson wishes you wouldn't say things like that.

thomas
07-04-2012, 05:06 PM
I'd rather have a kicker that can make the clutch kick and miss a few here and there, than the kicker that makes all his kicks but misses the clutch kicks.
See Olindo Mare......

DenverBroncosJM
07-04-2012, 09:58 PM
I'd rather have a kicker that can make the clutch kick and miss a few here and there, than the kicker that makes all his kicks but misses the clutch kicks.

Me too. I'm sure some SD chugger fans would agree

Blart
07-05-2012, 12:16 AM
I think the point Barnwell was making (and as the guys at Fat Man phrased it (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/prime-cuts/slice/barnwell-broncos-should-be-going-moneyball-with-its-kickers)), is that the signing goes against what could best be called the "Moneyball" approach, that is not overvaluing perception or gut feelings about a guy (e.g. "he's so clutch" "rocket leg"), but looking at the stats and banking on them telling the truer story of how he will perform in the future.


Yeah, it's a good article. Certainly more in-depth than your typical burger-bill or woody paige puff piece.

Pseudofool
07-05-2012, 01:31 AM
I think the point Barnwell was making (and as the guys at Fat Man phrased it (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/prime-cuts/slice/barnwell-broncos-should-be-going-moneyball-with-its-kickers)), is that the signing goes against what could best be called the "Moneyball" approach, that is not overvaluing perception or gut feelings about a guy (e.g. "he's so clutch" "rocket leg"), but looking at the stats and banking on them telling the truer story of how he will perform in the future. A small quibble but you're misunderstanding Moneyball. Moneyball is looking at what the market undervalues and recruiting players with those underpriced attributes. In baseball, during Billy Beane's rise in Oakland, the capacity to get on-base was undervalued specifically, and the use of sabermetric statistical analysis (as you mention) was undervalued general. But advance statistics have loads of problems as the Moneyball A's have discovered the past half-decade. Moneyball is not simply pro-statistic and anti-abstract/human element.

Something to note is that football statistics are always victimized by their small sample size, so that places so much more onus on talent evaluation. Evaluators are working with 10% of the sample size of baseball. Indeed it's not what a player has done, it's what you believe he can do, when you give him a contract.

WolfpackGuy
07-05-2012, 06:57 AM
If you knew how to read, you'd note that the Ravens situation in fact backs up the author. Which might be why he opened the kicker section with the anecdote of Billy Cundiff.

Don't read Grantland, but thanks for the heads up!

maher_tyler
07-05-2012, 07:18 AM
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/toktcx6f_Go" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



:~ohyah!:

Just send this video and i'm pretty sure they'd change their mind...nice find ^5

Beantown Bronco
07-05-2012, 07:46 AM
One of the many things the writers from grantland failed to report is that Prater is statistically better than Elam was at the same point in his career. I suppose the Broncos should've dumped him after his first contract too.

55CrushEm
07-05-2012, 07:53 AM
Prater made some huge kicks last year, and he was a bigger part of Denver's winning streak than a kicker would typically be. But he's still a kicker, and one who's made just 80.4% of his attempts with the Broncos, including an atrocious 20 of 33 from 40-49 yards (60.6%).

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/the-daily-lard-5-18-12

That's just crazy that his 50+ perctentage is BETTER than his 40-49 percentage......75% vs. 60.6%. And it's SIGNIFICANTLY better. Leg strength isn't the issue, clearly.....it's a mental thing.

Insane.

Beantown Bronco
07-05-2012, 08:35 AM
Prater's stats are also misleading because he has so few attempts compared to most of the kickers in the NFL. One miss hurts him a lot more than it would most guys, because (especially last year) he might only get one attempt per game.

55CrushEm
07-05-2012, 08:49 AM
Prater's stats are also misleading because he has so few attempts compared to most of the kickers in the NFL. One miss hurts him a lot more than it would most guys, because (especially last year) he might only get one attempt per game.

True. The most important stat I read.....

In his career.....he is 28 for 29.....yes, only ONE miss, in the 4th quarter or OT.

WOW!

TonyR
07-05-2012, 09:09 AM
^ Agree. But just to play devil's advocate (again) check out what IAOFM had to say on this very subject today:

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/raiders-are-just-bad-people-lard

Beantown Bronco
07-05-2012, 09:56 AM
Interesting comment from that link, to give more context to his 40-49 struggles:

With Prater we are talking about 4 years and change (Atlanta). With Atlanta he went 1-4 (25%), and 1-3 (33%) from 40-49 respectively, and in his first year went 25-34 (74%), and 5-11 (45%) from 40-49 respectively. Combined he went 26-38 (68%) and 6/14 (43%). For his career he is 91-116 (78%), and 21-36 (58%) from 40-49. He has a total of 25 career misses with 15 of them coming from 40-49---still with me?

That first year and change accounts for 48% of his total misses and 53% of his misses from 40-49 yards. Essentially that one year and change is negatively skewing his career numbers. From then we have marked improvement in both categories---2009 and 2010 combined he went 46-53 (87%) and 12-15 (80%) from 40-49. Adding in last year he went 65-78 (83%) and 15-22 (68%) from 40-49. Now 68% though an improvement is not good enough, but it is still only one part of the entire picture.

Putting it altogether, I see a kicker with an extremely strong leg suited for altitude, that has improved his accuracy, and has hit pressure kick after pressure kick---that is good enough and the Broncos thought so as well.

gyldenlove
07-05-2012, 10:37 AM
Something that is conveniently ignored in the Grantland article is the value of TBs with the new kickoff rules. Prater obviously kicks a lot of TBs in Denver, but then most kickers do in the altitude - but he also produces TBs away from home which is where it really matters, he in fact had a 68% TB rate, which was the highest in the league.

Prater has a strong leg and a mentality that allows him to kick well late in games, especially with games on the line - that is an attribute that earned Vinatieri a lot of money.

WolfpackGuy
07-05-2012, 10:41 AM
There's the whole altitude thing, but Prater has finished no worse than 6th in touchback percentage since he came to Denver, and actually finished first in the league last year.

Another sad stat, Denver kicked off 69 times last year while the Packers kicked off 108 times!

broncocalijohn
07-05-2012, 11:21 AM
There's the whole altitude thing, but Prater has finished no worse than 6th in touchback percentage since he came to Denver, and actually finished first in the league last year.

Another sad stat, Denver kicked off 69 times last year while the Packers kicked off 108 times!

Dude, know your stats before posting. Packers had 41 safeties against them and that is why they kicked off so many times! Now you know the rest of the story.

Mile High Salute
07-05-2012, 12:14 PM
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8125450/packing-miles-hurt-team-overpaying-kicker

Towards the bottom half of the article. Basically says signing a kicker who kicks 75% is dumb at his price even though he owns late game siutations..

That article was stupid, the writer is a tard, and I will never get that 10 minutes of my life back. >:'(

He seems to think kickers are interchangeable and the Broncos could've got someone equally reliable with the veteran's minimum. He is wrong. There are only a handful of kickers in the league that are truly clutch, and Prater is one of them. He is being fairly compensated.

broncocalijohn
07-05-2012, 01:18 PM
That article was stupid, the writer is a tard, and I will never get that 10 minutes of my life back. >:'(

He seems to think kickers are interchangeable and the Broncos could've got someone equally reliable with the veteran's minimum. He is wrong. There are only a handful of kickers in the league that are truly clutch, and Prater is one of them. He is being fairly compensated.

Simply stated, do we get to the playoffs without Prater? My answer is NO! I saw the kick against the Bears and how many kickers make a 59 yarder? He was clutch throughout the season. Now with Peyton, maybe not so many close wins but who would want to take that chance. Kickers are not like long snappers where the top 8 at that position are pretty interchangable. That is not the case for punters and kickers.

ludo21
07-12-2012, 02:38 PM
so I think Bill Barnwell hates Matt Prater.. unrelated article and he still gets in a jab at Prater Ha!

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8159185/the-present-dreaded-franchise-tag

"You save money on the Matt Praters of the world so that you can pay this sort of player whatever he wants."

- talking about resigning brees