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pricejj
05-11-2012, 02:04 AM
I went back and watched SuperBowl XLI and XLIV, studying Manning's Offense, the formations, and the statistical production of the Colts players throughout their SuperBowl seasons. Some things became immediately clear:

1. Manning runs a no-huddle offense with NO substitutions (the RB's will rotate every other drive).
2. The Colts primarily operate out of 1 formation (only moving the TE's).
3. Manning never throws a bad ball...EVER.
4. The dude is freaking nails in the redzone.
5. When they call Manning, "one of the best ever"...that's 'cause he is.

Let me answer a couple questions that have been asked on this board:
1. "What about our crappy O-Line?"
Answer: Don't worry about it. In both 2006 and 2009, the Colts line consisted of primarily low-draft picks and UDFA's...undersized and not particularly accomplished. Even Jeff Saturday was undrafted and undersized. If J.D. Walton can get his sh*t together, we won't have to worry about anybody else. They are all quite a bit better than what the Colts had...and Manning made them look like All-Stars.

2. "Who's going to be the 3rd WR?"
Answer: Probably no one. Caldwell, Hill, Stokley, Dell, etc....yeah those guys? They probably won't even get on the field. Below, are all the significant stats for Colts Offensive players in 2006. Notice only 6 guys got the ball ALL YEAR LONG. Only the RB's rotated (every other drive).


2006 Season:
Colts 12-4, won in SuperBowl XLI

rec. speed height
1 Harrison(WR) 95 4.38 6'0"
2 Wayne(WR) 86 4.45 6'0"
3 Clark*(TE) 48 4.65 6'3"
4 Utecht(TE) 37 4.8 6'6"
5 Addai(RB) 40 4.4 5'11"
6 Rhodes(RB) 36 4.52 5'09"

Manning 4,397 yards, 31 TD's (led the NFL)
Addai 226 rushing attempts, 1,081 yards
Rhodes 187 rushing attempts, 641 yards


Only 2 WR's (Harrison and Wayne), 2 TE's (Clark and Utecht), and 1 RB (Addai or Rhodes), we're ever on the field, all season long. The Colts generated 1,700 rushing yards, while using the 2 TE set (18th in the NFL), they didn't use a Fullback. Notice both RB's had ~ 40 catches each.


2009 Season:
Colts 14-2, lost in SuperBowl XLIV

rec. speed height
1 Wayne(WR) 100 4.45 6'0"
2 Clark(TE) 100 4.65 6'3"
3 Collie(WR) 60 4.56 6'0"
4 Garcon(WR) 47 4.42 5'11"
5 Addai(RB) 51 4.4 5'11"
6 Brown(RB) 11 4.46 5'10"

Manning 4,500 yards, 33 TD's
Addai 219 rushing attempts, 828 yards
Brown 78 rushing attempts, 281 yards


Only 3 WR's (Wayne, Garcon, and Collie), 1 TE (Clark), and 1 RB (Addai or Brown), were ever on the field, all season long. The Colts only generated about 1,200 yards rushing, which was worst in the NFL (500 yards less than in 2006). The did not use a Fullback, and only had 1 TE in the entire time...while generating a similar amount of passing yards, receptions and TD's to 2006. The problem with the 2006 Colts, is that they did not have a blocking TE (like in 2006), and they were not well balanced.


What does this mean? You can come to your own conclusions, but since the Broncos have Dreessen (who is better than Utecht), and want to establish a balanced pass/rush Offense, I think the Broncos will run a no-huddle Offense very similar to the Colts 2006. The 6 primary players are shown below:


2012 Season:
Broncos

rec. speed height
1 Thomas(WR) 80 4.45 6'3"
2 Decker(WR) 80 4.54 6'3"
3 Tamme(TE) 80 4.58 6'3"
4 Dreessen(TE) 30 4.72 6'4"
5 Hillman(RB) 40 4.45 5'9"
6 McGahee(RB) 40 4.45 6'0"

Manning 4,400 yards, 31 TD's
McGahee 225 rushing attempts, 1,125 yards
Hillman 150 rushing attempts, 750 yards


The 2012 Broncos have personnel very similar to the 2006 Colts (and 2011/2012 Patriots). We have 6 Offensive weapons who are touchdown scoring machines. I put in some very obtainable passing, receiving, and rushing goals for the Offense. I believe the primary formation will have:

1. DT split-wide to the left
2. Tamme lined up in the slot (on either side)
3. Dreessen lined up covering the OT (on either side)
4. A single RB (either McGahee or Hillman)
5. Decker split-wide to the right

Tell me what you think.

Mogulseeker
05-11-2012, 02:15 AM
I agree with the conclusion on the bas formation, but I do think we'll use some 3WR sets.

I believe (not sure though) that the Colts were the only team to ever have three WRs with 100 catches in the same season.

pricejj
05-11-2012, 03:11 AM
I agree with the conclusion on the bas formation, but I do think we'll use some 3WR sets.

I believe (not sure though) that the Colts were the only team to ever have three WRs with 100 catches in the same season.

If they did, the 3rd guy would have been Clark (a TE).

It was amazing how many different formations the Saints ran in SuperBowl XLIV, as opposed to the Colts vanilla base formation. Both were very effective. I just don't see a reliable 3rd WR option. One thing the 2009 Colts did was split Addai wide (rarely)...which I could see the Broncos doing with Hillman. I see nothing wrong with past Manning Offense's, and I hope Manning takes over the primary design of the offense and play-calling. I am tired of McCoy's gimmicks (Tebow) and bubble-screens (Orton). McCoy really needs to leave it to the expert (Manning).

Neither Manning, nor Brady have consistently used a 3rd WR, if a viable 2nd TE option is present on the roster. The Broncos No-Huddle has an ability to be just as unstoppable as New England's Offense if DT and Decker can consistently get open and catch the ball. Demaryius Thomas is the deep-threat that the Patriots don't have.

fontaine
05-11-2012, 04:34 AM
The thing that stands out for me is that Manning will have huge targets all above 6'3" from WRs to TEs so I expect a LOT of yards after the catch from Decker/Thomas/Tamme because Manning is accurate enough to get the ball right in between their numbers and throw them open.

We already saw last year that if you get Decker/Thomas in space on one on one situations they are very difficult to bring down.

BMarsh615
05-11-2012, 04:38 AM
Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley all had over 1,000 yards in 2004.

HILife
05-11-2012, 06:23 AM
Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley all had over 1,000 yards in 2004.

Yea I don't think there was a 3 100 catch season, but I'm sure there was a 3 1000 yards season.

pricejj
05-14-2012, 12:28 PM
McCoy's recent comments about wanting to establish a "2 back system", because the Broncos have "had so much success with it over the last 2 years", made me laugh.

Although having a 2-back look, at times could be helpful. The Broncos don't have a dependable fullback. The Colts had little success out of the 2-back look with Mike Hart in 2009. It would be helpful to have a pass-catching, dependable FB on the roster, for some short-yardage/goal line situations (2-3 times per game). Nothing more.

The beauty of the Manning Offense is the simplistic formations, and ability of any skill player to catch the ball, on any play. Adding a non-pass catching FB to the base-formation would severely limit Manning's options. McCoy's failure to see this is unbelievable.

Keep your g*ddamn hands off this offense, McCoy.

Bmore Manning
05-14-2012, 12:37 PM
Price this is solid stuff.

Indy ran something like 80% of their plays from either 2TE or 3WR sets. So I agree I 100% expect to see that most of the time in Denver. Peyton doesn't even need an intricate play book to make a Super Bowl caliber offense, his audibles at the line put players in the right positions to make plays.

He does not make bad throws, his picks are from great plays by defenders, many dropped or tipped passes from his receivers, a WR missing his route.

He has typically had dreadful OLines, Denver's is better except at Center..

BroncoBen
05-14-2012, 12:40 PM
Nice stuff Pricejj ... good read.

Cmac821
05-14-2012, 12:44 PM
holy analysis, that is great stuff. I like the idea of a no huddle, especially when it kicks in when the defensive subs out the first time.

What are chances Manning will have creative control on the offensive?

pricejj
05-14-2012, 12:49 PM
Price this is solid stuff.

Indy ran something like 80% of their plays from either 2TE or 3WR sets. So I agree I 100% expect to see that most of the time in Denver. Peyton doesn't even need an intricate play book to make a Super Bowl caliber offense, his audibles at the line put players in the right positions to make plays.

He does not make bad throws, his picks are from great plays by defenders, many dropped or tipped passes from his receivers, a WR missing his route.

He has typically had dreadful OLines, Denver's is better except at Center..

Right. But here is my main point. I do not think there should be a 3rd WR on this team to make more than 30 catches this year. It will be supremely more beneficial to operate with both Tamme (Big mismatch in the passing game against DB's and LB's) AND Dreessen (versatile weapon as a run-blocker and pass catcher), than by taking out a TE or the RB for an additional WR. Both the Colts (2006) and Patriots (2011) have had great success utilizing 2 TE sets in a pass-first Offense. It would be better if Caldwell/Hill/Stokley/etc. only saw the field to rarely spell DT or Decker.

Having both Tamme and Dreessen in the game at the same time, creates a myriad of mismatches that adding a FB or 3rd WR could never hope to do. 2 big, fast TE's are almost unguardable, and significantly open up the running game.

Bmore Manning
05-14-2012, 12:49 PM
holy analysis, that is great stuff. I like the idea of a no huddle, especially when it kicks in when the defensive subs out the first time.

What are chances Manning will have creative control on the offensive?

He will have final control when he audibles!

Drunken.Broncoholic
05-14-2012, 12:51 PM
McCoy who?

Cmac821
05-14-2012, 12:52 PM
He will have final control when he audibles!

I see it now, Manning in the huddle rolling his eyes as he relays the call to the team

Bmore Manning
05-14-2012, 12:54 PM
Right. But here is my main point. I do not think there should be a 3rd WR on this team to make more than 30 catches this year. It will be supremely more beneficial to operate with both Tamme (Big mismatch in the passing game against DB's and LB's) AND Dreessen (versatile weapon as a run-blocker and pass catcher), than by taking out a TE or the RB for an additional WR. Both the Colts (2006) and Patriots (2011) have had great success utilizing 2 TE sets.

It would be better if Caldwell/Hill/Stokley/etc. only saw the field to rarely spell DT or Decker.

Yeah, I haved witnessed this for years. They will sub in and use Caldwell. Manning spreads the ball around, so 30 for Caldwell could be very accurate! Not to mention they didn't target a big play receiver in the draft or in FA, so yes I see majority of 2TE sets, with Caldwell/Stokely if he makes the team, getting involved as well.

BroncoMan4ever
05-14-2012, 12:56 PM
I agree with the conclusion on the bas formation, but I do think we'll use some 3WR sets.

I believe (not sure though) that the Colts were the only team to ever have three WRs with 100 catches in the same season.

i thought it was 1st team to have 3 - 1000 yard receivers in 1 season

pricejj
05-14-2012, 01:02 PM
Yeah, I haved witnessed this for years. They will sub in and use Caldwell. Manning spreads the ball around, so 30 for Caldwell could be very accurate! Not to mention they didn't target a big play receiver in the draft or in FA, so yes I see majority of 2TE sets, with Caldwell/Stokely if he makes the team, getting involved as well.

I see a very minimal involvement of Caldwell/Stokley (< 30 catches), if they do this correctly.

A nickel CB or LB could never guard Tamme. Dreessen is the secret weapon of this Offense, who if used correctly, could have a Shannon Sharpe effect on 3rd downs.

TonyR
05-14-2012, 01:03 PM
4. A single RB (either McGahee or Hillman)


Seems reasonable to expect Hillman to be the primary back since he probably fits the offense better than McGahee. Agree? Disagee?

Bmore Manning
05-14-2012, 01:09 PM
I see it now, Manning in the huddle rolling his eyes as he relays the call to the team

Somebody should post the Manning skit he did with Kenny Mayne, from Mayne event.

canadianbroncosfan
05-14-2012, 01:14 PM
nice work price!

Doggcow
05-14-2012, 01:16 PM
I think at home the No Huddle could be exceptionally devastating. Just exponentially increases our home field advantage with the thin air.

pricejj
05-14-2012, 01:22 PM
Seems reasonable to expect Hillman to be the primary back since he probably fits the offense better than McGahee. Agree? Disagee?

Definitely agree. I'm not sure that McGahee is spry enough to handle the primary RB duties like Addai did with the Colts, we will see.

Addai was deadly out of the backfield in both the passing and running game. The Colts used RB extensively, either carrying the rock, or running pass patterns on every play, sometimes splitting out wide. In this Offense, RB is the job of a young speedster.

The thing I like about Hillman/McGahee is, that they should be able to pick up good yardage without a FB, which is absolutely imperative.

I think at home the No Huddle could be exceptionally devastating. Just exponentially increases our home field advantage with the thin air.

Freaking this.

socalorado
05-14-2012, 01:51 PM
Great write up price.
I think Hilman will thrive in this offense.

broncswin
05-14-2012, 01:59 PM
Hillman will be huge...defenses better strap it on when they come to Denver, because Peyton and the no huddle are gonna suck the life out of them....OXYGEN...STAT!!

Hulamau
05-14-2012, 02:00 PM
holy analysis, that is great stuff. I like the idea of a no huddle, especially when it kicks in when the defensive subs out the first time.

What are chances Manning will have creative control on the offensive?

And dont forget the added CRUSH of the no huddle on opposing Defenses at Mile High :-) ... Usually we have been on the receiving end of such a no huddle in our stadium but our guys are at least acclimated to the altitude.

In contrast, now it will be our offense all dialed in at a mile high and running full bore all day long and the opposing D will be crying for Mama and puking on their shoes by the second series of the second half in each of those home games!

Ryan Clark, make DAMN sure you sit out that first game again in September at Mile High or it could well be the morgue for you after a game of Manning's no huddle brutality at altitude instead of just a typical flight back in defeat to Pittsburg.

WolfpackGuy
05-14-2012, 02:06 PM
Are they talking true no huddle/hurry up or the Colts' half huddle while calling everything at the line?

pricejj
05-14-2012, 02:36 PM
Are they talking true no huddle/hurry up or the Colts' half huddle while calling everything at the line?

Manning's No-Huddle. It gives a big advantage to the Offense, because the Defense can't substitute. The Defense can change looks, or bring different blitzes, but the Offensive formation is always the same, so all Manning has to do is audible the routes or blocking assignments. The skill players on Offense become very familiar with the Defensive players they are facing, and are able to win battles consistently. Rather than constantly changing formations and shuttling personnel in and out in an attempt to confuse the Defense. The Colts utilized their 6 best skill players out of the base formation, all game long. Manning was able to study the Defense, it's tendencies, the match-ups, and capitalize on the Defensive weaknesses. You also have the opportunity to score quickly.

All these factors result in a perennial top scoring Offenses, no matter the personnel changes from year to year.

errand
05-14-2012, 03:41 PM
Running it will definitely be fun to watch....my only concern would be if the no huddle Manning runs can be implemented by opening day

Mogulseeker
05-14-2012, 03:44 PM
Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley all had over 1,000 yards in 2004.

This is what I was thinking of.

When the Colts had Stokes, they utilized him quite a bit.

Bronco Rob
05-14-2012, 03:47 PM
Andre Caldwell ran a 4.37 in 2008 and he will help stretch the defense. Jason Hill runs in the low 4.3's





:thumbs:

oubronco
05-14-2012, 06:45 PM
McCoy who?

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_20611686/broncos-playbook-will-be-new-peyton-manning

baja
05-14-2012, 07:59 PM
Nice stuff Pricejj ... good read.

Damn man where do you get them pics??

Broncobiv
05-14-2012, 08:42 PM
Manning's No-Huddle. It gives a big advantage to the Offense, because the Defense can't substitute. The Defense can change looks, or bring different blitzes, but the Offensive formation is always the same, so all Manning has to do is audible the routes or blocking assignments. The skill players on Offense become very familiar with the Defensive players they are facing, and are able to win battles consistently. Rather than constantly changing formations and shuttling personnel in and out in an attempt to confuse the Defense. The Colts utilized their 6 best skill players out of the base formation, all game long. Manning was able to study the Defense, it's tendencies, the match-ups, and capitalize on the Defensive weaknesses. You also have the opportunity to score quickly.

All these factors result in a perennial top scoring Offenses, no matter the personnel changes from year to year.
If it's that "easy", works so well, and gives such an incredible advantage to the offense, why don't more teams use an offense like Manning's (like anyone else)?

I assume the answer is because it would take a QB both as physically and, more importantly, mentally gifted as Manning? And no quarterback, possibly ever, fits that criteria?

pricejj
05-15-2012, 12:09 AM
If it's that "easy", works so well, and gives such an incredible advantage to the offense, why don't more teams use an offense like Manning's (like anyone else)?

I assume the answer is because it would take a QB both as physically and, more importantly, mentally gifted as Manning? And no quarterback, possibly ever, fits that criteria?

All of the elite NFL QB's use the no-huddle (Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees). Now that the Steelers have a new OC, the Roethlisberger will be using a lot more no-huddle.

The full-time Manning no-huddle worked because Manning is the most prepared QB in the history of the NFL, with probably the best ball placement.

Remember, the no-huddle limits the Offense as well (limited communication, limited personnel, strenuous pace).

pricejj
05-21-2012, 10:58 AM
Here is a great piece, by Chris Brown, on the Colt's No-Huddle with Manning. A simple Offense, that depended on EXECUTION. Brown also focused on the 2006 season, like I did. I hope Manning has his way, and runs HIS Offense...not McCoy's.

http://smartfootball.com/offense/peyton-manning-and-tom-moores-indianapolis-colts-offense

To me, this is the most interesting story, going forward.


Who's Offense are the Broncos going to run?


Check out the "Levels" and "Fin (Inverted Levels)" plays. Manning's favorite plays, out of the no-huddle. VERY EXCITING.

The Colts running game was a "Pin-and-Pull Outside ZBS" ...also used by the Colorado Buffaloes in the early 1990's. Single back, 2 TE set.

As you can see, the passing and running game were perfect complements to each other, and perfect in the no-huddle. Same formation...infinite possibilities.

KNOW YOUR ROLE MCCOY. :sunshine:

eff1ngham
05-21-2012, 11:41 AM
I just read that same article this morning (http://smartfootball.com/offense/pey...-colts-offense) and it got me thinking about this thread. (I've been lurking here for a little over a year, figured I may as well actually create an account and start posting :wave: ). There were two points I wasn't sure on that I was talking about over the weekend with a few friends:


2. "Who's going to be the 3rd WR?"
Answer: Probably no one. Caldwell, Hill, Stokley, Dell, etc....yeah those guys? They probably won't even get on the field. Below, are all the significant stats for Colts Offensive players in 2006. Notice only 6 guys got the ball ALL YEAR LONG. Only the RB's rotated (every other drive).


The only reason I can see us using Caldwell or another WR playing a lot more is that in the 2006 season Harrison and Wayne were both veterans by that point. And in 2009 Wayne was basically one of the top WRs in the game (though Collie was a rookie and Garcon essentially was as well). This will be the first year Thomas should start the year healthy and as a starter, and Decker only started last year. Not that Caldwell is a true vet or anything, but I could see him getting more playing time if Thomas or Decker struggle at all. Or the same could be said for one of the new guys/rookies.


The 2012 Broncos have personnel very similar to the 2006 Colts (and 2011/2012 Patriots). We have 6 Offensive weapons who are touchdown scoring machines. I put in some very obtainable passing, receiving, and rushing goals for the Offense. I believe the primary formation will have:

1. DT split-wide to the left
2. Tamme lined up in the slot (on either side)
3. Dreessen lined up covering the OT (on either side)
4. A single RB (either McGahee or Hillman)
5. Decker split-wide to the right

Tell me what you think.

Again, the question here I'd have is at RB. Willis and Hillman seem the most likely to split time, but will Knowshon play at all? I believe McGahee has only had one season where he ever caught more than 30 passes. Addai, Rhodes and Brown were all fairly competent receivers (well, Brown is supposed to be, guess he's never shown it). Hillman is supposed to have good hands, and Knowshon has shown a few flashes out of the backfield. I just wonder if they'd go to those two more often since they're better pass catchers, and use Willis more early in games, or late when we're protecting leads.

I'm definitely pumped to see our offense in action though!

maher_tyler
05-21-2012, 12:01 PM
I don't think i'm the only one that hopes McCoy is handcuffed when it comes to our offense...much in the way it seemed Xanders was with his job. I'm sure we'll have a few different looks than what they had in Indy but for the most part, it'll be the single back sets with either the 3 WR's or 2 TE's.

pricejj
05-21-2012, 12:39 PM
I just read that same article this morning (http://smartfootball.com/offense/pey...-colts-offense) and it got me thinking about this thread. (I've been lurking here for a little over a year, figured I may as well actually create an account and start posting :wave: ). There were two points I wasn't sure on that I was talking about over the weekend with a few friends:

Thanks for posting...most exciting Broncos offseason EVER.



The only reason I can see us using Caldwell or another WR playing a lot more is that in the 2006 season Harrison and Wayne were both veterans by that point. And in 2009 Wayne was basically one of the top WRs in the game (though Collie was a rookie and Garcon essentially was as well). This will be the first year Thomas should start the year healthy and as a starter, and Decker only started last year. Not that Caldwell is a true vet or anything, but I could see him getting more playing time if Thomas or Decker struggle at all. Or the same could be said for one of the new guys/rookies.


We are about to find out how good DT is at running routes. You are right though, Caldwell will probably be the 1st guy off the bench in the event that DT or Decker are not able to consistently beat their man. The Colts left their best and most versatile players on the field at all times. I expect the Broncos to do the same.


Again, the question here I'd have is at RB. Willis and Hillman seem the most likely to split time, but will Knowshon play at all? I believe McGahee has only had one season where he ever caught more than 30 passes. Addai, Rhodes and Brown were all fairly competent receivers (well, Brown is supposed to be, guess he's never shown it). Hillman is supposed to have good hands, and Knowshon has shown a few flashes out of the backfield. I just wonder if they'd go to those two more often since they're better pass catchers, and use Willis more early in games, or late when we're protecting leads.

I'm definitely pumped to see our offense in action though!

McGahee had 43 receptions in his 1st year in Baltimore (the only year he started). He can easily do it again with Manning. I don't think Moreno has the speed or elusive ability to consistently gain rushing yardage in a single-back set.

mwill07
05-21-2012, 01:10 PM
Again, the question here I'd have is at RB. Willis and Hillman seem the most likely to split time, but will Knowshon play at all? I believe McGahee has only had one season where he ever caught more than 30 passes. Addai, Rhodes and Brown were all fairly competent receivers (well, Brown is supposed to be, guess he's never shown it). Hillman is supposed to have good hands, and Knowshon has shown a few flashes out of the backfield. I just wonder if they'd go to those two more often since they're better pass catchers, and use Willis more early in games, or late when we're protecting leads.

I'm definitely pumped to see our offense in action though!

RB's role in the receiving game isn't about their ability to catch the ball or what they do with it afterwards; it's all about their ability to pass-block. If you can't block, you won't see the field.

AFAIK, Moreno is a decent blocker. We don't know about Hillman, but rookie RB's are rarely counted on to block. I don't know how I'd feel about putting the health of Peyton Manning in the hands of a 5'9", 200 lb rookie.

IMO Moreno and McGahee are the alternating backs, splitting series. Moreno gets more looks in passing - series (i.e. behind in 2nd half), and McGahee gets more looks in running series (i.e. ahead in 2nd half). Hillman comes in on odd occasions to get some experience, but won't necesarily play a big role.

Agamemnon
05-21-2012, 06:50 PM
As far as who is going to be the 4th receiving option (TE or WR), I think it boils down to who they like more on the field for the majority of snaps (Dreesen or one of our receivers not named Thomas or Decker). Right now I would expect Dreesen to be that guy.

I also don't see McGahee being a huge factor in the passing game. I think he's going to get relegated back to short yardage situations like he was in Baltimore. Both for the sake of reducing the wear and tear at his age and the fact that he's never been much of a receiving back.

Of course this is all before injuries start being a factor...

TonyR
05-24-2012, 08:29 AM
Peyton Manning, Broncos coach Mike McCoy a perfect match

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82944ade/article/peyton-manning-broncos-coach-mike-mccoy-a-perfect-match

pricejj
05-25-2012, 01:49 PM
IAOFM's: Fat Camp - Undervalued Roles, the Move TE (http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/fat-camp-undervalued-roles-the-move-te)

This piece goes more into the value of the Move TE (for us Jacob Tamme) in a 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE set.

We have been discussing this set often in the Broncos No-Huddle. Yesterday, in the Ronnie Hillman thread, we discussed why the Slot TE is so difficult to cover. He can block a DB in the run game, and beat an LB everytime in the pass game. Depending on what the Defense is in, you can take advantage of the mismatch that the Slot TE creates. IAOFM published this article today.

:sunshine:

pricejj
06-18-2012, 03:57 PM
John Elway - (DenverBroncos.com): (http://blog.denverbroncos.com/mrice/koa-qa-elway-part-two/)"I think you’re still going to see good balance. I think the misconception is that Peyton throws the ball all the time but when they were winning and doing well, they were top 12 in the league in rushing."

Elway's answer's are telling, regarding what Denver's Offense will look like this year. We have been looking for something concrete, and I believe we have found it.

A. He mentions using '21' personnel in short yardage, and goal line situations - That is pretty smart if you ask me. Very limited, but can come in handy in special situations, while running the No-Huddle most of the time...precisely what I've been promoting.

B. The Colts were never 'top 12' in yards 'when they were successful'. The Colts only Superbowl win (2006), they were 18th in rushing attempts and 18th in rushing yards - What were the totals? 557 attempts and 439 rushing attempts.

B. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2001, when the Colts ranked 17th in attempts and 7th in yards to find when the Colts ranked within the 'top 12' rushing.

Indianapolis Colts 2001:
1. Manning had 26 TD's, 23 INT's, 4131 yards, 62.7 comp. %
2. The Colts had 557 passing attempts, and 438 rushing attempts (remarkably, same as in 2006).
3. The Colts ran out of the 2 TE, 2 WR, 1 RB set.
4. 2001 was Reggie Wayne's rookie year, and only started half the year.
5. Receptions are as follows:
Marvin Harrison (WR) - 109
Wayne/Wilkins/Pathon (WR) - 85
Marcus Pollard (TE) - 47
Ken Dilger (TE) - 32
Dominic Rhodes (RB) - 34
Edge James (RB) - 24
Total of top 6 - 331 receptions

To get 12th in rushing in 2011, the Jaguars had 1,970 yards. If the Broncos run the ball 438 times, they would have to average 4.5 yards per rushing attempt to get 1,970 rushing yards in 2012. A healthy average, which would place them ~7th overall in rushing. Sounds like a good goal to me.

What's more, if you take Manning's total passing attempts (557), and assume he will complete 65% of his passes, you end up with 362 completions (right in line with my previous goals)

pricejj
11-05-2012, 02:47 PM
2012 Season pace (after 8 games):
Broncos

rec.
1 Thomas(WR) 90
2 Decker(WR) 92
3 Stokley(WR) 48
4 Tamme(TE) 58
5 Dreessen(TE) 42
6 Hillman(RB) 12
7 McGahee(RB) 42
Manning 4,808 yards, 40 TD's
McGahee 292 rushing attempts, 1,240 yards
Hillman 64 rushing attempts, 280 yards


1. Manning is performing better than expected (69.5% comp. rate is phenomenal).
2. Stokley has emerged from the trash heap, to be an important component of this Offense in '11' personnel, adding a new dimension that we did not think we would have coming into the year.
3. Hillman's relatively slow emergence has finally begun to take shape over the last two games. The good thing is, both Hillman (4.4 ypc) and McGahee (4.2 ypc) are averaging >4.0 ypc, which was one of my keys to success.
4. Both Thomas and Decker have proven that they are bonafide #1 and #2 NFL WR's, removing all doubts about their ability.
5. Tamme and Dreessen have lived up to their billing, and performed as expected.
6. McGahee is on pace for 1,200 yards, which was his goal coming into the year.

pricejj
11-05-2012, 03:10 PM
John Elway - (DenverBroncos.com): (http://blog.denverbroncos.com/mrice/koa-qa-elway-part-two/)"I think you’re still going to see good balance. I think the misconception is that Peyton throws the ball all the time but when they were winning and doing well, they were top 12 in the league in rushing."



As to Elway's pre-season quote...

The Broncos are currently 75 yards from being 'top 12' in the NFL. Now that Knowshon and Lance Ball are squarely in the rear-view mirror, let's see what Hillman has in store for the second half of the 2012 season. From what we have seen the last two games, Hillman looks up to the task.

Both Elway and Manning know the importance of a consistent running game. Superbowl winners are able to run the ball when necessary.

pricejj
12-26-2012, 01:11 AM
2012 Season (estimate):
Broncos

rec. speed height
1 Thomas(WR) 80 4.45 6'3"
2 Decker(WR) 80 4.54 6'3"
3 Tamme(TE) 80 4.58 6'3"
4 Dreessen(TE) 30 4.72 6'4"
5 Hillman(RB) 40 4.45 5'9"
6 McGahee(RB) 40 4.45 6'0"

Manning 4,400 yards, 31 TD's
McGahee 225 rushing attempts, 1,125 yards
Hillman 150 rushing attempts, 750 yards




2012 Season (actual):
Broncos

rec.
1 Thomas(WR) 87
2 Decker(WR) 78
3 Tamme(TE) 51
4 Dreessen(TE) 42
5 Stokley(WR) 39
6 McGahee(RB) 26
7 Moreno(RB) 20
5 Hillman(RB) 10

Manning 4,355 yards, 34 TD's
McGahee 167 rushing attempts, 731 yards
Moreno 124 rushing attempts, 484 yards
Hillman 81 rushing attempts, 314 yards

OBF1
12-26-2012, 01:55 AM
The OP's estimate of 5 yards per carry for both RB's was real generous.... and not very close.

mhgaffney
12-26-2012, 07:18 AM
Great write up price.
I think Hilman will thrive in this offense.

I agree.

Get him in space and watch the defense go crazy.

ditto for Moreno.