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View Full Version : Draft predictions in hindsight


That One Guy
04-28-2012, 03:44 PM
I think the only way to keep the draft process in perspective is to look back afterwards and analyze. We can see who knew what they were talking about and who slung poo at the wall only to have a wall with poo on it. This can be fellow posters, media guys, or your own thoughts that turned out to be wrong.

It's not really their fault but I'll start by citing all those who still had Dennard going high after his cop incident. 2nd round to the 7th.

I have to find the citations but I know there were a lot predicting various DTs that were gonna be gone by our pick and others that would be great value at 25 that didn't end up going until like the 3rd round.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 03:55 PM
Parcells and Polian's draft board thread: http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=105174

Things to note: It really seems like they had almost no feeling for the value of some of these players. Had still as the 2nd DT and he ended up going 53rd overall. Minnifield as a 1st round talent that's still undrafted. You could keep going as it appears there's a lot.

Just really seems like they knew the things everyone knew but the things were they dissented from conventional wisdom, they swung and missed.

barryr
04-28-2012, 03:59 PM
Parcells and Polian's draft board thread: http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=105174

Things to note: It really seems like they had almost no feeling for the value of some of these players. Had still as the 2nd DT and he ended up going 53rd overall. Minnifield as a 1st round talent that's still undrafted. You could keep going as it appears there's a lot.

Just really seems like they knew the things everyone knew but the things were they dissented from conventional wisdom, they swung and missed.

Minnifield is slowly coming off microfracture surgery and reportedly ran horribly in the 40 and there were questions about his ability before all of that.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 04:04 PM
Mayocks Mock thread: http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=105170

Seems to have predicted the players in the first round overall but just shows the overall uselessness of mock drafts, I think. He had guys going late in the 1st that went early and vice versa. Had the right ranges but not many of the right teams. More a incrimination of the mock process than Mayock.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 04:08 PM
Minnifield is slowly coming off microfracture surgery and reportedly ran horribly in the 40 and there were questions about his ability before all of that.

Well I think one of the most interesting things about this process has been how little it seems media actually have a feel on the value of players. It's one thing to predict a general consensus but if this guy were really a 1st round talent and noone jumped on him throughout the draft. Most likely, he hasn't been viewed by anyone as a first round talent for a while and this just shows the disconnect. If these guys that do this for a living don't have a feel for so many of the player's ACTUAL draft prospects, I think it really undermines their usefulness in this whole process. It really seems they just trumpet what each other are saying most of the time.

barryr
04-28-2012, 04:10 PM
Well I think one of the most interesting things about this process has been how little it seems media actually have a feel on the value of players. It's one thing to predict a general consensus but if this guy were really a 1st round talent and noone jumped on him throughout the draft. Most likely, he hasn't been viewed by anyone as a first round talent for a while and this just shows the disconnect. If these guys that do this for a living don't have a feel for so many of the player's ACTUAL draft prospects, I think it really undermines their usefulness in this whole process. It really seems they just trumpet what each other are saying most of the time.

True. Minnifield had 1st round type grades going into his senior year, but injury and average play dropped him, but that was ignored by some.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 04:23 PM
Places where it seems some Maners called it: Burfict sucking. I recall some here hating him fairly early in the process. By the end, there were almost no believers when Mayock still kinda made a splash when he called UDFA last week.

Places where Maners flopped: DT overvaluation. Ta'amu in the 2nd, Still or Worthy before our picks in the 1st, the list goes on and on. It can't be blamed on anyone here but noone could've known Poe would go as high as he did.

This is a great post by you, Barryr. Quite telling, I think.

Speaking of DT's, I saw Brian Baldinger on NFL Network I think it was the other day talking about DT's in the draft and stating one thing teams look at in the combine is how they do the 3 cone drill because that shows agility and ability to change direction and make plays. Well, here are the times of some of the most talked about DT's around here in this draft at the 3 cone drill:

Cox 7.07
Martin 7.19
Wolfe 7.26
Reyes 7.43
Brockers 7.46
Crick 7.47
Randall 7.49
Worthy 7.60
Still 7.70
Hicks 7.75
Poe 7.90
Thompson 7.97

I liked Cox and Reyes, and also Martin before I looked up these numbers and I can see why. They are very quick and able to change direction and make plays. Wolfe's time is also impressive and is certainly worth a look IMO. Poe and Thompson are going to be space eaters but not likely much else. Still and Worthy's times are not 1st round types IMO. Brockers will be a 1st rounder for sure.

Lestat
04-28-2012, 04:24 PM
Minnifield has injury concerns so him falling after the microfracture surgery so it's not a shock.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 04:31 PM
Sigh... nevermind. Point of thread being missed. Thread fail.

How does one delete?