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rugbythug
04-27-2012, 06:52 PM
EFX has no clue on how to play a game. And lets get it right the draft is a game with 32 players. We have consistently given too much to move up. the 120 pick vs GB going 10 picks higher for the 163rd. Then they are taking players who are not in jeopardy of being taken. If I played poker with these guys I would have Elways super bowl rings. Its absolutely a travesty, they need some help. I don't even care if the players are not who I would have taken. The players are only half the equation.

ColoradoBuff
04-27-2012, 06:56 PM
i agree....it's a joke!

That One Guy
04-27-2012, 06:58 PM
That's the feeling I get as well. I just think they're trying to play the trade back game but they really don't want to miss their guys so they're overly willing to trade back but then the anxiety gets them and they'll overpay to get up. They want their guys and I don't have an issue with that.

Chidoze
04-27-2012, 06:59 PM
Definitely head scratchers, but I'm not gonna say they are dumb picks yet. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt right now.

Aftermath
04-27-2012, 07:02 PM
So far this might be the worst Broncos draft I remember. Every pick is wtf.

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:03 PM
It not even about the picks. Who can say now. But knowing how to get where you are going is a skill. Its Xanders he has no clue how to make trades. It has been like this for a few years.

That One Guy
04-27-2012, 07:03 PM
So far this might be the worst Broncos draft I remember. Every pick is wtf.

It does feel like they may be outsmarting themselves overall.

BroncoBen
04-27-2012, 07:03 PM
Definitely head scratchers, but I'm not gonna say they are dumb picks yet. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt right now.

I agree.. the talk was the Broncos needed a DT and RB.. well they got them, but the question is did the Broncos draft them to high? Does it matter if they can contribute. Seems they were production in college.

The Broncos have been high on the ASU QB.. I guess they figured better to draft him when they had the opportunity.. But then again was it too high ?

winstoncup bronco
04-27-2012, 07:06 PM
The Broncos have been high on the ASU QB.. I guess they figured better to draft him when they had the opportunity.. But then again was it too high ?

It's not so much the player, but the position. Did we really need to spend a 2nd rounder on a guy we hope doesn't start a game for us for at least 3 years?

crush17
04-27-2012, 07:06 PM
Hate it hate it hate it hate it.

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:07 PM
We pay a premium to Move up and Charge nothing to move back.

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:09 PM
Then we pick guys way earlier than the group think has them rated. Look at the grades. If you are the only team way outside of the group think then you are paying to much. Even if you want those guys, why pay so much more than the market requires?

That One Guy
04-27-2012, 07:14 PM
Then we pick guys way earlier than the group think has them rated. Look at the grades. If you are the only team way outside of the group think then you are paying to much. Even if you want those guys, why pay so much more than the market requires?

To be certain you get them.

chanesaw
04-27-2012, 07:17 PM
We actually got a good deal to move up.
67 = 255

87 = 155
120 = 54
209

TheReverend
04-27-2012, 07:23 PM
This is pretty embarrassing.

We're getting handled in trades and selecting players at least 1 round early.

barryr
04-27-2012, 07:26 PM
The Broncos take a QB who is a major project to sit and learn an offense he probably won't see since a Manning offense won't be his offense and then they trade up to get a 3rd down type RB? I was ok with trading down and then taking Wolfe, but everything else pretty much blows IMO. Like I mentioned, they really do think they have a Super Bowl ready team, so just need parts and not players to produce. Good luck with that Elway.

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:26 PM
We actually got a good deal to move up.
67 = 255

87 = 155
120 = 54
209

Check the other trade ups for reference.

cutthemdown
04-27-2012, 07:29 PM
LOL at all the arm chair gms saying Elway and the Broncos need a better front office. The front office is kicking ass IMO. Broncos improved the team this offseason a great deal. Also I like Wolfe, he's athletic and IMO can get sacks in the NFL with Doom and Miller on the outside.

TheReverend
04-27-2012, 07:30 PM
LOL at all the arm chair gms saying Elway and the Broncos need a better front office. The front office is kicking ass IMO. Broncos improved the team this offseason a great deal. Also I like Wolfe, he's athletic and IMO can get sacks in the NFL with Doom and Miller on the outside.

You're out of your ****ing mind.

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:31 PM
LOL at all the arm chair gms saying Elway and the Broncos need a better front office. The front office is kicking ass IMO. Broncos improved the team this offseason a great deal. Also I like Wolfe, he's athletic and IMO can get sacks in the NFL with Doom and Miller on the outside.

We should play poker some time.

go_broncos
04-27-2012, 07:31 PM
LOL at all the arm chair gms saying Elway and the Broncos need a better front office. The front office is kicking ass IMO. Broncos improved the team this offseason a great deal. Also I like Wolfe, he's athletic and IMO can get sacks in the NFL with Doom and Miller on the outside.

Hilarious!

Jay3
04-27-2012, 07:32 PM
The Broncos trading back and up remind me of Tebow doing reverse spin moves in the pocket.

Archer81
04-27-2012, 07:33 PM
As long as ghostbusters is not being watched at Dove Valley, I can take anything...

But I will repeat...some of you guys take this stuff way too seriously.

:Broncos:

TheReverend
04-27-2012, 07:34 PM
The Broncos trading back and up remind me of Tebow doing reverse spin moves in the pocket.

...Only those usually worked.

chanesaw
04-27-2012, 07:38 PM
Check the other trade ups for reference.

I just thought it was a better trade than last night's.

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:39 PM
As long as ghostbusters is not being watched at Dove Valley, I can take anything...

But I will repeat...some of you guys take this stuff way too seriously.

:Broncos:

From the looks of this draft it is on an endless loop.

gunns
04-27-2012, 07:41 PM
So far this might be the worst Broncos draft I remember. Every pick is wtf.

LOL After some of Shanahans? And considering none of them have played a down yet? Pick up a job application at Dove Valley. And take your crystal ball with you, it'll impress them. They are waiting on your expertise. Hey I'm not overly thrilled, but I don't know if they are good or bad yet. Tell me, who are we taking in the 4th?

broncswin
04-27-2012, 07:42 PM
I will judge this after I see the production..scary..but you never know. Come on boys make the FO look good

rugbythug
04-27-2012, 07:44 PM
LOL After some of Shanahans? And considering none of them have played a down yet? Pick up a job application at Dove Valley. And take your crystal ball with you, it'll impress them. They are waiting on your expertise. Hey I'm not overly thrilled, but I don't know if they are good or bad yet. Tell me, who are we taking in the 4th?

Its not even the players its where and how you take them. We are not doing a good job running the board and getting value against the board.

Slightly Soiled
04-27-2012, 07:47 PM
Next they'll be trading the first QB to get us a playoff win in 5 yrs.

houghtam
04-27-2012, 11:34 PM
Its not even the players its where and how you take them. We are not doing a good job running the board and getting value against the board.

I don't see how it is so hard to understand. The NFL draft is two entirely different skill sets. Getting the players you want, yes. But the other side is getting value out of your picks. Since it's a team game, the sum of your additions to the team needs to be greater than its parts. That means you need to get the absolute best value for each pick, even if it means sometimes sacrificing the "best" player on your board for the "next best" player on your board, so you can make sure you are able to get value for all the other picks you're making. You definitely do not reach for someone in the early rounds, just because he's there and you like him, unless you REALLY like him. And in most of those cases, there will be several other suitors who REALLY like him too, so he won't last that long in the first place.

NUB
04-28-2012, 12:27 AM
I actually think a lot of NFL "pros" still have no idea what they are really doing in the draft.

I mean, look at the chaos of it. You only get a few select organizations, like the Patriots for the most obvious example, who clearly have a grasp of how to win the draft and do it consistently. Everyone else are basically chickens with their heads cut off. I mean, you think Denver's choices were bad? Look at Seattle's first pick. Look at the Browns taking a 6-7th round guy in the 3rd. Chiefs took the inevitable-bust combine-stud instead of watching actual game tape. At #11! I mean there is no end to the shenanigans.

barryr
04-28-2012, 06:18 AM
I don't see how it is so hard to understand. The NFL draft is two entirely different skill sets. Getting the players you want, yes. But the other side is getting value out of your picks. Since it's a team game, the sum of your additions to the team needs to be greater than its parts. That means you need to get the absolute best value for each pick, even if it means sometimes sacrificing the "best" player on your board for the "next best" player on your board, so you can make sure you are able to get value for all the other picks you're making. You definitely do not reach for someone in the early rounds, just because he's there and you like him, unless you REALLY like him. And in most of those cases, there will be several other suitors who REALLY like him too, so he won't last that long in the first place.

Yep, the teams that tend to run their drafts well and not overdraft players and get value for their trades tend to be the top teams in the NFL year in and year out. They do not reach for players very often, if at all, and tend to know which teams to deal with knowing they will probably get the better end of it.

Bacchus
04-28-2012, 06:24 AM
EFX has no clue on how to play a game. And lets get it right the draft is a game with 32 players. We have consistently given too much to move up. the 120 pick vs GB going 10 picks higher for the 163rd. Then they are taking players who are not in jeopardy of being taken. If I played poker with these guys I would have Elways super bowl rings. Its absolutely a travesty, they need some help. I don't even care if the players are not who I would have taken. The players are only half the equation.

We read this EVERY single year on every team's forum. How EVERY team does this. The thing is YOU rely too much on mock drafts. It's just like what Fox said about Wolfe. He said they look at much more film than most of these people writing the mock drafts and feel they know what they want and are l;ooking for. As far as Asweiler he was moving up the charts since his pro day and some thought he could go in the first round.

Jesus Christ people take your finger off the panic button.

As far as not getting value, if Denver wants to trade down and there is only one team asking to trade you are pretty much not going to maximize your value.

cmhargrove
04-28-2012, 06:35 AM
When does the draft ever go as we expected? How many here were screaming for Dareus instead of Miller last year? Not a single one of us picked Orlando Franklin. And on, and on.

This team may have taken the biggest leap in team history with the addition of Manning + the two top free agent Tight Ends this year. We also scored the best Defensive Coordinator option available, and people around here fail to look at the total sum of what they achieved.

I'll just wait to see this team hit the field before I lose any sleep. Are there questions marks, sure, but I'm excited to see these pieces fit together.

Drek
04-28-2012, 06:51 AM
When does the draft ever go as we expected? How many here were screaming for Dareus instead of Miller last year? Not a single one of us picked Orlando Franklin. And on, and on.

This team may have taken the biggest leap in team history with the addition of Manning + the two top free agent Tight Ends this year. We also scored the best Defensive Coordinator option available, and people around here fail to look at the total sum of what they achieved.

I'll just wait to see this team hit the field before I lose any sleep. Are there questions marks, sure, but I'm excited to see these pieces fit together.

Sure. But they're still sacrificing value. Imagine how much better this team could be if they weren't so pre-occupied with getting their man crushes at the expense of good value.

Binkythefrog
04-28-2012, 06:53 AM
I also do not understand all of the angst here. The draft is a crap-shoot and I think even the best teams only get a couple of serious impact players a year.

Since we talk alot about the Pats - I took a quick look at their picks in 2011:

1st Round Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
2nd Round Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia (played in 2 games)
2nd Round Shane Vereen, RB, Cal (15 carries 57 yards)
3rd Round Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU (87 carries 441 yards)
3rd Round Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas (didn't play)
5th Round Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU (played in 7 games)
5th Round Lee Smith, TE, Marshall (cut)
6th Round Markell Carter, OLB, Central Arkansas (Practice squad)
7th Round Malcolm Williams, CB, Marshall

It looks like they got two solid players here.. but its early. So I took a look at their 2009 draft:

2a Pat Chung, SS, Oregon
2b Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
2c Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
2d Sebastian Vollmer, OL, Houston
3a Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
3b Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
4 Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State
5 George Bussey, OL, Louisville
6a Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii
6b Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky
7a Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State
7b Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech

I could be wrong here but I only see a couple of impact players (Chung, Vollmer, maybe Tate)

The Broncos 2009 draft was pretty bad from the fans point of iew (Moreno, Ayers, Alphonso Smith, McBath, Quinn, David Bruton, Seth Olsen, Mckinley (RIP), Brandstater, Schuleter) - but as far as players making a contribution - i'd say it is equal to the Patriots or slightly worse - (Ayers, Bruton)

Finally, USA Today in 2009 gave the best draft grade to the Giants and Eagles.

Giants draft:

1 - Hakeem Nicks
2- Clint Sintim
2- William Beatty
3-Rameses Barden
3- Travis Beckum
4- Andre Brown
5 - Rhett Bomar
6 - DeAndre Wright
7- Stoney Woodson

They hit it big on Nicks, and maybe got a couple other contributors... but this draft doesn't blow my mind as being amazing for the Giants and supposedly it was amazing.

We've gotten players at positions that we felt needed some help, but they aren't quite the same players we would have hoped for given our Youtube scouting and mock draft watching. I'm excited to see these guys play, and yeah maybe according to the draftniks they weren't the best VALUE, but i think value goes out the window after a year or two.

For those who didn't like what you saw.. how would you guys have liked to see the draft go, and what players would have made you happy? I'm just curious.

barryr
04-28-2012, 07:01 AM
I also do not understand all of the angst here. The draft is a crap-shoot and I think even the best teams only get a couple of serious impact players a year.

Since we talk alot about the Pats - I took a quick look at their picks in 2011:

1st Round Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
2nd Round Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia (played in 2 games)
2nd Round Shane Vereen, RB, Cal (15 carries 57 yards)
3rd Round Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU (87 carries 441 yards)
3rd Round Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas (didn't play)
5th Round Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU (played in 7 games)
5th Round Lee Smith, TE, Marshall (cut)
6th Round Markell Carter, OLB, Central Arkansas (Practice squad)
7th Round Malcolm Williams, CB, Marshall

It looks like they got two solid players here.. but its early. So I took a look at their 2009 draft:

2a Pat Chung, SS, Oregon
2b Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
2c Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
2d Sebastian Vollmer, OL, Houston
3a Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
3b Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
4 Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State
5 George Bussey, OL, Louisville
6a Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii
6b Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky
7a Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State
7b Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech

I could be wrong here but I only see a couple of impact players (Chung, Vollmer, maybe Tate)

The Broncos 2009 draft was pretty bad from the fans point of iew (Moreno, Ayers, Alphonso Smith, McBath, Quinn, David Bruton, Seth Olsen, Mckinley (RIP), Brandstater, Schuleter) - but as far as players making a contribution - i'd say it is equal to the Patriots or slightly worse - (Ayers, Bruton)

Finally, USA Today in 2009 gave the best draft grade to the Giants and Eagles.

Giants draft:

1 - Hakeem Nicks
2- Clint Sintim
2- William Beatty
3-Rameses Barden
3- Travis Beckum
4- Andre Brown
5 - Rhett Bomar
6 - DeAndre Wright
7- Stoney Woodson

They hit it big on Nicks, and maybe got a couple other contributors... but this draft doesn't blow my mind as being amazing for the Giants and supposedly it was amazing.

We've gotten players at positions that we felt needed some help, but they aren't quite the same players we would have hoped for given our Youtube scouting and mock draft watching. I'm excited to see these guys play, and yeah maybe according to the draftniks they weren't the best VALUE, but i think value goes out the window after a year or two.

For those who didn't like what you saw.. how would you guys have liked to see the draft go, and what players would have made you happy? I'm just curious.

It has more to do with the Broncos pissing away drafts for like a decade, especially when it came to drafting defensive players. Hopefully now they will do better, but the teams that are usually contenders every year, have not had crappy drafts the last decade. The Pats like to stockpile picks and then they use them to take a player nobody else thinks that much about, draft them too high, and hope they can show how smart they are. They did that again this year with the safety Wilson.

colonelbeef
04-28-2012, 07:02 AM
I also do not understand all of the angst here. The draft is a crap-shoot and I think even the best teams only get a couple of serious impact players a year.

Since we talk alot about the Pats - I took a quick look at their picks in 2011:

1st Round Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
2nd Round Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia (played in 2 games)
2nd Round Shane Vereen, RB, Cal (15 carries 57 yards)
3rd Round Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU (87 carries 441 yards)
3rd Round Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas (didn't play)
5th Round Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU (played in 7 games)
5th Round Lee Smith, TE, Marshall (cut)
6th Round Markell Carter, OLB, Central Arkansas (Practice squad)
7th Round Malcolm Williams, CB, Marshall

It looks like they got two solid players here.. but its early. So I took a look at their 2009 draft:

2a Pat Chung, SS, Oregon
2b Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
2c Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
2d Sebastian Vollmer, OL, Houston
3a Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
3b Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
4 Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State
5 George Bussey, OL, Louisville
6a Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii
6b Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky
7a Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State
7b Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech

I could be wrong here but I only see a couple of impact players (Chung, Vollmer, maybe Tate)

The Broncos 2009 draft was pretty bad from the fans point of iew (Moreno, Ayers, Alphonso Smith, McBath, Quinn, David Bruton, Seth Olsen, Mckinley (RIP), Brandstater, Schuleter) - but as far as players making a contribution - i'd say it is equal to the Patriots or slightly worse - (Ayers, Bruton)

Finally, USA Today in 2009 gave the best draft grade to the Giants and Eagles.

Giants draft:

1 - Hakeem Nicks
2- Clint Sintim
2- William Beatty
3-Rameses Barden
3- Travis Beckum
4- Andre Brown
5 - Rhett Bomar
6 - DeAndre Wright
7- Stoney Woodson

They hit it big on Nicks, and maybe got a couple other contributors... but this draft doesn't blow my mind as being amazing for the Giants and supposedly it was amazing.

We've gotten players at positions that we felt needed some help, but they aren't quite the same players we would have hoped for given our Youtube scouting and mock draft watching. I'm excited to see these guys play, and yeah maybe according to the draftniks they weren't the best VALUE, but i think value goes out the window after a year or two.

For those who didn't like what you saw.. how would you guys have liked to see the draft go, and what players would have made you happy? I'm just curious.

Great post.

Vegas_Bronco
04-28-2012, 07:03 AM
I am done watching this draft...the op is spot on...abismal stewardship of the picks. We needed numbers to increase odds of landing core depth instead we are giving up picks (decreasing our odds) to grab players that are already available in FA at league minimum salaries. Where is the damn oline depth?? Secondary depth?? And dline depth?? This is where we need ed help in the sraft and thus far weve touched on a fragment of our needs and its day 3.

cmhargrove
04-28-2012, 07:06 AM
Sure. But they're still sacrificing value. Imagine how much better this team could be if they weren't so pre-occupied with getting their man crushes at the expense of good value.

I can't argue about the value statement because the data is incomplete. We need to see these guys on Sundays, not on a "draft analysis show.". I'm still very excited for the future of this team, and hope we pull a few gems on Saturday.

colonelbeef
04-28-2012, 07:07 AM
The patriots have had horrible draft after horrible draft.

All of the picks in the world doesn't mean jack **** unless you get good players with those picks. "Value" is a worthless buzzword.

The bottom line is getting players you believe in and hoping they pan out. We just have to hope that the FO knows what they are doing.

Drek
04-28-2012, 07:21 AM
1st Round Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
2nd Round Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia (played in 2 games)
2nd Round Shane Vereen, RB, Cal (15 carries 57 yards)
3rd Round Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU (87 carries 441 yards)
3rd Round Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas (didn't play)
5th Round Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU (played in 7 games)
5th Round Lee Smith, TE, Marshall (cut)
6th Round Markell Carter, OLB, Central Arkansas (Practice squad)
7th Round Malcolm Williams, CB, Marshall
Solder is a beast, Cannon was a contributor as a 5th round pick. Stevan Ridley will be their feature RB next season. Ras-I Dowling was a day one starter until he was hurt and put on IR. Mallett looks like a damn good backup to Brady who probably succeeds him as their starter. Vereen has been blocked by a host of solid RBs, which will also clear up for them next season and he will likely play a larger role.

So they drafted two day one starters with their first two picks, hit on at least one of the two RBs they took next, then took a quality backup QB in the 3rd and found a solid OT who contributed as a rookie in the 5th. Five of their first six picks look very promising already, with the sixth guy (Vereen) blocked and likely to just now get a chance in 2012.

I'd say that was a monster draft and is a big reason why they got back to the Super Bowl.

2a Pat Chung, SS, Oregon
2b Ron Brace, DT, Boston College
2c Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut
2d Sebastian Vollmer, OL, Houston
3a Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina
3b Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida
4 Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State
5 George Bussey, OL, Louisville
6a Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii
6b Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky
7a Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State
7b Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech

I could be wrong here but I only see a couple of impact players (Chung, Vollmer, maybe Tate)
Edelman has been a great value for a 7th. Brace and Butler have been disappointments but then this is one of their weaker classes in the last decade and they still pulled out four worthwhile guys.

We've gotten players at positions that we felt needed some help, but they aren't quite the same players we would have hoped for given our Youtube scouting and mock draft watching. I'm excited to see these guys play, and yeah maybe according to the draftniks they weren't the best VALUE, but i think value goes out the window after a year or two.

For those who didn't like what you saw.. how would you guys have liked to see the draft go, and what players would have made you happy? I'm just curious.
The problem isn't what draftniks thought. Its the reality of value v. cost.

I like the Wolfe pick. I don't think he makes it to 57 as 3-4 teams who want a 5 tech would grab him. If he's their guy at DT then go for it, he's definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

Picking Osweiler is where we get into trouble. Not Osweiler himself, but using #57 on him when guys like David, Randle, and Hayward (all positions of need) were still on the board. The FO was unwilling to take ANY risk about getting Osweiler in order to potentially add another elite talent.

The FO was clearly willing to trade up in the third, does anyone really think Osweiler wouldn't have been available at 67 instead? This is the issue I have. We could have gotten Lavonte David AND Osweiler. Hell, we gave more for #67 than the Packers gave for #62, so we could have moved up there just as easily if we would have made some phone calls.

Obviously the response to this is "but then we don't have Hillman!" Well only one RB went after we traded up for Hillman and he was a 220 pound power back to Baltimore. So we have no reason to believe Hillman was going to come off the board in the 3rd period. Considering that Miller, Turbin, and Polk are all still available it also is quite obvious that even if we had lost out on Hillman there is a large group of quality RBs still available.

I don't have a problem with the players, I have a problem with a FO that got worse trade value than every other team

If the Broncos had played the first two days right they could have:
1. gotten an extra forth from both New England (#126) and Tampa Bay (#120).

2. Still selected Wolfe at #36.

3. Selected Lavonte David at #57.

4. Traded #87 and #137 to New England for #62 where they select Osweiler.

5. Have picks #101, #108, #120, and #126 in the 4th round.

6. Trade picks #101 and #108 to the Colts for #92 and #136, selecting Hillman at #92.

So instead of having #101, #108, and #137 would you rather have #120, #126, #137 and Lavonte David?

That is effectively what we cost ourselves with sloppy trades and poor draft value management.

Drek
04-28-2012, 07:24 AM
I can't argue about the value statement because the data is incomplete. We need to see these guys on Sundays, not on a "draft analysis show.". I'm still very excited for the future of this team, and hope we pull a few gems on Saturday.

No we don't. It doesn't matter if Osweiler is a real heir to Manning and dominates the league. We still would have given up draft value we could have used elsewhere to get him. This isn't either/or, we could have still gotten Osweiler a little later without giving up the huge value on the board when we picked him.

If you paid a nickel a share on some penny stocks you'd be happy if they hit and made you a bunch of money but you still overpaid for those penny stocks in the first place.

barryr
04-28-2012, 07:42 AM
Solder is a beast, Cannon was a contributor as a 5th round pick. Stevan Ridley will be their feature RB next season. Ras-I Dowling was a day one starter until he was hurt and put on IR. Mallett looks like a damn good backup to Brady who probably succeeds him as their starter. Vereen has been blocked by a host of solid RBs, which will also clear up for them next season and he will likely play a larger role.

So they drafted two day one starters with their first two picks, hit on at least one of the two RBs they took next, then took a quality backup QB in the 3rd and found a solid OT who contributed as a rookie in the 5th. Five of their first six picks look very promising already, with the sixth guy (Vereen) blocked and likely to just now get a chance in 2012.

I'd say that was a monster draft and is a big reason why they got back to the Super Bowl.


Edelman has been a great value for a 7th. Brace and Butler have been disappointments but then this is one of their weaker classes in the last decade and they still pulled out four worthwhile guys.


The problem isn't what draftniks thought. Its the reality of value v. cost.

I like the Wolfe pick. I don't think he makes it to 57 as 3-4 teams who want a 5 tech would grab him. If he's their guy at DT then go for it, he's definitely worth a 2nd round pick.

Picking Osweiler is where we get into trouble. Not Osweiler himself, but using #57 on him when guys like David, Randle, and Hayward (all positions of need) were still on the board. The FO was unwilling to take ANY risk about getting Osweiler in order to potentially add another elite talent.

The FO was clearly willing to trade up in the third, does anyone really think Osweiler wouldn't have been available at 67 instead? This is the issue I have. We could have gotten Lavonte David AND Osweiler. Hell, we gave more for #67 than the Packers gave for #62, so we could have moved up there just as easily if we would have made some phone calls.

Obviously the response to this is "but then we don't have Hillman!" Well only one RB went after we traded up for Hillman and he was a 220 pound power back to Baltimore. So we have no reason to believe Hillman was going to come off the board in the 3rd period. Considering that Miller, Turbin, and Polk are all still available it also is quite obvious that even if we had lost out on Hillman there is a large group of quality RBs still available.

I don't have a problem with the players, I have a problem with a FO that got worse trade value than every other team

If the Broncos had played the first two days right they could have:
1. gotten an extra forth from both New England (#126) and Tampa Bay (#120).

2. Still selected Wolfe at #36.

3. Selected Lavonte David at #57.

4. Traded #87 and #137 to New England for #62 where they select Osweiler.

5. Have picks #101, #108, #120, and #126 in the 4th round.

6. Trade picks #101 and #108 to the Colts for #92 and #136, selecting Hillman at #92.

So instead of having #101, #108, and #137 would you rather have #120, #126, #137 and Lavonte David?

That is effectively what we cost ourselves with sloppy trades and poor draft value management.

Very well explained. The Broncos did not handle the trades very well at all and lost value in each one it seems. For a team that decided, at least so far, that free agency wasn't how they would build their team, and would use the draft, but then use a high pick on a QB who is a project after making their big and maybe only real big signing in free agency. Sure, teams can look to win now and still build their teams, but again, this shows that the Broncos believe their current roster is a contender and I think they are wrong about that. Teams that are true contenders and are solid everywhere take backup QB's in the 2nd round, or if aren't sold on their starter, and trade up for a smallish RB to play a role who isn't an every down back. You do this if you feel you are great and just need pieces and not foundations, which the Broncos think they are sitting.

houghtam
04-28-2012, 07:54 AM
I still don't see what is so hard to understand in the value vs. players debate. Let's take 2006 for example. The Broncos selected Elvis Dumervil in the 4th round. Pretty good value, right? Looking back based on his production, probably could be a first rounder, right? So let's say they spend a first rounder on him instead. Now the Broncos miss out on Jay Cutler.

If a player has a grade that the entire NFL has several rounds below where you do, you don't select him high anyway, because that's not getting good value.

houghtam
04-28-2012, 08:45 AM
Saying the draft is a crapshoot is akin to saying Frasier wasn't funny. It was funny, alright...you just didn't understand the jokes. Not that there's anything wrong with that. America's Funniest Home Videos was funny too...in its own way.

nickademus
04-28-2012, 09:01 AM
EFX has no clue on how to play a game. And lets get it right the draft is a game with 32 players. We have consistently given too much to move up. the 120 pick vs GB going 10 picks higher for the 163rd. Then they are taking players who are not in jeopardy of being taken. If I played poker with these guys I would have Elways super bowl rings. Its absolutely a travesty, they need some help. I don't even care if the players are not who I would have taken. The players are only half the equation.

I agree about the value of these picks. but what really pisses me off is the picks. We have added a guy at dt who is rotational at best, a QB who throws like he is 5'10" but is 6'6" and a RB who will be fourth string behind willis, noshow, and Fannin. I was willing to give EFX a break after the DT pick but Oswiler is horrible especially when the talent next year will be so much deeper at QB. Did Shanny sneak in and make these picks? It sure feels like a shanny draft.

Gort
04-28-2012, 09:09 AM
LOL at all the arm chair gms saying Elway and the Broncos need a better front office. The front office is kicking ass IMO. Broncos improved the team this offseason a great deal. Also I like Wolfe, he's athletic and IMO can get sacks in the NFL with Doom and Miller on the outside.

i don't recall you as as being a crazy poster, but that's just crazy.

Gort
04-28-2012, 09:10 AM
I agree about the value of these picks. but what really pisses me off is the picks. We have added a guy at dt who is rotational at best, a QB who throws like he is 5'10" but is 6'6" and a RB who will be fourth string behind willis, noshow, and Fannin. I was willing to give EFX a break after the DT pick but Oswiler is horrible especially when the talent next year will be so much deeper at QB. Did Shanny sneak in and make these picks? It sure feels like a shanny draft.

didn't Shanny take Clarett in the 4th? now i'm worried.

Binkythefrog
04-28-2012, 09:34 AM
Nice rebuttal Drek.. Agree on the value issue... Looks like we could have done better. Our picks will all have to contribute, we won't be able to afford any busts in this draft.

I think building in the draft is important, but I don't think this dooms the Broncos to failure. I'm just hoping our free agent acquisitions and coaching changes (del rio) help compensate for of the trading issues and that we get another draftee from last year (Moore) to step up and actually play well.

2KBack
04-28-2012, 09:43 AM
Never has a draft gone by that half of any teams fanbase isn't pissed at the outcome...if it isn't that the team didn't pick their favorite players....or that they didn't get the abstract "Value."

I say abstract since the value of the pick is only determined by the player once he is on the team. I personally don't give 2 ****s where a guy was drafted if he becomes a quality contributor

Drek
04-28-2012, 09:43 AM
Nice rebuttal Drek.. Agree on the value issue... Looks like we could have done better. Our picks will all have to contribute, we won't be able to afford any busts in this draft.

I think building in the draft is important, but I don't think this dooms the Broncos to failure. I'm just hoping our free agent acquisitions and coaching changes (del rio) help compensate for of the trading issues and that we get another draftee from last year (Moore) to step up and actually play well.

It definitely isn't a damning issue. but you can't keep giving up value like this. We are going to miss on some picks, that is the reality of the draft. When you maximize value you can absorb those busts.

Look at your New England example. They've missed on a lot of picks but they've had so damn many that it largely makes up for it. You need to either put yourself in position to take a lot of quality players with lower fail rates or you need to bring in a lot of guys to compensate for failure. You can't do either if you give up value.

Honestly, I was worried about something like this coming into this off-season. The FO got spotted a LOT of help last year with all those early picks. We were able to line our board up without a lot of complications. You could mock out the picks before you in each round with a high degree of accuracy. When you pick at the back of a round though you need read and react ability. See where runs are going and when you need to trade up, recognize a slider when they're dropping and do what you need to get them. Those are the tools our FO has failed to show this draft.

Rulon Velvet Jones
04-28-2012, 09:48 AM
Christ.

CarneAsadaFries
04-28-2012, 11:56 AM
I agree about the value of these picks. but what really pisses me off is the picks. We have added a guy at dt who is rotational at best, a QB who throws like he is 5'10" but is 6'6" and a RB who will be fourth string behind willis, noshow, and Fannin. I was willing to give EFX a break after the DT pick but Oswiler is horrible especially when the talent next year will be so much deeper at QB. Did Shanny sneak in and make these picks? It sure feels like a shanny draft.

Derek Wolfe is not a rotational DT. Derek Wolfe was a Defensive Player of the year out of the Big East and notched 9.5 sacks and 70 tackles from the DT position! He's a first round talent that slipped to the second round because he doesn't necessarily look like an All-Pro DT.

Yes I understand there are concerns about Osweiler, but while everyone had him graded as a 3rd round prospect, people fail to realize that teams NEVER grade the same way as prognosticators do. Every draft there are players that fall 2 or 3 rounds that no one can understand, but every team in the NFL passes for one reason or another. Additionally, we dont know what information is getting passed along in the war rooms. All the time, after drafts you hear about how certain teams were targeting certain players and thats the entire reason they "reached" to get a guy. A player is considered a reach by the media because their boards arent the same as professional NFL boards.

Osweiler was one of the top QBs available, and even at a 3rd round grade, as a premier position, Osweiler was going to get taken and soon. Teams "reach" for QBs. Every year, QBs sneak into the first second and third round that prior to the draft we thought there was no way. If Elway truly believes Osweiler has potential (6'7", hangs tough in the pocket, can make all throws, needs to work on decision making and footwork) then that is around the slot he needs to be taken.

As for Hillman, there is no chance a guy drafted in third is going to be 4th string when the season starts. Coming from the MWC, he's not as well known a name, which makes him a harder prospect for prognosticators to determine where they'll go in the draft. Living here in San Diego however, where he's a rockstar (rushing for over 1600 yards the past two years, breaking some of Marshall Faulk's records), it was well expected that he'd make it into the 3rd round. Moreover, many articles indicated that his predraft workouts and combine were moving him up draft boards. With Lamichael James gone, Denver viewed him as the RB needed. The facts are we need a running back, and a 3rd down back at that, because McGahee isn't as strong in those aspects.

Also you can't use the argument that because only one RB was taken after Hillman that no one was going to take an RB. NFL team draft boards are composed of multiple players that a team might select when their pick comes up. If Hillman was taken off multiple teams boards (btw, the highest 3rd down back left on the board at the time), then several teams probably changed what position they were looking to draft or to trade up to acquire.

Lastly, you can only make trades based on what the market bears when you're making the trade. A team may have an easier time trading or get a better deal, because the team they're trading with feels either more confident or less confident in making a trade at that particular time. Obviously the Vikings were more stressed about getting Harrison Smith when Baltimore came around than when our 25th pick came around.

cutthemdown
04-28-2012, 12:06 PM
Most of these players, in the whole draft, will be avg players at best. Just how it is. The fans around here are funny! They think they know what value is. They think they know what trades should be, when really you know nothing.

Trading down and up aren't always easy and the stupid chart they used to use is no longer used. If you want to move down, and you can get a player you like whether you get the 115th pick, or the 120th pick, you do it. You don't care about the 5 spots because you feel the pool of players will be fine to pick from. A stupid chart means nothing to a real GM. They are only concerned with getting the same player and adding another pick. If the other pick is slightly lower then fans think it should be they don't care. Real fans don't care either.

Bronco fans on the Mane are sissy's

houghtam
04-28-2012, 12:11 PM
Most of these players, in the whole draft, will be avg players at best. Just how it is. The fans around here are funny! They think they know what value is. They think they know what trades should be, when really you know nothing.

Trading down and up aren't always easy and the stupid chart they used to use is no longer used. If you want to move down, and you can get a player you like whether you get the 115th pick, or the 120th pick, you do it. You don't care about the 5 spots because you feel the pool of players will be fine to pick from. A stupid chart means nothing to a real GM. They are only concerned with getting the same player and adding another pick. If the other pick is slightly lower then fans think it should be they don't care. Real fans don't care either.

Bronco fans on the Mane are sissy's

It's not about "the chart". "The chart" has only been brought up in this thread by people who are defending the Broncos' picks. The people arguing value aren't talking about "the chart".

It's about taking players way before anyone else would have taken them.

cutthemdown
04-28-2012, 12:34 PM
It's not about "the chart". "The chart" has only been brought up in this thread by people who are defending the Broncos' picks. The people arguing value aren't talking about "the chart".

It's about taking players way before anyone else would have taken them.

And how do you know if any other team was going to take them? The media and draft prognosticators every yr get a lot wrong once you get out of the first round. It's stupid to be upset if Broncos used a 4th rounder, on someone you thought was going to be there in the 5th lol.

Anikai
04-28-2012, 12:47 PM
lots of whining about value and charts, draft boards. Lol who cares, outside of drafting Edward from twilight, this was a pretty good draft.

Cito Pelon
04-28-2012, 12:58 PM
Meh, I think Wolfe will be a pleasant surprise. Osweiler obviously there's not the instant gratification factor there, but probably a smart pick. The RB, the OL, the CB, probably they'll be upgrades and ST guys at least, maybe got the returners we needed.

I can see how people are frustrated with "value" issues and overdrafting.

BroncoBeavis
04-28-2012, 01:05 PM
I agree about the value of these picks. but what really pisses me off is the picks. We have added a guy at dt who is rotational at best, a QB who throws like he is 5'10" but is 6'6" and a RB who will be fourth string behind willis, noshow, and Fannin. I was willing to give EFX a break after the DT pick but Oswiler is horrible especially when the talent next year will be so much deeper at QB. Did Shanny sneak in and make these picks? It sure feels like a shanny draft.

There was one comment after the Oz pick that said something to the effect of "It's good to take a QB this year because we'll be drafting late the next couple years with Manning."

As if we'll never get another chance to pick 57th again.

barryr
04-28-2012, 01:19 PM
There was one comment after the Oz pick that said something to the effect of "It's good to take a QB this year because we'll be drafting late the next couple years with Manning."

As if we'll never get another chance to pick 57th again.

Yep, Dalton was a 2nd rounder and doing just fine. The Broncos could likely get a QB in the next draft if they chose.

Archer81
04-28-2012, 01:40 PM
I dont get the ZOMG they drafted him THERE? line of thought. If they end up being players who produce for you, who cares where they were taken?

Silliness.

:Broncos:

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 02:27 PM
I dont get the ZOMG they drafted him THERE? line of thought. If they end up being players who produce for you, who cares where they were taken?

Silliness.

:Broncos:

Players are ranked higher for a reason. Just because you have a system for turning 6th rounders into starters doesn't mean you should omit first rounders. If you can turn a 6th rounder into a starter, you should be able to get a HOFer when you have an entire draft pool to choose from.

There's value to be had late but there's more value to be had early if you can sift through the players and find them.

errand
04-28-2012, 02:29 PM
It does feel like they may be outsmarting themselves overall.

...or it's possible they outsmarted all the draftnicks on this message board.

Let's see how they perform before we start making bold statements like the FO doesn't know what they're doing.

NFLBRONCO
04-28-2012, 03:01 PM
Never has a draft gone by that half of any teams fanbase isn't pissed at the outcome...if it isn't that the team didn't pick their favorite players....or that they didn't get the abstract "Value."

I say abstract since the value of the pick is only determined by the player once he is on the team. I personally don't give 2 ****s where a guy was drafted if he becomes a quality contributor


Yep this is how I look at the players I love or hate in the draft what matters is what do we get on sundays.

Hillman I think we could have gotten him today instead of yesterday and surely I doubt we needed to jump 20 spots to get him. I'll hope for reward and not care about where he was taken once TC starts.

QB at 57 when your trying to win a SB in next 3 yrs wouldn't Randle make more sense to get us more explosive on offense. I bet smarter FO's would I bet. This is a head scratcher. Now that he's here I hope he turns into something good down the road .


I still think EFX need to get alot better with trades and moving in draft though esp high in draft.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 03:16 PM
...or it's possible they outsmarted all the draftnicks on this message board.

Let's see how they perform before we start making bold statements like the FO doesn't know what they're doing.

I guess if you actually believe the guys they got were absolutely the preferred targets, you're good with what happened. I'd like to think the Broncos had their preferred targets and were shooting for a little more potential than what they ended up with. So they traded down for peanuts compared to other trades made and then it feels like after all the maneuvering, they mostly ended up with role players.

We definitely have to see how everyone plays but the initial feeling is like they focused too much on maneuvering and didn't get any real difference makers to show for it.

Wes Mantooth
04-28-2012, 03:23 PM
if you are frustrated, remember, your Bronco fan membership is completely voluntary.

anon
04-28-2012, 03:30 PM
I guess if you actually believe the guys they got were absolutely the preferred targets, you're good with what happened. I'd like to think the Broncos had their preferred targets and were shooting for a little more potential than what they ended up with. So they traded down for peanuts compared to other trades made and then it feels like after all the maneuvering, they mostly ended up with role players.

We definitely have to see how everyone plays but the initial feeling is like they focused too much on maneuvering and didn't get any real difference makers to show for it.

When you're drafting 25th, I don't think it's a bad thing to pick up a bunch of solid role/depth players, hoping that one of them pans into a star. At the very least, you are improving the overall talent level of your team. Doing this consistently every draft is how you build a real contender.

I'm neither thrilled or upset with the draft, but I'm in agreement with the philosophy that seems to be at work. As others have mentioned, save for perhaps Osweiler, we addressed areas of need with players who consistently produced in college and are known to be hardworking competitors, increasing the odds that they will become productive players.

Cali Euros
04-28-2012, 10:31 PM
Seems a lot of people were upset with where we took Wolfe. I've seen some people say we could have had him in the 4th which is absolutely false. Wolfe knew he would go in the 2nd round, he had a lot of contact with a lot of 3-4 teams. I'm pretty sure everyone here will agree that Baltimore usually does a good job drafting players, well had Courtney Upshaw not fallen to them the pick before us, they probably would have drafted Wolfe as they talked to him more than any other team in the draft.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 10:35 PM
When you're drafting 25th, I don't think it's a bad thing to pick up a bunch of solid role/depth players, hoping that one of them pans into a star. At the very least, you are improving the overall talent level of your team. Doing this consistently every draft is how you build a real contender.

I'm neither thrilled or upset with the draft, but I'm in agreement with the philosophy that seems to be at work. As others have mentioned, save for perhaps Osweiler, we addressed areas of need with players who consistently produced in college and are known to be hardworking competitors, increasing the odds that they will become productive players.

You're absolutely right, role players have a very important role. Just like you said, however, you get a role player hoping he can turn into a star. For some reason, unlike past drafts, nobody in this one jumps out at me as a "could be a superstar" kinda guy. It may be my perception, the fact that I didn't have time to get into the draft this year like I usually do, or that the class was just crap. I don't think the draft was bad at all but just something doesn't quite feel like usual.

bronco610
04-28-2012, 10:37 PM
Good lord, can we at least see how well the draftees do before having a soap opra, Jesus !!!!!

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 10:38 PM
Good lord, can we at least see how well the draftees do before having a soap opra, Jesus !!!!!

WTF are you talking about?

You appear to be the only person being dramatic right now.

broncocalijohn
04-28-2012, 10:39 PM
So far this might be the worst Broncos draft I remember. Every pick is wtf.

Totally. I take it you were not a fan during the McDaniels years? How about some of Shanahan drafts? Stop being such a drama queen and relax and think about the statement you just made.

bronco610
04-28-2012, 10:39 PM
Td was a 6th round pick, I can only imagine if the Mane was around then with these same posters what would have been posted that year.

cutthemdown
04-28-2012, 10:40 PM
I told people Broncos don't want big fat DT but know one would listen.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 10:40 PM
Totally. I take it you were not a fan during the McDaniels years? How about some of Shanahan drafts? Stop being such a drama queen and relax and think about the statement you just made.

In terms of name recognition, this might have been the lowest. Maybe his "WTF" is "Who the F?" in which case it could be acceptable for a passive fan.

bronco610
04-28-2012, 10:42 PM
WTF are you talking about?

You appear to be the only person being dramatic right now.

I'm sorry all the posts I have read in this thread that talk about loss of value and what not must be My imagination. Take the title of the thread for instance..... I must be imaging the whole thing.

cutthemdown
04-28-2012, 10:51 PM
Td was a 6th round pick, I can only imagine if the Mane was around then with these same posters what would have been posted that year.

I always look for the draft the prior 2 yrs to look for real help. Then getting help from rookies a bonus. Last yr was great but we had some really high picks.

For Broncos to make real strides with the young players we need Harris, Carter, Moore to improve and get better. Decker and Thomas going into that spot in career where you see the big jump if you are going to see it. That 3rd yr they should be ready to contribute all 16 games every play.

On defense I'm really hoping Miller makes another jump as well.

if Warren or Vickerson can get back and play well we could be really good on defense. If you get something big from Wolfe that is a bonus, but hopefully he can play a lot of plays this yr.

BroncoMan4ever
04-28-2012, 10:54 PM
people need to chill the **** out. jesus christ, every year we get complaints from guys on message boards who think they know better than guys getting paid millions to do this.

the cost right now isn't the issue. the supposed loss of value on trades is not the issue, the issue is whether or not EFX were right.

do you really think any fans or anyone in the front office is going to give a rats ass about losing point value in a trade back with NE and then Tampa if Wolfe is the real deal? will any of us care in 3 years about using that number 57 pick on Osweiler if Elway is right and he becomes an elite QB? will we complain if any of the head scratcher picks we bitch about now go on to become good players for this team?

the draft is less than 24 hours old and we haven't seen anything yet. all we have done is watch a draft and get confused because guys we as uniformed sports fans like got passed over or were disregarded by the guys who studied everything about these players for months.

so once again....relax.

bronco610
04-28-2012, 11:16 PM
people need to chill the **** out. jesus christ, every year we get complaints from guys on message boards who think they know better than guys getting paid millions to do this.

the cost right now isn't the issue. the supposed loss of value on trades is not the issue, the issue is whether or not EFX were right.

do you really think any fans or anyone in the front office is going to give a rats ass about losing point value in a trade back with NE and then Tampa if Wolfe is the real deal? will any of us care in 3 years about using that number 57 pick on Osweiler if Elway is right and he becomes an elite QB? will we complain if any of the head scratcher picks we b**** about now go on to become good players for this team?

the draft is less than 24 hours old and we haven't seen anything yet. all we have done is watch a draft and get confused because guys we as uniformed sports fans like got passed over or were disregarded by the guys who studied everything about these players for months.

so once again....relax.

exactly !!!!!!!

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 11:30 PM
I'm sorry all the posts I have read in this thread that talk about loss of value and what not must be My imagination. Take the title of the thread for instance..... I must be imaging the whole thing.

They were talking about the trades, dunce. Look at the OPs post 4 or 5 posts later:

It not even about the picks. Who can say now. But knowing how to get where you are going is a skill. Its Xanders he has no clue how to make trades. It has been like this for a few years.

That One Guy
04-28-2012, 11:34 PM
people need to chill the **** out. jesus christ, every year we get complaints from guys on message boards who think they know better than guys getting paid millions to do this.

the cost right now isn't the issue. the supposed loss of value on trades is not the issue, the issue is whether or not EFX were right.

do you really think any fans or anyone in the front office is going to give a rats ass about losing point value in a trade back with NE and then Tampa if Wolfe is the real deal? will any of us care in 3 years about using that number 57 pick on Osweiler if Elway is right and he becomes an elite QB? will we complain if any of the head scratcher picks we b**** about now go on to become good players for this team?

the draft is less than 24 hours old and we haven't seen anything yet. all we have done is watch a draft and get confused because guys we as uniformed sports fans like got passed over or were disregarded by the guys who studied everything about these players for months.

so once again....relax.

Heyyy... I haven't got my O'mane uniform. Is TJ issuing them or do we have to buy them somewhere?

And as for the rest, at least you recognize that it's not really the player anyone's criticizing. If people want to criticize the trades themselves, that's an entirely different story. It's conversation at a point where we just have nothing else to do for a few more months.

bronco610
04-29-2012, 12:13 AM
They were talking about the trades, dunce. Look at the OPs post 4 or 5 posts later:

You call me a dunce? Do you really believe xanders has anything to do with who we pick or how the draft is run..... Please!!!! His job is to order pizzas and I doubt he has any input at that. As far as value of trades it is the same thing, if the players we pick up turn out nobody will give a s***. So yes right now we do not know how well the draft trades worked out or the value of the trades, EFX may end up being brilliant. Just because people on the board think that there is someone willing to make the trade at what this board thinks it should be, does not mean there is a team willing to make the trade at that value. Why do people not understand that. I have a "65" plymouth I believe is worth 30k but if I can't find someone to buy it at that, then I am screwed if the most anyone will offer is 20k, so I take the deal or just lose out.

houghtam
04-29-2012, 08:28 AM
You call me a dunce? Do you really believe xanders has anything to do with who we pick or how the draft is run..... Please!!!! His job is to order pizzas and I doubt he has any input at that. As far as value of trades it is the same thing, if the players we pick up turn out nobody will give a s***. So yes right now we do not know how well the draft trades worked out or the value of the trades, EFX may end up being brilliant. Just because people on the board think that there is someone willing to make the trade at what this board thinks it should be, does not mean there is a team willing to make the trade at that value. Why do people not understand that. I have a "65" plymouth I believe is worth 30k but if I can't find someone to buy it at that, then I am screwed if the most anyone will offer is 20k, so I take the deal or just lose out.

It's not even "just" about the trades, either, it's getting value out of a pick based on, as I believe rugbythug and barryr put it, the "group think" of the rest of the league. If you can get Terrell Davis in the 6th round, great. Don't take him in the first round, because you are wasting 5 rounds worth of higher picks on a player that will be there later.

Your Plymouth example is incorrect. What would be more appropriate is if you had said you attended an auction with 7 rounds, where you can bid $100k in the first round and $10k less in each subsequent round, had your eye on a '65 Plymouth, and you took it for $100k in the first round just to make sure you'd get it, when no one else at the auction would have paid more than $30k for it because when they checked it out beforehand, they discovered it wasn't all original parts. But hey, at least you got your Plymouth.

broncocalijohn
04-29-2012, 10:38 AM
It's not even "just" about the trades, either, it's getting value out of a pick based on, as I believe rugbythug and barryr put it, the "group think" of the rest of the league. If you can get Terrell Davis in the 6th round, great. Don't take him in the first round, because you are wasting 5 rounds worth of higher picks on a player that will be there later.

Your Plymouth example is incorrect. What would be more appropriate is if you had said you attended an auction with 7 rounds, where you can bid $100k in the first round and $10k less in each subsequent round, had your eye on a '65 Plymouth, and you took it for $100k in the first round just to make sure you'd get it, when no one else at the auction would have paid more than $30k for it because when they checked it out beforehand, they discovered it wasn't all original parts. But hey, at least you got your Plymouth.

Not quite on your example. Your plymouth example is that it won't be worth the $100k ever or in a very long time. A better example is that $100k Plymouth might have been bought for $30k but after working on it inside, you find that it is gold plated in all of its metal. Value goes up to $135k. You overpaid but it is actually worth more than the original cost.

houghtam
04-29-2012, 11:23 AM
Not quite on your example. Your plymouth example is that it won't be worth the $100k ever or in a very long time. A better example is that $100k Plymouth might have been bought for $30k but after working on it inside, you find that it is gold plated in all of its metal. Value goes up to $135k. You overpaid but it is actually worth more than the original cost.

You're right. Here's the most appropriate example.

You're a GM of a team who chooses a player in the 1st round that wouldn't have been picked until the 6th. The player you picked goes on to be a great player and help you win 2 Super Bowls. Meanwhile if you had picked him in the 6th like everyone else would have, you could have used your 1st to choose a player to help win 3 Super Bowls.

Everyone arguing against the value argument always brings up TD. Great. Then why didn't anyone select him before the 6th? If he was projected to be so great, why not just pick him in the 1st?

Here's a hint: the answer isn't because the draft is a crapshoot and NFL teams have no clue what they're doing.