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View Full Version : Interesting Bronco comment from Peter King in MMQB


Denver724
04-09-2012, 06:38 AM
Denver could be a package team. By that I mean the Broncos like to move around (they have in recent years), and they've got three picks in a 30-pick span (108, 120, 137). Suppose the league gets scared of Janoris Jenkins because of his sketchy background, and the best cover man in the draft is sitting there early in the second round. Could the developmental-corner-needy Broncos deal three picks to move up for him?

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/04/08/mmqb/index.html#ixzz1rYAlDvon

v2micca
04-09-2012, 06:41 AM
Denver could be a package team. By that I mean the Broncos like to move around (they have in recent years), and they've got three picks in a 30-pick span (108, 120, 137). Suppose the league gets scared of Janoris Jenkins because of his sketchy background, and the best cover man in the draft is sitting there early in the second round. Could the developmental-corner-needy Broncos deal three picks to move up for him?

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/04/08/mmqb/index.html#ixzz1rYAlDvon

As I was reading this, I thought it seemed kind of lazy to look at actions of past Front Offices and assume that the current one would follow suite. EFX didn't do much in the way of moving around until the later rounds last year. I suspect that they will not suddenly return to the wheelin' deelin' ways of McDaniels and Shanahan this year.

TonyR
04-09-2012, 06:44 AM
The problem with this is that we have a lot of needs, and giving up multiple picks to fill one of them may not be the best move unless you're really sold on the guy.

chrisp
04-09-2012, 06:48 AM
Indeed - I'm hoping we don;t move around too much and just concentrate on getting max value from each pick. That was what we seemed to do last year, but then we were picking so early in each round we arguably didn't need to do otherwise.....

Denver724
04-09-2012, 06:49 AM
I would like to see us trade down from #25 to a team with two 2's. Someone like the Rams (who have two high 2's). We can then get three good players in the second. I hope K. Wright (WR) or J. Martin (OT) fall to #25. With Houston picking right after us I can see a team wanting to jump up and grab either of them. Houston needs a WR and OT. Heck, if Martin falls to #25 I could see us taking him. We will see.

BroncoInferno
04-09-2012, 06:52 AM
He's just speculating. I could see them move up for the right player, but I would be surprised if they dumped three picks. I could see them trading a 2nd and a 3rd or 4th to move up if a guy they love drops down the board.

I think it's more likely that they try to trade down with the 1st rounder. I think they may not be crazy about the value at #25 unless Fletcher Cox, Kirkpatrick or Gilmore fall into their lap. Still, Worthy, Reyes, and Thompson all seem like early 2nd rounders to me. If they can move down, get an extra 3rd, and still get one of those guys (assuming they've given them all similar grades), I think they would rather do that. Of course, there would have to be someone willing to move up into the spot. I hate it when people say "they should have traded down/up EFX is so stupid!!!1111!!!" as if mere desire for a trade can make it happen. You have to have another club willing to trade acceptable value.

Baba Booey
04-09-2012, 06:55 AM
I'd rather just get as many new bodies as possible into camp.

McDman
04-09-2012, 06:59 AM
Janoris Jenkins is going to be awesome. If we pulled a DT in the first and got him in the second I wouldn't be too upset.

But I see no way he drops that far.

Garcia Bronco
04-09-2012, 07:25 AM
The problem with this is that we have a lot of needs, and giving up multiple picks to fill one of them may not be the best move unless you're really sold on the guy.

It's a crap shoot and ultimately based on luck,

gyldenlove
04-09-2012, 07:53 AM
As I was reading this, I thought it seemed kind of lazy to look at actions of past Front Offices and assume that the current one would follow suite. EFX didn't do much in the way of moving around until the later rounds last year. I suspect that they will not suddenly return to the wheelin' deelin' ways of McDaniels and Shanahan this year.

We moved down in the 2nd so the 49ers could get Colin Kaepernik and we traded again with the Packers in the 4th round but that was it. The rest of the traded picks we were involved in last year were results of McDaniels idiocy.

The front office last year in the draft showed that they will take the value if it is there, if someone is offering a deal you don't turn down you take it and if there is a player you really want you go and get him (Julius Thomas). I think if Jenkins falls and he gets into a value range where you can justify the turdiness he comes with I wouldn't be surprised to see the front office be aggressive in trying to get him. Likewise if we are sitting at 25 and someone wants to come up to get Weeden or Osweiler late in the 1st I wouldn't be surprised to see us move down.

eddie mac
04-09-2012, 07:59 AM
King is an idiot. Name me one trade in the history of the NFL that saw a team trade an early 2nd rd pick for 2 4ths and a 5th. King needs to smell some realism.

gyldenlove
04-09-2012, 08:13 AM
King is an idiot. Name me one trade in the history of the NFL that saw a team trade an early 2nd rd pick for 2 4ths and a 5th. King needs to smell some realism.

Mcdaniels would make that deal in a heartbeat, imagine all the special teamers and blocking tight ends he could get with so many mid round picks.

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 08:35 AM
King is an idiot. Name me one trade in the history of the NFL that saw a team trade an early 2nd rd pick for 2 4ths and a 5th. King needs to smell some realism.

I THINK he's saying since we have a glutton of early mid rounders, we may be more prone to part with one or two along with our second to make a move.

Ftr, I agree and I'm all in favor if it means we can land two of still/kirk/jenkins/gilmore

Kaylore
04-09-2012, 09:11 AM
Moving up for someone often doesn't pan out.

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 09:16 AM
Moving up for someone often doesn't pan out.

Neither do 3rd and 4th rounders.

Kaylore
04-09-2012, 09:18 AM
I'd just as soon play the numbers and try and take as many shots as possible. Hoping for one guy you gave the farm away for is too risky and puts too much unfair pressure on the guy you take to be awesome immediately.

sisterhellfyre
04-09-2012, 09:22 AM
Suppose the league gets scared of Janoris Jenkins because of his sketchy background, and the best cover man in the draft is sitting there early in the second round. Could the developmental-corner-needy Broncos deal three picks to move up for him?

Yah, sure, cuz that worked out so well for the Broncos last time.

(Looking at you, Alphonso Smith.)

CEH
04-09-2012, 09:31 AM
I suggested a coupel days ago if the 2nd rated CB was on the board at 22 I'd trade up in front of DET using a 4th (I assume this the correct value). Addressing the CB with a stud I think has more value then taking a risk on a DT at #25 or dropping back would be a great fallback but it's not your primary draft stragegy going in

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 09:36 AM
I suggested a coupel days ago if the 2nd rated CB was on the board at 22 I'd trade up in front of DET using a 4th (I assume this the correct value). Addressing the CB with a stud I think has more value then taking a risk on a DT at #25 or dropping back would be a great fallback but it's not your primary draft stragegy going in

I want boff and we have the ammo to do it AND still grab some great prospects later on.

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 09:37 AM
Yah, sure, cuz that worked out so well for the Broncos last time.

(Looking at you, Alphonso Smith.)

Before a post like this gains any traction and potentially gets repeated:

Jenkins and Alphonso Smith could not be more dissimilar.

BroncoInferno
04-09-2012, 09:39 AM
Yah, sure, cuz that worked out so well for the Broncos last time.

(Looking at you, Alphonso Smith.)

Smith was not nearly as highly regarded as Jenkins. If not for the character questions, Jenkins would be top 15 lock. He may go that high anyway if someone is willing to roll the dice.

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 09:42 AM
Smith was not nearly as highly regarded as Jenkins. If not for the character questions, Jenkins would be top 15 lock. He may go that high anyway if someone is willing to roll the dice.

Top 10 potentially Top 5. Jenkins ****s all over Clairborne in terms of "on the field"

gyldenlove
04-09-2012, 09:48 AM
Top 10 potentially Top 5. Jenkins ****s all over Clairborne in terms of "on the field"

Given his record, there is a pretty good chance he would **** all over Claiborne off the field as well....

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 09:50 AM
Given his record, there is a pretty good chance he would **** all over Claiborne off the field as well....

:spit:

BroncoBen
04-09-2012, 09:56 AM
If the Broncos do any trading .. I would like them to trade back the 1st pick and pick up additional draft picks in the the 2nd round.

The Broncos need as many draft picks as they can get.. doesn't make sense to bundle and move up.

houghtam
04-09-2012, 10:16 AM
It's a crap shoot and ultimately based on luck,

False.

The number of HOFers, All-Pros and Pro Bowlers who were first rounders vs. other rounds says otherwise.

The draft is a crapshoot for people who don't know what they're talking about and teams with poor scouting departments.

TonyR
04-09-2012, 10:25 AM
The number of HOFers, All-Pros and Pro Bowlers who were first rounders vs. other rounds says otherwise.

It's still a crapshoot. The odds are just better in the 1st round.

TheReverend
04-09-2012, 10:27 AM
It's still a crapshoot. The odds are just better in the 1st round.

By that logic, ANYTHING with human components can now be viewed as a "crapshoot"

Drunken.Broncoholic
04-09-2012, 10:28 AM
There's several 1st rounds busts for every 1st round HOFer/pro bowler

Tombstone RJ
04-09-2012, 10:29 AM
False.

The number of HOFers, All-Pros and Pro Bowlers who were first rounders vs. other rounds says otherwise.

The draft is a crapshoot for people who don't know what they're talking about and teams with poor scouting departments.

The draft is nothing more than an educated guess. Those teams who are best educated on a player tend to guess correctly more than the less educated teams. But it's IS a guessing game.

If teams didn't guess then Tom Brady would have been picked #1 overall. Terrell Davis would have been a top 5 pick.

See, it works both ways. Teams think they are drafting the best guys early in the draft and sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. They also don't draft other players high because they are "guessing" the player probably won't suceed so they don't put a priority on drafting that player early, or perhaps they draft that player as a project or a special teams guy and he ends up being a whole lot more.

But don't kid yourself, the draft is not an exact science. It's just as much about luck sometimes as it is about science and measurables.

TonyR
04-09-2012, 10:30 AM
By that logic, ANYTHING with human components can now be viewed as a "crapshoot"

Yes, "crapshoot" probably isn't the best word to use. But I think Garcia's point was that there is risk and luck involved in the draft, and that talent evaluation and draft selection is far from a perfect science. And there are plenty of first round busts to back this up.

peacepipe
04-09-2012, 10:37 AM
I rather us bundle up some picks & come out of this draft a couple impact players. We have a lot of holes but drafting alot of players who are of equal or lesser talent then what we already have doesn't fix those holes.

BroncoBen
04-09-2012, 12:22 PM
Sometimes I think teams would be better served in just using draft magazines like Pro Football Weekly's Draft Guide or to a lesser extent Lindeys.

I swear this is what the Raiders did last year...

Seems like they had a pretty decent draft.. only time will tell but most of their draft picks seemed like they came out of a draft guide.

But it drives me crazy when I see the Broncos draft someone in the early rounds who is projected to be availible in the later rounds.. IE Tim Tebow.

Play2win
04-09-2012, 12:34 PM
If the Broncos do any trading .. I would like them to trade back the 1st pick and pick up additional draft picks in the the 2nd round.

The Broncos need as many draft picks as they can get.. doesn't make sense to bundle and move up.

I am normally really against trading back, I think its selling yourself short. But, we already got our #1 pick in Payton Manning this year (and decade), so I think this is a reasonable strategy THIS year.

Play2win
04-09-2012, 12:36 PM
Think about it for a second... In the offseason of the last two years we got: Von Miller and Payton Manning... That is one HELL of a Haul.

gyldenlove
04-09-2012, 12:46 PM
Sometimes I think teams would be better served in just using draft magazines like Pro Football Weekly's Draft Guide or to a lesser extent Lindeys.

I swear this is what the Raiders did last year...

Seems like they had a pretty decent draft.. only time will tell but most of their draft picks seemed like they came out of a draft guide.

But it drives me crazy when I see the Broncos draft someone in the early rounds who is projected to be availible in the later rounds.. IE Tim Tebow.

The problem with projections is that it only takes 1 out of 31 to screw you over if there is a player you really want. Mcdaniels was very guilty of overdrafting, mostly a result of his very limited draft boards which meant he couldn't afford to wait since the players he had targeted could all be gone - if you have a bigger draft board you are usually not that vulnerable.

Lets take Darius Heyward-Bey as an example, he was very similar to Demaryius Thomas in a lot of ways, and was considered a low 1st round talent, much like Thomas - too inconsistent and raw to be a top pick, but with a ton of upside. The Raiders took him in the top 10, which was clearly too early, no other team in the top 15 was going to draft him, but if he turned into the next Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson nobody would care at all.

Every year when a player gets overdrafted, someone gets underdrafted, like Daquan Bowers, he was supposed to be a lock for the top 10, then dropped out of the top 10 in the 2nd round, if you are a draft evaluator you think that is amazing, getting someone so talented in the 2nd round, but if you are a team who has had him in for a medical and has seen his slow first step and his banged up knee, you are thinking good riddance, getting a run stopping base end with a busted knee in the 2nd is bad value.

houghtam
04-09-2012, 12:47 PM
The draft is nothing more than an educated guess. Those teams who are best educated on a player tend to guess correctly more than the less educated teams. But it's IS a guessing game.

If teams didn't guess then Tom Brady would have been picked #1 overall. Terrell Davis would have been a top 5 pick.

See, it works both ways. Teams think they are drafting the best guys early in the draft and sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong. They also don't draft other players high because they are "guessing" the player probably won't suceed so they don't put a priority on drafting that player early, or perhaps they draft that player as a project or a special teams guy and he ends up being a whole lot more.

But don't kid yourself, the draft is not an exact science. It's just as much about luck sometimes as it is about science and measurables.

You call it guessing. I'm "guessing" people that actually do this for a living would laugh you out the door.

Just because they get something wrong every once in awhile does not render the thing itself as a "crapshoot", and I think if you were a fan of a team with any reasonable ability to draft well, you wouldn't be saying this. It's the ultimate sour grapes for a Broncos fan to say "well it's all a crapshoot anyway."

And you're right, the draft is not just about science and measurables. It's about watching hours and hours of tape, and having worked in an industry for a long enough time to recognize good and bad traits in players. There is some luck involved, in that sometimes good players just don't pan out, get injured, get in trouble with the law, etc., and sometimes players with off-field troubles come around and play like they've shown they can in the past.

But you really should be the one not kidding yourself. Just looking at HOF quarterbacks, there are 13 1st rounders, 3 3rd rounders, 2 4th, 1 5th, and 5 in the 7th or later (most of those were drafted back when the draft was 20 rounds or whatever). Many other positions have the same distribution. That is because over time, more often than not, the talent evaluation of the NFL proves to be more or less correct.

broncocalijohn
04-09-2012, 12:54 PM
Given his record, there is a pretty good chance he would **** all over Claiborne off the field as well....

See, do we really want a player with Ambien problems?

Tombstone RJ
04-09-2012, 01:31 PM
You call it guessing. I'm "guessing" people that actually do this for a living would laugh you out the door.

Just because they get something wrong every once in awhile does not render the thing itself as a "crapshoot", and I think if you were a fan of a team with any reasonable ability to draft well, you wouldn't be saying this. It's the ultimate sour grapes for a Broncos fan to say "well it's all a crapshoot anyway."

And you're right, the draft is not just about science and measurables. It's about watching hours and hours of tape, and having worked in an industry for a long enough time to recognize good and bad traits in players. There is some luck involved, in that sometimes good players just don't pan out, get injured, get in trouble with the law, etc., and sometimes players with off-field troubles come around and play like they've shown they can in the past.

But you really should be the one not kidding yourself. Just looking at HOF quarterbacks, there are 13 1st rounders, 3 3rd rounders, 2 4th, 1 5th, and 5 in the 7th or later (most of those were drafted back when the draft was 20 rounds or whatever). Many other positions have the same distribution. That is because over time, more often than not, the talent evaluation of the NFL proves to be more or less correct.

look up term "educated guess" because I KNOW you don't know what it means.

let me help: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_one_word_for_an_educated_guess

An educated guess is another term for "estimate."

Where did I say crapshoot? Yes, its an educated "guess".

Tombstone RJ
04-09-2012, 01:33 PM
Also, another reason it's an educated guess is because of injuries. You can never predict how injuries will affect a player's career.

Hamrob
04-09-2012, 05:21 PM
Neither do 3rd and 4th rounders. I tend to agree, but I also think this draft is pretty deep at need positions for us. I really think we can get a good WR in the 4th and a good project QB...such as Osweiler, Cousins, or Foles.

Mogulseeker
04-09-2012, 06:00 PM
I would like to see us trade down from #25 to a team with two 2's. Someone like the Rams (who have two high 2's). We can then get three good players in the second. I hope K. Wright (WR) or J. Martin (OT) fall to #25. With Houston picking right after us I can see a team wanting to jump up and grab either of them. Houston needs a WR and OT. Heck, if Martin falls to #25 I could see us taking him. We will see.

This is not a bad idea. It's what the Pats have been doing for years, and Belicheat has found tons of Pro Bowl talent in the 2nd.

Lestat
04-09-2012, 06:25 PM
if there is a guy falling with high value then i'd love to see us trade up to get him. but i'd rather us gain some more picks by moving down and grabbing a ton of value.

but if the opportunity to get Cox,Coples or Richardson present itself then i'm all for it :)

barryr
04-09-2012, 07:38 PM
I have posted many times I think the Broncos best move is to trade down and get more 2nd and 3rd round picks.

RaiderH8r
04-10-2012, 06:53 AM
Think about it for a second... In the offseason of the last two years we got: Von Miller and Payton Manning... That is one HELL of a Haul.

Hitting Von Miller was like falling out of a boat and hitting water. woo hoo, gravity worked.

If we don't address DT this offseason...again...and go with the collection of stiffs we have right now I may puke...again.

TheReverend
04-10-2012, 06:56 AM
This is not a bad idea. It's what the Pats have been doing for years, and Belicheat has found tons of Pro Bowl talent in the 2nd.

Yup he's really revamped that defense.

Oh wait.

At least he got the secondary all fixed up.

****.

DBroncos4life
04-10-2012, 07:00 AM
Hitting Von Miller was like falling out of a boat and hitting water. woo hoo, gravity worked.

If we don't address DT this offseason...again...and go with the collection of stiffs we have right now I may puke...again.

I remember the days when people were just happy to land a star in the draft.

TheReverend
04-10-2012, 07:05 AM
I remember the days when people were just happy to land a star in the draft.

To be fair, that was when the roster was a little more well rounded and you knew guys like Lepsis, Nalen, Neil, Anderson, Rod, Al, Trevor, etc were all gonna take care of business.

Play2win
04-10-2012, 07:07 AM
Hitting Von Miller was like falling out of a boat and hitting water. woo hoo, gravity worked.

If we don't address DT this offseason...again...and go with the collection of stiffs we have right now I may puke...again.

Fully agree about the DT. I have been crying for a DT for years, really wanted Darius last year, Thank God Mr. Elway wasn't listening to me Hilarious!

Play2win
04-10-2012, 07:09 AM
Miller + Manning = SUPERBOWL :)

DBroncos4life
04-10-2012, 07:12 AM
To be fair, that was when the roster was a little more well rounded and you knew guys like Lepsis, Nalen, Neil, Anderson, Rod, Al, Trevor, etc were all gonna take care of business.

I agree. I'm just saying while I want a DT in the draft as well but, should Denver draft a WR or RB that has a Miller like impact on the team I'm not going to get upset over it.

I just don't like the attitude that Miller was a easy choice and hard to mess up. Who cares lets be happy about him and add more impact guys like him at other positions! ;D

TheReverend
04-10-2012, 07:22 AM
I agree. I'm just saying while I want a DT in the draft as well but, should Denver draft a WR or RB that has a Miller like impact on the team I'm not going to get upset over it.

I just don't like the attitude that Miller was a easy choice and hard to mess up. Who cares lets be happy about him and add more impact guys like him at other positions! ;D

Well... look at ANY of the other guys we could've realistically picked there (Peterson, Dareus, AJ Green) and yeah... from how things are looking after just one season, it was pretty impossible to screw up.

Requiem
04-10-2012, 11:06 AM
Well... look at ANY of the other guys we could've realistically picked there (Peterson, Dareus, AJ Green) and yeah... from how things are looking after just one season, it was pretty impossible to screw up.

When you're picking #2, you get to pick the winner!

gyldenlove
04-10-2012, 11:21 AM
This is not a bad idea. It's what the Pats have been doing for years, and Belicheat has found tons of Pro Bowl talent in the 2nd.

2nd round picks by the Patriots:

1999 - Kevin Faulk
2000 - Adrian Klemm
2001 - Matt Light
2002 - Deion Branch
2003 - Eugene Wilson
2003 - Bethel Johnson
2004 - Marquise Hill
2006 - Chad Jackson
2008 - Terrance Wheatley
2009 - Pat Chung
2009 - Ron Brace
2009 - Darius Butler
2009 - Sebastian Vollmer
2010 - Rob Gronkowski
2010 - Jermaine Cunningham
2010 - Brandon Spikes
2011 - Ras-I Dowling
2011 - Shane Vereen

I put all the pro-bowlers in bold. (2/18=11%)

For comparison since 1999, we have also had two 2nd round draft picks go to the pro bowl (Ian Gold and Clinton Portis, 2/19=10%).