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Bronco Rob
02-11-2012, 12:37 PM
Hall of Fame probability of active players: Peyton Manning for sure; Tony Romo in air



By Mike Beacom, ProFootballWeekly.comFeb 10, 3:17 pm EST





The Pro Football Hall of Fame is for winners and the elite, and even those players sometimes have to wait. Cris Carter has 1,101 receptions and 130 touchdown catches; Charles Haley has more Super Bowl rings than anyone(five) — both are still waiting for the call.



What does it take to make the Hall? Only voters can answer that question, but what we do know is that the 44-person Selection Committee inducts no more than five each year (not counting the two Senior Committee candidates) and rarely more than one at each position.


Who is on the right track among today's active players? It changes year to year, with all of them able to be grouped into varying levels of probability. The 100 players considered below entered the league in 2007 or before, giving them at least five years of work to showcase. Players are listed with their position, 2011 team and draft year.



LOCKS — Legends that might as well start getting measured for their suit coat.



Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts (1998) — With him, the Colts were consistent 10-game winners; without him, they were awful.


Ray Lewis, LB, Baltimore Ravens (1996) — Probably the best defensive player of the past two decades.


Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons (1997) — Changed the position (and at age 35 still caught 80 balls).


Champ Bailey, DB, Denver Broncos (1999) — Another year, another Pro Bowl — that makes 11 in 13 seasons.


LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets (2001) — His late-career decline could keep him out on his first try, but L.T. won't wait long.


Ed Reed, DB, Baltimore Ravens (2002) — His 57 interceptions are not as important as his eight career interception or fumble returns for scores.


Charles Woodson, DB, Green Bay Packers (1998) — Imagine if he had played in Dom Capers' system his entire career.


Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (2000) — Five Super Bowls, four seasons with 4,000-plus yards, three rings, two MVPs 0-2 since spygate …


Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (2003) — Eight consecutive Pro Bowl invites and no signs of slowing down (well, when healthy).




ON THEIR WAY — Elite players on pace to finish up in Canton, each with a 75 percent chance or better.



Troy Polamalu, DB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2003) — Voters will want to reward the great Steelers defenses of this era. Polamalu gives them a face.


Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (2001) — Has passed for 4,300 or more yards in six consecutive seasons (including two years with more than 5,000). His strong character will help his candidacy just as much.


Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago Bears (2000) — His performance the past two seasons has solidified his campaign. Plus, it helps that he follows Butkus and Singletary in the line of outstanding Chicago middle linebackers.


Adam Vinatieri, PK, Indianapolis Colts (1996) — The Hall of Fame doesn't care for kickers, but it will make an exception for the most celebrated big-game kicker of them all.


Brian Dawkins, DB, Denver Broncos (1996) — A locker-room leader who has played well into his late 30s. That packaged with eight Pro Bowls (four All-Pro selections) should be enough.


DeMarcus Ware, LB, Dallas Cowboys (2005) — Outside of Reggie White, no sack artist has had a run to match what Ware has accomplished these past five seasons.


Richard Seymour, DL, Oakland Raiders (2001) — Has rings from his time in New England, and has a pair of Pro Bowls from his last two seasons in Oakland. Underappreciated but he won't go unnoticed by voters.


Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (2003) — Of the tight ends currently in the Hall of Fame, only one (Shannon Sharpe) has been invited to more Pro Bowls than Witten.


Dwight Freeney, DL, Indianapolis Colts (2002) — Partially responsible for teams shifting to small, quick edge rushers. Has a better sack-per-game average than 2012 HOF inductee Chris Doleman.


Steve Hutchinson, OL, Minnesota Vikings (2001) — Even though he is one of the most celebrated guards of his era (five All-Pro selections) his body of work places him on the low end of the guards already in Canton.



Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1998) — The numbers (1,000 catches, 12,083 yards) won't mean as much to voters as his role in Pittsburgh's last three Super Bowl appearances, including two wins.


Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (2004) — The youngest player not in the "On their way" category. His 2011 numbers (notably his 17.6-yard average) showed he can produce in bad times as well as good.


Julius Peppers, DL, Chicago Bears (2002) — Has seven seasons with 10-plus sacks to his credit and six Pro Bowls. Probably more disruptive than his numbers indicate, but he also has been inconsistent at times throughout his career.


Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (2004) — Jim Plunkett and Ben Roethlisberger (see below) are the only other quarterbacks to have won two Super Bowls who are not in Canton — and Eli's numbers rate him well above Plunkett and Big Ben.


Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans (2003) — Will reach 10,000 yards in 2012 (in only his 10th NFL season). Has made nearly six catches per game over his career.


Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2004) — Like Eli, has two rings (and played in a third Super Bowl). Roethlisberger has been a consistent winner, but his passing numbers (specifically touchdowns) are lacking.


London Fletcher, LB, Washington Redskins (1998) — Years from now, well into Fletcher's candidacy, someone will remind voters just how consistently good he was. After years of being overlooked, Canton could be his reward.




MAYBE, MAYBE NOT — Stars that have had a splendid career, just maybe not Hall of Fame caliber. Each has a 50-50 shot at best.



Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (2001) — Will voters see hiim as the most exceptional athlete ever to suit up, or as a quarterback who was merely good on as many Sundays as he was elite?


Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2001) — Without Peyton Manning in the pocket, Wayne's 2011 catch and yardage numbers dropped approximately 30 percent from the previous season — calculations voters will make note of.


Jared Allen, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2004) — This season's 22 sacks give Allen's candidacy a major boost.


Matt Light, OL, New England Patriots (2001) — Voters like to reward great teams. Light has been with Tom Brady for all five Super Bowl runs, and has enough name recognition and Pro Bowls (three) to stay in the conversation.


Kevin Williams, DL, Minnesota Vikings (2003) — Plays the run and pass well, arguably one of the best interior defensive linemen of his era. Will need a few more Pro Bowls (or a ring) to jump up a category on this list.


John Abraham, DL, Atlanta Falcons (2000) — Would you believe Abraham's sack-per-game numbers are better than Dwight Freeney's? Neither will voters, but it's true.


Adrian Wilson, DB, Arizona Cardinals (2001) — Not a big turnover producer, just a very smart and solid safety.


James Harrison, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2002) — Has helped Pittsburgh remain a force in the AFC. A late bloomer (probably a little too late).



Terrell Suggs, LB, Baltimore Ravens (2003) — Reached new ground in 2011. Can he hold that level for two or three more years? He'll need to for Canton to come calling.


Lance Briggs, LB, Chicago Bears (2003) — Seven consecutive Pro Bowl invites helps; Brian Urlacher's shadow hurts.


Chad Ochocinco, WR, New England Patriots (2001) — A rare case where panache might appeal to voters more than substance.


Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers (2001) — The real question is how many yards will a receiver need to gain entrance 10 years from now? Smith won't have enough touchdowns or receptions, that's for certain.


Ronde Barber, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1997) — Right now, there does not appear to be enough on Barber's résumé. He has contributed in many ways, but probably has not stood out enough in any one area (turnovers, tackles, defensive scores, sacks) to earn strong consideration.


Matt Birk, OL, Baltimore Ravens (1998) — Six Pro Bowls and the 2011 Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year Award will highlight a splendid career for a center who doesn't quite meet the mark.


Donovan McNabb, QB (1999) — There was a time when McNabb appeared destined for Canton. Now he appears destined for Canada.




http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=pfw-20120210_hall_of_fame_probability_of_active_player s

Powderaddict
02-11-2012, 12:51 PM
Article fail, Tebow not mentioned as a lock.

Tombstone RJ
02-11-2012, 01:25 PM
I wonder how Hines Wards numbers compare to Rod Smith's numbers.

Man-Goblin
02-11-2012, 06:29 PM
Hines Ward on his way. Really?....really? Almost as laughable as Curtis Martin getting in.

Jay3
02-11-2012, 06:38 PM
Vick no way.

Jay3
02-11-2012, 06:39 PM
I agree with all of the locks.

Crushaholic
02-11-2012, 07:21 PM
Jared Allen should be bumped up to the "On their way" category. I think he is going to continue to excel...

gunns
02-11-2012, 07:44 PM
I wonder how Hines Wards numbers compare to Rod Smith's numbers.

I'm not sure but Smith's number are very comparable to Michael Irvin.

And oh hell, Ed Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed! :Whaaaa!:

I cannot believe the maybe/maybe not's are even considered a possibility

extralife
02-11-2012, 08:02 PM
Jared Allen should be bumped up to the "On their way" category. I think he is going to continue to excel...

yeah, I can't find all that much to complain about here (**** Hines Ward, but he's right that voters will fall for him), but barring a catastrophic injury I don't really see a scenario in which Allen doesn't make it, especially given the relatively low career sack numbers for the pass rush talents of this era.

bronco militia
02-11-2012, 08:57 PM
Tony romo up in the air?

That poor bastard is still looking for his first playoff win

RandyMoss84
02-11-2012, 09:05 PM
Tony romo up in the air?

That poor bastard is still looking for his first playoff win

Tony already had his first playoff win against the Eagles wildcard round in 2009

errand
02-11-2012, 09:51 PM
I wonder how Hines Wards numbers compare to Rod Smith's numbers.

Rod had 849 receptions for 11,389 yards.....good enough for 18th in receptions .....and 21st in yards. He has nowhere near enough TD's as he's not even in top 20 all time for WR's.....

errand
02-11-2012, 09:57 PM
I'm not sure but Smith's number are very comparable to Michael Irvin.

And oh hell, Ed Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed! :Whaaaa!:

I cannot believe the maybe/maybe not's are even considered a possibility

Irving has 99 fewer receptions (750), but has 515 more yards (11,904)....Mike seemed to make alot if big plays. Rod should get consideration as a two time champion, and his numbers given that he wasn't even drafted.

gunns
02-11-2012, 10:56 PM
Irving has 99 fewer receptions (750), but has 515 more yards (11,904)....Mike seemed to make alot if big plays. Rod should get consideration as a two time champion, and his numbers given that he wasn't even drafted.

Rod also had 3 more TD's than Mike. 68-65

GreatBronco16
02-11-2012, 11:03 PM
Well the Cutler fans will be dissapointed to not see him name anywhere on that list.:giggle:

cutthemdown
02-11-2012, 11:30 PM
LOL Tony Romo in the air? only if the air is full of kush smoke and DMT.

Archer81
02-11-2012, 11:58 PM
Matt Light is a HOF caliber tackle?

...


:Broncos:

TomServo
02-12-2012, 02:07 AM
ive said it before and ill probably say it forever. F the footbal HOF. i mean it. F em. same as the rock and roll HOF. same place. im happy for elway and sharpe and zim but......F the football hof. im happy Elway and broncos are in but..... Six superbowls and thats it?
effing clown michael irving gets in while rod smith looks in with pretty much the exact same numbers?
F the HOF

That One Guy
02-12-2012, 09:14 AM
I think Gates is overrated. Hopefully playing part of his career alongside the talents out there now (Gronk, Jimmy Graham, half a dozen other guys) will overshadow him enough that he never peaks as high as he needs to. He's had a few good seasons and is usually pretty darn good but I don't think he should be a lock.

bronco militia
02-12-2012, 09:42 AM
Tony romo up in the air?

That poor bastard is still looking for his first playoff win

My bad.

****....he's a lock!

Pony Boy
02-12-2012, 04:19 PM
Tony Romo is a no go .......

How many ring would Eli Manning have had he been a Dallas Cowboy? I would say probably one more than he has now, so what does that say for ROMO?

Drunken.Broncoholic
02-12-2012, 04:28 PM
Charles Haley hasnt gotten in because of off field behavior. The fact that Vick is even on the list discredits the entire article.

Bronco Yoda
02-12-2012, 07:38 PM
Randy Gradishar
Terrell Davis
Rich Jackson
Tom Nalen
Rod Smith.
Steve Atwater

KCStud
02-12-2012, 10:29 PM
Yeah Jared Allen should be in the 75% range. He's 20th in NFL history in sacks right now and will be in the top 15 after next season. It's very possible that he gets in the top 3. He has 105 sacks will be turning 30 next season. Plenty of years left.

canadianbroncosfan
02-12-2012, 10:56 PM
Randy Gradishar
Terrell Davis
Rich Jackson
Tom Nalen
Rod Smith.
Steve Atwater

*Karl Mecklenburg

maher_tyler
02-12-2012, 11:26 PM
Marvin Harrison??
Adrain Peterson??

http://www.nfl.com/player/marvinharrison/2501062/profile

broncocalijohn
02-13-2012, 01:42 PM
Well the Cutler fans will be dissapointed to not see him name anywhere on that list.:giggle:

Jhns already labeled he author of the article as a McFan. As for some of his reasonings, he puts too much value on pro bowls and wide receivers.

boltaneer
02-14-2012, 04:56 PM
I think Gates is overrated. Hopefully playing part of his career alongside the talents out there now (Gronk, Jimmy Graham, half a dozen other guys) will overshadow him enough that he never peaks as high as he needs to. He's had a few good seasons and is usually pretty darn good but I don't think he should be a lock.

As long as his foot issues don't force him out early or slow him down too much, he should be able to put up yardage numbers close to TonyG and should easily surpass him in TDs.

But his foot problems remain an issue so that's a big 'if' for right now.

TomServo
02-18-2012, 03:00 AM
even if i got a free ticket to visit the football HOF i would decline. what the hell is wrong with ohio? the rock and roll hof has madonna but Not Rush or Ted Nugent?
the nfl hof has three broncos. three. yay. Six superbowls and three members? yah OK.
and peyton Gump with his ONE SB will get in.

The Moops
02-18-2012, 04:09 AM
Romo has one playoff win. But unless he wins a Super Bowl or plays another 8 years and puts up monster numbers, he won't get in.