PDA

View Full Version : Grantland/Barnwell breakdown of Broncos @ Pats


TonyR
01-12-2012, 09:45 AM
They were at least willing to note something that very few media outlets have recognized regarding the Broncos regular season game against the Pats:

To try to break down what to watch for in Brady-Tebow II, we naturally went back to Week 15 and took a long look at Brady-Tebow I. The Patriots traveled to Denver and won that day, 41-23, but the game itself was a lot closer than the final scoreline. A few key mistakes from the Broncos and lucky bounces for the Patriots were enough to swing an early Denver lead into a three-score victory, but the Broncos were competitive for the vast majority of the game and actually outplayed the Patriots for most of the first half.

Read the whole thing here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7453830/bill-barnwell-breaks-sunday-denver-broncos-new-england-patriots-playoff-matchup

Good read, I highly recommend.

55CrushEm
01-12-2012, 09:51 AM
They were at least willing to note something that very few media outlets have recognized regarding the Broncos regular season game against the Pats:



Read the whole thing here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7453830/bill-barnwell-breaks-sunday-denver-broncos-new-england-patriots-playoff-matchup

Exactly. Yet all the arrogance on local radio out here is to the effect of, "We kicked their asses in THEIR place....how can they expect to win here??"

jhns
01-12-2012, 09:52 AM
Kind of related: The new Broncos app just pointed put that they will be doing a season review sound FX of Brady and Tebow on NFL Network tonight at 7 MST. The game from the OP will be replayed just after that show, at 7:30 MST. Their will also be a show called "Tim Tebow: Season in Review" on at 6 MST Friday.

If we don't turn it over, and McGahee stays healthy, we have a very good chance in this game.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-12-2012, 09:54 AM
Barnwell brings up some really solid points in that post

BroncoFanatic
01-12-2012, 09:58 AM
You know that someone has to have been confused if Chad Ochocinco ends up scoring a touchdown

LOL!

WolfpackGuy
01-12-2012, 09:59 AM
Anybody that watched the first game understands it was closer than the score ended up being.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:00 AM
Sigh...turnovers are a part of the game and NE is what +14 or something. Thats how they play. Call it luck or whatever.

BroncoBeavis
01-12-2012, 10:01 AM
Exactly. Yet all the arrogance on local radio out here is to the effect of, "We kicked their asses in THEIR place....how can they expect to win here??"

Oh man how I hope the Pats are lapping that stuff on a daily basis. If that's their thinking going in, we've got them exactly where we want them to be.

I suspect Coach Belicheat and the Pats are smarter than that though. They remember how it really went down in Denver.

jhns
01-12-2012, 10:02 AM
Sigh...turnovers are a part of the game and NE is what +14 or something. Thats how they play. Call it luck or whatever.

Who called it luck or whatever?

OrangeSe7en
01-12-2012, 10:07 AM
Kind of related: The new Broncos app just pointed put that they will be doing a season review sound FX of Brady and Tebow on NFL Network tonight at 7 MST. The game from the OP will be replayed just after that show, at 7:30 MST. Their will also be a show called "Tim Tebow: Season in Review" on at 6 MST Friday.

If we don't turn it over, and McGahee stays healthy, we have a very good chance in this game.

There were a lot of things going on.

Probably the biggest issue Denver had was losing Miller's ability to get after the QB at the same time they had two rookies at safety. If you're going to have issues on the back end of your defense, you can maybe have a chance if you get pressure on the QB. If you suddenly lose a huge part of your pass rush, then you really need to have it together in your secondary. When these kind of issues arise and you've had little time to adjust to them (all of this happened shortly before the NE game) and then you face someone like Brady, it's like a perfect storm of misfortune for our defense.

Things seemed to have been stabilized somewhat. Allen was eventually able to adjust to this misfortune. It seems to have started in the KC game, where Orton barely completed 50% of his passes. And these arent attempts where he's throwing the ball 15+ yards down field like Tebow. And then last week, Ben's completion % was actually barely 50% too.

So, hopefully, the issues Denver had defensively in the first game will help along with turning over the ball less.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:10 AM
Who called it luck or whatever?

Me, I think TOs are mostly luck.

TonyR
01-12-2012, 10:13 AM
The Patriots are so difficult because they force the opposition into impossible choices like that on virtually every play. The Broncos made it a clear priority to try to eliminate Gronkowski from the game, and they were able to limit him to four catches on five targets for a total of 38 yards, but that meant that Aaron Hernandez got to run free versus Harris and other overmatched members of the Denver secondary. He finished with a team-high nine catches, 11 targets, and 129 yards. Denver will have to make a difficult choice this weekend: Do they let Hernandez do that to them again? Or do they try to eliminate him from the game and do their best with Gronkowski instead?

With our young secondary this is precisely why this is such a terrible matchup for us. I'd be considerably more confident against either Baltimore or Houston.

Kid A
01-12-2012, 10:15 AM
He was one of the few to pick Denver to beat Pittsburgh. Not sure how accurate his prognosticating has been overall, but I usually find him insightful and accurate when he writes about the NFL. The injury situation certainly doesn't favor us this week. At least two of the young guys in the secondary will have to play the best games of their brief careers to give us a real shot.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:18 AM
When NE puts the TEs in there they can run as the TEs, well Gronkwoski anyway are huge. But Brady can audible and just as easily pass from that formation. Tough to defend it consistently. Its easier on the road where Brady cannot audible as freely due to crowd noise but at home NE is tough to beat but not impossible obviously.

Old Dude
01-12-2012, 10:18 AM
Hard to argue with anything in that article.

Denver absolutely, positively has to get pressure on Brady or the secondary will get eaten alive. As he notes, the pass rush did show some signs of life last week. It will have to be at least as good this week for the Broncos to have any shot.

I'm a little more optimistic about Denver's special teams. Eddie Royal has always been our best return man when he's healthy.

As he notes, Kuper was a big loss and the running game could suffer. On the other hand, McGahee might be healthier this time around, and he's much more dangerous ball carrier than Ball or Johnson.

BroncoBeavis
01-12-2012, 10:19 AM
I don't think it's ever a winning formula to focus on trying to take away one of Brady's weapons. He has too many, and he's easily good enough to use any of his other guys on the field if you focus on taking one away.

I think you have to focus on the jugular... going for Brady himself. If you can't pressure him, he's going to hang 30-40 on you. That's just the way it is.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:19 AM
Hard to argue with anything in that article.

Denver absolutely, positively has to get pressure on Brady or the secondary will get eaten alive. As he notes, the pass rush did show some signs of life last week. It will have to be at least as good this week for the Broncos to have any shot.

I'm a little more optimistic about Denver's special teams. Eddie Royal has always been our best return man when he's healthy.

As he notes, Kuper was a big loss and the running game could suffer. On the other hand, McGahee might be healthier this time around, and he's much more dangerous ball carrier than Ball or Johnson.

When he does not fumble

SonOfLe-loLang
01-12-2012, 10:19 AM
Me, I think TOs are mostly luck.

I agree fumbles are mostly random occurances.

TonyR
01-12-2012, 10:19 AM
He was one of the few to pick Denver to beat Pittsburgh. Not sure how accurate his prognosticating has been overall, but I usually find him insightful and accurate when he writes about the NFL.

Yup. This is a really solid write up and it's hard to disagree with any of it.

A lot of the factors that led us to lean toward a possible upset last week for Denver are gone. This week, they're the team with more injuries. They're the ones on the road in a hostile environment. They're at the special teams disadvantage... They should be able to score some, but it's going to be very difficult for them to really stop the Patriots.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:22 AM
NE plays the bend but don't break D, hoping that the QB or the RB makes a mistake....law of averages? IDK?

Old Dude
01-12-2012, 10:26 AM
When he does not fumble

McGahee has lost twice as many fumbles as Ball this year, but he has two and a half times more carries.

jhns
01-12-2012, 10:27 AM
I agree fumbles are mostly random occurances.

FFs and interceptions are not luck. The way a fumble bounces can be luck. A pumt returner making a huge mistake is kind of lucky, or it is that a bad player is fielding the punt.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-12-2012, 10:27 AM
Hard to argue with anything in that article.

Denver absolutely, positively has to get pressure on Brady or the secondary will get eaten alive. As he notes, the pass rush did show some signs of life last week. It will have to be at least as good this week for the Broncos to have any shot.

I'm a little more optimistic about Denver's special teams. Eddie Royal has always been our best return man when he's healthy.

As he notes, Kuper was a big loss and the running game could suffer. On the other hand, McGahee might be healthier this time around, and he's much more dangerous ball carrier than Ball or Johnson.

I dont think losing Kuper is going to be a huge loss here, because Broncos get by on scheme (creating a numbers mismatch with the option) and as long as the line does an adequate job, we'll be ok. I'm more concerned about Chung and Spikes coming back and them being able to contain it better than they did the first time.

I assume the Pats will employ a similar D as they did the first game and let us chew up some yards incrementally and wait for us to make a mistake (we're young, we have a young QB...i think this is a decent strategy. Also, I'm not a huge Deck fan yet, but not having him here will hurt.) And you can do this when you have an offense who scores every single drive.

On defense, I have no clue what the Broncos are even thinking, but we can safely assume they'll have a diff strategy. Unfortunately for us, we have great edge rushers and Brady usually avoids these guys by staying shallow in the pocket and stepping up. We need to bring pressure up the gut and I'd try flooding the A-gaps and seeing what happens. If he burns us doing that, well, then fine, we know he's gonna burn the rush three and drop back into zone strategy too.

OrangeSe7en
01-12-2012, 10:28 AM
It's a good write up but he's wrong about special teams. Prater is still a weapon away from Denver. He hit game winners against both Miami and San Diego on the road (at sea level) of 50+ yards.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:29 AM
FFs and interceptions are not luck. The way a fumble bounces can be luck. A pumt returner making a huge mistake is kind of lucky, or it is that a bad player is fielding the punt.

I guess? NE is the worst D in the NFL and close to the worst D of all time. I am guessing their +/- is mostly luck? No?

SonOfLe-loLang
01-12-2012, 10:29 AM
FFs and interceptions are not luck. The way a fumble bounces can be luck. A pumt returner making a huge mistake is kind of lucky, or it is that a bad player is fielding the punt.

I think forced fumbles are often 1) Luck 2) carelessness. Its not a sign of some glaring weakness that can't be fixed easily (like inability to read coverage, therefore throwing picks)

For example, you can't say the patriots defense figured out our running game simply because they forced a couple of fumbles. That's BS.

Hey look, im at 10k posts

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 10:31 AM
I think forced fumbles are often 1) Luck 2) carelessness. Its not a sign of some glaring weakness that can't be fixed easily (like inability to read coverage, therefore throwing picks)

For example, you can't say the patriots defense figured out our running game simply because they forced a couple of fumbles. That's BS.

Hey look, im at 10k posts

Agreed, its not as if NE has Sanders and Ed Reed back there?

OrangeSe7en
01-12-2012, 10:32 AM
I dont think losing Kuper is going to be a huge loss here, because Broncos get by on scheme (creating a numbers mismatch with the option) and as long as the line does an adequate job, we'll be ok. I'm more concerned about Chung and Spikes coming back and them being able to contain it better than they did the first time.

I assume the Pats will employ a similar D as they did the first game and let us chew up some yards incrementally and wait for us to make a mistake (we're young, we have a young QB...i think this is a decent strategy. Also, I'm not a huge Deck fan yet, but not having him here will hurt.) And you can do this when you have an offense who scores every single drive.

On defense, I have no clue what the Broncos are even thinking, but we can safely assume they'll have a diff strategy. Unfortunately for us, we have great edge rushers and Brady usually avoids these guys by staying shallow in the pocket and stepping up. We need to bring pressure up the gut and I'd try flooding the A-gaps and seeing what happens. If he burns us doing that, well, then fine, we know he's gonna burn the rush three and drop back into zone strategy too.

I think the bigger point of contention is going to be doing something about how NE tries to set an edge. You know on any play fake that NE's defensive ends are going to try to bracket Tebow.

Uncle Bill
01-12-2012, 10:32 AM
Sigh...turnovers are a part of the game and NE is what +14 or something. Thats how they play. Call it luck or whatever.

Turnovers can be kind of weird...

Yeah, there are teams who play relentlessly and physically, and tend to cause the other team to fumble. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Chicago come to mind as teams who play this style of football, where you just know they're going to cause a fumble or two every week. There's really no element of luck involved--if you beat the crap out of the other team, turnovers are going to happen. McGahee's fumble last week is a prime example.

On the other hand, a lot of turnovers are mostly luck, such as interceptions resulting from improper reads or route running, or simply being careless with the ball. I would argue that all 3 of Denver's turnovers vs. New England were of this variety. Would NE have won without the turnovers? Quite possibly, but all 3 of the fumbles were pretty fluky, and anyone who watched the game knows that it was neck-and-neck other than that 2 minute stretch of carelessness by Denver...

Bottom line is that the rematch should be competitive, as long as Tebow can continue to play smart, aggressive, and confident, and McCoy continues to mix the offense up a bit, instead of running up the gut on all but third and long situations. If we can pressure Brady enough to get him out of his comfort zone, we can actually win, but that's easier said than done...

jhns
01-12-2012, 10:36 AM
I think forced fumbles are often 1) Luck 2) carelessness. Its not a sign of some glaring weakness that can't be fixed easily (like inability to read coverage, therefore throwing picks)

For example, you can't say the patriots defense figured out our running game simply because they forced a couple of fumbles. That's BS.

Hey look, im at 10k posts

They made plays. I don't agree that this is luck. I wouldn't agree if you called Millers FFs luck. He made plays because he is a great athlete. He will get more in the future because of this.

I will agree that it doesn't mean they figured out the run though.

TonyR
01-12-2012, 10:39 AM
I think you have to focus on the jugular... going for Brady himself.

Yup. The problem is you need to do it with as few players as possible, because if you send a lot of guys and don't get to him he's going to gut you.

jhns
01-12-2012, 10:40 AM
Yup. The problem is you need to do it with as few players as possible, because if you send a lot of guys and don't get to him he's going to gut you.

And that is hard because they have a very good line. The Broncos are going to have to score a lot.

In 16 games, the Pats scored less than 30 just four times. They scored less than 20 one time(17).

Kaylore
01-12-2012, 10:41 AM
Can't disagree with anything he said. He very clearly, unlike most writers, watched both games and is familiar with both teams.

SonOfLe-loLang
01-12-2012, 10:43 AM
They made plays. I don't agree that this is luck. I wouldn't agree if you called Millers FFs luck. He made plays because he is a great athlete. He will get more in the future because of this.

I will agree that it doesn't mean they figured out the run though.

Sure...i guess what im trying to say is that you can't gameplan a team into forcing fumbles. They are, more or less, random.

BroncoBeavis
01-12-2012, 10:50 AM
Yup. The problem is you need to do it with as few players as possible, because if you send a lot of guys and don't get to him he's going to gut you.

Yeah, you've got to find the balance. But hopefully the D doesn't take the whole "as few rushers as possible" thing too literally again and go with the 3 man rush. :)

Every stunt and/or blitz should be aimed at pressure in the middle. You're not going to catch Brady from the outside unless someone on the O-Line makes a mistake (like on the Doom sack)

Or unless he's driven backward by pressure in the middle.

Inkana7
01-12-2012, 10:50 AM
If our safeties don't play like retards this time and we have SOME pass rush, I kinda feel good about our D's chances.

BroncoBeavis
01-12-2012, 10:52 AM
Sure...i guess what im trying to say is that you can't gameplan a team into forcing fumbles. They are, more or less, random.

Yeah, I'd say from a gameplan standpoint, you don't build around getting fumbles.

But certain players are definitely fumble-prone. Willis seems like he's putting it on the ground quite a bit. More than I'd like.

WolfpackGuy
01-12-2012, 11:05 AM
Funny he mentioned the Ayers penalty.

That should've been offsetting hands to the face.

Kaylore
01-12-2012, 11:15 AM
Yeah, I'd say from a gameplan standpoint, you don't build around getting fumbles.

But certain players are definitely fumble-prone. Willis seems like he's putting it on the ground quite a bit. More than I'd like.

His hand is probably not 100%.

Old Dude
01-12-2012, 11:19 AM
Strange fact. The Pats faced only two teams with winning records in the 2011 regular season and lost both games.

Assuming they beat Denver and move on to the AFC championship game against the Ravens or Texans, that would be only their third opponent with a winning regular season record (in 18 games).

alkemical
01-12-2012, 11:23 AM
I wish Moreno was available for this game. I think willis is wearing down a little. Also, I think Moreno's catch ability, and his use of "space" could cause damage to the Pats D.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 11:37 AM
Strange fact. The Pats faced only two teams with winning records in the 2011 regular season and lost both games.

Assuming they beat Denver and move on to the AFC championship game against the Ravens or Texans, that would be only their third opponent with a winning regular season record (in 18 games).

True that, who would have thought the Jets and Cowboys would be that awful. LOL

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 11:56 AM
Join me, won't you, as we revisit what I said in this space a mere seven days ago (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2011/story/_/id/7418794/denver-broncos-stand-much-chance-pittsburgh-steelers-nfl):
With [Tim] Tebow at quarterback, the Broncos only faced two playoff teams, the Lions and Patriots. Twice they were solidly thumped, by an average score of 43-12. With the Pittsburgh Steelers (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-steelers) and the league's top scoring defense rolling into town, it's hard to see how they won't be solidly thumped again.
I will pause now to let you get over your giggles, guffaws and belly laughs. Send me an insulting tweet, if you so desire. I've earned it.
All right. Now that we've established that I was very, very wrong, let's examine why I was so wrong. How did Tebow and the Broncos beat Pittsburgh? And more importantly, why was it hard to see coming, and what does that mean for the Patriots?
If you watched the game, the answer to the first question is obvious: The Steelers were utterly incapable of stopping Denver's deep-passing offense. At Football Outsiders, we call any pass thrown 25 or more yards past the line of scrimmage a bomb. On Sunday, Tebow was 4-of-6 for 179 yards on bombs, and a seventh long throw resulted in a 32-yard defensive pass interference call. Counting that penalty, that's a success rate of 71 percent, and an average of 30.1 yards per throw. (And that's not even counting the game-winning 80-yard touchdown in overtime, which was caught just 17 yards past the line of scrimmage).
Is that an unusual performance? In 11 regular-season starts, Tebow finished 30th in total pass attempts this year (including pass interference calls, but not including sacks). However, he finished fourth in really deep passes. Overall, 17.3 percent of Tebow's passes were bombs, by far the highest rate of all quarterbacks with at least 200 passes (Matt Moore (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11128/matt-moore) of Miami was a distant second at 10.5 percent). The league average was just 6.9 percent.
That explains something I overlooked last week: Although Tebow's completion percentage has been historically awful, his yards-per-pass average has been merely bad. Six quarterbacks (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/seasontype/2) who qualified for the passing title averaged fewer yards per throw. Tebow also had a low interception rate (2.2 percent, 10th-best). He's still in the bottom third of starting quarterbacks in the league, but he's not the worst guy out there, and certainly not the worst of the century.
So should we have seen Tebow's aerial barrage coming? Well, not really. While Tebow threw a lot of deep passes this season, he wasn't particularly good at them. His success rate (again, including interference calls) was just 23.4 percent, well below the league average of 32.6 percent. (Aaron Rodgers (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/8439/aaron-rodgers) led the league at 51.4 percent). Pittsburgh's defense, meanwhile, allowed a success rate of 24.1 percent on bombs. Only the Jets' defense was better.
In fact, it's remarkable that Tebow was able to pass at all. Tebow was sacked 33 times in 304 drop-backs this season, a sack rate of 10.9 percent that was worst among starting quarterbacks. Pittsburgh's defense didn't collect a ton of sacks -- its sack rate of 6.2 percent was 18th in the league -- but still should have been good enough to put Tebow on the ground once or twice. Instead, Tebow was free to throw 21 balls without getting sacked once. While the Steelers routinely crowded the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the crowding didn't lead to more pressure on the quarterback.
To be fair, the Steelers were racked with injuries before -- and during -- the game. Already without safety Ryan Clark (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/4301/ryan-clark), Pittsburgh lost run-stuffer Casey Hampton (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2567/casey-hampton) and pass-rusher Brett Keisel (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/3743/brett-keisel) early on -- and LaMarr Woodley (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/10490/lamarr-woodley) was ineffective due to a nagging hamstring injury. Losing Hampton and Keisel hurt the pass rush and rush defense, and the absence of Clark clearly worsened the deep-pass defense and gave safety Troy Polamalu (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/4474/troy-polamalu) less freedom.
The lesson of all this is that this column is entitled "Any Given Sunday" for a reason. Sometimes close examination of upset victims reveals weaknesses on strong teams that aren't always obvious, or matchup problems that certain teams will be able to exploit. And sometimes, close inspection finds that the upset was the exception, not the rule. Sometimes, the better team loses. Sometimes -- on any given Sunday -- the results just don't follow the pattern set by prior results. As a certain bombastic announcer is fond of saying, that's why they play the games.
Regardless, what's done is done. The Steelers are out, and the Broncos are moving on to play the New England Patriots (http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/ne/new-england-patriots). Can Denver pull off another upset?
Well, here's the thing. Pittsburgh's defense was great against bombs all season long, but they couldn't stop Tebow's long-distance attack. How did New England do when opponents aired it out? The Patriots gave up a success rate of 52.5 percent on deep balls. That was the worst rate in the league, and nobody else was higher than 50 percent. Opponents had 21 completions or interference calls on bombs against New England; nobody else gave up more than 16. And if you're counting on nose tackle Vince Wilfork (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/5546/vince-wilfork) & Co. to generate much pass rush against the Broncos, well, their sack rate in 2011 was 6.1 percent, slightly worse than Pittsburgh's.
Tebow was able to make big plays against the Steelers, and there's no reason to think he can't do it again in Foxborough, regardless of what kind of scheme changes coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots' staff puts in. Struggling against the pass has been a theme for the Patriots all season, and it's not something that's likely to disappear.
The only problem: It will be much harder for the Broncos to go on the road and outscore a healthy Tom Brady (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2330/tom-brady) than it was to outscore an injured Ben Roethlisberger (http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/5536/ben-roethlisberger) in Denver. Against the Steelers, Denver got the rare opportunity to throw while ahead. The Broncos went up 7-6 early in the second quarter and were able to keep the Steelers' defense off balance for much of the game. The question isn't so much about whether Denver and Tebow can score, it's whether they'll be able to keep the Patriots from piling up points once again.
The Broncos-Patriots game in the regular season showed that Denver's defense is the unit that needs to make the biggest adjustment.
Vince Verhei is a contributor to the CFB and NFL sections of Rumor Central. He also writes the Quick Reads and Any Given Sunday columns covering the best players and biggest upsets each week of the NFL season, also available on ESPN Insider. He has been a writer and editor for Football Outsiders since 2007. Follow him on Twitter at @FO_VVerhei.

Tombstone RJ
01-12-2012, 12:07 PM
They were at least willing to note something that very few media outlets have recognized regarding the Broncos regular season game against the Pats:



Read the whole thing here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7453830/bill-barnwell-breaks-sunday-denver-broncos-new-england-patriots-playoff-matchup

Good read, I highly recommend.

Good read for sure, about 100 times better than the crap you see on esspin or yahoo or other websites.

BroncoFanDoug
01-12-2012, 12:08 PM
Can't disagree with anything he said. He very clearly, unlike most writers, watched both games and is familiar with both teams.

Hilarious!

Can't believe some of the stuff I hear from the MSM, where it is sooooo obvious they did not even watch the game they are analyzing with such authority...

BroncoBeavis
01-12-2012, 02:58 PM
Hilarious!

Can't believe some of the stuff I hear from the MSM, where it is sooooo obvious they did not even watch the game they are analyzing with such authority...

I know, it's crazy. This year I've gotten the feeling I watch more football than some of these analysts. And I'm not as hard core about it as some guys I know.

Don't know if they're overanalyzing some of it too much... watching too many film breakdowns of individual plays, that they no longer get a sense for the entire game? Not sure where the disconnect is.

Agamemnon
01-12-2012, 03:01 PM
Sigh...turnovers are a part of the game and NE is what +14 or something. Thats how they play. Call it luck or whatever.

The point is that they didn't outright outplay the Broncos, but instead blew them out due primarily to ball security issues. So the logical conclusion would be that if the Broncos can avoid that, they have a decent chance of winning.

Gator20134
01-12-2012, 03:04 PM
The point is that they didn't outright outplay the Broncos, but instead blew them out due primarily to ball security issues. So the logical conclusion would be that if the Broncos can avoid that, they have a decent chance of winning.

I guess. They were also down 21-0 to the Bills and came back and won 49-21. Are they just slow starters? I have no idea. They can definitely score a ton though, much more effectively than Pitt. Also they are at home this time around, much easier for Brady to do his damn audibles.

Rohirrim
01-12-2012, 03:20 PM
It's worth noting that in two of Brady's three notable recent playoff losses, the defeats by the Giants in 2007 and the Jets in 2011, the opposing team was able to sack Brady five times. Those are the only two games over the past seven seasons, playoff or regular season, in which Brady was sacked five times.4

That pretty much wraps the whole thing up, in two sentences.

Steve Prefontaine
01-12-2012, 07:09 PM
Good read for sure, about 100 times better than the crap you see on esspin or yahoo or other websites.

I agree. Good article for sure.

But Grantland is owned by ESPN.

Agamemnon
01-12-2012, 07:17 PM
I guess. They were also down 21-0 to the Bills and came back and won 49-21. Are they just slow starters? I have no idea. They can definitely score a ton though, much more effectively than Pitt. Also they are at home this time around, much easier for Brady to do his damn audibles.

The Bills turned it over all over the place after they took that big lead. It was a very similar situation actually.

epicSocialism4tw
01-12-2012, 10:15 PM
It's a good write up but he's wrong about special teams. Prater is still a weapon away from Denver. He hit game winners against both Miami and San Diego on the road (at sea level) of 50+ yards.

I thought the same thing. Denver has a special teams advantage. I imagine that he was defaulting to the "Quan Cosby fumbled a punt" thing, but other than that Special Teams have been solid if not spectacular all year long.

He also made an irrelevant point about injuries. Denver had just as many injuries last week and seemed to do just fine. Denver seems to be a group who do not make excuses.

Then he made some irrelevent allusion to the Seattle team of last year and "puffed up chests" going on to lose to Chicago. Denver is a veteran-led team and I don't think he understands the mentality of the Broncos at all.