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enjolras
12-22-2011, 11:29 PM
So in the wake of the Houston loss tonight, I'm trying to figure out what it would take for the Broncos to land the 3-seed (and thus avoid Pittsburgh in the first round).

Houston is now 10-5 and is facing Tennessee at home next week. That's a game they can definitely lose, which means that if the Broncos win out both teams will finish the season at 10-6.

The tie-breakers are:

1. Head-to-head: not applicable
2. Conference record: Both would be 8-4 in conference
3. Won-loss record in common games, minimum four games: I believe they toss out division games for this which means that only Miami and Cincinnati would qualify. So this would not be applicable.
4. Strength of victory: Currently Houston has a .404 SOV and the Broncos have a .446. I'm not going to calculate all of the possibilities here, but at a quick glance I think it would be very difficult for the Broncos to lose out on that tie-breaker. It would require a bunch of teams to tank completely over the next two weeks.

So long story short, if the Broncos win out and Houston loses next week I think we'd likely secure the #3 seed in the AFC. I think that would be huge in terms of giving this team a chance to move into the divisional round.

spdirty
12-22-2011, 11:41 PM
I'd rather have the 4. I want to play ****tsburgh. Then I want another crack at New England.

3 gives us a better chance on paper, but if Omars twin keeps being a dumbass and not letting Ben heal, and Ben keeps getting beat up and looking like crap, I like our chances against them.

Br0nc0Buster
12-22-2011, 11:43 PM
You're right

If we win our next two games and the Texans lose to the Titans we leap them for the 3rd seed

Jets prolly get the 6th seed, they would be my guess

Steelers prolly get 5th seed
Big Ben is banged up
We already played the Jets

Either way I dont have a preference between those teams

with that said any of those teams could easily beat us as well IMO

Doggcow
12-22-2011, 11:46 PM
Would be awesome to play the 6 seed for sure.

Archer81
12-23-2011, 12:07 AM
One thing at a time.

Beat Buffalo. Work on securing the division. Then worry about seeding.

:Broncos:

ZONA
12-23-2011, 12:51 AM
Easy now. We still have to win this division, in which we have a whopping 1 game lead. Let's win the next 2 first. I'll be happy to make the playoffs and let's go from there.

RunSilentRunDeep
12-23-2011, 06:34 AM
I want Pittsburgh. I hate them more than I hate Baltimore. I wouldn't mind a Nor'easter rolling through foxboro for a rematch with the Pats.

Shotgun Willie
12-23-2011, 07:24 AM
One thing at a time.

Beat Buffalo. Work on securing the division. Then worry about seeding.

:Broncos:

We're not playing the game this weekend. We can look ahead and speculate all we want. Hell, there's already been multiple 2012 draft prognostication threads on the main page which have gotten heavy traffic.

55CrushEm
12-23-2011, 07:32 AM
The question to me is this....

IF we win the division this weekend (by beating Buffalo and KC beating Oakland)......now we have a decision to make.

1. Had Houston won last night....the 3 seed would have been out of the question, and therefore we could choose to rest in the final week, as the 4 seed would be locked for us.

2. But now that Houston lost.....and the possibility remains for us to get the 3 seed.....is that what we will WANT? I.e. some teams wouldn't try to improve their seeding....because they see it as both the 3 and 4 seeds play in the first round anyway.....and as far as the next round....1 and 2 are equally bad ass.....so it doesn't matter to them if they are 3 or 4. Ultimately, we may rest, or we may play and shoot for the 3 seed.

Lastly, none of this will matter if Oakland wins this weekend....because we can't win the division until the final week in that scenario.....and then we obviously will be playing to beat KC in final week.....no rest.

OEII
12-23-2011, 07:35 AM
I'd rather have the 4. I want to play ****tsburgh. Then I want another crack at New England.

3 gives us a better chance on paper, but if Omars twin keeps being a dumbass and not letting Ben heal, and Ben keeps getting beat up and looking like crap, I like our chances against them.

I like the idea of another crack at the pats ( I think we will beat them!); however, Pittsburgh scares the crap out of me. Of all the teams, Pittsburgh offers the least favorable match ups for us.

SpringStein
12-23-2011, 08:03 AM
Would be awesome to play the 6 seed for sure.

I know we beat them, but I don't like how we match up vs Jets if they get #6 seed.

55CrushEm
12-23-2011, 08:09 AM
If Tennessee wins out (they have Jax and Houston).....and the Jets lose 1 (they have the Giants and @ Miami).........and we win out.....

Then we'd be the 3 seed, playing Tennessee in the first round.

FWIW.....I think this could be very likely. It would really hinge on the Tenn/Houston game......by winning that, Tennessee would accomplish 2 things.....get themselves the 6 seed, and vault us into the 3 seed.

BroncoBeavis
12-23-2011, 08:18 AM
If Tennessee wins out (they have Jax and Houston).....and the Jets lose 1 (they have the Giants and @ Miami).........and we win out.....

Then we'd be the 3 seed, playing Tennessee in the first round.

FWIW.....I think this could be very likely. It would really hinge on the Tenn/Houston game......by winning that, Tennessee would accomplish 2 things.....get themselves the 6 seed, and vault us into the 3 seed.

I'm pulling for Tennessee to lose regardless. They stand in the way of our wildcard back door. We have HTH tiebreakers against the other two likely suspects

ludo21
12-23-2011, 08:20 AM
id like to play a banged up Rothlesberger (pending he plays the last 2 weeks)

55CrushEm
12-23-2011, 08:25 AM
I'm pulling for Tennessee to lose regardless. They stand in the way of our wildcard back door. We have HTH tiebreakers against the other two likely suspects

Agreed. With a Cincy, Tenn and Jets loss this week.....we clinch 6 seed with win over Buffalo.

I still would love the 3 seed though.....so I'll be pulling for Tennesse next week over Houston, regardless (assuming we win out).

Then we'd probably get the Jets, then Baltimore in round 2.....I like that. Flacco sucks.......and we'd avoid Pittsburgh.

spdirty
12-23-2011, 08:30 AM
If Tennessee wins out (they have Jax and Houston).....and the Jets lose 1 (they have the Giants and @ Miami).........and we win out.....

Then we'd be the 3 seed, playing Tennessee in the first round.

FWIW.....I think this could be very likely. It would really hinge on the Tenn/Houston game......by winning that, Tennessee would accomplish 2 things.....get themselves the 6 seed, and vault us into the 3 seed.

Yeah, Tennessee would be the best matchup for us I think. Would much rather play them than the Jets defense and playoffs Mark Sanchez.

Archer81
12-23-2011, 08:37 AM
We're not playing the game this weekend. We can look ahead and speculate all we want. Hell, there's already been multiple 2012 draft prognostication threads on the main page which have gotten heavy traffic.


In my experience its best to focus on what is happening now, rather than focus on what could happen if events A, B and C happen.

That's just me though.

:Broncos:

BroncoBeavis
12-23-2011, 08:37 AM
Agreed. With a Cincy, Tenn and Jets loss this week.....we clinch 6 seed with win over Buffalo.

I still would love the 3 seed though.....so I'll be pulling for Tennesse next week over Houston, regardless (assuming we win out).

Then we'd probably get the Jets, then Baltimore in round 2.....I like that. Flacco sucks.......and we'd avoid Pittsburgh.

If TEN loses this week to JAX, then I'll be right there with you. Until then I'll be cheering for teams to eliminate themselves before worrying about our seeding.

55CrushEm
12-23-2011, 08:43 AM
In my experience its best to focus on what is happening now, rather than focus on what could happen if events A, B and C happen.

That's just me though.

:Broncos:

Yeah...that's just you. I like projecting the many possible playoff scenarios....it's fun.

As far as the players go.....yes, THEY should be worrying about the "now". Not me....I have that luxury.

Rohirrim
12-23-2011, 08:45 AM
I just want to see the playoffs again. I don't care where it is or who we face.

Shotgun Willie
12-23-2011, 08:45 AM
In my experience its best to focus on what is happening now, rather than focus on what could happen if events A, B and C happen.

That's just me though.

:Broncos:

If it's something I can control, then yes, I can see why it might be preferable to go that route.

Archer81
12-23-2011, 08:48 AM
If it's something I can control, then yes, I can see why it might be preferable to go that route.


The 3 game slide to end 2008 was a harsh teacher.


:Broncos:

OABB
12-23-2011, 08:59 AM
I just want to see the playoffs again. I don't care where it is or who we face.

This. and this only.

MplsBronco
12-23-2011, 09:01 AM
However we avoid the Ravens the longest is my preference. That team just owns us.

MplsBronco
12-23-2011, 09:19 AM
Was just messing with that playoff machine on ESPN. If we win out and Houston loses, it's not inconceivable that we would play Cincy, Tenn or SD. Not to mention the Jets.

LetsGoBroncos
12-23-2011, 09:29 AM
The funny thing is the best matchup would be to get the #6 seed and play the Texans even though it would be on the road. The problem with that is that requires us losing to KC and beating Buffalo along with help in other games. I don't want to go down that road

Pick Six
12-23-2011, 10:06 AM
Kubiak is a Shanahan acolyte. Therefore, it's very possible that he screws it up...

OrangeSe7en
12-23-2011, 10:13 AM
I just want to see the playoffs again. I don't care where it is or who we face.

This is where Im at. I have my preferences of when/how/who we play like anyone else but just getting there easily trumps all the scenarios for me.

And another aspect is that I just dont want to see history repeated of being at 8-6 and ending at 8-8.

Toshiro Takashi
12-23-2011, 10:17 AM
I want Pittsburgh. I hate them more than I hate Baltimore. I wouldn't mind a Nor'easter rolling through foxboro for a rematch with the Pats.

GREAT point. The Pats are scared of snow.

Dedhed
12-23-2011, 10:48 AM
I want Pittsburgh.

Blart
12-23-2011, 11:53 AM
Great analysis and thread, but I'd be happy with any playoffs.

If we lose against Buffalo this week, the 8-7 Broncos might have to face the 7-8 Chiefs.

Hulamau
12-23-2011, 12:15 PM
All I want for Xmas is another 6 game consecutive win streak starting Saturday in Buffalo ... that isn't too much to ask Santa, is it?!?!

Archer81
12-23-2011, 12:40 PM
All I want for Xmas is another 6 game consecutive win streak starting Saturday in Buffalo ... that isn't too much to ask Santa, is it?!?!

Not at all. Anything is possible in the playoffs.


:Broncos:

go_broncos
12-23-2011, 04:33 PM
I am worried if we can win a game against Buffalo tomorrow..Remember, 3 years ago when we faced Buffalo and lost.
No game is easy especially to current team that plays conservative.
I don't care about the seeding..We need to reach playoffs.

broncosteven
12-23-2011, 05:07 PM
I just want to beat Buff, and go into the playoffs legit with mojo, Just getting into the playoffs this year is a huge accomplishment after the debacle of the last 2 years.

Jetmeck
12-23-2011, 05:09 PM
IF we make the playoffs tomorrow............rest em next week especially the old man Willis's hamstring.

Arkie
12-23-2011, 06:17 PM
It's still mathematically possible for the Broncos to get a first round bye.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=04151004&16=44015400

Archer81
12-23-2011, 06:19 PM
It's still mathematically possible for the Broncos to get a first round bye.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=04151004&16=44015400


I thought about that when NFLN showed AFC playoff picture. It would require Balt/Pitt/Houston to lose their remaining games and for us to win both...but how f'ing nuts would that be to go from 4-12 to the 2nd seed in the AFC with a first round bye?

Whoa.

:Broncos:

Scarface
12-23-2011, 07:27 PM
Was just messing with that playoff machine on ESPN. If we win out and Houston loses, it's not inconceivable that we would play Cincy, Tenn or SD. Not to mention the Jets.

That sounds better than Pittsburgh!

Scarface
12-23-2011, 07:35 PM
I am worried if we can win a game against Buffalo tomorrow..Remember, 3 years ago when we faced Buffalo and lost.
No game is easy especially to current team that plays conservative.
I don't care about the seeding..We need to reach playoffs.

Reminds me more of the trip to BUF in '97. The players had a hard time getting to the airport because of a snow storm in DEN. I heard DEN just recently got dumped on by a bunch of snow. The'97 squad had good mojo. This team has good mojo.

LaneLosh2
12-23-2011, 08:04 PM
I'd rather have the 4. I want to play ****tsburgh. Then I want another crack at New England.

3 gives us a better chance on paper, but if Omars twin keeps being a dumbass and not letting Ben heal, and Ben keeps getting beat up and looking like crap, I like our chances against them.

Wait, you want to play the Steelers and Patriots? Are you out of you out of your mind!

Archer81
12-23-2011, 08:08 PM
Wait, you want to play the Steelers and Patriots? Are you out of you out of your mind!


I'm sorry, are NE or Pitt so good that anyone facing them should just quit before the game starts?

NE was lucky to win in Denver last weekend. Their defense did not stop the Bronco offense. Turnovers did. Those fumbles don't happen, the game goes alot differently.

And I dont give a **** how that sounds. There is not a single complete team in the playoffs or competing for playoffs this year. Not one team.

:Broncos:

canadianbroncosfan
12-23-2011, 08:14 PM
It's still mathematically possible for the Broncos to get a first round bye.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=04151004&16=44015400

Making the playoffs is a great scenario, this is THE BEST scenario

doonwise
12-23-2011, 08:15 PM
One thing at a time.

Beat Buffalo. Work on securing the division. Then worry about seeding.

:Broncos:

This, so much this.

doonwise
12-23-2011, 08:17 PM
NE was lucky to win in Denver last weekend. Their defense did not stop the Bronco offense. Turnovers did. Those fumbles don't happen, the game goes alot differently.


They weren't lucky: they made plays and we didn't. That is why they won, which is exactly how we dominated on our 7-1 run. Give them credit they totally beat us. That doesn't mean we can't beat them, but it does mean we need to have our **** together next time.

Archer81
12-23-2011, 08:26 PM
They weren't lucky: they made plays and we didn't. That is why they won, which is exactly how we dominated on our 7-1 run. Give them credit they totally beat us. That doesn't mean we can't beat them, but it does mean we need to have our **** together next time.


Denver fumbling it three times in a single quarter is luck. I will not deny NE is a good team. You cannot fumble that often in a single quarter and hope to win. That said, three turnovers inside Bronco territory was lucky for NE. Denver can go games and not turn it over three times.

:Broncos: