PDA

View Full Version : QB accuracy versus Drops: A discussion of the NYJ's game.


Mediator12
11-19-2011, 04:08 PM
Let's talk about QB throws in the NFL versus drops here first so we can get a working dialog going. QB throws need several things to be accurate in the NFL.

1. On time. Receiver is able to expect the pass once he gets seperation and before he loses it.
2. In stride. Receiver does not have to adjust his body outside of a normal position to make a catch.
3. In the right window. The Window is the area the ball needs to be thrown to expect a catch. Windows in the NFL are usually much smaller than college, and much more important to hit to make completions in the NFL.

If, and only if, those first three things occur and the Receiver has no other player interfering with a catch is a ball that the Receiver does not catch labeled as a drop by NFL coaches.

Otherwise, it can be labled as Catchable, uncatchable, or thrown away. It is quite obvious reading the latest threads many fans of this board do not realize the difference. However, they will post unreliable and non-valid claims to support their bias at any time.

Here is a coaching breakdown of all 22 attempted passes by Tebow in the NYJ's game:

1st. Quarter throws:
1-10-DEN 20 (15:00) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass deep left to D.Thomas ran ob at DEN 48 for 28 yards. This is a 4x1 WR concept isolating Thomas on the weak side versus Cromartie. They threw this 5 times in the game to Thomas, but the first one was the best execution by far. The Jets were not ready for it, and the backshoulder fade throw was well thrown and caught.

2-6-NYJ 37 (12:00) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short middle to L.Ball to NYJ 30 for 7 yards (E.Smith). Option shotgun, shovel pass. Tebow makes the read and delivers the ball with all three accuracy elements. Great playcall and great execution.

3-9-NYJ 29 (10:37) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to J.Johnson to NYJ 21 for 8 yards (C.Pace). Spread motion screen pass with Johnson leveraging the zone defense. Second consecutive completion at or behind the LOS.

2-6-NYJ 19 (6:05) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker. First pass outside the accuracy parameters. Tebow has good intial protection, but does not have open target initially. He scrambles left, but delivers the ball late, out of stride, and barely in the window. Very hard catchable ball. This is NOT a drop. It is a catchable ball.

2cd. Quarter throws:
3-11-NYJ 40 (10:29) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to E.Royal to NYJ 38 for 2 yards (J.Leonhard). This is another Behind the LOS screen pass into man coverage. Very safe, poorly executed play. Accuracy is not an issue.

3-10-NYJ 48 (6:42) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to D.Fells. This is a TE deep in route that Tebow misses completely. Fells has seperation and the pass is on time, but uncatchable and outside the window.

2-6-DEN 42 (2:00) (Shotgun) T.Tebow sacked ob at DEN 42 for 0 yards (C.Pace). This was a good play by Tebow. No one open and early pressure. He pulls the ball down and tries to make a play. In the end, this was the correct decision and he almost made something out of nothing.

3-6-DEN 42 (1:52) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to E.Royal to DEN 47 for 5 yards (K.Wilson). This was a bad route and possibly a bad zone option read by Royal. Tebow makes a solid throw, but Royal misses the First down with a short route.

3rd. Quarter throws:
2-9-DEN 13 (10:08) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to L.Ball to DEN 32 for 19 yards (K.Wilson). This is the fourth LOS pass and Ball makes a great play after catching the ball. Tebow hits all three accuracy marks here, and screen passes can be hard to be accurate.

1-10-DEN 43 (8:42) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker. This is another scramble play and Decker does an excellent job of coming back to the ball. However, this is Tebow's most dangerous throw of the night. He throws the ball way inside the window and the CB has a pick if Decker does not get his fingertips on it.

3-7-DEN 46 (7:57) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep middle to E.Decker. This was a Corner post route off a CB blitz with both safeties covering Decker. There is Great protection and Tebow misses with an uncatchable throw.

2-10-NYJ 49 (5:47) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker. Tebow gets instant pressure and should have been sacked, but he scrambles left again and gets a pass off to Decker. The pass is Late and misses the Window hard and inside. The pass was catchable though, even though it is one of the hardest catches WR's have to make since they have to put their hands one up and one down to reach behind them. The pass was also a bullet and that made it increase in difficulty. Way too many O'maners want to chalk this up as a drop. It misses in more than one way to be a drop however. It was a hard to catch ball that Decker did not make in reality.

3-10-NYJ 49 (5:39) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to D.Thomas. The only ball thrown to Thomas outside the 4x1 Spread all night. Tebow has great protection, is able to come off his first read, and then plant to make the throw in the open window. The throw is on time, out of stride, and misses the Window in an almost uncatchable ball. However, Thomas huge frame allows him to almost get his whole hands on the ball. Instead, he only gets his fingertips on the ball. This was a big missed throw. This was the second largest window Tebow had to complete a pass all game, and he made a poor throw here.

2-11-NYJ 43 (3:37) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to E.Royal. Royal gets seperation on Revis, who has inside help from Smith. The only place Tebow can put the ball is low and outside. He does just that, but he misses the window again to the outside just like his previous pass to Thomas. Both of these are harder to catch than they should have been if they were thrown accurately. Both WR's only get fingertips on the ball, NOT hands. Neither are anywhere close to drops.

3-11-NYJ 43 (3:29) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep right to L.Ball. Tebow Pressured almost immediately and basically throws the ball away. He was rolling to his right and had two guys near Ball. Right decision IMHO.

3-7-DEN 21 (:03) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to E.Decker [D.Harris]. Tebow under heavy Pressure throws ball away. Smart play, no Turnover.

4th Quarter throws:

1-10-DEN 5 (5:54) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short right to E.Royal pushed ob at DEN 13 for 8 yards (D.Revis). The Fifth LOS throw, out of the pistol to a Covered Royal. Royal makes a great play on Leonard to get the eight yards. This was a huge play. If Tebow misses this throw's accuracy, Royal might get a safety and game over.

1-10-DEN 28 (4:43) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass short left to D.Thomas pushed ob at DEN 37 for 9 yards (A.Cromartie). The spread 4x1 concept with Thomas isolated on Cromartie again. This time they run the comeback perfectly. Ball is accurate in all three measures.

2-1-DEN 37 (4:36) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete deep left to D.Thomas. Spread 4x1 again. This time Tebow and Thomas miscommunicate. No throw evaluation on this.

1-10-NYJ 44 (3:02) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short left to D.Thomas. Spread 4x1 with the Comeback again. This was a blown pass. Thomas was open again, ball was thrown on time and in the dirt though. Uncatchable.

2-10-NYJ 44 (2:57) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass deep left to D.Rosario to NYJ 26 for 18 yards (E.Smith). Jets go Man to man for the first time in awhile and try to pressure Tebow. Rosario runs a great route, gets a huge window for Tebow to throw into. Tebow gets it out on time, out of stride, but in the window. This was his best NFL throw of the night. He was under pressure and stuck in the pocket and got the pass to the right receiver at the right time.

tsiguy96
11-19-2011, 04:16 PM
Mediator pwnage. Great job.

TDmvp
11-19-2011, 04:22 PM
Repped for quality read... ty.

CEH
11-19-2011, 04:32 PM
What is the end result of how each player is graded? If the ball is catchable but is not caught is the QB downgraded, WR downgraded, neither or both?

Mediator12
11-19-2011, 04:36 PM
The analysis for this is where was Tebow accurate and where did the WR's make drops.

Tebow's Accuracy notes:

-Tebow is Very accurate in the short passing game, including the screen game.
-Tebow was inconsistent throwing the deep ball and the Deep outs and comebacks versus the Jets.
-He struggled a lot more on the run with his accuracy that night than he usually does.
-He was missing both inside the windows and high going to his left, but low and outside to his right all night long.

For the WR's:
-Decker had several catchable balls that he missed. I really can not say any of them were drops, but he sure could have come up with one of them.
-Thomas was getting open when we threw the ball and he caught every catchable ball that came his way
-Ball had a Great night in the short passing game
-Royal caught every catchable ball and almost grabbed a ball thrown outside the window as well. However, he made a poor route not be a first down catch.


What I really saw was this:

Tebow had 9 completions in 20 throws. Of the 11 incompletions:

1. 2 were throw aways
2. 1 was a miscommunication
3. 2 were catchable balls
4. 6 were uncatchable throws

His inaccuracy was mostly the whole third Quarter when he missed on four outside the numbers throws. Overall, it was not a horribly inaccurate performance. However, it was also not a very accurate performance either. This is probably why its a good thing to just run the ball and soften the defense up on the passes. He only had one questionable throw in 22 dropbacks and that is a great %.

DBroncos4life
11-19-2011, 04:38 PM
We need blackman.

Steve Prefontaine
11-19-2011, 04:39 PM
Great post. Thanks the breakdown and info Med.

Med, on the last throw, could you tell if Tebow's arm got hit while he was throwing?

Mediator12
11-19-2011, 04:46 PM
What is the end result of how each player is graded? If the ball is catchable but is not caught is the QB downgraded, WR downgraded, neither or both?

Every part of the play is graded. The QB is responsible for all three elements. If he hits all three its a plus. If he hits 2 its a push. If he only hits 1 its a minus. Throw Away's and miscommunications are not graded as throws but decisions.

For the WR, The rule is if the ball hits you in the hands, you need to catch it. So, for those catchable balls it all depends if you can get both hands, not both fingertips, around the ball. If you do, but do not catch the ball its a minus. However, the degree of the catch also comes into play here. 4 things go into the catch. Extension, catching, tucking, and turning. If the receiver has to extend so far to make the catch he can not tuck the ball, then it can be a push. This is what happened on the first catchable throw to Decker on the sidelines. He was never able to secure the ball to catch it. the second ball that was catchable was the hardest catch a WR has got to make. He would have gotten a minus for it, but not a drop.

vonqkilla
11-19-2011, 05:02 PM
Please analyze the kc game.

cutthemdown
11-19-2011, 05:08 PM
In short Tebow needs to be better, and so do the WR. A few more nice grabs, a few more accurate passes, with this run game and defense we can win some games.

Jay3
11-19-2011, 05:08 PM
3-10-NYJ 49 (5:39) (Shotgun) T.Tebow pass incomplete short right to D.Thomas. The only ball thrown to Thomas outside the 4x1 Spread all night. Tebow has great protection, is able to come off his first read, and then plant to make the throw in the open window. The throw is on time, out of stride, and misses the Window in an almost uncatchable ball. However, Thomas huge frame allows him to almost get his whole hands on the ball. Instead, he only gets his fingertips on the ball. This was a big missed throw. This was the second largest window Tebow had to complete a pass all game, and he made a poor throw here.

This one frustrated me with D.T. the most. There was a large amount of real estate in front of him, and the defender was boxed behind him. The defender can begin to dig and break on the ball. This is a ball that, to me, is dangerous if you put it right where D.T. is standing. I think Tebow put it in the green space in front of Thomas, and Thomas had inactive feet on the play. He needs to box out, get his feet under him, and work his way back to the quarterback.

It may have been a little too much in front of him, but I'm not sure about that. I think Brandon Lloyd works back to the ball on that and catches it for a key first down.

Mediator12
11-19-2011, 05:15 PM
This one frustrated me with D.T. the most. There was a large amount of real estate in front of him, and the defender was boxed behind him. The defender can begin to dig and break on the ball. This is a ball that, to me, is dangerous if you put it right where D.T. is standing. I think Tebow put it in the green space in front of Thomas, and Thomas had inactive feet on the play. He needs to box out, get his feet under him, and work his way back to the quarterback.

It may have been a little too much in front of him, but I'm not sure about that. I think Brandon Lloyd works back to the ball on that and catches it for a key first down.

It depends on the route. It looked like a Comeback and Tebow threw an out. The more I Watch that now, it looks like the ball was later, not late, and way too low for a 6'3 guy on that pattern.

RhymesayersDU
11-19-2011, 05:21 PM
Fantastic read.

Houshyamama
11-19-2011, 05:28 PM
:thumbsup: Thanks bro

CEH
11-19-2011, 05:49 PM
Every part of the play is graded. The QB is responsible for all three elements. If he hits all three its a plus. If he hits 2 its a push. If he only hits 1 its a minus. Throw Away's and miscommunications are not graded as throws but decisions.

For the WR, The rule is if the ball hits you in the hands, you need to catch it. So, for those catchable balls it all depends if you can get both hands, not both fingertips, around the ball. If you do, but do not catch the ball its a minus. However, the degree of the catch also comes into play here. 4 things go into the catch. Extension, catching, tucking, and turning. If the receiver has to extend so far to make the catch he can not tuck the ball, then it can be a push. This is what happened on the first catchable throw to Decker on the sidelines. He was never able to secure the ball to catch it. the second ball that was catchable was the hardest catch a WR has got to make. He would have gotten a minus for it, but not a drop.

Thanks for the info. I assume a catchable ball in the NFL must be caught. So Decker did not have a very good night. I think both Decker's non catches should have been caught. But out of Tebow's 11 incompletions over half were uncatchable. That too doesn't sound like a stat EFX can live with either.

It also seems an average NFL WR would not have too many drops other wise they wont be long for the league.

TJ96
11-19-2011, 06:08 PM
Tim Tebow just ended the Jetsí season and put the NFL on notice of his talent. This will be known as the Drive II. (http://thexlog.com/201111180750/xtra-point-football/nfl/tim-tebow-the-drive-ii/)..

Dedhed
11-19-2011, 06:18 PM
Great analysis and read. However, I don't think that it absolves the WRs for dropping "Catchable" balls.

We all know Tebow needs to improve on a lot of things in the passing dept; Footwork, timing, accuracy, etc. But there are WRs on every team making those catches every Sunday and our WRs just aren't.

Mediator12
11-19-2011, 06:26 PM
Great analysis and read. However, I don't think that it absolves the WRs for dropping "Catchable" balls.

We all know Tebow needs to improve on a lot of things in the passing dept; Footwork, timing, accuracy, etc. But there are WRs on every team making those catches every Sunday and our WRs just aren't.

Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so. Sometimes its passes defensed, sometimes its degree of difficulty, and sometimes its just not being able to secure the catch. Drops are another story entirely.

Decker was the only WR to drop any catchable balls versus the Jets. However, the opposite is also true. He could have had a huge game if Tebow threw the ball more accurately. The QB/WR dynamic can never be truly seperated. They both depend on each other to make plays in the passing game.

I will tell you what I liked about Decker. He blocked like a madman against the Jets as well. Watch who stopped the punk Cromartie on that TD run ;D

vonqkilla
11-19-2011, 06:27 PM
Tim Tebow just ended the Jetsí season and put the NFL on notice of his talent. This will be known as the Drive II. (http://thexlog.com/201111180750/xtra-point-football/nfl/tim-tebow-the-drive-ii/)..

Sacrilege! Blasphemy!

Broncos Oilers....

Dedhed
11-19-2011, 06:30 PM
Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so.

What's our %?

broncobum6162
11-19-2011, 06:30 PM
Great read and excellent analysis. Too bad the talking heads dont give this type of analysis. I did see some videos today from Skip Bayless on Espin and I thought he was on the money too. Thank you for your efforts!

Bronx33
11-19-2011, 06:30 PM
Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so. Sometimes its passes defensed, sometimes its degree of difficulty, and sometimes its just not being able to secure the catch. Drops are another story entirely.

Decker was the only WR to drop any catchable balls versus the Jets. However, the opposite is also true. He could have had a huge game if Tebow threw the ball more accurately. The QB/WR dynamic can never be truly seperated. They both depend on each other to make plays in the passing game.

I will tell you what I liked about Decker. He blocked like a madman against the Jets as well. Watch who stopped the punk Cromartie on that TD run ;D


I agree with this assessment tebow really needs to work on accuracy sure its great to have receivers that can haul in poor passes but why make it harder than it has to be.

Mediator12
11-19-2011, 06:34 PM
What's our %?

I do not know. I have had little ability to do my normal analysis of the Broncos this year. I have only caught three of the games live! This is the first game I wanted to break down this way. Doing the defense next. I love their heart and DL play in this game!

GreatBronco16
11-19-2011, 06:39 PM
I don't understand how you call a pass a catchable ball, but at the same time don't call it a drop by the WR.

This is ofcourse of the passes that hit the WR in their hands and have no outside interference from the defense.

Bronx33
11-19-2011, 06:39 PM
I do not know. I have had little ability to do my normal analysis of the Broncos this year. I have only caught three of the games live! This is the first game I wanted to break down this way. Doing the defense next. I love their heart and DL play in this game!


I know i am not alone med when i say i look forward to your takes it really helps me understand whats going on anyways i hope you get more free time :~ohyah!:

vonqkilla
11-19-2011, 06:44 PM
Just to expound on ” the what ” Med has stated, is the ” the why”.

Why is he inaccurate? Ive gone at lengths about his feet, mechanics, etc...

But then why was he accurate late vs mia, kc, and nyj?

The answer comes from Tim. ” I believe most important thing is decision making”

Read between the lines. He's afraid of making a mistake, until he has no choice.

Phone dying, but last drive he took off when it wasnt there, 2 drives earlier forced a pass, chained to pocket whole game, no runs on pass plays. Thats coaching folks. Phone dying. Damn.

He missed rosario wide left, afraid of pick early, throws catchable ball late, not a coincidence. Misses DT outside early, hits him late in the #s, trust me, he takes off mental shackles late in games.

He aims to a safe place early, afraid of ints.

” decision making ”

When he gets confident teammates trust him and if he was declared the man, he wouldnt be so afraid to miss, and would be 10% completion % better.

He knows late he HAS TO BE THE MAN.

<---- trust

gyldenlove
11-19-2011, 06:48 PM
The analysis for this is where was Tebow accurate and where did the WR's make drops.

Tebow's Accuracy notes:

-Tebow is Very accurate in the short passing game, including the screen game.
-Tebow was inconsistent throwing the deep ball and the Deep outs and comebacks versus the Jets.
-He struggled a lot more on the run with his accuracy that night than he usually does.
-He was missing both inside the windows and high going to his left, but low and outside to his right all night long.

For the WR's:
-Decker had several catchable balls that he missed. I really can not say any of them were drops, but he sure could have come up with one of them.
-Thomas was getting open when we threw the ball and he caught every catchable ball that came his way
-Ball had a Great night in the short passing game
-Royal caught every catchable ball and almost grabbed a ball thrown outside the window as well. However, he made a poor route not be a first down catch.


What I really saw was this:

Tebow had 9 completions in 20 throws. Of the 11 incompletions:

1. 2 were throw aways
2. 1 was a miscommunication
3. 2 were catchable balls
4. 6 were uncatchable throws

His inaccuracy was mostly the whole third Quarter when he missed on four outside the numbers throws. Overall, it was not a horribly inaccurate performance. However, it was also not a very accurate performance either. This is probably why its a good thing to just run the ball and soften the defense up on the passes. He only had one questionable throw in 22 dropbacks and that is a great %.

I think most of the poorly thrown balls have been on out and curl routes, he seems to pretty consistently put those short and often outside.

The 3rd down pass to Royal that came up short was a bad combination, Royal squats on the 1st down line and if Tebow gets him in the numbers he can get the 1st, but Tebow makes the safer play and hits the outside away from the defender however this requires Royal to move forward to secure the ball which takes him off the 1st down marker and short. In that situation Royal should have gone a yard or two deeper before breaking.

Play2win
11-19-2011, 06:51 PM
Like I said before, Tebow is Jake Plummer re-engineered (genetically)...

Just substitue "Jake Plummer" for every "Tebow" and jump back to circa 2004...

Mediator12
11-19-2011, 07:00 PM
I don't understand how you call a pass a catchable ball, but at the same time don't call it a drop by the WR.

Drops infer its only the Receivers fault the ball hit the ground. Catchable balls are ones the WR has a chance to catch, but are not entirely drops.

Case in point: Wr gets both hands on ball, and free safety clocks him before he secures the catch. Should have caught the ball, but he was physically seperated from it.

From THU night: The high throw from Tebow on the sidelines to Decker that people first thought he caught, but lost once he hit the ground. The throw made it impossible to secure before he hit the ground, even though he got both hands on it. The ground dislodged the throw, but if it was lower he secures it and maybe does not even go to the ground.

yerner
11-19-2011, 07:06 PM
Drops infer its only the Receivers fault the ball hit the ground. Catchable balls are ones the WR has a chance to catch, but are not entirely drops.

Case in point: Wr gets both hands on ball, and free safety clocks him before he secures the catch. Should have caught the ball, but he was physically seperated from it.

From THU night: The high throw from Tebow on the sidelines to Decker that people first thought he caught, but lost once he hit the ground. The throw made it impossible to secure before he hit the ground, even though he got both hands on it. The ground dislodged the throw, but if it was lower he secures it and maybe does not even go to the ground.

Yep. Not to mention some of these drops were coming at wr as knuckleballs. The scramble throw to decker on the sideline for example. It's not only behind him but the long eye level angle they showed on the replay had the ball coming in with no spiral. It would have been a great catch.

GreatBronco16
11-19-2011, 07:12 PM
Drops infer its only the Receivers fault the ball hit the ground. Catchable balls are ones the WR has a chance to catch, but are not entirely drops.

Case in point: Wr gets both hands on ball, and free safety clocks him before he secures the catch. Should have caught the ball, but he was physically seperated from it.


See the second part of my post.

This is ofcourse of the passes that hit the WR in their hands and have no outside interference from the defense.

Agamemnon
11-19-2011, 10:12 PM
Let's talk about QB throws in the NFL versus drops here first so we can get a working dialog going. QB throws need several things to be accurate in the NFL.

1. On time. Receiver is able to expect the pass once he gets seperation and before he loses it.
2. In stride. Receiver does not have to adjust his body outside of a normal position to make a catch.
3. In the right window. The Window is the area the ball needs to be thrown to expect a catch. Windows in the NFL are usually much smaller than college, and much more important to hit to make completions in the NFL.

If, and only if, those first three things occur and the Receiver has no other player interfering with a catch is a ball that the Receiver does not catch labeled as a drop by NFL coaches.

Sorry, but no. A drop is any incomplete pass that hits a receiver in both hands, is not disrupted by a defender, and does not require the receiver to completely adjust his body position to get to it. It does not need to hit a receiver in stride (a receiver having to come back a bit for a deep ball that is under-thrown only to have it bounce off his hands for instance is still a drop), and it does not need to be "on time" as timing is relative and not even a factor on some passes (passes off of scramble drills in particular come to mind).

I'm not going to dispute your overall analysis because I don't have a tape of the game, but your definition of a dropped pass basically means that only perfect passes can be drops, and that's silly.

Agamemnon
11-19-2011, 10:19 PM
I agree with this assessment tebow really needs to work on accuracy sure its great to have receivers that can haul in poor passes but why make it harder than it has to be.

Yep, he needs to work on accuracy. But it's not just an option to have receivers that can make plays on less than perfectly placed balls, it's a necessity. At least if you want a good passing attack. Right now we are lacking in QB accuracy and in receivers who can make great catches, and that's a combo that makes passing in the NFL pretty much impossible.

errand
11-19-2011, 10:25 PM
Amazingly a guy spend half a page telling you that tim tebow has accuracy problems and that wide receivers did not drop as many passes as originally thought.... and not one time did anybody say

" Haters gonna hate"

Bronx33
11-19-2011, 10:46 PM
busted!!

Dr. Broncenstein
11-19-2011, 10:50 PM
Call me crazy, but I kind of expect professional receivers to catch balls that hit them in the hands.

extralife
11-19-2011, 11:11 PM
unless that ball is thrown by someone not named Tebow, of course.

Agamemnon
11-19-2011, 11:16 PM
Thanks for the info. I assume a catchable ball in the NFL must be caught. So Decker did not have a very good night. I think both Decker's non catches should have been caught. But out of Tebow's 11 incompletions over half were uncatchable. That too doesn't sound like a stat EFX can live with either.

It also seems an average NFL WR would not have too many drops other wise they wont be long for the league.

Most incompletions in the NFL are passes that are more or less uncatchable...

Archer81
11-19-2011, 11:19 PM
Tebow will throw bad passes...it happens. When a WR gets his hands on the ball, he has to catch it. That's their job, isnt it? The ball will not always be perfectly thrown with 3 yards of seperation. Adjust, make the play. Even though I think it's odd the closer to the 4th qtr the Broncos offense gets, the sharper the passing game becomes.

:Broncos:

Dr. Broncenstein
11-19-2011, 11:24 PM
This notion that the ball has to be delivered so that the receiver can catch it without effort is strange to me. Isn't that what separates a professional receiver from a track star? You know, the extraordinary ability to catch a football combined with the ability to run?

extralife
11-19-2011, 11:28 PM
This notion that the ball has to be caught no matter the circumstances is strange to me. Isn't that what separates a professional quarterback from a school yard slinger? You know, the extraordinary ability to throw a football combined with the ability to know where to throw it?

extralife
11-19-2011, 11:28 PM
see what I did there

Archer81
11-19-2011, 11:33 PM
see what I did there


So the WR takes none of the responsibility in the passing game? It almost seems for many of the people who is dissatisfied with Tebow would be making the opposite arguments if Orton remained starter. The issue then would not be the QB, but the WR's dropping catchable balls.

:Broncos:

Agamemnon
11-19-2011, 11:33 PM
see what I did there

Completely failed to address his point?

No one is saying Tebow doesn't need to work on his accuracy. We're saying that our receivers need to get a lot better too. Do you disagree?

Dr. Broncenstein
11-19-2011, 11:33 PM
see what I did there

You went full tard?

Agamemnon
11-19-2011, 11:35 PM
Tebow will throw bad passes...it happens. When a WR gets his hands on the ball, he has to catch it. That's their job, isnt it? The ball will not always be perfectly thrown with 3 yards of seperation. Adjust, make the play. Even though I think it's odd the closer to the 4th qtr the Broncos offense gets, the sharper the passing game becomes.

:Broncos:

You think it's odd? I don't. They start letting Tebow throw from spread formations and on 1st and 2nd down and voila...

extralife
11-19-2011, 11:39 PM
I think you all are maybe a little too stupid, which may have been the point of my post. This side or that side, pick one and scream until your erection subsides and the people like me on the sidelines lose our battle against mounting existential paranoia.

I literally posted the exact same thing as Broncenstein, MD. the form contains zero semantic content. it is the complete equivalent of a child screaming to hear his own voice. it's like masturbation only without the ten seconds of not-terror at the end. I can keep going.

and yet you all chose to read it as an actual attempt at an argument, because you are actually dumb enough to think that this is how people that didn't fall off the wagon as a child process information.

Agamemnon
11-19-2011, 11:51 PM
I think you all are maybe a little too stupid, which may have been the point of my post. This side or that side, pick one and scream until your erection subsides and the people like me on the sidelines lose our battle against mounting existential paranoia.

I literally posted the exact same thing as Broncenstein, MD. the form contains zero semantic content. it is the complete equivalent of a child screaming to hear his own voice. it's like masturbation only without the ten seconds of not-terror at the end. I can keep going.

and yet you all chose to read it as an actual attempt at an argument, because you are actually dumb enough to think that this is how people that didn't fall off the wagon as a child process information.

Nothing is quite so hilarious as when imbeciles attempt to look intelligent.

Hilarious!

He made a comment, that you replied to by flipping it around. By doing so you completely failed to address his point one way or the other, and then you actually tried to make it sound like doing so makes you smarter than the rest of us. All you did was make a pointless post. If anything is masturbatory, that is.

Dr. Broncenstein
11-19-2011, 11:54 PM
Your not smart as you thanked you we're.

/ see wut I did there?

Mediator12
11-20-2011, 06:03 AM
Sorry, but no. A drop is any incomplete pass that hits a receiver in both hands, is not disrupted by a defender, and does not require the receiver to completely adjust his body position to get to it. It does not need to hit a receiver in stride (a receiver having to come back a bit for a deep ball that is under-thrown only to have it bounce off his hands for instance is still a drop), and it does not need to be "on time" as timing is relative and not even a factor on some passes (passes off of scramble drills in particular come to mind).

I'm not going to dispute your overall analysis because I don't have a tape of the game, but your definition of a dropped pass basically means that only perfect passes can be drops, and that's silly.

I have defined this, spoken about the same issues, and even added emphasis about this through the thread. The definition of "drop" is that the WR is the sole reason the pass hits the ground and there is no other reason. Otherwise, the term is a catchable ball. I am sorry if that is not what YOU want it to be, but that's how its graded.

The other factors in your post are QB accuracy issues. The QB is responsible for those things, the WR has a responsibility to create route seperation and be in the window the ball is supposed to be on those throws, and catch the ball if it hits him in both hands.

You can make up your own definition of anything and we can start talking about that. However, it's not how its graded by the pros.

Mediator12
11-20-2011, 06:10 AM
Amazingly a guy spend half a page telling you that tim tebow has accuracy problems and that wide receivers did not drop as many passes as originally thought.... and not one time did anybody say

" Haters gonna hate"

This is what CAN happen if you talk about football, versus labeling like 6 year olds. Take some time, evaluate what really happens, grade it, analyze it and make your point.

This is why I came to the Mane in the first place. To provide analysis and make arguments based on the football part of things. Just because its almost a forgotten art around here, does not mean it should not be done.

And for the Record, Tebow is amazing. Never seen anything like him. Most intriguing player I have seen in a decade. Still do not know what to make of him though. He just breaks the Mold, and its new territory to evaluate. Cam Newton is the same way though, except he has thrown for 400+ yards several times and put up 28+ points and his defense could not help him win games this year.

tsiguy96
11-20-2011, 06:14 AM
This is what CAN happen if you talk about football, versus labeling like 6 year olds. Take some time, evaluate what really happens, grade it, analyze it and make your point.

This is why I came to the Mane in the first place. To provide analysis and make arguments based on the football part of things. Just because its almost a forgotten art around here, does not mean it should not be done.

And for the Record, Tebow is amazing. Never seen anything like him. Most intriguing player I have seen in a decade. Still do not know what to make of him though. He just breaks the Mold, and its new territory to evaluate. Cam Newton is the same way though, except he has thrown for 400+ yards several times and put up 35+ points and his defense could not help him win games this year.

that is the incredible part about tebow though...for some reason he DOES win games when he only scores 17 points, whereas orton was losing scoring more. whether its the turnovers or team play or whatever, tebows style of play is currently working to win games. cam newton is more of a mike vick than tebow it seems though.

Dr. Broncenstein
11-20-2011, 06:21 AM
Winning the turnover battle is statistically significant in the outcome of the game.

KO5K
11-20-2011, 06:48 AM
So our receivers didn't catch a single catchable ball? (I also disagree that only two of the incompletions were catchable).

I'd hazard a guess that that's been similar in all of Tebow's starts.

As far as I'm concerned, that's not acceptable. Tebow isn't accurate, but having WRs who only seem to catch close to perfect passes doesn't help either.

CEH
11-20-2011, 06:54 AM
I have defined this, spoken about the same issues, and even added emphasis about this through the thread. The definition of "drop" is that the WR is the sole reason the pass hits the ground and there is no other reason. Otherwise, the term is a catchable ball. I am sorry if that is not what YOU want it to be, but that's how its graded.

The other factors in your post are QB accuracy issues. The QB is responsible for those things, the WR has a responsibility to create route seperation and be in the window the ball is supposed to be on those throws, and catch the ball if it hits him in both hands.

You can make up your own definition of anything and we can start talking about that. However, it's not how its graded by the pros.

This was the exact reason I ask how would a catchable ball be graded. Things were all good when Decker was the issue but start talking about Tebows 11 incompletion with over half being uncatchable and now the Tebownites redefine the terms. This site sucks with so many Tebownites who can't just talk football. We all see that in the last 5:00 mins there might not be a better clutch QB than Tebow. We want him to get better in the first 55 and not always blame the OC or WR went the offense can't put points on the board or convert 3rd downs. Thank god the defense scored. A good team ties up that game at 10 , gets a fumble and the offense puts the dagger in and rolls the JETs from that point on.

Steve Prefontaine
11-20-2011, 06:54 AM
Amazingly a guy spend half a page telling you that tim tebow has accuracy problems and that wide receivers did not drop as many passes as originally thought.... and not one time did anybody say

" Haters gonna hate"

Totally. Thank you for being such an objective poster. Thanks for contributing to this football discussion. Your insights are invaluable.

Drek
11-20-2011, 07:00 AM
Med, great post. Illustrates the issues in our passing game very well. Tebow has real accuracy issues and the WRs aren't reliably picking him up when he puts a tough but catchable ball within reach. It is a shared issue to work on.

When you consider the mechanical issues Tebow has coupled with the lack of time he's spent with these WRs developing a rapport though it is somewhat excusable.

The real exciting part of this to me isn't going 4-1, though that is awesome, its seeing what Tebow will be coming out of camp next year, given an off-season to work with these guys, to refine his fundamentals, and to take the next step forward mentally.

He can be every bit the passer that Newton can if he fixes his footwork and throws off a good base reliably. He has better instincts as a runner and already has shown that late game "it" factor. You give him that level of passing ability and this could get real fun.

DENVERDUI55
11-20-2011, 07:05 AM
Tebow has worst accuracy for a starting qb in history of the game. It's horrible wr are always having to make great catch or leave their feet to make a catch.

TheReverend
11-20-2011, 07:06 AM
Med, great post. Illustrates the issues in our passing game very well. Tebow has real accuracy issues and the WRs aren't reliably picking him up when he puts a tough but catchable ball within reach. It is a shared issue to work on.

When you consider the mechanical issues Tebow has coupled with the lack of time he's spent with these WRs developing a rapport though it is somewhat excusable.

The real exciting part of this to me isn't going 4-1, though that is awesome, its seeing what Tebow will be coming out of camp next year, given an off-season to work with these guys, to refine his fundamentals, and to take the next step forward mentally.

He can be every bit the passer that Newton can if he fixes his footwork and throws off a good base reliably. He has better instincts as a runner and already has shown that late game "it" factor. You give him that level of passing ability and this could get real fun.

And to work with Elway. John explained why he hasn't spent that one on one time with him as letting the coaches coach in an extremely shortened off-season and not wanting to overwhelm a young player with too much information. He has said he's looking forward to having that chance this coming off-season and I think that will also pay significant dividends.

TheReverend
11-20-2011, 07:08 AM
Tebow has worst accuracy for a starting qb in history of the game. It's horrible wr are always having to make great catch or leave their feet to make a catch.

http://giftube.com/gifs/18792.gif

CEH
11-20-2011, 07:09 AM
Denver drafts Usain Bolt and he runs just go routes. Problem solved. CIDTB

vonqkilla
11-20-2011, 07:11 AM
To me its pretty clear he is throwing to where he knows he can avoid a pick early, vs where he knows it has to be to complete the pass late.

Just a matter of him having the confidence to play the same way the entire game. It's clear as day.

Early : don't screw up, or else
Late : be the man or else

If the front office endorsed him more, I think he wouldnt press so often early, and wouldn't miss ti a safe spot nearly as much as he does.

Each game there are 2 to 3 easy throws he misses that have you scratching your head. They are also safe throws, that are uninterceptable. He misses short or way outside away from defenders.

2 throws per game is roughly 10%...

errand
11-20-2011, 07:13 AM
Completely failed to address his point?

No one is saying Tebow doesn't need to work on his accuracy. We're saying that our receivers need to get a lot better too. Do you disagree?

So when you guys gonna start posting photographic proof that tebow can't hit the broadside of a barn sometimes?

When you guys start threads for wide receivers dropping the ball with photographic proof... and any time someone says "no that was a bad pass"...and you clowns attack them like somebody just called your kid a name.... it's pretty transparent to see what your agenda is

Mile High Mojoe
11-20-2011, 07:14 AM
Nothing absolves dropping catchable balls, but every team in the league drops about 20% of them or so. Sometimes its passes defensed, sometimes its degree of difficulty, and sometimes its just not being able to secure the catch. Drops are another story entirely.

Decker was the only WR to drop any catchable balls versus the Jets. However, the opposite is also true. He could have had a huge game if Tebow threw the ball more accurately. The QB/WR dynamic can never be truly seperated. They both depend on each other to make plays in the passing game.

I will tell you what I liked about Decker. He blocked like a madman against the Jets as well. Watch who stopped the punk Cromartie on that TD run ;D

Where does this 20% dropping catchable balls league wide stat come from? Its a good break down youíve laid out here but a single dropped pass in some tight games can be the difference between winning and losing so in measuring stats that canít be accounted for. A dropped pass or passes is more than a bad stat it's a confidence killer, a drive killer and a momentum killer. Especially in the offense in which the Broncos are currently implementing where pass attempts are at a premium with a QB whoís struggling in that area of the game.

I understand that WR's have drops but the good ones don't drop many balls and some never do in clutch situations, McCaffery and Smith didn't drop many balls, Rice rarely if ever dropped a ball. Decker is having a great season but his drops in this game canít be overemphasized or ignored for the game as a whole and he didnít help Tebow from a confidence level either.

KO5K
11-20-2011, 07:17 AM
So when you guys gonna start posting photographic proof that tebow can't hit the broadside of a barn sometimes?

When you guys start threads for wide receivers dropping the ball with photographic proof... and any time someone says "no that was a bad pass"...and you clowns attack them like somebody just called your kid a name.... it's pretty transparent to see what your agenda is

No one denies that Tebow is inaccuracte.

If someone started a thread with proof that Tebow was inaccurate, you'd get two or three replies stating "I know" before the thread fell of the first pace of 'Central Discussion' because everyone knows it and accepts it.

Perhaps their agenda is simply - Tebow is inaccurate, but not as inaccurate as people would lead you to believe and here's the evidence.

Bahshay
11-20-2011, 07:23 AM
Thanks Med. This post was fantastic.

As far as the accuracy problem, there is a simple solution: lets get him a receiver or two that make good adjustments on catchable balls. His completion percentage and our 3rd down percentage will both skyrocket.

broncogary
11-20-2011, 07:41 AM
[QUOTE=Mediator12;3381.
/
And for the Record, Tebow is amazing. Never seen anything like him. Most intriguing player I have seen in a decade. Still do not know what to make of him though. He just breaks the Mold, and its new territory to evaluate. Cam Newton is the same way though, except he has thrown for 400+ yards several times and put up 28+ points and his defense could not help him win games this year.[/QUOTE]

A for analysis, F for conclusion. You say he's the most intriguing player you've seen in a decade, and then say except for this guy that's been doing it since the start of the year? ???

gunns
11-20-2011, 07:48 AM
Where does this 20% dropping catchable balls league wide stat come from? Its a good break down youíve laid out here but a single dropped pass in some tight games can be the difference between winning and losing so in measuring stats that canít be accounted for. A dropped pass or passes is more than a bad stat it's a confidence killer, a drive killer and a momentum killer. Especially in the offense in which the Broncos are currently implementing where pass attempts are at a premium with a QB whoís struggling in that area of the game.

I understand that WR's have drops but the good ones don't drop many balls and some never do in clutch situations, McCaffery and Smith didn't drop many balls, Rice rarely if ever dropped a ball. Decker is having a great season but his drops in this game canít be overemphasized or ignored for the game as a whole and he didnít help Tebow from a confidence level either.

Jerry Rice had a good share of dropped passes when he first came into the league. He even had a good share when transitioning from Montana to Young. Rod Smith had a problem with dropsy. Dude, I think Mediator's post was very informative and makes a lot of sense. It basically is saying that Tebow and the WR's have some improving to do but that it's not as one sided, to either side, as some want to indicate it is. And for your information Decker isn't even ranked in the top 17 as far as dropped balls. I have no idea where he is ranked as that's as far as it goes and Royal is ranked 17.

Dedhed
11-20-2011, 07:55 AM
A for analysis, F for conclusion. You say he's the most intriguing player you've seen in a decade, and then say except for this guy that's been doing it since the start of the year? ???

It's news to me that Cam Newton has been winning since the beginning of the year.

broncogary
11-20-2011, 07:57 AM
Jerry Rice had a good share of dropped passes when he first came into the league. He even had a good share when transitioning from Montana to Young. Rod Smith had a problem with dropsy. Dude, I think Mediator's post was very informative and makes a lot of sense. It basically is saying that Tebow and the WR's have some improving to do but that it's not as one sided, to either side, as some want to indicate it is. And for your information Decker isn't even ranked in the top 17 as far as dropped balls. I have no idea where he is ranked as that's as far as it goes and Royal is ranked 17.

Mo Joe, don't get the EGIEDB going. :D

Dedhed
11-20-2011, 07:58 AM
This is what CAN happen if you talk about football, versus labeling like 6 year olds. Take some time, evaluate what really happens, grade it, analyze it and make your point.

This is why I came to the Mane in the first place. To provide analysis and make arguments based on the football part of things. Just because its almost a forgotten art around here, does not mean it should not be done.
I liked your breakdown, but even your analysis points to serious issues at WR.

You stated that league-wide 20% of "catchable" balls are dropped. Based on your analysis it appears that our WRs dropped 100% of "catchable" balls by your definition.

Unless I'm missing something, our WRs are 80% less effective when it comes to your "catchable" category.

OrangeSe7en
11-20-2011, 08:00 AM
To me its pretty clear he is throwing to where he knows he can avoid a pick early, vs where he knows it has to be to complete the pass late.

Just a matter of him having the confidence to play the same way the entire game. It's clear as day.

Early : don't screw up, or else
Late : be the man or else
If the front office endorsed him more, I think he wouldnt press so often early, and wouldn't miss ti a safe spot nearly as much as he does.

Each game there are 2 to 3 easy throws he misses that have you scratching your head. They are also safe throws, that are uninterceptable. He misses short or way outside away from defenders.

2 throws per game is roughly 10%...

In his post game press conference, he admitted that he was being coached to not turn the ball over.

Mile High Mojoe
11-20-2011, 08:06 AM
Jerry Rice had a good share of dropped passes when he first came into the league. He even had a good share when transitioning from Montana to Young. Rod Smith had a problem with dropsy. Dude, I think Mediator's post was very informative and makes a lot of sense. It basically is saying that Tebow and the WR's have some improving to do but that it's not as one sided, to either side, as some want to indicate it is. And for your information Decker isn't even ranked in the top 17 as far as dropped balls. I have no idea where he is ranked as that's as far as it goes and Royal is ranked 17.

Point taken, but just like in baseball timely hitting and in football timely catching or timely dropping in the point I was making here, really hurt the Broncos and Tebow. Iíve watched the games, make no mistake Tebow has been off target on some of his throws but when he gets them there in close games receivers must catch the ball, thatís they sole reason for them being on the field.

Rice in his career caught more money balls than anyone who ever played, the good ones do and the 2nd level guys donít. For Tebow right now heís still trying to get into a groove and itís not coming easy, the pass and the catch are a 50-50 play but now we need catches not drops.

Dr. Broncenstein
11-20-2011, 08:09 AM
I liked your breakdown, but even your analysis points to serious issues at WR.

You stated that league-wide 20% of "catchable" balls are dropped. Based on your analysis it appears that our WRs dropped 100% of "catchable" balls by your definition.

Unless I'm missing something, our WRs are 80% less effective when it comes to your "catchable" category.

This is our concern, dude. Not necessarily accurate but catchable. Seems like we traded a guy who caught nearly every catchable ball, in addition to uncatchable balls. Tebow is inconsistent. Wildly inaccurate at times. It would be great if his receivers hung onto a few suboptimally placed passes that manage to hit them in the hands.

OrangeSe7en
11-20-2011, 08:10 AM
I would like for Tebow to throw the deep ball to someone besides Decker. Decker has good speed but Thomas and Royal are both guys who could run in the 4.3s. Decker's always one step away from catching up to it. With Royal or Thomas, you have to think that they'd catch it.

Drek
11-20-2011, 08:34 AM
I would like for Tebow to throw the deep ball to someone besides Decker. Decker has good speed but Thomas and Royal are both guys who could run in the 4.3s. Decker's always one step away from catching up to it. With Royal or Thomas, you have to think that they'd catch it.

Decker being one step away is on Tebow, not Decker.

Now if it was Decker getting his hands on it but getting hit and failing to make the catch in the process or if he got tackled after bringing in a deep ball then you'd have reason to believe extra speed would make the difference (better separation), but Tebow when we go deep to Decker there is no real danger of a pick, the only requirement is for Tebow to drop the ball in the bucket. He does it better than many QBs, which is why this offensive coaching staff goes deep such a high frequency of the time.


I liked your breakdown, but even your analysis points to serious issues at WR.

You stated that league-wide 20% of "catchable" balls are dropped. Based on your analysis it appears that our WRs dropped 100% of "catchable" balls by your definition.

Unless I'm missing something, our WRs are 80% less effective when it comes to your "catchable" category.

Its called "sample size" boss. You need more than ~20 passes over 5 games to make any real definitive statements. Just like if Tebow goes out and throws for 300 next week, completing 25 of 30 passes (entirely possible FYI, he has the potential to find a groove and have a great passing game at any point) he isn't suddenly a great passer and it doesn't automatically refute the previous 5 games. Just adds an interesting wrinkle to the 6 game data set.

And I don't think Med is trying to act like our WRs aren't the problem at all, he's just highlighting the very significant difference between a catchable pass and a dropped ball. Prior to breaking his foot last week Schaub threw a ball that was tipped at the line and went sailing end over end like a punt. His WR caught it for a huge gain. It was in no way a good pass but no one was near the WR and the ball floated right to him so the end result was a very catchable ball that no one would have held against the WR if he hadn't fielded the "punt pass" that came to him.

OrangeSe7en
11-20-2011, 08:38 AM
Decker being one step away is on Tebow, not Decker.

Now if it was Decker getting his hands on it but getting hit and failing to make the catch in the process or if he got tackled after bringing in a deep ball then you'd have reason to believe extra speed would make the difference (better separation), but Tebow when we go deep to Decker there is no real danger of a pick, the only requirement is for Tebow to drop the ball in the bucket. He does it better than many QBs, which is why this offensive coaching staff goes deep such a high frequency of the time.



Its called "sample size" boss. You need more than ~20 passes over 5 games to make any real definitive statements. Just like if Tebow goes out and throws for 300 next week, completing 25 of 30 passes (entirely possible FYI, he has the potential to find a groove and have a great passing game at any point) he isn't suddenly a great passer and it doesn't automatically refute the previous 5 games. Just adds an interesting wrinkle to the 6 game data set.

And I don't think Med is trying to act like our WRs aren't the problem at all, he's just highlighting the very significant difference between a catchable pass and a dropped ball. Prior to breaking his foot last week Schaub threw a ball that was tipped at the line and went sailing end over end like a punt. His WR caught it for a huge gain. It was in no way a good pass but no one was near the WR and the ball floated right to him so the end result was a very catchable ball that no one would have held against the WR if he hadn't fielded the "punt pass" that came to him.

Sorry but this just isn't correct. Tebow is throwing the ball to open space, which allows the WR to go get it. This is where you see Decker's lack of burst.

Vine
11-20-2011, 08:44 AM
I wish I would have saved this on my dvr. I would like to be able to watch each of these passes again and see how much I agree with your analysis.

CEH
11-20-2011, 08:48 AM
Just curious, Where is the 2 page post of Tebow's college stats to counter the OP :wiggle:

Vine
11-20-2011, 09:00 AM
Its called "sample size" boss. You need more than ~20 passes over 5 games to make any real definitive statements. Just like if Tebow goes out and throws for 300 next week, completing 25 of 30 passes (entirely possible FYI, he has the potential to find a groove and have a great passing game at any point) he isn't suddenly a great passer and it doesn't automatically refute the previous 5 games. Just adds an interesting wrinkle to the 6 game data set.


When you add previous games, I think you get enough of a sample to conclude that Decker has some fairly ****ty hands.

Bronx33
11-20-2011, 09:08 AM
Call me crazy, but I kind of expect professional receivers to catch balls that hit them in the hands.


Thats just crazy talk!!!

vonqkilla
11-20-2011, 09:26 AM
In his post game press conference, he admitted that he was being coached to not turn the ball over.

Its priority #1 and all coaches coach that, the difference is that he's trying TO HARD not to throw picks and possibly make mistakes early, instead if trying to complete balls....

Until the game is on the line.

Rosario in Mia skinny post.

Vs jets :

Rosario missed early fired hard and away ensuring no interception early, floated shorter ensuring he gets hands on it late.

OrangeSe7en
11-20-2011, 09:32 AM
Its priority #1 and all coaches coach that, the difference is that he's trying TO HARD not to throw picks and possibly make mistakes early, instead if trying to complete balls....

Until the game is on the line.

Rosario in Mia skinny post.

Vs jets :

Rosario missed early fired hard and away ensuring no interception early, floated shorter ensuring he gets hands on it late.

I agree. Amazingly, the media is just now starting to wrap their minds around the formula that is allowing Denver to win. They'll acknowledge how the lack of turnovers is a huge part of that formula but then, in the same breath, they'll pile on when talking about how inaccurate Tebow is. It's like, try to connect the dots for once.

El Minion
11-20-2011, 09:42 AM
Football Outsiders: Tebow ranked 37th (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb), not including last Thursday.

<table class="stats" border="2" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td align="center">Player</td> <td align="center">Team</td> <td align="center">DYAR</td> <td align="center">Rk</td> <td align="center">YAR</td> <td align="center">Rk</td> <td align="center">DVOA</td> <td align="center">Rk</td> <td align="center">VOA</td> <td align="center">Passes</td> <td align="center">Yards</td> <td align="center">EYds</td> <td align="center">TD</td> <td align="center">FK</td> <td align="center">FL</td> <td align="center">INT</td> <td align="center">C%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="stats" border="2" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td>T.Tebow (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/24308/tim-tebow)</td> <td>DEN</td> <td align="Right">-132</td> <td align="Right">37</td> <td align="Right">-172</td> <td align="Right">38</td> <td align="Right">-27.8%</td> <td align="Right">37</td> <td align="Right">-32.9%</td> <td align="Right">122</td> <td align="Right">525</td> <td align="Right">456</td> <td align="Right">7</td> <td align="Right">3</td> <td align="Right">1</td> <td align="Right">1</td> <td align="Right">45.2%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Mile High Mojoe
11-20-2011, 10:06 AM
It's not rocket science as noted Dr Broncenstein if the ball is thrown to you and your a WR being paid to do nothing but catch a ball and it's a catchable ball catch the damn ball. There's no stat out there that can explain that simple truth away, none.

fontaine
11-20-2011, 10:55 AM
Well, Tebow and the OL/WRs deserve a lot of credit over the improvements they've made over the past few weeks.

Against Miami/Detroit some of Tebow's passes were yards away from their intended target. Some of it due to miscomunication but a lot of it because Tebow as hanging onto the ball too long and way off target with very little sense of anticipation.

Most of that has vastly improved. Over the last three games Tebow (by my count) has hung onto the ball over three seconds just twice and one of them was a designed play where he rolled out left until Royal was open for a TD against the raiders.

Everything else, from his anticipation, making progressions under three seconds, releasing the ball on time to his decision making has vastly improved including his center exchange and dropbacks.

Put it this way. His first two starts he would have more than a few passes that were yards away from the WRs. Now its down to a few inches. That sort of stuff comes over time and experience.

Drek
11-20-2011, 02:17 PM
Sorry but this just isn't correct. Tebow is throwing the ball to open space, which allows the WR to go get it. This is where you see Decker's lack of burst.

Tebow is trying to throw the ball to an open space, nothing says he hits it all the time. Its his responsibility to make an assessment on Decker's rate of speed and determine when and where he's got to place the football for Decker to catch it.

Decker's responsibilities on those routes consist of getting a step on his man and catching the ball when it comes to him. If the pass doesn't allow for him to do his job its because Tebow miscalculated.

Decker is creating the gap needed to get him the ball. Not by much but he's getting separation. Maybe Thomas or Royal can create a bit more and give Tim an easier window, but it is still on Tim to hit that pass as long as the window legitimately exists, and it does with Decker.

fontaine
11-20-2011, 03:38 PM
Its called "sample size" boss. You need more than ~20 passes over 5 games to make any real definitive statements. Just like if Tebow goes out and throws for 300 next week, completing 25 of 30 passes (entirely possible FYI, he has the potential to find a groove and have a great passing game at any point) he isn't suddenly a great passer and it doesn't automatically refute the previous 5 games. Just adds an interesting wrinkle to the 6 game data set..

I agree, but I do think we've seen enough of Rosario/Fells to say that they're not the kind of big bodied, athletic pass catching TEs that are such a big help to their QBs.

That and getting much better in the screen game when defenses get over aggressive with Tebow in the pocket are two things that desperately need to improve.

fontaine
11-20-2011, 04:05 PM
Well, Tebow and the OL/WRs deserve a lot of credit over the improvements they've made over the past few weeks.

Against Miami/Detroit some of Tebow's passes were yards away from their intended target. Some of it due to miscomunication but a lot of it because Tebow as hanging onto the ball too long and way off target with very little sense of anticipation.

Most of that has vastly improved. Over the last three games Tebow (by my count) has hung onto the ball over three seconds just twice and one of them was a designed play where he rolled out left until Royal was open for a TD against the raiders.

Everything else, from his anticipation, making progressions under three seconds, releasing the ball on time to his decision making has vastly improved including his center exchange and dropbacks.

Put it this way. His first two starts he would have more than a few passes that were yards away from the WRs. Now its down to a few inches. That sort of stuff comes over time and experience.

I just read this breakdown from FO which reaffirms what I've been noticing. Tebow is getting his passes out more quickly.

The challenge ofcourse, is going to come when he's asked to throw the ball more.


To get a better idea of some of the steps in a maturation of a quarterback, weíve logged every pass Tebow threw in his first six games of 2011 (last nightís Jets game is not included). Hey, if youíre going to pick a quarterback to time for his each and every pass, it never hurts to pick the one who throws fewer than 10 passes in some games.

What jumps out is just how different the Broncosí approach is now that they have truly tailored the offense to Tebowís comfort zone. That means fewer passes, more option runs, and much less decision making for Tebow to make from the pocket.

When Tebow first took over as quarterback, the Broncos appeared to simplify the offense, but it still was close to a standard pro-style offense. Tebow wasnít always accurate throwing the ball -- but even worse, he didnít look comfortable going through his progressions. In his relief appearance in Week 5, Tebowís average time from snap to release was 4.4 seconds and his median time of pass was 3.3 seconds. Admittedly, thatís a small sample size, but thatís off the charts in terms of holding the ball. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is generally considered to be a quarterback who holds the ball a long time. For 2010, Roethlisbergerís average time of pass was 2.9 seconds and his median time was 2.7.

Median and Average Time from Snap to Release (in Seconds) for Tim Tebow, through Week 10
Opponent Median Average
Week 5: SD 3.3 4.4
Week 7: MIA 2.7 3.0
Week 8: DET 2.3 2.8
Week 9: OAK 2.5 2.5
Week 10: KC 2.8 2.5

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2011/under-pressure-tebows-throws

Jay3
11-20-2011, 04:19 PM
Football Outsiders: Tebow ranked 37th (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb), not including last Thursday.

<table class="stats" border="2" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td align="center">Player</td> <td align="center">Team</td> <td align="center">DYAR</td> <td align="center">Rk</td> <td align="center">YAR</td> <td align="center">Rk</td> <td align="center">DVOA</td> <td align="center">Rk</td> <td align="center">VOA</td> <td align="center">Passes</td> <td align="center">Yards</td> <td align="center">EYds</td> <td align="center">TD</td> <td align="center">FK</td> <td align="center">FL</td> <td align="center">INT</td> <td align="center">C%</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="stats" border="2" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td>T.Tebow (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/24308/tim-tebow)</td> <td>DEN</td> <td align="Right">-132</td> <td align="Right">37</td> <td align="Right">-172</td> <td align="Right">38</td> <td align="Right">-27.8%</td> <td align="Right">37</td> <td align="Right">-32.9%</td> <td align="Right">122</td> <td align="Right">525</td> <td align="Right">456</td> <td align="Right">7</td> <td align="Right">3</td> <td align="Right">1</td> <td align="Right">1</td> <td align="Right">45.2%</td></tr></tbody></table>

Cool. And third in rushing.