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That One Guy
11-14-2011, 02:08 PM
Another week, more money to be made

Early Lines:

Jets (-4) @ Broncos
Raiders @ Vikes (PK!)
Bills @ Dolphins (-1)
Bengals @ Ravens (-7-8)
Jags @ Browns (PK)
Cowboys (-8-9) @ Wash
Panthers @ Lions (-7-8)
Seahawks @ Rams (-1)
Cards @ 9ers (-9 1/2 - 11)
Titans @ Falcons (-5 1/2 - 6)
Chargers @ Bears (-3 - 3 1/2)
Eagles @ Giants (-3)

I haven't looked at O/Us yet. The Eagles line is already pulled with news that Vick has broken ribs and the rest of the team seems hurt. I don't necessarily like the Giants too high but I'll keep an eye on what that gets reintroduced at. Broncos at home getting 4 is too much, I think. Raiders at Vikes is crazy to me. Raiders should have no problem winning that one. Bills being dogs to the Dolphins is surprising but the Bills haven't been playing lately while the Dolphins are picking it up. Tough call. I'm surprised Balt is being favored as much as they are. I'll most likely take Cincy there. I think Bears lay down a beating and cover the 3 easily. That's even considering newfound Oline problems (potentially) for Chicago.

Anyone else seeing anything?

vonqkilla
11-14-2011, 02:17 PM
Allday vs raiders D... Id stay away.

Bmore was horrible last week, tough, and Eli found reality. My only pick that came in was Denver. 1/3 sucks.

I like Chi vs SD at home. On paper and stats, screams blowout turnover fest win for bears.

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 11:07 AM
Allday vs raiders D... Id stay away.

Bmore was horrible last week, tough, and Eli found reality. My only pick that came in was Denver. 1/3 sucks.

I like Chi vs SD at home. On paper and stats, screams blowout turnover fest win for bears.

Just join me and never bet on the Ravens :)

I thought the Giants had it in 'em to go in there and win but it just wasn't to be. You just have to keep in mind that those are the best games to stay away from. Two solid teams means anything could happen.

I read something this morning about the SD/CHI game and how they know money is going to pile on the Bears. It makes me weary but I just can't see how SD hangs with the way they've been playing.

Oh, and thanks for the comments on the Vikes. I loved it at first but I'll think on it this week to see how my gut feels after it festers for a while. I can see the logic.

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 11:09 AM
Chefs line vs Pats is finally up at -14 1/2. I just can't see how KC gets even that close unless Falco just tears it up. I almost always stay away from spreads like that but I may bite...

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 09:43 PM
Wow, Broncos have already moved to -6. I don't even know what to think of such movement...

strafen
11-15-2011, 09:51 PM
Bears-Giants-Jags
Bears-Giant-Raiduhs

I didn't gamble last week. I'm glad I didn't. The Ravens stunk up the joinst!

This week I'm going overseas, but I like those three teams on a parlay...

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 09:55 PM
Bears-Giants-Jags
Bears-Giant-Raiduhs

I didn't gamble last week. I'm glad I didn't. The Ravens stunk up the joinst!

This week I'm going overseas, but I like those three teams on a parlay...

I'm waiting to see what the Line becomes on the Giants game. If it gets to a TD or above, I'm not really interested.

Bears have to be a popular pick this week. Jags seem like the right pick but, gosh, what a terrible game overall. Cribbs is a playmaker like they don't have on the Jax squad but Jax overall is more consistent.

I like the Raiders as well and expect that line to shift a tad before the game. I'm gonna look into Peterson and get a feel for him.

Overall, I agree, but the line for the Giants is what will make the difference. The bad play by the Eagles lately with an injured Vick piling on could make that spread silly.

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 10:49 PM
I made my first bet of the weekend. A 4 team, 1:1 teaser:

Broncos +18, Pats -2 1/2, Pack -2, Bears + 8 1/2

The only things I question are that I think Bears or Chargers win it decidedly and the possibility is there for a blowout by the Jets though I don't expect it. It'd literally take a Jets O fully clicking on the road after a very short week.

Popps
11-15-2011, 10:51 PM
Well, 1-1 last week. 3-1 so far at this game. I'll try another week...

Wow, I hate all of these lines.

I'll take:

Cinci +7
Detroit -7

I also can't see why on earth Buffalo shouldn't cover the 2 pts but I'm staying away after getting burned on that one last week.

I think Cinci will keep that game within a FG, judging by the way Baltimore has played as of late. I also think Detroit is fuming and will take it out on a Panther team that seems to have lost its mojo.

These are far from lead-pipe locks, though. Don't see much this week I like.

HAT
11-15-2011, 10:53 PM
Under 41 on Thursday night FTW.

I was expecting a line in the 36-37 range.

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 10:58 PM
Well, 1-1 last week. 3-1 so far at this game. I'll try another week...

Wow, I hate all of these lines.

I'll take:

Cinci +7
Detroit -7

I also can't see why on earth Buffalo shouldn't cover the 2 pts but I'm staying away after getting burned on that one last week.

I think Cinci will keep that game within a FG, judging by the way Baltimore has played as of late. I also think Detroit is fuming and will take it out on a Panther team that seems to have lost its mojo.

These are far from lead-pipe locks, though. Don't see much this week I like.

I'm glad it's not me. I've been so worried about the lines, I'm almost tempted to withdraw most of my money as soon as I hit my rollover requirement. These lines have ground me to a standstill.

One that I'm warming up to is Seahawks over the Rams. Jackson has played much better since he came back and the Rams aren't much improved. I'll have to look at Seattle on the road before I make that call though.

I think I'm really liking the Cinci more and more as I think about it. Cinci playing well, Balt laid an egg last week, and Balt having to cover a 7 point spread. No way I'd take the Cinci ML as I do expect it to be a good game but I think Cinci is not getting due respect here.

All my hunches early in the week are gut feelings though and I'll try to glance at stats and see if I'm accurate as the week goes on. No point in committing to a bet before final practices of the week are held.

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 11:00 PM
Under 41 on Thursday night FTW.

I was expecting a line in the 36-37 range.

I was thinking about that. I'm only getting 40 but still. I just worry what could happen in the great unknown that is our team right now. I could see this being a blowout either way though I expect it to be a 17-9 type game, one way or the other.

Popps
11-15-2011, 11:06 PM
I'm glad it's not me. I've been so worried about the lines, I'm almost tempted to withdraw most of my money as soon as I hit my rollover requirement. These lines have ground me to a standstill.

One that I'm warming up to is Seahawks over the Rams. Jackson has played much better since he came back and the Rams aren't much improved. I'll have to look at Seattle on the road before I make that call though.

I think I'm really liking the Cinci more and more as I think about it. Cinci playing well, Balt laid an egg last week, and Balt having to cover a 7 point spread. No way I'd take the Cinci ML as I do expect it to be a good game but I think Cinci is not getting due respect here.

All my hunches early in the week are gut feelings though and I'll try to glance at stats and see if I'm accurate as the week goes on. No point in committing to a bet before final practices of the week are held.

Yea, the Oakland game also feels like a sure thing... almost the way Buffalo getting 5 felt last week, which I why I'm staying away with my pretend bet here. :)

I actually think Cinci might be a better team right now. I've had the misfortune of seeing Baltimore play several times this year. They refuse to use Rice properly, Boldin is wasted in their offense... Flacco is streaky at best and the defense is not what it used to be. Seems like a solid play, but you know how this stuff goes...

That One Guy
11-15-2011, 11:31 PM
Last post in here before I head off to bed:

Anyone have thoughts on the Lions/Panthers under 47? I think after throwing it 63 times and 4 INTs, Lions may want to slow it down some. I think that DL gets after Newton (Lions average ~1 sack per game more than Titans and Titans had 5 against Newton) and Lions basically shut down Carolina. I could see Detroit covering with no issues but not airing it out like crazy folk either.

Thoughts?

Popps
11-16-2011, 12:02 AM
Detroit has not run the ball well lately. I'm not sure who's going to start for them this week but if it's Morris I'd assume they'll have to lean on the passing game again. Problem is, Stafford hasn't looked comfortable. You might be onto something with the under. I do think Detroit's defense will be out for blood this week.

Also, have a look at the Green Bay over under. I think it is 50. Tampa doesn't score much, and that might be an interesting under as well.

That One Guy
11-17-2011, 05:44 PM
Alright, my plays for tonight are Denver +6, Den/NYJ U 40, and Tebow -26 1/2 yds V Sanchez in rushing yards (That was at +190!)

That One Guy
11-17-2011, 09:43 PM
Alright, my plays for tonight are Denver +6, Den/NYJ U 40, and Tebow -26 1/2 yds V Sanchez in rushing yards (That was at +190!)

Fook me... I swear I read this last bet one way but when I went back and checked, it was Tebow pass+rush +26 1/2... No idea how I misread that. There goes all my winnings for this game. Fook!

That One Guy
11-19-2011, 09:42 AM
So the Bears are holding steady at 3 1/2 and are currently reflecting -105. Am I crazy thinking the Bears shouldn't even have competition this game? Bears QB is better, RB is better, line is better, WRs are pretty comparable, Bears DL is better, Bears CBs are better, Bears STs are better... and they're in Chicago.

I told my wife I'd pull most of my money for Christmas and I have a bunch of plays in but I'm fighting off the urge to pile on this one. Anyone have logic to say the Chargers even make this a game?

SouthStndJunkie
11-19-2011, 10:31 AM
I took these 5 games this week:

cin +7.0
oak -1.0
DET -7.0
CHI -3.5
NYG -4.5

That One Guy
11-19-2011, 10:46 AM
I took these 5 games this week:

cin +7.0
oak -1.0
DET -7.0
CHI -3.5
NYG -4.5

Cinci is one of mine that I'm worried about. I got excited for it when Ray Lewis was said to be out but then when AJ Green was ruled out, it made me weary again. Gotta ride with it at this point.

Not surprised to see Oak at -1 now. I'm actually laying off this one just because I want to be able to root against them for the division.

Giants is one I might get on as well. It's already up to -5 but I think it could/should keep going higher.

I'm hoping my U hits for DET but that's not a game where I'd actually put money on a side. He claims to not have any issues with the finger but I've seen throwing hand fingers take down Favre and Kurt Warner when they were on top of their games. DET should grind to a win there and go home.

phibacka31
11-19-2011, 05:03 PM
I'm laying a little money tonight. Just wanted OK/Baylor fans to let me know can/will Ok blow out Baylor?

I've got OK -16, K state +7 1/2, USC +16 1/2

That One Guy
11-19-2011, 06:43 PM
So the Chargers + 3 1/2 that I thought was absolutely not gonna hit?

Yeah, somebody accidentally hit the wrong box and am now on them.

I also bet the one I intended so at least there will be some reprieve if it hits.

Also got on Sea + 2 1/2, and NYG -5 to go with Bears -3 1/2

That One Guy
11-19-2011, 06:44 PM
And good luck phibacka, got my fingers crossed for ya.

That One Guy
11-20-2011, 12:30 PM
Can't believe I thought Carolina and DET might play this slow. The O/U for the game was almost cleared in the 1st half.

Oh well, some weeks up, some weeks down.

That One Guy
11-20-2011, 10:11 PM
Ehh.. A down week but still won $50ish.

I have a $25 teaser finishing out tomorrow with NE -2 1/2. The NE/KC game is all the way up to 16 1/2 and will probably keep going with everyone chasing their losses from today. At what point is it worth it to middle? I've already got a 14 point window but it's Palko...

Try to middle at more than a 2 TD window or just take my $25 and go away?

Popps
11-21-2011, 12:10 AM
Looks like I went 1-1 again. (win and a push). Won't be quitting my day job anytime soon.

I kind of thought Det/Car had a chance to be a slugfest as well. Geesh, probably top 10 highest scores this season.

That One Guy
11-21-2011, 05:40 AM
Looks like I went 1-1 again. (win and a push). Won't be quitting my day job anytime soon.

I kind of thought Det/Car had a chance to be a slugfest as well. Geesh, probably top 10 highest scores this season.

Yeah, you thought Lions would come out swinging. Definitely one of my worst reads of the season.

I had the double win on Denver but parlayed it all with yesterday's games where I went 2-2-1 so not much came of it. Giants last night was the capper to turn everything big. Doing parlays finally backfired.

I got back into this just because I was bored and then this became another $300+ weekend which is what I wanted to avoid. I think I'm giving my wife all my money for extra Christmas money and may pursue how you do it. Yesterday I took 6 games but I think I'll do better doing the best 2 games of the entire weekend from here on out or until my money finally runs out.