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View Full Version : FO says Broncos schedule toughest in the league through game 4


mkporter
10-04-2011, 05:11 PM
Football Outsiders noted in their DVOA numbers release this week that, according to their statistical model, Denver has had the most difficult schedule in the NFL so far. While it may not exactly reflect reality, it does provide a little more context to our play so far this season. Of course, even after starting to factor the difficulty of our schedule in, they still say we aren't very good. No surprise there.

Week 4 is when we introduce opponent adjustments into our formula for the first time. The hardest schedules so far have belonged to Denver and Oakland; the easiest have belonged to Tennessee, Atlanta, and the New York Giants. The Giants rank 32nd in schedule so far and first in schedule remaining
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-4-dvoa-ratings

tsiguy96
10-04-2011, 05:12 PM
weve played 2 top tier teams, a ****ty team and an average team. 4 weeks is not a really good sample size.

Eldorado
10-04-2011, 05:13 PM
What was it after week 3?

frerottenextelway
10-04-2011, 05:16 PM
13-3!

crush17
10-04-2011, 05:17 PM
Growing pains, get used to it.

DBroncos4life
10-04-2011, 05:18 PM
If Quinn was starting we would be 5-0 right now and if Tebow was starting we would be 6-0. :clown:

Dagmar
10-04-2011, 05:44 PM
The Raiders, Bengals and Titans?

The Raiders, Bengals and Titans??

campocorto
10-04-2011, 05:48 PM
**** Aaron Schatz.

mkporter
10-04-2011, 06:10 PM
What was it after week 3?

They didn't break it out in week 3. They don't start using it until week 4.

mkporter
10-04-2011, 06:11 PM
The Raiders, Bengals and Titans?

The Raiders, Bengals and Titans??

I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these teams makes the playoffs.

mkporter
10-04-2011, 06:12 PM
weve played 2 top tier teams, a ****ty team and an average team. 4 weeks is not a really good sample size.

Not really a good sample size of what?

TheReverend
10-04-2011, 06:16 PM
Doesn't hurt that we handed out three of the wins to the opposition, Schatz, you dumb ****.

Requiem
10-04-2011, 06:17 PM
Go get 'em Rev!

tsiguy96
10-04-2011, 06:22 PM
Not really a good sample size of what?

of the season to start saying whos played who? weve played the damn bengals and titans, how can someone say denver has had the hardest schedule yet?

bronco militia
10-04-2011, 06:26 PM
But we are getting our orange jerseys back!!!!!!

peacepipe
10-04-2011, 06:31 PM
of the season to start saying whos played who? weve played the damn bengals and titans, how can someone say denver has had the hardest schedule yet?Titans are playing some damn good football.

oubronco
10-04-2011, 06:33 PM
The Rams have played the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Redskins and Denver has played the hardest schedule?

I don't think so

TheReverend
10-04-2011, 06:34 PM
Go get 'em Rev!

To Schatz:

http://i52.tinypic.com/ncf390.gif

TheReverend
10-04-2011, 06:36 PM
Over 27% of our collective opponents wins have come from...



gasp...



us.

mkporter
10-04-2011, 06:38 PM
of the season to start saying whos played who? weve played the damn bengals and titans, how can someone say denver has had the hardest schedule yet?

No one is saying that it is the definitive answer, but as they note in the article, there is statistic significance to their numbers after 4 weeks. Also, the Titan have been playing pretty well this year, and the Bengals aren't that bad either.

mkporter
10-04-2011, 06:44 PM
Over 27% of our collective opponents wins have come from...



gasp...



us.

Explains Carolinas 29th ranked schedule nicely. Obviously the fact that our opponents have played us gets factored in, but they've each also played three other teams, too. Oakland, who got one of their two wins from us, has the second hardest schedule so far according to their analysis.

Ugly Duck
10-04-2011, 06:49 PM
Doesn't hurt that we handed out three of the wins to the opposition, Schatz, you dumb ****.

Thats what makes it the toughest schedule....

OBF1
10-04-2011, 06:51 PM
This thread makes me feel..... well.... Like I wasted my time

TonyR
10-04-2011, 07:06 PM
Sagarin has us at 2nd most difficult.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm

Pony Boy
10-04-2011, 07:08 PM
Well one good thing is 25% of the season is over already....... we won't have to suffer much longer

Drek
10-04-2011, 07:08 PM
And this is why Football Outsiders is a waste of bandwidth.

I saw FO and thought Fox or Elway tried playing that card. Looked forward to that thread. This one is just meh.

TonyR
10-04-2011, 07:12 PM
And this is why Football Outsiders is a waste of bandwidth.

Why? Sagarin largely agrees.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm

extralife
10-04-2011, 08:07 PM
man, you guys are hilarious. these guys do the same thing every week of every year, constantly churning out numbers relating to the game of football. but now, magically, their forumals are invalidated and they are clearly part of the GRAND CONSPIRACY to KEEP THE BRONCOS DOWN

probably has something to do with TEBOW too, the assholes!!!!@

NFLBRONCO
10-04-2011, 08:09 PM
I think its most difficult from now on.

Dagmar
10-04-2011, 08:09 PM
man, you guys are hilarious. these guys do the same thing every week of every year, constantly churning out numbers relating to the game of football. but now, magically, their forumals are invalidated and they are clearly part of the GRAND CONSPIRACY to KEEP THE BRONCOS DOWN

probably has something to do with TEBOW too, the a-holes!!!!@

http://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/gallery/files/3/7/2/3/9/lol_wut_thumb.jpg

houghtam
10-04-2011, 08:15 PM
No one is saying that it is the definitive answer, but as they note in the article, there is statistic significance to their numbers after 4 weeks. Also, the Titan have been playing pretty well this year, and the Bengals aren't that bad either.

4 games is a horrible sample size for a 16 game season. Hell, 40 games isn't even enough of a sample size in a 162 game season in baseball. Waste of time.

We're a quarter of the way through what is going to be a long season. This will just be another thing "EFX" will point to when Orton finishes the season with more INTs than Cutler playing against a 20 man defense.

HAT
10-04-2011, 08:27 PM
4 games is a horrible sample size for a 16 game season.

So is 15. Anything that tries to judge strength of schedule before January is worthless.

Archedamian
10-04-2011, 09:49 PM
13-3!

I just about choked when I read this. Hilarious!

Agamemnon
10-05-2011, 01:05 AM
We've had the hardest schedule so far? Really? Hilarious!

ol#7
10-05-2011, 01:09 AM
Looked at calendar...not April 1. Looked for follow up smiley face posts...dont see it.

Am I missing something? The three most winnable games this team is going to have were in the first 4 weeks?

Our schedule is absolutely brutal from here on. This is elusivekyleorton bad level analysis.

cutthemdown
10-05-2011, 01:49 AM
The video of the giant player chucking the ball at the guy is classic. At least we aren't getting throttled like GB did to us every week. Hell we are good enough to maybe have a couple big wins people dont expect. Like maybe Chargers or something. Weird, people so pissed, the Broncos so bad for so long I have gotten numb. Until we are good enough to be playing for the playoffs, or a playoff game I am sort of numb to the whole thing. Just glad Miller looks good.

jhns
10-05-2011, 05:58 AM
We just finished the easy part of the schedule. If that was the hardest in the league, the league screwed us. In reality, it isn't close to the hardest. Look at the schedules...

We do probably have one of the hardest when looking at the entire schedule.

TonyR
10-05-2011, 06:02 AM
4 games is a horrible sample size for a 16 game season.

Yes, but that's all they have to go on right now. The models will get "better" as the season goes on. Regardless, these models are better and more objective than a bunch of people's biased opinions on a message board.

TonyR
10-05-2011, 06:04 AM
We just finished the easy part of the schedule.

So the Green Bay Packers are on the "easy part of the schedule" according to your never ending well of logic?

jhns
10-05-2011, 06:07 AM
So the Green Bay Packers are on the "easy part of the schedule" according to your never ending well of logic?

Playing one good team makes it the hardest? If you were to break the schedule into quarters, what would you say the easy part is?

Do you really have to act so retarded all the time?

Drek
10-05-2011, 07:06 AM
Why? Sagarin largely agrees.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm

Would it make you feel better if I had said "statistical analysis of the NFL from an outsider's perspective is a complete waste of bandwidth?"

Because it holds true regardless of who does it.

These guys don't have the play calls. Most of them don't even have real game tape, they just have broadcast camera angles. You can't tell **** from that. Even then you're trying to generate a statistical model based around a 22 variable equation each and every time to try and do something.

They only compound their wild inaccuracies when they try making statements after only a few weeks of play.

Its horrible use of statistics and its the kind of thing that makes people distrust any form of statistical analysis.

TonyR
10-05-2011, 07:15 AM
Playing one good team makes it the hardest? If you were to break the schedule into quarters, what would you say the easy part is?

I realize the math here may be above your pay grade, but fwiw if you take current Sagarin ratings and break our schedule up into quarters using the average ranking of our four opponents in each quarter it stacks up like this:
1st quarter - 11.00 (most difficult on average)
4th quarter - 13.50
2nd quarter - 15.25
3rd quarter - 18.75 (least difficult on average)

jhns
10-05-2011, 07:26 AM
I realize the math here may be above your pay grade, but fwiw if you take current Sagarin ratings and break our schedule up into quarters using the average ranking of our four opponents in each quarter it stacks up like this:
1st quarter - 11.00 (most difficult on average)
4th quarter - 13.50
2nd quarter - 15.25
3rd quarter - 18.75 (least difficult on average)

LOL @ sagrin ratings being your defense. Especially sagrin ratings with only a quarter of the season played...

So you say the first part is the most difficult because we played a 4-0 team but the second quarter, where we play a 4-0 team, is the third hardest? Your rating system doesn't seem to agree with your earlier "logic"...

jhns
10-05-2011, 07:33 AM
Why? Sagarin largely agrees.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm

So, lets break this down a little. I just looked up one of our opponents schedules. Your ranking has them in thr middle of the pack, well behind our schedule. This team is the Packers. Their schedule so far has bern us, NO, Carolina, and Chicago... I mean, really?

Chicago, four spots behind us. They have played Atlanta, NO, GB, and Carolina... These are the first two schedules I looked up and they show the rankings are a joke.

TonyR
10-05-2011, 07:38 AM
So, lets break this down a little. I just looked up one of our opponents schedules. Your ranking has them in thr middle of the pack, well behind our schedule. This team is the Packers. Their schedule so far has bern us, NO, Carolina, and Chicago... I mean, really?

Wow, you're clearly not very bright. Our schedule is currently ranked as more difficult largely because Green Bay and Tennesse, two of our opponents, are ranked higher than all of Green Bay's opponents. Sorry to break it to you but that's how the rankings stack up right using a complicated statisctical model. These ranking will change, and get "better", as the season progresses. But currently the model's unbiased, objective rankings are far superior to yours.

jhns
10-05-2011, 07:41 AM
Wow, you're clearly not very bright. Our schedule is currently ranked as more difficult largely because Green Bay and Tennesse, two of our opponents, are ranked higher than all of Green Bay's opponents. Sorry to break it to you but that's how the rankings stack up right using a complicated statisctical model. These ranking will change, and get "better", as the season progresses. But currently the model's unbiased, objective rankings are far superior to yours.

LOL @ Tennessee being better than NO and Chicago...

But they are ranked higher! Yeah, proving what a joke your rankings are. Good argument!

And what about Chicagos schedule, which I edited in right after? Look at that and explain how GB is better than GB...

TonyR
10-05-2011, 07:44 AM
LOL @ Tennessee being better than NO and Chicago...


Better than Chicago, yes. NO, no. My mistake on the latter.

But again, what's so difficult to understand? The average ranking of our 4 opponents is currently lower (lower being better) than theirs. Seriously, is this really so hard to figure out? There's nothing to argue here. You're arguing with a complex statistical model that's smarter than you. And probably better looking, too...

jhns
10-05-2011, 07:49 AM
Better than Chicago, yes. NO, no. My mistake on th latter.

But again, what's so difficult to understand? The average ranking of our 4 opponents is currently lower (lower being better) than theirs. Seriously, is this really so hard to figure out? There's nothing to argue here. You're arguing with a complex statistical model that's smarter than you. And probably better looking, too...

The rankings that say our schedule is easier than playing GB, NO, ATL, and CAR.

Ten is not better than Chicago...

Your rankings are almost as dumb as you.

TonyR
10-05-2011, 07:57 AM
The rankings that say our schedule is easier than playing GB, NO, ATL, and CAR.

Ten is not better than Chicago...

Your rankings are almost as dumb as you.

OMG you're as dumb as a ****ing rock. Let me explain again. I could break out the detail for you but you're not worth the effort.

Green Bay's average opponent in weeks 1-4 has a current ranking of 15.25.
Denver's average opponent in weeks 1-4 has a current ranking of 11.00.
Ergo, Green Bay's average opponent is "less difficult", Denver's "more difficult". Now why don't you go back to your coloring books and try to stay within the lines.

jhns
10-05-2011, 08:17 AM
OMG you're as dumb as a ****ing rock. Let me explain again. I could break out the detail for you but you're not worth the effort.

Green Bay's average opponent in weeks 1-4 has a current ranking of 15.25.
Denver's average opponent in weeks 1-4 has a current ranking of 11.00.
Ergo, Green Bay's average opponent is "less difficult", Denver's "more difficult". Now why don't you go back to your coloring books and try to stay within the lines.

Your post doesn't even make a little bit of sense. I didn't even mention GBs schedule in that post. I mentioned Chicagos schedule. You are calling me dumb as you prove you can't read for the tenth time in this thread.

Your rankings say we have played a harder schedule than Chicago. Only an idiot thinks that is true. Do you need me to slow this down for you even more or are you just going to keep making an ass out of yourself?

mkporter
10-05-2011, 08:26 AM
You guys are too ****ing funny. You'll note I didn't make the argument that this means we are actually a really good team. You'll also note that FO doesn't think we are a good team either. They have us ranked 25th. That seems about right.

The point was that maybe this wasn't the easiest part of our schedule like everyone keeps repeating. We still have several bad to mediocre teams to play (MIA, 2xKC, Min, Chi).

TonyR
10-05-2011, 08:28 AM
Your rankings say we have played a harder schedule than Chicago. Only an idiot thinks that is true.

LOL So you're calling a computer model "an idiot"?!?

Denver's average opponent ranking: 11.00

Chicago's average opponent ranking: 11.75

Only marginally different, driven primarily by Atlanta's (20) and Carolina's (23) low ratings. Argue with the math and statistics, not me. It's not my model.

TonyR
10-05-2011, 08:31 AM
You guys are too ****ing funny. You'll note I didn't make the argument that this means we are actually a really good team. You'll also note that FO doesn't think we are a good team either. They have us ranked 25th. That seems about right.

The point was that maybe this wasn't the easiest part of our schedule like everyone keeps repeating. We still have several bad to mediocre teams to play (MIA, 2xKC, Min, Chi).

I completely agree. My point as well. Sagarin has us at 22, and we're only that high because of our strength of schedule. I also realize arguing with jhns is pointless...

jhns
10-05-2011, 08:33 AM
LOL So you're calling a computer model "an idiot"?!?

Denver's average opponent ranking: 11.00

Chicago's average opponent ranking: 11.75

Only marginally different, driven primarily by Atlanta's (20) and Carolina's (23) low ratings. Argue with the math and statistics, not me. It's not my model.

You are the one using the retarded model as proof of something and you tell me to argue with it. I would bet whoever made that chart also would tell you it isn't close to being accurate this early in the season. I don't see them here trying to defend it. Only you are.

Chicagos schedule makes ours look like a joke and your little rankings say it is easier...

orng&blu
10-05-2011, 11:21 AM
Football Outsiders noted in their DVOA numbers release this week that, according to their statistical model, Denver has had the most difficult schedule in the NFL so far. While it may not exactly reflect reality, it does provide a little more context to our play so far this season. Of course, even after starting to factor the difficulty of our schedule in, they still say we aren't very good. No surprise there.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2011/week-4-dvoa-ratings

I cannot believe how ingrained the rationalizations and excuses are around here these days. People spend way more time and energy finding ways to excuse the sorry state of the broncos. Its gone WAY past sad into the pathetic stage.

mkporter
10-05-2011, 11:30 AM
I cannot believe how ingrained the rationalizations and excuses are around here these days. People spend way more time and energy finding ways to excuse the sorry state of the broncos. Its gone WAY past sad into the pathetic stage.

I cannot believe how ingrained the desire is to be unwilling to accept even the slightest bit of positivity about our team these days. People spend way more time and energy finding ways to repeat the same tired complaints about the sorry state of the broncos. Its gone WAY past sad into the pathetic stage.

Also, no one made a single rationalization or excuse in this thread. Most people just jumped in crowing about how we suck, and it isn't possible we had the hardest schedule. The reality is that both statements could be true. That is what this statistical analysis says.

You guys are too ****ing funny. You'll note I didn't make the argument that this means we are actually a really good team. You'll also note that FO doesn't think we are a good team either. They have us ranked 25th. That seems about right.

The point was that maybe this wasn't the easiest part of our schedule like everyone keeps repeating. We still have several bad to mediocre teams to play (MIA, 2xKC, Min, Chi).

mkporter
10-05-2011, 11:36 AM
Playing one good team makes it the hardest? If you were to break the schedule into quarters, what would you say the easy part is?


Which quarter would you say is the hardest?

BroncoBen
10-05-2011, 12:47 PM
Really..? Find it hard to believe..